Weird Nerd Mad About Shutout

[RandBalls Stu]

Joyless Hopkins man wants to remind you about a couple things.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez was dialed in on Wednesday night, striking out 12 and allowing four meager hits in a complete game, 100-pitch shutout victory. Lifelong Twins fan Ethan Sudbury couldn’t be angrier.

“It was against the Royals,” he said friendlessly. “How did it take him 100 pitches to do that? A true ace could do that in 85-90, tops.”

The decisive 5-0 win over Kansas City featured one of the best performances by a Minnesota pitcher in recent memory. But the sad Hopkins man wants you to know how costly it was.

“We traded a .400 hitter for a guy who is .500 at the All-Star Break,” said Sudbury, who has a face you dream about punching. “We have a quote-unquote ace with an ERA barely under 4. That’s why he’s staying home next week and Arraez is going to Seattle.”

The Twins acquired Lopez from the Miami Marlins for 2023 All-Star Luis Arraez. Beloved by fans, Arraez has flirted with .400 most of the season, with a minor recent slump sending him into the .380s. As noted by the dreary Sudbury, Arraez is going to the All-Star Game in Seattle while Lopez is staying home with a 5-5 record and a 3.89 ERA, although his advanced stats show that he’s been much better than those numbers indicate.

The impossibly lonely Sudbury asks that you ignore them. 

“The Twins traded an All-Star second baseman for a middle-of-the-rotation guy,” said the 24-year-old systems analyst. “Their current second baseman is a Canadian who can’t play defense. I will die on this hill alone if I have to.”

Sudbury’s family confirms he is single and would in fact die alone on that hill or anywhere else.

“He’s deeply unpleasant,” said Amy Sudbury, Ethan’s disappointed mother. “He gets that from his father.”

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[Teflon]

Luis Arraez ranks among all NL players:

#1 BA

#1 OBA

#1 AB per Strikeout

#3 OPS+

#4 Adjusted Batting Wins

#5 Offensive Win %

#6 WAR

#7 OPS

#7 Runs Created

 

 

 

[Jocko87]

20 minutes ago, Teflon said:

Luis Arraez ranks among all NL players:

#1 BA

#1 OBA

#1 AB per Strikeout

#3 OPS+

#4 Adjusted Batting Wins

#5 Offensive Win %

#6 WAR

#7 OPS

#7 Runs Created

 

 

 

Is it you? At first I thought your name was Joyless Hopkins.

[The_Phantom]

Quote

 

39 minutes ago, Teflon said:

Luis Arraez ranks among all NL players:

#1 BA

#1 OBA

#1 AB per Strikeout

#3 OPS+

#4 Adjusted Batting Wins

#5 Offensive Win %

#6 WAR

#7 OPS

#7 Runs Created

 

You forgot to mention: 

Twins rank:
24th in average
23rd in OBP
30th in strikeouts (on pace to obliterate the MLB record)
21st in runs scored
20th in OPS
 
And they don't have ONE SINGLE OFFENSIVE PLAYER in the top 100 position player WAR in the league. 
 
But sure, let's make a "funny" article about how Twins didn't lose the Arraez trade in every single facet, because hey Pablo threw a complete game this week! 

[Jocko87]

16 minutes ago, The_Phantom said:

You forgot to mention: 

Twins rank:
24th in average
23rd in OBP
30th in strikeouts (on pace to obliterate the MLB record)
21st in runs scored
20th in OPS
 
And they don't have ONE SINGLE OFFENSIVE PLAYER in the top 100 position player WAR in the league. 
 
But sure, let's make a "funny" article about how Twins didn't lose the Arraez trade in every single facet, because hey Pablo threw a complete game this week! 

See, the thing about satire is

[Schmoeman5]

I'm with you Ethan. You won't die alone on that hill. I'm a coming, guns ablazing. 🔫 

[DJL44]

The Twins are sending Sonny Gray to the All-Star game but he might be their 3rd best starting pitcher.

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, Teflon said:

Luis Arraez ranks among all NL players:

#1 BA

#1 OBA

#1 AB per Strikeout

#3 OPS+

#4 Adjusted Batting Wins

#5 Offensive Win %

#6 WAR

#7 OPS

#7 Runs Created

 

 

 

Seemed like when we gave him to Miami lot's of talk about he couldn't repeat or was a flash in the pan hitter or just a singles hitter, etc.  His overall career numbers rank with the best starting in 2019 with a BA of .334,  Lowest of his career was a .294 in 2021,   The Twins don't have anyone even close!  He has played in over 120 games for the last 2 years and so far 83 this year.  He had a few 10 day IL stints but has been healthy the last 3 years.  Although you can't put a number of his personality of love of the game and how he could motivate the Twins this year should be close to 1.000,  

[Schmoeman5]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are sending Sonny Gray to the All-Star game but he might be their 3rd best starting pitcher.

He might actually be their 4th best.  But that's a different topic

[DJL44]

There is no joy in Hopkins because the Twins are striking out.

[ashbury]

I'm still upset about losing Nelson Cruz over some untested rookie pitcher.  We all have that one hill we need to die on and that shall be mine.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There were lots of fans opposed to trading Arraez for Lopez when it was just a rumor, but when Miami threw in an A ball player hitting a buck-eighty, it suddenly became a fantastic trade!

Not to mention the fans who seemed perfectly satisfied with Rocco pulling Joe Ryan out of a no hitter after the 7th last year. (also against the Royals.) 

The satire pen will never run out of work! 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

42 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Seemed like when we gave him to Miami lot's of talk about he couldn't repeat or was a flash in the pan hitter or just a singles hitter, etc.  His overall career numbers rank with the best starting in 2019 with a BA of .334,  Lowest of his career was a .294 in 2021,   The Twins don't have anyone even close!  He has played in over 120 games for the last 2 years and so far 83 this year.  He had a few 10 day IL stints but has been healthy the last 3 years.  Although you can't put a number of his personality of love of the game and how he could motivate the Twins this year should be close to 1.000,  

Who has worse knees, Buxton or Arraez! That’s gonna be a close one! 

[stringer bell]

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are sending Sonny Gray to the All-Star game but he might be their 3rd best starting pitcher.

Maybe fourth. 

[chpettit19]

Losing Arraez (Tony Gwynn 2.0 as I like to call him) will always, and forever, make me sad. Lopez wasn't the guy I wanted back in the trade either. But I'm willing to bet any amount of money you want that Arraez doesn't hit .400 this year, or any other year, and Lopez looks much better than I thought he'd be. Luis topped out at .355 on July 9th last year and went downhill from there. He's started to dip a little in Miami this year. Will be fun to see where he ends up at the end of the year.  I'd bet he ends up higher than .316, but I'm quite certain it's going to be below .400.

This trade has the chance to be both incredibly depressing incredibly joyful. Will be fun to track the remainder of these guys' careers. Right now it's looking pretty even to me, because I don't think Luis Arraez is actually going to hit .400.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Teflon said:

Luis Arraez ranks among all NL players:

#1 BA

#1 OBA

#1 AB per Strikeout

#3 OPS+

#4 Adjusted Batting Wins

#5 Offensive Win %

#6 WAR

#7 OPS

#7 Runs Created

 

 

 

*Qualified NL players.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

The Luis Arraez/Pablo Lopez comparison is a case of Arraez pitching into some great luck while Lopez has been unlucky to this point.

Luis Arraez is a career .328 hitter with a career .299 xBA (a difference of .029 points). However, this year, his batting average is .055 points higher than his xBA (.388 to .333). The last time I checked, Zips projected that he'll end the year with a ~.360 batting average. I think that there is a lot of negative regression to the mean that will happen, and Arraez does not walk nearly enough to continue batting close to .400 (Rod Carew walked 10% of the time in 1977 and Ted Williams walked 21.6% of the time in 1942. Luis Arraez "only" has a 7% walk rate). 

Conversely, Pablo Lopez has hit into some poor luck. From 2020-2022, he's posted a 3.52 ERA and 3.58 xERA over 340.0 IP (with him posting equivalent 3.75 figures in 2022). This year, his 3.03 xERA is paired with a much higher 3.89 figure in the first half. Hitters are slashing .220/.281/.358 against him (a heck of a lot worse than Gallo and Kepler, two guys who half of y'all want to DFA), and he's probably going to strikeout 250 batters if he stays healthy.

They both have equivalent trade values (per BTV), and I am very excited to see Lopez, Ryan, and Ober form a three-headed monster at the top of the rotation for the next 4+ years.

[MABB1959]

44 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Who has worse knees, Buxton or Arraez! That’s gonna be a close one! 

So far Buxton is winning by 100 miles

[Schmoeman5]

Flash: Satirical article sparks heated debate

[LA Vikes Fan]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Losing Arraez (Tony Gwynn 2.0 as I like to call him) will always, and forever, make me sad. Lopez wasn't the guy I wanted back in the trade either. But I'm willing to bet any amount of money you want that Arraez doesn't hit .400 this year, or any other year, and Lopez looks much better than I thought he'd be. Luis topped out at .355 on July 9th last year and went downhill from there. He's started to dip a little in Miami this year. Will be fun to see where he ends up at the end of the year.  I'd bet he ends up higher than .316, but I'm quite certain it's going to be below .400.

This trade has the chance to be both incredibly depressing incredibly joyful. Will be fun to track the remainder of these guys' careers. Right now it's looking pretty even to me, because I don't think Luis Arraez is actually going to hit .400.

There actually are trades that work out for both teams. I think this is one of them. Both teams got what they needed and both players are performing at a very high level. Add in that we signed Lopez through 2027 for roughly 18.5m a season, and the Marlins get two more years of arbitration before Arraez becomes a free agent and everybody wins. I'll cheer for Luis and hope he hits .350 while I cheer for the Twins and hope Lopez wins multiple playoff games. I think both will happen. 

[MABB1959]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Losing Arraez (Tony Gwynn 2.0 as I like to call him) will always, and forever, make me sad. Lopez wasn't the guy I wanted back in the trade either. But I'm willing to bet any amount of money you want that Arraez doesn't hit .400 this year, or any other year, and Lopez looks much better than I thought he'd be. Luis topped out at .355 on July 9th last year and went downhill from there. He's started to dip a little in Miami this year. Will be fun to see where he ends up at the end of the year.  I'd bet he ends up higher than .316, but I'm quite certain it's going to be below .400.

This trade has the chance to be both incredibly depressing incredibly joyful. Will be fun to track the remainder of these guys' careers. Right now it's looking pretty even to me, because I don't think Luis Arraez is actually going to hit .400.

I can see where it could be considered "even".   Lopez also has the chance to dip here in MN.  I have 2 points.  First, a pitcher appears in 30ish games where Arraez is well over 100.  2nd is nothing against Lopez but disappointment that the Twins won't spend on great pitching (compliment to Lopez).

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I can see where it could be considered "even".   Lopez also has the chance to dip here in MN.  I have 2 points.  First, a pitcher appears in 30ish games where Arraez is well over 100.  2nd is nothing against Lopez but disappointment that the Twins won't spend on great pitching (compliment to Lopez).

He definitely has the possibility to dip. And they both had team control left so it's not all about just this year when it comes to the trade. Pretty crazy, to me, to judge a trade less than 100 games in. As for pitchers vs hitters games, yes, the hitter appears in more, but Arraez gets 3-5 PAs a game he plays in while Lopez faces 20+ hitters in the games he plays in. Where the separator comes in is a hitter also fielding. They get more opportunities to impact a season overall if they get enough balls hit at them, but then you have to factor in their defense, and can't just point to their hitting line and say it's all that matters.

Marcus Semien lead baseball with 724 PAs last year. 5 guys had at least 700. Sandy Alcantara lead baseball with 886 batters faced last year. 7 guys had at least 800, and 38 had at least 700. So just looking at games played vs games started doesn't tell the whole story on impact. If you're just comparing hitting to pitching, a starter actually wins. The defense is the difference maker.

[Minny505]

I admit, I was on the fence about this trade, leaning toward a good one for the Twins.

Now though, I love it. Lopez has been so much better than expected. I thought the Twins were getting a #3, but they might have gotten an ace...a true ACE. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I was finishing off the article when i went... "who is this Ethan Sudbury? i thought his name was Joyless Hopkins.

 

I am immensely satisfied with a complete game shut out of KC by Lopez.

 

Puts him up a pedestal next to Andrew Albers as names to be reckoned with in hallowed history of the Twins/KC rivalry.

[NotAboutWinning]

Friday, July 7, 2023. The day the Satire died 😰

[DJL44]

I have never been so tempted to change my username.

1 hour ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

I was finishing off the article when i went... "who is this Ethan Sudbury? i thought his name was Joyless Hopkins.

 

[Mortimerkenny21]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Flash: Satirical article sparks heated debate

Fun article, made me chuckle. And scroll down just endless stats and debate. All the numbers look like someone writing code for a computer program. Just laugh at the funny article, live a little, maybe through in your own little joke and enjoy it for what it is. Or don't, I guess it's not for me to suggest to others how to conduct themselves.

[DJL44]

Quote

“He’s deeply unpleasant,” said Amy Sudbury, Ethan’s disappointed mother. “He gets that from his father.”

I also want to know which one of you old farts here is his father.

[Schmoeman5]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I also want to know which one of you old farts here is his father.

I'll plead the 5th. But she didn't go by Amy when I knew her.

[Craig Arko]

Tom Brunansky for Tommy Herr? WTF, Falvine?