Ranking Twins Players Age 25 and Under: Part 1 (6-10)

[DocBauer]

This is a very fun and interesting exercise. Really like the idea. (But I SO want to include Jeffers and Duran in this list, but I understand the idea). But I'm going to address this list in reverse order.

6] Alex Kiriloff: When does this guy get a break?! His wrist seems to FINALLY be healthy. He's grown as a hitter in regard to K/BB and he's gaining confidence and comfort and starting to really drive the ball again and hurts his shoulder diving for a ball. Ugh! The good news is it wasn't the wrist! Hard to not put him in the top 5, but we'll see how this shakes out.

7] Louis Varland: Second time I've read an OP in the past week that references performing at some sort of poor level. Frankly, I'm frustrated and disappointed in these kind of comments. He might not have set the world on fire in 2022, but he was solid, in some tough situations and pitching against some good teams, and was showing some real potential in his 5 starts. This season he's made 10 starts so far. And while I don't have access to all of them looking online...(maybe I'm not sure where to look)...I can easily see his last 5. And I have memory of watching most of his games. As a rookie, he was solid if not good for his first 7 games, maintaining his 10K per totals. On 5-26 he went 6 IP and only allowed 3R against Toronto. His next start was against the Astros...perhaps his best ML start to date... and threw 7 SHUTOUT innings. For whatever reason, he really lost command over his next 3 starts that have skewed his 2023 numbers to this point. And it's very fair to state his first few games back at AAA were disappointing. Was that him frustrated or working on some things as he was suddenly bitten by control issues? IDK. But he's looked much more like his old self lately. I'm just not sure "his performance has yet to warrant the team promoting him" might be outdated. But perhaps I'm just being overly sensitive because I have a lot of faith in what I've seen so far.

8] SWR: Full confession, I knew him by name only and what I read when he was brought in via the Berrios trade. And I was totally willing to make excuses for a lousy performance when acquired due to youth, as well as the whole Olympic ordeal that messed with his whole 2021 season. Despite his youth, and high prospect ranking, I kept reading reports about low velocity and maybe not having a K pitch. And I started to wonder what made him such a highly touted prospect to begin with? And then he had a really nice 2022 at AA and AAA and I began to buy in. But until a few recent starts and "extended" relief appearances with an opener, he's been very disappointing.  I understand how young he is, and there's still potential, but who is he? Right now I have more confidence in the slightly older Festa at AA than I do in SWR. 

9] Jose Miranda: Reports were the Twins really liked him and were just waiting for a breakout for his contact skills to match power and drive. We got that in 2021. And we got it for most of 2022 after a slow start. I never worried about a rookie wearing down a bit to end a disappointing season. And then he worked really hard in the offseason to build muscle, lose fat, get better conditioned for 2023. And despite having a bum shoulder, he raked in ST while getting reading to play 3B opening day. And since then, all we've seen is WEAK contact, not strong contact. Is it mental? Is it physical and the shoulder has been much more a worry and the ST numbers were an illusion? Call it a hunch, but I believe a bum shoulder has been a bigger issue than reported. And that leads to pressure and pressing. Natural contact ability and power should lead to production with health, confidence, and just a solid AB approach, which Miranda had previously. I'd bet FOR him vs against with a mental and physical re-set, BUT, I'm uncertain where he fits in as the future lineup has so many variables at 3B/1B/DH. I'd love him in those roles, but even if we remove Polanco out of the equation, we still have Lewis,  Lee, (maybe not quite ready yet), Julien, Correa, and AK in the INF. IF Lewis moves to the OF, we still MIGHT HAVE the issue of how to make Buxton a POTENTIAL part time OF and trying to "find" the adaptation he needs mentally and physically to BE a DH. IF Buck can do what others have done, albeit later in their careers, he can be POTENT. But it changes the dynamic of the rest of the roster. And maybe Miranda just doesn't fit in with the other talent available and Buxton maybe/hopefully adapts..

10] Austin Martin: Is he the new lighting rod, lol? I love and hate all of the discussion with this guy. When he was acquired in 2021, some had him in the Twins lineup for 2022 already. Why? Because he was a top draft choice and a top 100 prospect? The kid didn't play in 2020. And then I read opinions how the Twins have almost ruined him. LOL! He didn't play for a whole year. The Jays still jumped him straight to AA, and as a SS to boot! A position he had seldom played before. So the Twins kept him there "to see". And while his BA slipped some, his OB was very close and his OPS slipped some. His SLG% was poor for BOTH organizations. But the Twins are being blamed for trying to find a little more pop/power out of him? What team doesn't try to find a little more pop/power out of a prospect? 

The simple truth is Martin hasn't offered up results becoming of his draft status so far. He's shown contact ability,  OB ability, and speed. The Twins have admitted he's a natural for the OF. And they are working him primarily there now. And he finished 2022 strong when he just went back to what felt natural. And he had a great AFL. Unfortunately, he had a series of injuries to begin this year. And I'm encouraged by what he's done so far. But even in SSS hitting .268 at AAA with a .381 OB sounds great! But a .392 SLG and overall. 773 OPS tells me he's going to be eaten up by ML pitching.

I'm NOT a Martin hater. I love the BA/OB contact ability and speed XB potential he offers. But other than his AFL results, he's an average "hitter" at the mild level with a below SLG %. I hope he's a big time AVG hitter with a high OB% and steals a bunch of bases and pops 30 doubles, a few triples, and double digit HR. I have hope!

But if you have an average BA and next to no power at AAA, how do I expect your game to play at the ML level?

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Pretty bold to put Julien, Wallner and Duran ahead of Kirilloff. Assuming Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis are also in that list it doesn't leave room for Jenkins.

Kirlloff's current (and frequent) designation plays a huge factor.

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Miranda is nice Kiriloff insurance.   His value is already depressed.  Kiriloff has struggled to remain healthy for a full year.  He would just be filling the Gallo position.  If 1 or both get injured, can have Williams Prato or another prospect come up.  

 

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If he's raking in AAA next year, he's more valuable as a trade piece, IMO....but you might be right this off season. Not sure what his value is at this point......but while I like depth, I like better players even more, and this team needs better RP and more pitching prospects.....but I don't see them dealing him unless he's part of a bigger package.

Miranda turns 26 next June, if he isn't raking in AAA next year, he career with the Twins should be done unless he will accept a minor league deal.

Williams turns 27 in November, so if the Twins don't bringing him up this year I don't see him ever being in their plans. Prato also turns 26 prior to next season, so he also seems like a guy they will only turn to as a last resort.

[jorgenswest]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd trade Miranda this off season. I see no realistic spot for him going forward......

They will likely have 18 players with at least 100 PAs by the end of the season. They need players on option like Miranda that can step in when the opportunity comes. His wRC+ of 156 and 162 in 2021 are real and so much better than many of the AAA players people are advocating for from St. Paul. His 2022 rookie season was solid. His 2023 shoulder trouble was real and we have no idea how that changed his swing. I would not sell low. He is much more valuable as one of the 16-18 position players they will need next year,

[roger]

19 hours ago, gman said:

I'd agree with the trade part except it would definitely be trading low. But if he doesn't have a position to play its also kind of hard to raise that value. Its good thing, but it's also too bad to be in a position of trading seemingly talented young players. i assume swap for pitching.

I think the Twins need to know who Miranda is.  Is he the player who hit like an all star in 2021 and 2022?  Or is he the player who couldn't hit a lick this year?  Unless someone offers them a deal which values him like the old Miranda, they will likely do nothing over the winter.  Then if he returns to the player of old, they can move him next summer.  The fact is he is average at best in the field and blocked by AK and Lewis at his positions.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

They will likely have 18 players with at least 100 PAs by the end of the season. They need players on option like Miranda that can step in when the opportunity comes. His wRC+ of 156 and 162 in 2021 are real and so much better than many of the AAA players people are advocating for from St. Paul. His 2022 rookie season was solid. His 2023 shoulder trouble was real and we have no idea how that changed his swing. I would not sell low. He is much more valuable as one of the 16-18 position players they will need next year,

All good points

[twinzcynic]

On 8/14/2023 at 3:53 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Given there have been almost none highly ranked, I'm not sure I get your point at the end. SWR and Balazovich are the only ones I can recall any national pundits liking.....it's also been 7 years. It takes 3-4 years for a pitcher to make the majors, so, what, 3-4 drafts so far? How many legit starting pitchers would you expect in 3-4 years of drafts? 1? 2 at most?

Ah yes, I too have forgotten about Romero, Gonsalves,  and Graterol. Considering one of the selling points of this front office is that a pitching pipeline was promised, expecting more than 1 mid-level starter is completely valid. The Twinz media has done a great job not covering the short comings of said pipeline, and the fans are more than happy to parrot the talking points.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, twinzcynic said:

Ah yes, I too have forgotten about Romero, Gonsalves,  and Graterol. Considering one of the selling points of this front office is that a pitching pipeline was promised, expecting more than 1 mid-level starter is completely valid. The Twinz media has done a great job not covering the short comings of said pipeline, and the fans are more than happy to parrot the talking points.

None of those were drafted by this front office.