Week in Review: Stuck In Their Ways

[beckmt]

maybe not a rebuild, but a reset.  Firing Popkins will accomplish little but is a start.  My mother-in-law used to say about preachers the message wears thin after about 7 years and change should be made, use that from Rocco.  

As far a players, DFA Gallo, send Miranda down, bring up Lee (can't be any worse).  He may not be ready, but I would bring up Martin and try and inject some speed and push into this lineup.  At least make the pitchers worry when someone gets on base about the steal.  I think if the FO felt that Wallner or Larnach would be any better they might well be here.  

Offer Gray and Maeda reasonable extensions during this break,  If they do not take them, at least explore a trade.  There are many teams looking for pitching and as July 31 comes closer, you might well get an overpay for a starter.  I might also add Ryan to this list as he seem like a pitcher who can beat the bad clubs, but not the good. 

Not quite ready to give up on the FO, as the pitching pipeline seems like it might work, just have to find hitting.  

[2wins87]

Maybe not changes that would make a huge difference individually or even collectively, but certainly reasonable changes that should help some.  The other suggestion I would make would be giving Jeffers closer to 2/3 of the starts at catcher.

The expectations were probably lower this year than last, but the results are somehow much more frustrating when the pitching is actually good.

[John Belinski]

I just do not understand why Wallner is not on the Twin's team? He was on base 8 times in a row before he was sent down. There must be some reason he is not playing on the team. He may not be great in the field, but the Twins need hitters and he seems to be a better than average hitter.  If the Twins are not going to play him they should trade him since I am sure many teams would trade for him.

Only chance for the Twins to be in the playoffs is to replace Rocco with a manager who has feel for the game. The Twins had bad second half last year and do not expect any improvement this year.  

[Woof Bronzer]

That Falvey quote seems to confirm what I have long suspected:  he doesn't really see a problem here.  Or rather, the problem is bad luck and a couple uncharacteristic poor performances (setting aside the fact Gallo, Kepler, and others are performing exactly to their stats.) This is "process is more important than results" in the extreme.  2.5 years of this and "nothing to see here".  Truly, truly insane.  

We cannot afford to hold on to this FO much longer.  They are quite simply running this franchise into the ground.  I for one will not be investing a penny in this club until the FO is gone.  I hold no illusion that it will happen mid season, but the housecleaning needs to happen day 1 of the offseason so the long difficult work of rebuilding this franchise can begin.  

I am very nervous about the trade deadline further setting the franchise back.  If there's a silver lining it sure doesn't feel like Falvine thinks their job is on the line here so perhaps they'll be less inclined to make desperate short-term-only moves.

[HokieRif]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Calling for someone's head is a serious thing, the least we could do is show a little respect, even in the anonymous interwebs. 

I'm not calling a hit on anyone.  I was making a point about the topic of Popkins needing to be relieved of his coaching duties having been reiterated over and over again.  If anyone has a sound argument for why he needs to retain his position I would love to hear it.

[saviking]

Great article, Nick! Had to get said.

Sunday the Twins scored 2 runs and the Saints scored 20. Kind of says it all. They don't need to trade for hitters. Just trade away the guys standing in the way ..

[farmerguychris]

My favorite part of this article was where we tell Kepler to go play center.  Wish I could tell my bosses what I do, and what I do not prefer to do.  Since he's not producing in the batters box the way we need him to, we should at least get more from  him in the field.  He has the ability to play CF and we need him there.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, beckmt said:

maybe not a rebuild, but a reset.  Firing Popkins will accomplish little but is a start.  My mother-in-law used to say about preachers the message wears thin after about 7 years and change should be made, use that from Rocco.  

As far a players, DFA Gallo, send Miranda down, bring up Lee (can't be any worse).  He may not be ready, but I would bring up Martin and try and inject some speed and push into this lineup.  At least make the pitchers worry when someone gets on base about the steal.  I think if the FO felt that Wallner or Larnach would be any better they might well be here.  

Offer Gray and Maeda reasonable extensions during this break,  If they do not take them, at least explore a trade.  There are many teams looking for pitching and as July 31 comes closer, you might well get an overpay for a starter.  I might also add Ryan to this list as he seem like a pitcher who can beat the bad clubs, but not the good. 

Not quite ready to give up on the FO, as the pitching pipeline seems like it might work, just have to find hitting.  

The "reset" you suggest seems inevitable.  Gallo / Solano / MAT / Gray / Maeda and Pagan are all on expiring contracts and I doubt the pick-up Kepler's option.  At least it would make sense they take that $10M and invest in an impact bat at 1B or OF.

Wallner and/or Larnach are going to get their shot once Gallo and Kepler are gone.  Then, if Lewis can just stay healthy that's a significant addition just waiting to happen.  The other guy who could be a sparkplug is Austin Martin.  It sure would be great if we could keep the best version of him healthy.  Lee will also enter the equation in the not too distant future.

Then, there are a few prospects that have elevated their game enough to warrant optimism.  Pratt, Hellman, Williams, Camargo, Stevenson, Severino, Soularie, Hellman, Keirsey and even Aaron Sabato could be part of late 2023 and 2024.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I’d rather commit to a rebuild now, and return to competitiveness in 2026 than keep my head in the sand, go nowhere the next 3 seasons, and have to start the rebuild anyways in 2027.  The Twins do not have the payroll to spend their way out of this hole, and I see nothing in the minors that suggests a 6-8 player strong wave of high-level talent is about to hit.  Trade Gray, Maeda, Jax, Kepler, Gallo, and Polanco now, and get someone other than Falvine in the off-season.  Might I suggest individuals from the TB and LAD organizations?

So, we have the best Team ERA in the game and you want to see if we can field a better team in 2026 - that’s the goal?

Trade Griffin Jax???

I get being pissed about 2023 performances. Let’s get younger and see if we can get better performances from youth…….. Gray & Maeda not being under contract going forward make them weak pieces for decent return value. If we have a shot at Division Title I hang on to these two.

Polanco is hurt so much, he doesn’t feel like he’s part of this team. Gallo/Kepler being gone through whatever means makes some sense!

Constantly hoping guys we haven’t seen play are going to potentially be great and we are on the leading edge of a franchise flush with years of success in the near future………is wishful thinking. Make a couple roster moves and try to ride the Staff to 85-86 wins! Build in that next year.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, we have the best Team ERA in the game and you want to see if we can field a better team in 2026 - that’s the goal?

Trade Griffin Jax???

I get being pissed about 2023 performances. Let’s get younger and see if we can get better performances from youth…….. Gray & Maeda not being under contract going forward make them weak pieces for decent return value. If we have a shot at Division Title I hang on to these two.

Polanco is hurt so much, he doesn’t feel like he’s part of this team. Gallo/Kepler being gone through whatever means makes some sense!

Constantly hoping guys we haven’t seen play are going to potentially be great and we are on the leading edge of a franchise flush with years of success in the near future………is wishful thinking. Make a couple roster moves and try to ride the Staff to 85-86 wins! Build in that next year.

Gary would be the top trade target this deadline. He would bring them back quite a bit. That said, I don't expect this FO to sell, other than MAYBE an corner OF, but I doubt that very much.

[JD-TWINS]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gary would be the top trade target this deadline. He would bring them back quite a bit. That said, I don't expect this FO to sell, other than MAYBE a corner OF, but I doubt that very much.

 I don’t see anyone trading an everyday asset at any position for a 2 month rental. Just doesn’t seem realistic.

Mitanda or Larnach - Gray - some prospect from A or AA. Gray & some upside.

Only a Top 10 team would trade for Gray & can’t imagine they could afford to trade a real starter away from tha type of Club. I think we would not miss a beat last 2 months………..he hasn’t pocketed a win since end of April.

[Cap'n Piranha]

14 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

How did the rebuild work for Pittsburgh, Detroit, KC? Rebuilds in baseball take longer than 3 years. Drafted players usually take 5-6 years to reach the MLB

Why would you want Falvine to make any trades if you want them fired this off-season? Aren’t they incompetent?

How's stubbornly avoiding a rebuild working for LAA, Boston, and NYM?  Rebuilds take longer than 3 years if you wait to start the rebuild until you have to.  If the Twins trade everything that isn't nailed down now, they can get a jump on the rebuild, rather than wait until after next year.

I don't think Falvine are incompetent.  I think they are not capable of building a team capable of winning the World Series, and since that is all I care about, I want them out.  That said, you can't wait until the offseason to trade Gray, Maeda, Gallo, etc.  Whether Falvine is incompetent or not, they're the only ones that can make in-season trades (unless Joe Pohlad cans them, and would an interim GM really be any better)?

[RpR]

30 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

How's stubbornly avoiding a rebuild working for LAA, Boston, and NYM?  Rebuilds take longer than 3 years if you wait to start the rebuild until you have to.  If the Twins trade everything that isn't nailed down now, they can get a jump on the rebuild, rather than wait until after next year.

I don't think Falvine are incompetent.  I think they are not capable of building a team capable of winning the World Series, and since that is all I care about, I want them out.  That said, you can't wait until the offseason to trade Gray, Maeda, Gallo, etc.  Whether Falvine is incompetent or not, they're the only ones that can make in-season trades (unless Joe Pohlad cans them, and would an interim GM really be any better)?

Pie-in-sky wishful thinking, at best.

Pohlads have the Twins to make money, attendance is dropping, putting a team of crap-shoot newbies will not bring in any more fans.

Bottom line, money; money comes from fans in the stands.

The fact the Twins cannot hit, with either same veterans or newbies who are below what they were before they came here , shows that coaching may not be the only problem , but definatley a large part of it., but blaming the players and saying replacements will fix it , is illogical.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, we have the best Team ERA in the game and you want to see if we can field a better team in 2026 - that’s the goal?

Trade Griffin Jax???

I get being pissed about 2023 performances. Let’s get younger and see if we can get better performances from youth…….. Gray & Maeda not being under contract going forward make them weak pieces for decent return value. If we have a shot at Division Title I hang on to these two.

Polanco is hurt so much, he doesn’t feel like he’s part of this team. Gallo/Kepler being gone through whatever means makes some sense!

Constantly hoping guys we haven’t seen play are going to potentially be great and we are on the leading edge of a franchise flush with years of success in the near future………is wishful thinking. Make a couple roster moves and try to ride the Staff to 85-86 wins! Build in that next year.

Not to quibble, but the Twins now have the 3rd best team ERA, with 3 more teams within a tenth of a run.

Jax has one more pre-arb year, so if the goal is to target 2026 for competitiveness, that means he only has two years of team control at that point.  I think you could get a solid package for him, given all that team control.

I'm not pissed about 2023 performances, I'm realistic that this isn't happening because of massive injury or bad luck issues.  It has to be assumed that some of these players might be displaying their new normal.

I don't care about a division title, just to get embarrassed in the playoffs.  In the past two weeks, other than 1 game, we've seen this team get completely outclassed by BAL and ATL.  I have no confidence this current team can compete, and there's no reason to expect things to be massively different next year either.  I don't want to turn into the Angels who keep running a slightly different version of a deeply flawed team year after year, and before you know it, we haven't been in the playoffs for 6 years, and the farm system is still ranked 17th.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

 I don’t see anyone trading an everyday asset at any position for a 2 month rental. Just doesn’t seem realistic.

Mitanda or Larnach - Gray - some prospect from A or AA. Gray & some upside.

Only a Top 10 team would trade for Gray & can’t imagine they could afford to trade a real starter away from tha type of Club. I think we would not miss a beat last 2 months………..he hasn’t pocketed a win since end of April.

I'm not sure why you are mentioning every day assets that are MLB players. As for prospects? They'd get at least one top 100 and two more decent to good ones. That's likely better than the pick they'd get when he turns down the QO.

[Minny505]

The suggestions are all realistic. 

Kepler has lost a lot of sprint speed since 2019 when he last played CF. He might be a train wreck there now, but it's worth finding out. To counter that speed decrease he is in the top 5% of route running for all OFers in MLB.

As a strong-side platoon CF, he and Taylor might actually combine for average CF production. 

I think they are going to hold onto Gallo until the trade deadline, hoping he catches fire between now and then, to raise his value. At the 2022 deadline, a much worse season than 2023, he still netted the 15ish prospect from the Dodgers.

 

[RpR]

24 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

The suggestions are all realistic. 

Kepler has lost a lot of sprint speed since 2019 when he last played CF. He might be a train wreck there now, but it's worth finding out. To counter that speed decrease he is in the top 5% of route running for all OFers in MLB.

As a strong-side platoon CF, he and Taylor might actually combine for average CF production. 

I think they are going to hold onto Gallo until the trade deadline, hoping he catches fire between now and then, to raise his value. At the 2022 deadline, a much worse season than 2023, he still netted the 15ish prospect from the Dodgers.

 

In 2021 Kepler was 10--0 stealing bases, tied for second most with Gordon and one behind Polanco;  I do not think he has lost much speed if any,  I think his attitude has changed for some reason.

As players coming to the Twins are now dropping, instead having a better season, I am with the group that think their coaching, top to bottom, is a major part of the problem.

[Minny505]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

In 2021 Kepler was 10--0 stealing bases, tied for second most with Gordon and one behind Polanco;  I do not think he has lost much speed if any,  I think his attitude has changed for some reason.

As players coming to the Twins are now dropping, instead having a better season, I am with the group that think their coaching, top to bottom, is a major part of the problem.

Stolen bases is not a great proxy for speed. See Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt vs Mike Trout* and Edmundo Sosa. Admittedly there is a decent correlation between sprint speed and SBs, but it can also be misleading.

Sprint Speed on Baseball Savant is much more helpful. Kepler has been trending down from the 80th percentile in 2019 to 52nd in 2023.

*Trout is about to turn 32 and is still in the top 5 percentile of sprint speed in MLB. What a freak!!

[gman]

Projected lineup

Julian 2b

Lewis 3B  (Farmer until Lewis is back)

Polanco   DH

Kirriloff  1B

Jeffers C(60% of games/Vazquez 40%)

Wallner LF

Larnach RF

Taylor/Kiersey - (platoon until Martin is healthy)

Correa SS

Bench-  Buxton (or DL), Castro, Vazquez, Solano

Trade if possible Gallo, Kepler for relievers or low A prospects

Hope that Stewart & Theilbar are back soon, maybe Paddock in August.

Shoot for playoffs without as much swing & miss in the lineup. Ride the starting pitching. Try to score 3 runs in 4 games a week or 4 runs in 3 games a week. Maybe even occasionally 5.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Stolen bases is not a great proxy for speed. See Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt vs Mike Trout* and Edmundo Sosa. Admittedly there is a decent correlation between sprint speed and SBs, but it can also be misleading.

Sprint Speed on Baseball Savant is much more helpful. Kepler has been trending down from the 80th percentile in 2019 to 52nd in 2023.

*Trout is about to turn 32 and is still in the top 5 percentile of sprint speed in MLB. What a freak!!

Well Kep is still the 3rd fastest Twin playing regularly, I looked at the factors for running speed and they simply cannot measure base stealing due to number of sprints necessary to measure.

At that, Kep has the same number of Bolts as Polanco, so that says a bit about why he can steal as well as Polanco, or could.

[beckmt]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 I don’t see anyone trading an everyday asset at any position for a 2 month rental. Just doesn’t seem realistic.

Mitanda or Larnach - Gray - some prospect from A or AA. Gray & some upside.

Only a Top 10 team would trade for Gray & can’t imagine they could afford to trade a real starter away from tha type of Club. I think we would not miss a beat last 2 months………..he hasn’t pocketed a win since end of April.

I think you would be looking at a high level propect a AA or AAA from a club in a win now mode.  We must get better and have questions to if either Laurnach or Wallner would be better or more swing and miss.  Otherwise bring up the kids, could not be any worse.

[Cap'n Piranha]

11 minutes ago, RpR said:

Pie-in-sky wishful thinking, at best.

Pohlads have the Twins to make money, attendance is dropping, putting a team of crap-shoot newbies will not bring in any more fans.

Bottom line, money; money comes from fans in the stands.

The fact the Twins cannot hit, with either same veterans or newbies who are below what they were before they came here , shows that coaching may not be the only problem , but definatley a large part of it., but blaming the players and saying replacements will fix it , is illogical.

What makes more money, a team that plays listless, uninspired baseball for multiple years, or a team that actually builds hope through a collection of exciting young players who together from a dynamic competitive core?

The Pohlads are in business, and understand the concept of "startup costs"--losing money now to make a lot more later.

[RpR]

5 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

What makes more money, a team that plays listless, uninspired baseball for multiple years, or a team that actually builds hope through a collection of exciting young players who together from a dynamic competitive core?

The Pohlads are in business, and understand the concept of "startup costs"--losing money now to make a lot more later.

As I said it is wishful thinking; the Pohlads know what they have, they have been burned by crap-shoot retreads, they are not going to bring up a bunch of rookies and hope for the best.

So far their minor league rookies have been mediocre as a whole.

[Bodie]

On 7/9/2023 at 8:11 PM, Fezig said:

Time for a managerial philosophy where strike outs aren't accepted as a badge of honor. 

Funny thing... the same people who believe that "swing and miss" pitchers are an absolute necessity for a quality staff don't seem to think that an offense that does little but swing and miss is an acceptable part of a quality team!  We have a staff that will assuredly break (more likely shatter) any and all Twins strikeout records.  And an offense that will have even more Ks (and shatter MLB strikeout records).  And a front office that thinks that what last year's strikeout plagued team needed was Joey freaKing Gallo!

Fire Falvey and Baldelli now.  Not at the end of another hugely disappointing season, but now.  No heart, and no willingness to adjust are now the hallmarks of the Twins, and this starts with the decision makers both on (Baldelli) and off the field (Falvey). 

Bring in fresh eyes to see what is salvageable, what HAS to go via trade, and what just has to go into the old circular file cabinet.

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

As I said it is wishful thinking; the Pohlads know what they have, they have been burned by crap-shoot retreads, they are not going to bring up a bunch of rookies and hope for the best.

So far their minor league rookies have been mediocre as a whole.

Umm, the Top 3 OPS on the team belong to minor league rookies (Wallner, Lewis, Julien).  Those 3 combined make less than 10% of Carlos Correa, and are hilariously outperforming him.  You're just not living in reality my man.

[RpR]

29 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Umm, the Top 3 OPS on the team belong to minor league rookies (Wallner, Lewis, Julien).  Those 3 combined make less than 10% of Carlos Correa, and are hilariously outperforming him.  You're just not living in reality my man.

I was writing about last years pitchers and such;.

Money problems would come from empty stands just like the seventies when all the rookies simply did not play well enough to enthuse the fans to buy tickets like they did for gents of the sixties and tickets were cheap back then as was the food.

Que sera, sera.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

I was writing about last years pitchers and such;.

Money problems would come from empty stands just like the seventies when all the rookies simply did not play well enough to enthuse the fans to buy tickets like they did for gents of the sixties and tickets were cheap back then as was the food.

Que sera, sera.

Last year's rookie pitchers were Cano, Hamilton, Sands, Megill, Winder, Varland, Romero, SWR, Ryan, Henriquez, Moran, and Duran.  3 of the Twin's 10 best pitchers by ERA (Duran, Moran, Henriquez) were rookies, 4 more (Winder, Varland, SWR, Ryan) were top pitching prospects (which generally draw a lot of fan interest), and the other 5 combined to pitch 95.7 innings, which is less than 7% of the total innings pitched by the team last year--it's the equivalent of getting 2 outs a game.

So now that I've yet again proven that rookies aren't coming up and sinking the ship, do you still want to stand by your incorrect assertion?

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Last year's rookie pitchers were Cano, Hamilton, Sands, Megill, Winder, Varland, Romero, SWR, Ryan, Henriquez, Moran, and Duran.  3 of the Twin's 10 best pitchers by ERA (Duran, Moran, Henriquez) were rookies, 4 more (Winder, Varland, SWR, Ryan) were top pitching prospects (which generally draw a lot of fan interest), and the other 5 combined to pitch 95.7 innings, which is less than 7% of the total innings pitched by the team last year--it's the equivalent of getting 2 outs a game.

So now that I've yet again proven that rookies aren't coming up and sinking the ship, do you still want to stand by your incorrect assertion?

My error, I should have said re-treads from  two years ago, but where are Acher, Bundy, Smeltzer, Duffey, plus I said AND SUCH, read every word.

i stand by what I said.

Pie in the Sky rookies at any position is a crap-shoot, and the fans will boo them,  even louder than they did in the last game.

Minnesota has become another New York, they boo like little children and I wonder how the rookies will deal with booing.

 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Very disappointed in the season.  Something is wrong that so many hitters are underperforming.  When they hired the young, very inexperience batting coach I questioned the hire.  He is not totally blame but I'm convinced he is in over his head.  Rocco in his press conference after the Atlanta fiasco sure seem to me pointing fingers at him without directly naming him.  I would think their working relationship is pretty strained after that.  That they are not making any significant changes during the all star break per interviews with Falvey, Dave St, Peter is disappointing.  I remember in 2006 when they were in similar situation and Ryan and Gardy did make major changes.  Which turned their season around.  As a season ticket holder, I'm not buying staying the course with the current players and coaches makes sense.  I guess I will have to join with other boo birds at games.  I did read in Souhan's column when he was interviewing Joe Pohlad, Falvey's boss in his office during the last game (15-2 loss).  They both could hear the boo birds loud and clear.  Here's to Joe Pohlad properly motivating Falvey and Rocco.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

42 minutes ago, RpR said:

My error, I should have said re-treads from  two years ago, but where are Acher, Bundy, Smeltzer, Duffey, plus I said AND SUCH, read every word.

i stand by what I said.

Pie in the Sky rookies at any position is a crap-shoot, and the fans will boo them,  even louder than they did in the last game.

Minnesota has become another New York, they boo like little children and I wonder how the rookies will deal with booing.

 

So just to clarify, the Pohlads won't bring up rookies, because they're pie-in-the-sky, fans will boo, then stop coming to games, and they'll lose money.  They also won't bring up re-treads, because again, fans will boo, then stop coming to games, and they'll lose money.  So the only player acquisition vehicle left is spending market rate on prime free agents--and you think the Pohlads who according to you care only about whether or not the Twins make money, will choose that last and most expensive of routes?