Considering a Trade for Ryan Mountcastle

[Matt Braun]

Perhaps the player we’re looking for isn’t stuck on the doldrums of MLB’s worst teams. 

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

We, the good, dutiful Twins fans, have poked high and low over the past few weeks, interrogating each poor team’s roster for potential improvement. These players may be wasted with their current franchise, after all; might a move to the dynastic Twins better both side’s fortunes? Indeed, there are quality players available on such teams, but Minnesota may want to look at the Baltimore Orioles and their first baseman, Ryan Mountcastle.

The Orioles strategically moved their left-field fence back 26.5 feet and raised the wall nearly six feet before the 2022 season. The result is aesthetic garbage, soiling one of MLB’s classic ballparks with jagged, empty nothingness, but it also bore great success, as the team took off in their first season with the new dimensions. They stacked their lineup with lefty power bats and righty contact hitters immune to left-field’s new poison; Mountcastle was left sobbing in the rain. 

As Jay Jaffe wrote in his recent replacement-level killers piece, when the Orioles first brought their Great Wall of Baltimore into existence last season, “perhaps no hitter bore the brunt [of left field’s dimensions] more than righty-swinging Ryan Mountcastle, whose 86-point gap between his slugging percentage and .509 xSLG was the majors’ largest, limiting him to a 106 wRC+.” 

xSLG is one of Baseball Savant's many New Deal program-sounding stats. It determines the expected slugging percent of any given batted ball based on exit velocity and launch angle, regardless of outcome. 

Things aren’t any better in 2023, as Mountcastle continues to lag behind his batted-ball data. He’s actually added a few points of xSLG, sitting at .519, good for 27th-best amongst qualified hitters. He’s tied with Bo Bichette. 

Indeed, being a righty power bat in Baltimore is like being cursed to push a boulder up a hill for eternity. Camden Yards is the fourth-toughest ballpark on righty homers—and the fourth-best at suppressing righty offense in general. Target Field isn’t an outlier in either metric, but its simple virtue of lacking a vast chasm where fans should be sitting could right Mountcastle’s problems. 

The whole situation smells a lot like the issue the Rays had with Willy Adames. Adames was a quality player—a slick shortstop capable of punishing a baseball like a corner outfielder—but he couldn’t see the ball for squat at Tropicana Field, a small problem given that Tampa Bay played 81 games a season there. They bit the bullet. The Rays found a partner with the Milwaukee Brewers, plucked a few talented arms from their system, and both sides have enjoyed a mutual tide-rising, with Adames playing his excellent fully-realized game and Drew Rasmussen tossing nearly 250 innings with a 2.70 ERA.

Admittedly, the deal would make Minnesota’s lineup somewhat complex. Mountcastle is only a first baseman, and Alex Kirilloff—one of the few consistent potent bats in Minnesota’s lineup—calls that position home. With Byron Buxton evidently tied in a 30-year mortgage at DH, Kirilloff would need to move to the outfield, necessitating shuffling in the form of a Joey Gallo DFA (technically likely, maybe tough given the FO’s attachment to their moves) or a Max Kepler trade (not in a million years). 

In any case, Mountcastle is an asset the Orioles can’t use, a weapon they can’t fire. They know this. If the price is right, it might be beneficial for the Twins to save the power bat from his home ballpark, enjoying the fruits of an offense unable to grow in Baltimore’s harsh environment.

View full article

[jorgenswest]

If they trade it needs to be someone clearly better. Mountcastle probably can help against a lefty. For his career he has not hit right handed pitching well enough for a 1B. Would he be a better fit on the roster than Solano? He has more power but 70 strike outs with only 12 walks suggest to me that Solano might be the better fit on this strike out prone team.

[Heiny]

So, what would it take to get him?  Would they like a Wallner/Larnach? with Maeda?  Bring up Kuekle(sp)/Winder/Varland?  What are looking to give up?  

[nicksaviking]

Sorry, but this sounds like a trade just for the sake of trading. 

I don't see him as an upgrade to Kirilloff, nor to whomever Kirilloff would bump upon a move from 1B. Probably more importantly, this team doesn't need another league strikeout crown contender.

The only offensive trades they should be making, are ones that are clearly and enthusiastically an upgrade to what is in the starting lineup now. Go big or stay put.

[insagt1]

O's aren't going to move Mountcastle. They are clicking on all cylinders and probably won't upset the locker room. Plus he is young and can only get better. Orioles have become a legit world series contender this season (I have watched most all their games, along with the Twins this season) they have resurrected Aaron Hick's career from the Yankee scrapheap. doubt they will be messing with their lineup.

[CRF]

I don't think that Balt would be looking to trade him, and I also don't think it makes any sense for us to try and get him. The Only position Mountcastle can play is 1B, so that would move AK to the outfield, and we already have a glut of outfielders. Why get him?  

[Jocko87]

46 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but this sounds like a trade just for the sake of trading. 

I don't see him as an upgrade to Kirilloff, nor to whomever Kirilloff would bump upon a move from 1B. Probably more importantly, this team doesn't need another league strikeout crown contender.

The only offensive trades they should be making, are ones that are clearly and enthusiastically an upgrade to what is in the starting lineup now. Go big or stay put.

Agreed, the RH bat has to be able to play outfield and that's a real stretch for Moundcastle.  I like the idea of keeping in touch with the Orioles though.  They will have to be active to find spots for all the prospects coming.  Santandar or Austin Hays would be appealing and both have options left.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I anticipate we aren't touching any prospect in our top 5-10.  I think the Twins will not be looking at big prospects.  Think of something like what we did with Detroit last year for Fulmer.  I could also see us trading a player or two from the current roster or demoting to AAA.   

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand this idea. If by some shock they trade for a hitter, it will be for an OF. But I see them standing pat offensively. 

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand this idea. If by some shock they trade for a hitter, it will be for an OF. But I see them standing pat offensively. 

IDK ... they can go with a 1B or OF given Kirilloff's flexibility.  Cron got off to  a slow start but he has been playing well for a couple months now.  His wRC+ for the last two months (since 5/25) is 140.  Paul Goldschmidt's wRC+ since then is 108.  I think the cost for Cron will be reasonable.

We know they are not in on SP so that leaves the BP.  We see holes today but I think they look a couple weeks out and see Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Lopez / Moran / Pagan and Ortega with Balazovic / Headrick and Sands as depth.   Plus, Paddack should be back in September.  IDK that they see a big need in the BP.

I know some will say we should at least replace Pagan.  However, he has given up two tuns in his last 16 appearances and his ERA since the blow-up in Boston in late April is 2.29.  Batting average against is .159 and a whip of .91.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

IDK ... they can go with a 1B or OF given Kirilloff's flexibility.  Cron got off to  a slow start but he has been playing well for a couple months now.  His wRC+ for the last two months (since 5/25) is 140.  Paul Goldschmidt's wRC+ since then is 108.  I think the cost for Cron will be reasonable.

We know they are not in on SP so that leaves the BP.  We see holes today but I think they look a couple weeks out and see Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Lopez / Moran / Pagan and Ortega with Balazovic / Headrick and Sands as depth.   Plus, Paddack should be back in September.  IDK that they see a big need in the BP.

I know some will say we should at least replace Pagan.  However, he has given up two tuns in his last 16 appearances and his ERA since the blow-up in Boston in late April is 2.29.  Batting average against is .159 and a whip of .91.

I don't know they need BP help either, given the returns of Stewart and Thielbar.....I mean, I'd trust Balazovic more than them anyway, but they seem hesitant to trust any young players (hitters or pitchers). They didn't even want Julien up, it took Polanco being OUT for him to be up. 

Sure, they CAN put AK in the outfield, but Wallner is outhitting him.....they should just trust Wallner.

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't know they need BP help either, given the returns of Stewart and Thielbar.....I mean, I'd trust Balazovic more than them anyway, but they seem hesitant to trust any young players (hitters or pitchers). They didn't even want Julien up, it took Polanco being OUT for him to be up. 

Sure, they CAN put AK in the outfield, but Wallner is outhitting him.....they should just trust Wallner.

Now that's LArnach is up, hopefully one of Larnach and Wallner take off and lock down a spot.  I think (hope) they trade Gallo at the dead line for a Byron Churio type prospect and eat most of his salary.  Maybe that's optimistic but I could see him go to the Yankees.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Now that's LArnach is up, hopefully one of Larnach and Wallner take off and lock down a spot.  I think (hope) they trade Gallo at the dead line for a Byron Churio type prospect and eat most of his salary.  Maybe that's optimistic but I could see him go to the Yankees.

The Yankees aren't trying that again!

Wallner has hit well since being allowed off the bench. He should just be up. Larnach is only up for three days....

I'd take anything for Gallo at this point, just so Wallner can replace him.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'd be a lot more excited if he were an outfielder, but he would be an OK addition.  No positional flexibility does make their infield even messier than it is now, but his right-handedness works for him, as does there seeming to be reasons for his decreased output.  Maybe Larnach for Mountcastle straight up?  Trading a guy with flaws for a guy with different flaws. . . .

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Now that's LArnach is up, hopefully one of Larnach and Wallner take off and lock down a spot.  I think (hope) they trade Gallo at the dead line for a Byron Churio type prospect and eat most of his salary.  Maybe that's optimistic but I could see him go to the Yankees.

Yeah, this is the deal with me. Mountcastle, Cron and most of the other fairly blasé names we keep hearing aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. We're not likely getting .800+ OPS guys in trades, which I know sounds like it's demanding a lot, but the young internal options have been pulling it off. Julien, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Wallner and Lewis all have been able to reach that kind of production. Miranda and Larnach whiffed, relatively speaking, but that's a 71% success rate so far. Obviously that rate could go either way by the end of the season, but I'd rather stick with what's working.

Can other internal options hit like them? Maybe not, but the best part about the guys already in the system is, that the team can keep trying new ones until they find the parts that click. We don't get that option by trading for someone. For all intents and purposes, they're stuck on the roster and all we can do is cross our fingers. As unlikely as it sounds, when it comes to a modest free agent or the field (the field being the guys already in the organization) the odds are much more likely that someone from the field will be more useful.

[IndianaTwin]

Uh, why not just re-sign Sano?

I mean, like Mountcastle, he's a right-handed hitter who can only play 1B. Mountcastle only strikes 171 times per 162 games, whereas Sano is much higher, but Sano has a higher OPS+ and more HRs per 162.

Said more succinctly, "No, thanks."

(And like others, I don't think Baltimore's likely to be trading him.)

[jkcarew]

And what about Mountcastle's road slash line of 217/261/413? Yuck.

And he's borderline unplayable this year against right-handed pitching. So...a platoon guy who can only hit lefties and play first base??

We have way more right-handed bats than left now, especially after Lewis comes back...Farmer, Buxton, both catchers, MAT, Solano, Correa, Lewis...and Polanco and Castro switch hitting.

Vs Kirilloff, Julien, Kepler, Wallner, the switch hitters...and Gallo (who everyone seems to want gone, and who has a better OBP and OPS than Mountcastle, and is way more useful defensively.)

 

[Fred]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Uh, why not just re-sign Sano?

I mean, like Mountcastle, he's a right-handed hitter who can only play 1B. Mountcastle only strikes 171 times per 162 games, whereas Sano is much higher, but Sano has a higher OPS+ and more HRs per 162.

Said more succinctly, "No, thanks."

(And like others, I don't think Baltimore's likely to be trading him.)

Sano is a 4 letter word that starts with S. 

[PatPfund]

I appreciate the research and thought process, but personally I think this is a year the Twins mostly sit out the deadline unless they find a Fulmer type or two. Their biggest problems on offense have been self-inflicted (continuing to play Byron every day and in the 3-hole even when he is constantly running off 0-20s and neutralizing rallies, the FO's love of Joey Gallo, and Rocco's obsession with sitting his best lefty bats when they face a lefty). Some of this they've already addressed (sitting Byron consecutive games and moving him down the order), and they have Polanco and Lewis coming back, and maybe Gordon, and Wallner/Larnach/Stevenson for OF depth, and even Chris Williams as potential right-handed pop.

Let's save the prospects, and play the folks we'll need to make decisions on by December's roster deadlines. Last year Cleveland got a trade deadline 'F', the Twins mostly got B+/A grades, and yet the Guardians blew past us and finished 14 up (and knocked off the Yankees).

[old nurse]

Career OPS away from Camden Yards .715.  That is not a good sign

[Trov]

I get the thought, but you are making way too many assumptions.  First, you assume his difference output versus expected output based on batted ball numbers is mostly based on the LF in Baltimore.  The problem with that assumption is even if you look at his last 2 year splits, his numbers are still better in Baltimore than on road.  Without more data to show that he has hit many balls that would have been HR in most other ball parks that were outs in Baltimore, it just is assuming that was the case.  It is possible there are many other factors that have led to that difference, like great catches, wind knocking down fly balls.  

Overall, no I am not willing to give up prospects for a part time hitter that may surge in a new place.  

[insagt1]

O's aren't in need of making many, if any, changes. Their current team is, uh, pretty good. Best record in the AL; best record in one run games; best road record in the AL (and 2nd only to Atlanta overall) Hays and Santander are having great seasons. Bautista is money in the bank. While they, like any team, have flaws, overall they are a very solid group.

Twins aren't that bad either if they continue to produce like that have since the ASG. Thing is, they are winning the close games. They also seem to be willing to do other things besides swing from their heels every AB. Flaws? Yep. But how many moves should they make? I don't think many, especially if the 'moves' to improve will be coming off the IL. Only hitter I'd move is Gallo. Kep has wormed his way back in and finally appears to be engaged again. And public enemy #1 in the pen, Pagan, has pitched well enough to earn a stay of execution. Overall...winning sure is fun isn't it. Especially those nice comeback wins where it becomes a total team effort.

[Minny505]

23 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand this idea. If by some shock they trade for a hitter, it will be for an OF. But I see them standing pat offensively. 

I think they get a RH COF bat for a short side platoon, or a LH CF bat, to split time with Taylor. That's probably it on offense.