Twins Young Position Players Deserve Your Attention

[Cody Schoenmann]

With veteran players not performing well, most of the Twins offense is getting manufactured by young homegrown talent. It's time they get their flowers. 

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

In the workplace, inexperience often gets viewed as a flaw or a hurdle that those forced to deal with the inexperienced party at hand bear with until milestones get reached, and sustainable progress is made. Once that person reaches a certain threshold of competence, they are then thrust into action and forced to trust their instincts while sharpening the complex skills and concepts they, in the grand scheme of things, very recently learned.

Fortunately, in most career paths, mistakes, even on a large scale, are forgiven, and if it takes months or even years for one to feel gratified with how they perform in their career of choice, that is perfectly fine. 

Unfortunately, the margin for error on a division title-seeking professional sports team is meager. If one makes a mistake, especially on a large scale, they will receive public scrutiny and have that moment dangled over their head for all time.

Remember Bill Buckner or, dare I say, Gary Anderson?

This level of daunting expectations mixed with unrelenting pressure would make most people fold. Yet, many fanbases expect professional athletes to keep a sense of composure and, if something goes wrong, pick themselves up by their bootstraps and focus on what is ahead.

Possessing this specific mind frame is particularly expected of the veteran players on the team.

The Twins' best position players entering the 2023 season were expected to be Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco, and off-season acquisitions Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, and Christian Vázquez.

Despite playing different positions and having categorically different roles on the team, all of these players, except Miranda, shared one thing: veteran status. 

Traditionally, veteran players on a team tend to bring a sense of consistency that counteracts the volatile nature of younger players. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for the 2023 Twins. The opposite has been the case.

Here is how much wRC+, which is the most comprehensive rate statistic for hitters as it takes into account the weight of offensive action and then adjusts them to the specific ballpark the action took place in, the eight veterans listed above have accumulated:

(Note: League average for wRC+ is 100)

• Buxton (99)
• Correa (90)
• Kepler (109)
• Polanco (96)
• Farmer (92)
• Gallo (100)
• Taylor (89)
• Vázquez (66) 

Of the eight veterans listed, only one has generated an above-league-average wRC+, with Kepler creating 9% more runs than the league average. 

In a microlens, if someone were to state that at the 70% point of the season, seven out of eight of the players that were expected to be primary contributors were performing at a below-league-average rate, one would reasonably assume that the team is also performing at a below-league-average rate and has little to no chance at making the postseason. 

Oddly enough, the Twins are 59-54, in first place, and hold a 4.5 game lead over the second-place Cleveland Guardians.

How has this happened?

Initially, much of the credit needs to get handed to the Twins pitching staff. According to Fangraphs, the Twins have the second-best rotation in Major League Baseball by fWAR, accumulating 11.8 fWAR up to this point, and the eighteenth-best bullpen in baseball by fWAR, getting 2.5 fWAR to this point. 

Combining the rotation and bullpen, the Twins have the third-best pitching staff in baseball, accumulating 14.2 fWAR, which ranks just behind the Phillies with 16.6 fWAR and the Mariners with 15.2 fWAR. 

The Twins pitching staff has been incredible all season, particularly their starting rotation of Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda.

With this in mind, what other faction of the 2023 Twins deserves the second-highest amount of credit? The answer lies within the Twins young position players.

The Twins young position players, contrary to the struggling veterans on the team, have stepped up to the occasion and helped this team find their footing offensively. 

The offensive renaissance the 2023 Twins desperately needed has been headlined by Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner.

To do the same practice as earlier, here is how much wRC+ the five young players listed above have accumulated this season:

• Jeffers (151)
• Julien (151)
• Kirilloff (124)
• Lewis (131)
• Wallner (165)

Unlike seven of the eight veterans listed earlier, all five young position players perform well above league average, highlighted by Julien creating 51% more runs than the league average in a relatively large sample size. 

Some of these statistics are bloated, as Wallner and Lewis have generated relatively low sample sizes this season. Even so, there has been little to no reason to suspect that they won't maintain an at least above-league-average rate of production. 

Small sample size aside, the Twins five young hitters have undoubtedly risen to the occasion and contributed game-to-game, especially when it felt like none of the veterans could.

Not only are the Twins young position players performing well, but they are also stepping up in high-leverage moments and showing signs of possessing the perceived to be ever-important yet not real clutch gene. 

Lewis hit a game-tying single while facing the Astros on May 29 and against the Rays on June 7, Julien hit a game-tying home run versus the Royals on July 3, and Wallner most recently hit a walk-off home run off Paul Sewald of the Diamondbacks on August 7. 

Another recent distinguished moment was witnessing Jeffers, a catcher, hit two home runs on Joe Mauer's Twins Hall of Fame ceremony. Jeffers has finally caught on and is undoubtedly a top-five, likely top-three, catcher in the American League. Jeffers hitting two home runs that night could be perceived as a symbolic passing of the torch from the last Twins star catcher to the next.  

As the Twins march towards the end of the season, it has become more evident than ever that the Twins young homegrown position players are not only the team's primary run producers but also the heart and soul of this year's team on the offensive side. These young players deserve a tremendous amount of appreciation for their services, and hopefully, they will get rewarded for their efforts with a division title. 

What is happening with Jeffers, Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, and Wallner at the Major League level feels genuinely special. And with other young position players yet to reach the Majors in Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Yunior Severino, and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. waiting in the wings at Triple-A St. Paul, the Twins future position player-wise warrants genuine optimism. 

Do the Twins young position players deserve significant appreciation? Whose future are you looking forward to the most? Comment below.

 

 

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[Dave Borton]

Well researched and written Cody.

Quote

Do the Twins young position players deserve significant appreciation?

Absolutely. Appreciation and more playing time.

Were I a prospect/rookie, I would take inspiration from rubbing elbows with a vet carrying a 92 wRC+. Farmer.

Before getting hit w/a FB to the mouth, Farmer was hitting .223. He required stitches for the laceration, 4 root canals, wiring in his mouth, and lays out a month. 

Since that injury, Farmer has raised his BA to .247 and is fielding .985 as a super utility played at 3B, SS, LF, 1B, and 2B.

Hats off.

[Trov]

We have some young guys that hopefully will continue to perform for years to come.  I do always have caution because sometimes the rookie year is the best because pitchers adjust and the player does not.  For the top prospect guys you expect the adjustments, but does not always happen. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Excellent article. Thanks Cody.

Yes, the Twins have had significant contributions from these young players. It has certainly been a delight to see. 

The future could be very interesting. These players are the reason I'm not so much on the 'fire the front office' bandwagon. 

[mikelink45]

I am always looking for prospect advancement and I think our new core is showing how it can work.  What is missing is the prospects from the mound.  

Move the chaff off the major league position roster, but figure out how to transition pitchers to productive major leaguers too. 

[saviking]

Exactly. I've been pointing this out for the last month. Great article but I find it interesting you left off Larnach. He's batting 272 in AAA and got yaked from the majors when he was our RBI leader. The Twins are letting Gallo steal a very important development year in the majors. 

 

[roger]

Couldn’t read most of the article, but didn’t see Larnach mentioned.  He still has time to develop into a fine player.  Also believe Miranda’s terrible season may be 100% injury related.

[TwinsDr2021]

I like all the players you mentioned (kind of left off Miranda and Larnach?)

My caution would be 226,202, 179, 95 and 86. that is the at bats of AK, Julien, Lewis and Wallner. And because of those low amount of at bats it makes it tough to start next year, it almost requires bringing in vets again as back ups. Because you can't go into a year with a good starting staff and a team full of 2nd year and rookies.

That has been the biggest problem of this FO IMO, and that is 7 years in and basically haven't been able to bring up 1 or 2 rookies a year and have them stick, and/or giving them the opportunity when it is presented. (They seem real slow)

 

 

[terrydactyls]

Gallo is league average?  I'm not too sure of the validity of wRC+. 

[Nashvilletwin]

An additional benefit of the young players: they are way more fun to watch!  I hate to miss any Julien, Wallner or Lewis ABs and Jeffers and Kiriloff are not far behind. When Gallo steps to the plate, it’s time to check emails, grab a snack or take a nap.  

It just goes to show these players need the ABs and playing time in the majors to see what we have and to develop. Investment is required.  Agree with the above post - it’s too bad we aren’t giving Larnach that long look too; instead, Kepler won’t play center and Gallo somehow stays in the lineup.

Let the kids play!

BTW, Wallner has been getting a fair amount of grief on the TD for his lack of a glove; I’d say he’s been pretty nifty in the field with it lately.

[arby58]

22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am always looking for prospect advancement and I think our new core is showing how it can work.  What is missing is the prospects from the mound.  

Well Ober and Jax are having nice years, Balazovic is finally looking promising, and Varland has had his moments. 

[arby58]

11 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Gallo is league average?  I'm not too sure of the validity of wRC+. 

The league average OPS in 2023 is .733, and Gallo is at .726. He hits balls out of the ballpark, and he plays half his games in Target Field, where there aren't many cheap home runs to right field. wRC+ takes these ballpark factors into account.

[wabene]

17 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Gallo is league average?  I'm not too sure of the validity of wRC+. 

Seriously Gallo is single handedly calling into question the validity of many statistics, lol. 

[wabene]

26 minutes ago, roger said:

Couldn’t read most of the article, but didn’t see Larnach mentioned.  He still has time to develop into a fine player.  Also believe Miranda’s terrible season may be 100% injury related.

The thing that makes me doubt this is how well he hit in spring training with said injury. 

[arby58]

23 minutes ago, roger said:

Couldn’t read most of the article, but didn’t see Larnach mentioned.  He still has time to develop into a fine player.  Also believe Miranda’s terrible season may be 100% injury related.

You're right, Larnach, in three seasons, has only accumulated 669 plate appearances - and the most of any year was his first year, 2021. He will probably suffer from 'corner outfield glut syndrome.' Given his season this year, the Twins are likely to pick up Kepler's option, so he's in right field. If Wallner is 'the real deal' he is probably in left field. Larnach is definitely not a center fielder. It doesn't help his cause that all three of these are left handed hitters. 

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Well Ober and Jax are having nice years, Balazovic is finally looking promising, and Varland has had his moments. 

You left out Duran and Gray, But in 7 years that isn't a impressive list.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You're right, Larnach, in three seasons, has only accumulated 669 plate appearances - and the most of any year was his first year, 2021. He will probably suffer from 'corner outfield glut syndrome.' Given his season this year, the Twins are likely to pick up Kepler's option, so he's in right field. If Wallner is 'the real deal' he is probably in left field. Larnach is definitely not a center fielder. It doesn't help his cause that all three of these are left handed hitters. 

Lets be honest, Larnach problem isn't corner outfield glut syndrome, it is he hasn't been good and hasn't stayed healthy.

He has been given three chances to have the job and has failed all three times. Just saying

[terrydactyls]

7 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The league average OPS in 2023 is .733, and Gallo is at .726. He hits balls out of the ballpark, and he plays half his games in Target Field, where there aren't many cheap home runs to right field. wRC+ takes these ballpark factors into account.

So he's below average in OPS, is hitting.179, has 17 HR but only 32 RBI, and strikes out in just over 50% of his at bats but plays half his games in Target Field, so he is considered league average?  When you strike out in over half your at bats, what difference does the field your playing in make?

[terrydactyls]

30 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Lets be honest, Larnach problem isn't corner outfield glut syndrome, it is he hasn't been good and hasn't stayed healthy.

He has been given three chances to have the job and has failed all three times. Just saying

His three chance were 260 AB in 2021, 160 in 2022, and 162 this year.  And many of those AB were pinch hitting.  I wouldn't consider any of them "extended".  This year, he has the same number of RBI as Gallo in about 80 fewer AB, his average is 40 points higher, and he strikes out at a 40% rate versus Gallo's 50%.  Play him now to see what he can do.  If Gallo is league average, Larnach  If he plays well, he's either a value to the Twins or an asset trade.  If not, send him packing.  I think he would be of value to the Twins.  Plus, anyone with a middle name John-Ikaiakola should be in the majors.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Gallo is league average?  I'm not too sure of the validity of wRC+. 

To add context, Gallo had a wRC+ of 183 from 3/30-4/30. Since 4/30, Gallo has had a wRC+ of 76. The reason Gallo’s wRC+ was so high in April was because of the fact he hit seven home runs. In reality, Gallo is much closer to the 76 wRC+ version of himself rather than the player he was in April. Hopefully he can have another month length stretch like he did in April, but that feels very unlikely. 

[LonelyseatinMOA]

Nice piece Cody. Just a heads up, it cannot be read in dark mode

[Cody Schoenmann]

57 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Well Ober and Jax are having nice years, Balazovic is finally looking promising, and Varland has had his moments. 

Headrick has had some flashes too. I think he has the ability to become a reliable left-handed short reliever. Will it happen this season? Likely not. But i’m optimistic about next season for him. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

11 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

His three chance were 260 AB in 2021, 160 in 2022, and 162 this year.  And many of those AB were pinch hitting.  I wouldn't consider any of them "extended".  This year, he has the same number of RBI as Gallo in about 80 fewer AB, his average is 40 points higher, and he strikes out at a 40% rate versus Gallo's 50%.  Play him now to see what he can do.  If Gallo is league average, Larnach  If he plays well, he's either a value to the Twins or an asset trade.  If not, send him packing.  I think he would be of value to the Twins.  Plus, anyone with a middle name John-Ikaiakola should be in the majors.

Personally, I view Larnach more as a trade piece than anything else at this moment. Wallner has supplanted him on the depth chart and i’m 99% sure the Twins are going to pick up Kepler’s $10 million team option for next season. Also, if Larnach doesn’t get traded by next season, I think Keirsey Jr. will also pass him on the OF depth chart. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

5 minutes ago, LonelyseatinMOA said:

Nice piece Cody. Just a heads up, it cannot be read in dark mode

Thanks for letting me know! 

[TwinsDr2021]

46 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

His three chance were 260 AB in 2021, 160 in 2022, and 162 this year.  And many of those AB were pinch hitting.  I wouldn't consider any of them "extended".  This year, he has the same number of RBI as Gallo in about 80 fewer AB, his average is 40 points higher, and he strikes out at a 40% rate versus Gallo's 50%.  Play him now to see what he can do.  If Gallo is league average, Larnach  If he plays well, he's either a value to the Twins or an asset trade.  If not, send him packing.  I think he would be of value to the Twins.  Plus, anyone with a middle name John-Ikaiakola should be in the majors.

First he has had 10 one at bats games in his career, so many pitch hits isn't accurate. If you are trying to talk up Larnach, comparing him to Gallo isn't the best comparison to make, I will go out on a limb and say 99% of Twins (and Yankee and Dodger and probably all the rest of the fans) fans don't think Gallo even belongs in the majors.

Basically all three years he starts out well than falls off and/or gets hurt. I am not sure how a first place team should have continued to give him at bats. (I also say the same about Gallo), Wallner should have been up sooner and if that didn't go well they should have given Keirsey a chance or some other prospect. Then Larnach again. IMO Larnach is a left handed Garlick, but I get how others want to give him more changes.

[TwinsDr2021]

54 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Personally, I view Larnach more as a trade piece than anything else at this moment. Wallner has supplanted him on the depth chart and i’m 99% sure the Twins are going to pick up Kepler’s $10 million team option for next season. Also, if Larnach doesn’t get traded by next season, I think Keirsey Jr. will also pass him on the OF depth chart. 

I think they pick up Kepler's option as well, because as of now they basically have no starting outfielders next year except him. Wallner still has work to do to be given a starting job next year, who knows with Buxton and they basically have no highly ranked outfield prospects that screamed give me a chance for next year.  (Gordon and Castro aren't starting outfielders)

 

[Eris]

Interesting article. Hard to to understand how the Twins can have so many underperforming players. In a couple of years, maybe even next year, Correa and Buxton and some of the others will be bench players unless they produce better than they have this year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Headrick has had some flashes too. I think he has the ability to become a reliable left-handed short reliever. Will it happen this season? Likely not. But i’m optimistic about next season for him. 

Winder, Moran, Alcala and Sands also have shown flashes, big deal until they actually lock jobs down like Jax, Ober, Ryan and Duran have they are just prospects that are getting older.

[MGM4706]

Trouble with Julien is he is atrocious in the field. His transfer skills on double plays are lousy. And he plays so deep to try and get easier hops that players beat out hits and are safe on double play balls because of how deep he plays. Even his recent hitting makes it appear league is figuring him out like they did with Miranda. So don't count on him yet!

[Dave Borton]

31 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Trouble with Julien is he is atrocious in the field. His transfer skills on double plays are lousy. And he plays so deep to try and get easier hops that players beat out hits and are safe on double play balls

Thanks from a radio listener. We get only hints of his defensive shortages from the booth but it's much clearer here on the boards.