Nygaard Mock Draft v. 2.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We are only nine days away from the beginning of the 2023 MLB draft and will finally start to get answers to the many questions that are being asked. Will the Pirates take Crews first overall? Do the "top five" all go in the top five? Which team will make the first big shocking pick? Will any team play the money game and try to push another player to a later pick?

It's been about a month since my first attempt at a mock draft, and Jamie Cameron and I also tried a dual mock draft last week. There will be one final mock draft the day before the draft begins.

Without further talk about how much fun mock drafts are to both do and pick apart, here is version 2.0:

1.) Pirates – Dylan Crews , OF, LSU - We’ve legitimately reached a point in time where Paul Skenes is the more popular choice for the Pirates. Sure, Skenes is more than deserving and there are rumors that Scott Boras is doing his best to push Crews to Washington. But when it comes down to it, Crews is the best prospect and the Pirates should take the best prospect.

Previous: no change

2.) Nationals – Paul Skenes , RHP, LSU - While it’s a possibility that Skenes goes first and also possible that the Pirates go with someone different, the Nationals will take Crews if he’s available and Skenes if Crews is gone. In the scenario, Skenes becomes the best Nationals pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg .

Previous: no change

3.) Tigers – Wyatt Langford , OF, Florida -  Wyatt Langford should be a 1-1 candidate, but is overshadowed by Crews. Wyatt Langford is a future all-start and a player Tigers fans will love.  

Previous: Walker Jenkins

4.) Rangers - Walker Jenkins, OF, North Carolina prep - Rumors have it that the Rangers are most focused on Jenkins and Max Clark. We’ll lean toward Jenkins as the Rangers have worked very closely with his agency in the recent past. 

Previous: Wyatt Langford

5.) Twins – Kyle Teel , C, Virginia - Ok, I’ll bite. The Twins don’t seem to believe as strongly in the “this is a five-man draft” as the media seems to. Recent reports suggest that the Twins prefer Max Clark to Jenkins and would take Clark here, but not Jenkins. But earlier reports suggest they aren’t super high on Clark either. Most rumors point towards college hitters over prep hitters. Jacob Gonzalez is a popular name, but Kyle Teel comes from the same tier (not the first) and also provides the organization with their best-catching prospect since Joe Mauer . As a Twins fan - and I haven’t seen this connection - I would love to see Arjun Nimmala get consideration here. 

Previous: Max Clark
 
6.) A’s – Jacob Wilson , SS, Grand Canyon - Too early to take Wilson in my opinion, but this is a connection that’s been made in multiple places. Nothing that the A’s do will surprise me.

Previous: Enrique Bradfield

7.) Reds – Rhett Lowder , RHP, Wake Forest - Cincinnati could definitely end Max Clark’s fall, but the chance to add Lowder to an up-and-coming team wins. Aside from Skenes, Lowder might have the best chance to be the first from this draft class to debut in the big leagues.

Previous: Kyle Teel

8.) Royals - Thomas White, LHP, Massachusetts prep - Looking at previous drafts, the Royals lead the league in making selections that make me raise my eyebrows. And, most recently, it is because they take a left-handed pitcher way too early. This isn’t White’s fault, he’s the best lefty available.

Previous: Rhett Lowder

9.) Rockies – Hurston Waldrep , RHP, Florida - The best chance for the Rockies to add pitching is through the draft, even though I felt like this would be a great place to end Clark’s slide.

Previous: Chase Dollander

10.) Marlins – Max Clark, OF, Indiana prep - The slide had to end somewhere and the Marlins are in a great position to add the best prospect on the board and put a centerfielder in center field.

Previous: Jacob Gonzalez

11.) Angels – Jacob Gonzalez , SS, Mississippi - Gonzalez has been slipping on (media) boards and the preseason Top 5 pick finds himself out of the Top 10.

Previous: Jacob Wilson

12.) Diamondbacks – Chase Dollander , RHP, Tennessee - Who knows where Dollander ends up. He could be the second pitcher off the board. He could be the sixth or seventh if prep pitchers start to go. His stuff is off the charts… he just couldn’t put it all together this season.

Previous: Arjun Nimmala

13.) Cubs – Arjun Nimmala, SS, Florida prep - There are a plethora of infielders who could go here, but the Cubs pass up the college hitters for a prep one.

Previous: Tommy Troy

14.) Red Sox – Matt Shaw , SS, Maryland - There’s going to be a run on infielders in the middle of the first round and it’s going to be heavy with college guys. 

Previous: Colin Houck

15.) White Sox – Tommy Troy , SS, Stanford - Probably would have gone with any of the top four college arms here, but they were all gone. So the infield run continues.

Previous: Hurston Waldrep

16.) Giants– Enrique Bradfield Jr. , OF, Vanderbilt - Bradfield will go to someone who recognizes speed as the new market inefficiency. I’m not sure it’s the Giants, but he can’t slide forever.

Previous: Bryce Eldridge

17.) Orioles – Colin Houck, SS, Georgia prep - I actually really like the idea of the Orioles taking Noble Meyer. But when it comes down to it, the Orioles have had success with upside prep bats and Houck represents that demographic well.

Previous: Noble Meyer

18.) Brewers - Brayden Taylor , 3B, TCU - Taylor is one of many college bats that could be considered here. 

Previous: Matt Shaw

19.) Rays – Noble Meyer, RHP, Oregon prep - Nothing makes more sense than the Rays selecting my favorite prep pitcher.

Previous: Thomas White

20.) Blue Jays – Chase Davis , OF, Arizona  

Previous: Brayden Taylor

21.) Cardinals – Aidan Miller, 3B, Florida prep 

Previous: Kevin McGonigle

22.) Mariners – Nolan Schanuel , 1B, Florida Atlantic

Previous: Blake Mitchell
 
23.) Guardians – Colt Emerson, SS, Ohio prep

Previous: Jack Hurley

24.) Braves – Dillon Head, OF, Illinois prep

Previous: Brock Wilken

25.) Padres - Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Virginia prep

Previous: Aidan Miller

26.) Yankees – Sammy Stafura, SS, New York prep

Previous: George Lombard Jr.

27.) Phillies – Charlee Soto, RHP, Florida prep

Previous: Colt Emerson

28.) Astros - Jack Hurley , OF, Virginia Tech

Previous: Chase Davis

29.) Mariners – Blake Mitchell, C, Texas prep

Previous: Nolan Schanuel

30.) Mariners – Kevin McGonigle, SS, Pennsylvania prep

Previous: Colton Ledbetter

What do you think? Who goes too high? Who goes too low?

Post your own mock in your blog!

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[jjswol]

Rumors have it that Crews has no interest in going to Pittsburgh. I just don't see the Twins useing a number 1 pick to draft a catcher.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

5 minutes ago, jjswol said:

Rumors have it that Crews has no interest in going to Pittsburgh. I just don't see the Twins useing a number 1 pick to draft a catcher.

I think it's less what Dylan Crews wants and more what Scott Boras wants for Dylan Crews.

You may be right... but when the bat is on par with the other bats they seem to be considering, being a catcher (and a left-handed hitting one) might be enough to tip the scale.

[Dman]

I think the top three are set at Crews. Skenes and Langford.  I am not 100% sold that the high school kids will go 4 and 5 and I still think the Pirates might go Clark at number 1 if he is willing, and he should be, to take a discount to go number 1.  Personally I think Pittsburgh should take Skenes as right and left fielders can be found later in drafts. Granted the two available could be generational bats but an ace pitcher is generally much, much harder to find.  Still there is a lot of risk going pitcher as arm problems can negate any value the pick had.  Still having a stopper type starter is what they will need to compete against the better teams so they should go big or go home IMO.

I still think Texas might go with Teel.  They are weak at the catcher position and his bat should play well and likely move faster.  I could also see them going pitcher and Clark wouldn't be a bad choice either but I think Teel makes the most sense for them IMO.

The rest of the draft is anybody's guess.  Just way too many variables and guys are ranked really closely so just depends on what a team wants and what level of risk they want to take on.

I like the mock it looks as solid as anything I have seen online.  Thanks for sharing it with us!

[gunnarthor]

I don't know enough about this draft to say that drafting Teel is a mistake so I'll let the FO make its pick and hope it's a good one. That said, they've made a few bad ones and they sometimes try to get cute. So, let's hope they made a few changes to their process.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd certainly be more excited about this than one of Gonzalez or Wilson. I can get behind this for sure.

 

Who would you have at 34 in this scenario?

[Mike Sixel]

Wow, Clark falling to 10? That would be a dream scenario for some team if you could trade draft picks......

I'm good with Teel. I'm good with Lowder. I'm good with Clark. Any of those three if the draft fell this way (I clearly only go by what I read.....).

[Jocko87]

34 minutes ago, Dman said:

I still think Texas might go with Teel.  They are weak at the catcher position and his bat should play well and likely move faster.  I could also see them going pitcher and Clark wouldn't be a bad choice either but I think Teel makes the most sense for them IMO.

This would be great for the Twins.  I hate the idea of a catcher in the top 5 that isn't a Mauer or Adley.  Then we need a couple someones to fall in love with a high schooler and then there's options at #5.  There isn't a Kumar Rocker but there is a wildcard somewhere. 

Hard to see Clark falling that far without a few consensus high risers though.  At 10 does he even sign?  I generally scoff at a couple hundred thousand making a difference in the top ten but that's at least two million.

[Mike Sixel]

Teel could be a good enough hitter to play first or OF.....if he's close to what some think, he's a top 5-10 catcher. That is 100% worth the fifth pick. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If it is true that Boras and Crews want nothing to do with Pittsburg that is exactly what the Twins need to happen in this draft.  In stead of Clark falling to 10,  a very real possibility Clark goes 1 at a discounted price.   That drops the big 3 down to picks 2-4 and the Twins money can then come into play,  along with the Texans being high on the high school players as well.  That would allow either Skenes or Langford to fall to 5.  That is the best case outcome for the Twins or something funky that would allow Crews to get to 5 which would be crazy town.  

[ashbury]

I still feel elite catcher is a rich team's luxury for when all other needs are filled.  I don't remember why Teel is not in the consensus top five, but the Twins need to be really sure of their player evaluation skills relative to other competent organizations if they take the catcher.  As others have said, don't try to get cute at #5.

[SGL]

Clark is one of the 5 generational talents in this draft.  They had better not settle for less.  This team needs hitters.  Teel is just an afterthought.  Nothing more.

[gman]

The Twins don't seem to be very good at drafting and developing hitters. I am not saying the pitchers available are better players than the hitters, but maybe the team needs to go with their strength development wise. Take the best pitcher available.

[SteveLV]

If the top 4 taken in whatever order are:  Crews, Skenes, Langford and Jenkins, my rankings for the 5 pick would be:

Clark

[medium gap]

Lowdon

[significant gap]

Teel

Clark could be very, very special.  We need a no-doubt CF prospect in the pipeline with Buxton seemingly never to play there again (so sad).

Lowdon could be a stud, and he was a stud at the highest level of college BB this year.

Teel would not even be on the radar is not playing C, and I am not convinced on his D at that position at the MLB level.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

20 minutes ago, SGL said:

Clark is one of the 5 generational talents in this draft.  They had better not settle for less.  This team needs hitters.  Teel is just an afterthought.  Nothing more.

I think it is quite strong to call Clark or Jenkins a generational talent.  The only generational talents are Skenes and Crews.  Both would have been the number 1 picks in the last 5-6 drafts.  As to Langford,  he is right up there just a tad behind.  Likely a 1st round pick in many of the previous 6 years.   Clark and Jenkins both don't seem like can't miss prospects.  Clark, not enough power, Jenkins still has some holes in his swing.  Give me a more polished hitter that shows can hit elite pitching or an elite pitcher.  To me there are 3 elite prospects and likely only 2 that the Twins would consider at 5 which is disappointing.  I do think Teel could be the Twins pick.  Will just have to wait and see.  

[Jeremy Nygaard]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd certainly be more excited about this than one of Gonzalez or Wilson. I can get behind this for sure.

 

Who would you have at 34 in this scenario?

I could see a prep pitcher to the Twins at #34 if one they like tumbles that far. That demographic is so hard to pinpoint. Blake Walters (Texas HS) maybe. The Twins have really hit California and the southeast (Georgia, North Carolina, etc) hard recently, so maybe they stay the college route with versatile Cole Carrigg (San Diego St) or Gino Groover (NC State).

[chpettit19]

Take the highest ceiling player. From what I've read that's Clark (as far as who's likely to be available). Public "experts" are wrong all the time, but there doesn't seem to be any wavering on this top 5 being the clear 5 best players in the draft, and all likely #1 overall picks the vast majority of years. Let's get some dynamic, young talent in the system. A 4 tool CFer, who may be a Corbin Carroll clone and become a 5 tool guy, sure sounds like a dynamic, young talent to me. They passed on the real Carroll before. Don't do it a 2nd time.

[Cap'n Piranha]

If the Twins are truly taking a non-top 5 at 5, it better be to save money to convince someone else to keep falling.  In this case, the player I would want to fall is Bradfield.  I would absolutely love to have a speedy, contact-oriented plus defender in Center.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Take the highest ceiling player. From what I've read that's Clark (as far as who's likely to be available). Public "experts" are wrong all the time, but there doesn't seem to be any wavering on this top 5 being the clear 5 best players in the draft, and all likely #1 overall picks the vast majority of years. Let's get some dynamic, young talent in the system. A 4 tool CFer, who may be a Corbin Carroll clone and become a 5 tool guy, sure sounds like a dynamic, young talent to me. They passed on the real Carroll before. Don't do it a 2nd time.

Preach 

[TNtwins85]

No way Clark drops that far. I don’t think we should take a pitcher that high put we really need to if there’s any chance of ace material there which dollander might be with some professional coaching. My thoughts are if Max Clark is there at 5 you take him. Historically catchers taken that high don’t seem to become the studs they’re made out to be once they reach the majors. If he was a Joe Mauer type then sure but Teel isn’t even in the same universe. Especially when you literally win the lottery and nab the 5th pick.

[DocBauer]

I wouldn't be upset if they grabbed Teel. It's a huge upside pick. A quality catcher who can hit, with a LH bat, seemingly good contact skills, a plus arm, and power. And a much better athlete than normal for the position. He might end up working with Jeffers in 2yrs and form a hell of a combo, right as Vazquez's deal expires. It's hard to find 2 way catchers like him.

So why do I give pause? Am I just feeling paranoid? I 100% understand that the front of this draft is LOADED. But even then, why isn't Teel in more discussion as a top 5 or 6 pick? I mean, again, offensive, athletic, strong armed catchers with a lefty bat don't grow on trees! Is it simply the depth at the top of the 1st round? Is it a question that his offensive explosion this year is questioned by some, even though he was still very good the year before? Is there some concern he might not stick at catcher despite his arm and athleticism and might end up an average 1B or OF?

He excites me but makes me nervous.

Everything I hear and read seems to indicate Langford and Clark are about as "can't miss" as you can get, while also filling an organizational/team need. I just hope the FO drafts one of those 2 and doesn't try to overthink this one.

[Chris Spencer]

Every time the Twins go against the rankings it blows up in thier face. Sabato, Cavaco and so on. Take whichever one of the top 5 that is left. This front office is not that smart. They shocked me last year when they actually took Lee.

 

[Beast]

Just take BPA.

The take a lower ranked player to save some money for later strategy isn’t something we need to do every year, and I’m not convinced it’s actually a viable strategy.  What have we gotten out of that strategy to date?  Enlow?

If Teel is actually BPA, so be it.  I’m not a huge fan of taking a catcher that early unless they’re a fairly clear cut star (Mauer, Rutschman, etc.).  I don’t know enough to say he is or isn’t, but I’d rather go with one of the big 5.

We seem to hear every year that teams cool on the top guys right before the draft, and actually like player X who is ranked lower.  Its a negotiating tactic.

[SGL]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Just take BPA.

The take a lower ranked player to save some money for later strategy isn’t something we need to do every year, and I’m not convinced it’s actually a viable strategy.  What have we gotten out of that strategy to date?  Enlow?

If Teel is actually BPA, so be it.  I’m not a huge fan of taking a catcher that early unless they’re a fairly clear cut star (Mauer, Rutschman, etc.).  I don’t know enough to say he is or isn’t, but I’d rather go with one of the big 5.

We seem to hear every year that teams cool on the top guys right before the draft, and actually like player X who is ranked lower.  Its a negotiating tactic.

 

[TNtwins85]

13 hours ago, Chris Spencer said:

Every time the Twins go against the rankings it blows up in thier face. Sabato, Cavaco and so on. Take whichever one of the top 5 that is left. This front office is not that smart. They shocked me last year when they actually took Lee.

 

Jeffers? Granted he’s not a superstar but a 2nd round pick I believe that’s a reach at the time is up and contributing in 2 years is a win. But to your point that’s one of many reaches they’ve made that we’re still waiting on.

[TNtwins85]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I wouldn't be upset if they grabbed Teel. It's a huge upside pick. A quality catcher who can hit, with a LH bat, seemingly good contact skills, a plus arm, and power. And a much better athlete than normal for the position. He might end up working with Jeffers in 2yrs and form a hell of a combo, right as Vazquez's deal expires. It's hard to find 2 way catchers like him.

So why do I give pause? Am I just feeling paranoid? I 100% understand that the front of this draft is LOADED. But even then, why isn't Teel in more discussion as a top 5 or 6 pick? I mean, again, offensive, athletic, strong armed catchers with a lefty bat don't grow on trees! Is it simply the depth at the top of the 1st round? Is it a question that his offensive explosion this year is questioned by some, even though he was still very good the year before? Is there some concern he might not stick at catcher despite his arm and athleticism and might end up an average 1B or OF?

He excites me but makes me nervous.

Everything I hear and read seems to indicate Langford and Clark are about as "can't miss" as you can get, while also filling an organizational/team need. I just hope the FO drafts one of those 2 and doesn't try to overthink this one.

I would have to agree on Teel. Maybe he becomes a solid backstop or even an all star backstop. His pedigree is good and I like that in a player almost more than the analytics sometimes. But when there is star power available at the 5th pick in a 5 tool player you’ve gotta go that route. If Clark is as good as advertised then we have a CFer in 3 years who’s got the ability to take over games. If the Twins are gonna draft out of the 2nd tier of players we should take Lowder and plug him into the rotation by the middle to end of next year. A solid 3 maybe even a 2 for the next 6 years. Idk, my opinion but if one of Langford, Jenkins or Clark is available we just need to not overthink this pick and just go with the star power that’s available. Lol

[saviking]

IF, Kyle Teel is above average on defense I would love this pick. He has a direct path to the Bigs in 2026. We have all the talent we need in the infield and outfield for the near future so why not lock down the catcher position. His left handed bat would go nicely with Jeffers right handed bat as well ..

[Jocko87]

On 6/30/2023 at 9:36 AM, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I think it's less what Dylan Crews wants and more what Scott Boras wants for Dylan Crews.

You may be right... but when the bat is on par with the other bats they seem to be considering, being a catcher (and a left-handed hitting one) might be enough to tip the scale.

Do you have good list of who is repping who? I’m not finding much and agents may determine the whole top 5.  

[Fatbat]

I still think Clarke is gone by pick 5 and Teel is borderline top 10-20. I doubt the FO will pick out of the top 5 plus throw in Lowder/Dollander for conversation since they are both top of the rotation guys. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

On 7/2/2023 at 1:12 AM, Jocko87 said:

Do you have good list of who is repping who? I’m not finding much and agents may determine the whole top 5.  

No. I'm reading between the lines and assuming that Boras has Crews and Jenkins, but not the other three.