Week in Review: Momentum Killers

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

It's absolutely ridiculous that this teams best hitter is a 35 yr. Old backup utility player (Solano).

This year Carlos Correa leads the Twins in total bases, with 97.  Meanwhile Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 175; Carlos ties for 103rd most.  We don't meaningfully have a "best hitter" on the team.  It's like declearing which of Snow White's little friends was the tallest. 

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, ashbury said:

This year Carlos Correa leads the Twins in total bases, with 97.  Meanwhile Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 175; Carlos ties for 103rd most.  We don't meaningfully have a "best hitter" on the team.  It's like arguing over which of Snow White's little friends was the tallest. 

It was Doc

[ashbury]

Just now, Riverbrian said:

It was Doc

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not quite where you are yet when it comes to the actual pointing of weapons at them but I got some the same concerns. 

This probably doesn't help but in the step in a right direction category. With the team basically healthy... at least in the OF.

Kepler has sat 4 of the last 6 games. Two were against left handed starters but that's 50% against right handed starters. 

One of those starts was with Varland on the mound and I think it's possible that Kepler will be a personal OF caddy for Varland because of Varland's fly ball ratios. 

In other words... we may be looking at the beginning of the end. 😎

It's a step in the right direction. A step they should've taken a month ago, but a step none the less.

But when Max is sitting there it still tempts Rocco to use him. And he ends up pinch hitting in tight spots, and, shockingly, not coming through. That's a bigger complaint with the overreliance on platooning/pinch hitting, though. 

I hope the middle, and end, of the end are a much quicker process than the beginning of the end has been.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's a step in the right direction. A step they should've taken a month ago, but a step none the less.

But when Max is sitting there it still tempts Rocco to use him. And he ends up pinch hitting in tight spots, and, shockingly, not coming through. That's a bigger complaint with the overreliance on platooning/pinch hitting, though. 

I hope the middle, and end, of the end are a much quicker process than the beginning of the end has been.

I'm with ya

Signing the wrong player is a mistake that I can live with. Doubling down on the mistake with playing time is one that I can't. 

It's not what you do... It what you do after that matters. 

[lukeduke1980]

Attendance was solid over the Detroit series so I'm assuming changes are minimal as long it people show up and 1st place is within reach

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm pretty good at seeing the angle the Twins may be taking on certain things, and the logic behind it. I annoy plenty of people around here by defending some of their logic. But I literally can't see, or understand, any logic behind Kepler still being on this team. Not just being on the team, but starting basically automatically against any righty, and not just starting, but hitting 5th(!) in the lineup. Or pinch hitting late in the game in clutch situations. The logic can't be because he's good, because he clearly isn't. The logic can't be for depth reasons since he's starting, and he's playing worse than a replacement level player anyways, so you're actively starting a bad player in the name of not having to start a bad player. The logic can't be his defense since he plays an "offense first" position.

My "fire or not fire" decision making point on the FO this year was their ability to adapt off "the plan" quickly if needed. They've failed. You wanted Kepler to be good. He isn't. You wanted him to build up some trade value since you apparently turned down offers in the offseason you didn't think were good enough. He hasn't, and can't at this point. He's actively hurting your team. Do your f'ing job and cut him loose. 

I don't know what the conversations in the FO are like these days, but there's no way they can be looking at this team and think that standing pat until the deadline is smart. They simply can't be thinking that. I don't know what the conversations in the manager's office are like these days, but there's no way they can be looking at Byron Buxton and thinking he should be hitting in the top 4 in any lineup right now. They simply can't be thinking that. But they do it. I don't see any of the logic in what the team is doing anymore. Pinch hitting for your 3 hole hitter? If he needs to be pinch hit for he shouldn't be hitting 3rd. And you shouldn't be pinch hitting for your supposed star in the making when you have at least 7 dudes in the lineup everyday who shouldn't be in any lineup. There's talent on this team. There's talent in the system. But "the plan" clearly isn't working. It's too late in the season to still be analyzing things. Time to start making actual decisions. And I really hope the Pohlads don't let these guys make "job saving" decisions, and do severe damage to the future of this organization.

100% this. I went to fire the FO two weeks ago, and their unwillingness to move on from Kepler, STILL, only cements that in my mind. Their inability to build a complete team despite a real budget and this pitching staff is mind boggling. Now, party of that is Buxton (and CC and Polanco) not hitting or being healthy, but that's not all of the issue.

They just refuse to bite the bullet here. They NEED offense, desperately. 

As for Buxton? No idea what to do here, frankly. 

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I can name them all

Sleepy, Dopey, Irritable, Ecstatic, Apprehensive, Sneezy and Doc

[Beast]

The list of moves this FO has made is incredible.  You could literally take any random person off the street and they couldn’t have done worse.

Acquiring Cruz and the Cruz/Ryan deal  were very good ones, but I’m not sure I see another quality move they’ve made.

I loved the Lopez/Arraez trade at the time it happened.  I don’t think there’s a reasonable person that wouldn’t undo that if given the chance.  Lopez has proved to be decent.  Not great.  Meanwhile, Arraez is hitting .400 and we can’t score a run.

I wasn’t a huge fan of Lopez/Cano swap at the time.  But, holy cow has that turned out to be a godawful move.  Baltimore clearly knew something was up with Lopez (or, anyone that’s really studied his long term track record) and they absolutely fleeced Falvine.

The Mahle trade is an absolute disaster.

The Rogers/Paddack deal hasn’t really been anything detrimental.  But, they got no value out of what was a slightly valuable asset at the time Rogers.

We’ve called for them to be aggressive, and they have been.  I’ll give them a sliver of credit for that.  But, who the heck is the finally sign off on these player evaluations?  I’ve like some of these moves on the surface, as have many of us, but we’re not being paid 6 figures to get these evaluations right.

Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt  on the trades.  But, their roster management has also been absolutely abysmal.  IL management is awful.  They haven’t found a way to keep guys healthy.  They’ve done things like sending Ober, who has turned out to be our best pitcher, to AAA to throw games away for a guy like Maeda who clearly didn’t have it.  

Is there a FO doing a worse job with the resources they have in the MLB right now?  We used to be able to make the excuse of payroll constraints with the Ryan regime….that’s not there anymore (to a certain extent).

All that venting on the FO aside - that Detroit series was the most disappointing series I recall (other than the playoffs) in a long, long time.  It’s a wonder that anybody is showing up the ballpark to watch this.

 

[Brett]

Is it legal to put Buxton on the IL until he’s well enough to play CF? I’m sure Julien and Wallner would be capable fill-ins at DH.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

100% this. I went to fire the FO two weeks ago, and their unwillingness to move on from Kepler, STILL, only cements that in my mind. Their inability to build a complete team despite a real budget and this pitching staff is mind boggling. Now, party of that is Buxton (and CC and Polanco) not hitting or being healthy, but that's not all of the issue.

They just refuse to bite the bullet here. They NEED offense, desperately. 

As for Buxton? No idea what to do here, frankly. 

I don't know that I'd call it hubris like some around here do, but their refusal to accept what's actually happening in a given year vs what they planned for/hoped to happen is mind blowing. Buxton in the 3 hole today. Why? For what reason? Drop him down! If that's going to shatter him mentally to hit 6th instead of 3rd you invested in the wrong guy and you need to ask him to waive his no trade clause. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not including Wallner's minor league work during this 30 day time frame. 

In the past 30 days Wallner has as many or more hits with the Twins than Gallo, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Larnach. 

Wallner has out hit those guys and was only on the roster for 3 games in the past 30 days.   

 

 

That a BIG OUCH ...

[Woof Bronzer]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know that I'd call it hubris like some around here do, but their refusal to accept what's actually happening in a given year vs what they planned for/hoped to happen is mind blowing. 

This is what happens when you prioritize process over results.  I am not at all convinced Falvine think there is a problem here, just like they didn't think there was a problem last year (blaming it on injuries/trainer, publicly stating that the bullpen wasn't a priority, etc).  That's really the only explanation for not changing anything.  

 

[chpettit19]

Just now, Woof Bronzer said:

This is what happens when you prioritize process over results.  I am not at all convinced Falvine think there is a problem here, just like they didn't think there was a problem last year (blaming it on injuries/trainer, publicly stating that the bullpen wasn't a priority, etc).  That's really the only explanation for not changing anything.  

 

I'd argue team building is about process overall, but in season decisions are about results. 

I think you need sound, and repeatable, processes to build a sustained winner. You're not always going to get the results you want, but, if your processes are good, you get the desired results more often than not. I believe in breaking the season into 3rds (54 games each), and after the 1st third of a season the process for decision making should be about results from that year. 54 games is enough sample size to know what people are that year. 

Sometimes that sample size tells you a guy needs a tweak, and sometimes it tells you Max Kepler is toast, and no longer MLB worthy. My problem is with their in season process. It seems to be that their in season process is to believe in their offseason process even when in season results don't match. And that's a problem to me.

I want a FO to rely on good processes over short-term results, because that's how you build a sustainable winner. Houston, Atlanta, LA, Tampa, etc. are process over results in the macro view as well. It's how good organizations are run. But they're willing to make adjustments off their process in the micro view when the results for certain players just aren't there. That's part of their process. It sure doesn't seem to be part of the Twins process.

My best hope for a defense of the FO is that it's money driven, and the Pohlads won't let them eat contracts of a certain size. If that's the case I give a little more leeway to the FO. But I don't think it's the case when you're talking about replacing a guy with a league minimum player. But it's the best answer I can come up with for an explanation.

[HokieRif]

6 hours ago, HokieRif said:

I think we need to rename the “Week in Review” to “Let’s Re-Live Last Week’s Nightmare”

I hate quoting myself but I wish to amend my recommendation...

 

The Weak in Review

[Jeff D.]

I am hopeful the metics app for our team crashes and our dugout leader will actually have to think about a lineup and what the heck is going on during the game. GEEEEEZZZZZZEEEEEEE, is this a flat, mismanaged team.

Twins Geezer out.

GO TWINS!

[KirbyDome89]

Correa as truly and fully awakened? Yeah, the HR against Milwaukee was big, no doubt. Then he points to his imaginary watch and promptly goes 3-15 in 4 games vs. Detroit with one XBH. I mean....

[rwilfong86]

22 hours ago, bronald3030 said:

How much longer do we have to watch Gallo and Kepler strike out ? Cut bait and let Larnach and Wallner develope. They might not do any better, but they might have a future.

Agreed. It's worse to watch the offense be so futile when they have better options at AAA. 

[rwilfong86]

10 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

First off, let's all wish Lopez well and hope he is getting the care he needs.

Mental health IS physical health... the brain is the most complex and least understood organ in the body. 

Second, kudos Nick for a thoughtful and accurate summary of the current status of the Twins.

Finally, my summary... wake up FO and start working the obvious problems!

Absolutely, when the mind isn't right the rest of the body isn't gonna function right.

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Attendance was solid over the Detroit series so I'm assuming changes are minimal as long it people show up and 1st place is within reach

Well that won't last. The Twins went in the tank the last half of last season, the Vikings will soon be practicing and their scrimmages will out draw the Twins.

[mikelink45]

I am out of my frustrations.  To some of your frustration I have been against Gallo before we even knew we could sign such a bargain.  I did not care if we signed Correa, but don't mind that we did.  I have advocated for trading Buxton (not Kepler - who wants him, just cut him), I did not want Lopez and Pagan back and I think Polanco if he gets healthy is our only trade chip.  This team has no spirit, no willingness to claw and scratch and make this lousy (worse than that actually) division gives us false hope.  Do I want to get in the playoffs to lose again - no.  I do not like management from FO to coaching staff.  They all get together for advanced sessions of back slapping, but who is in charge?  Who makes the tough decision?  Who cuts the players who do not make the grade?  Sorry, but this excellent summary was also a call out to our worst feelings.

[Minny505]

On 6/18/2023 at 7:33 PM, bronald3030 said:

How much longer do we have to watch Gallo and Kepler strike out ? Cut bait and let Larnach and Wallner develope. They might not do any better, but they might have a future.

 

On 6/19/2023 at 5:44 AM, HokieRif said:

cut Gallo and insert Garlick  could be a wash, but a significant cost-cutting wash

Gallo is in a rough slump, but it would be a huge mistake to cut him if your goal is to improve the offense.

Gallo has the 4th best OPS and xwOBA on the team. He has more RBI and Runs than Solano in less plate appearances. 

He may be part of the problem right now, but has been part of the solution for most of the season.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

 

Gallo... may be part of the problem right now, but has been part of the solution for most of the season.

Gallo has been part of the problem since late April.

That OPS has been sinking like a rock ever since. 

He spent some time on the IL, but he has 4 hits the entire month of June.

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Gallo has been part of the problem since late April.

That OPS has been sinking like a rock ever since. 

He spent some time on the IL, but he has 4 hits the entire month of June.

Yeah, every argument in his favor, whether counting stats or rate/percentages, is fueled by his first 15 starts of the season.  Maybe he's capable of heating up again, but right now it's what have you done for us lately, Joey?

[Minny505]

28 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Gallo has been part of the problem since late April.

That OPS has been sinking like a rock ever since. 

He spent some time on the IL, but he has 4 hits the entire month of June.

There is no use in defending his recent performance. Put him on the bench. Or bat him 7/8 in the lineup, which has been the case.

My only point is that the calls for DFAing him over other players, such as optioning/ILing Castro, Lewis, Julien, or Buxton, are oozing with recency bias. Other than Buxton, Gallo is likely to help the team produce more runs on offense than any of those players over the rest of the 2023 season.

Gallo carried the team for the first 2+ weeks and then was rather average-ish (meaning: not part of the problem) until his most recent IL stint. 

I'd at least give until the trade deadline, see if he can catch one more hot run, then try to flip him to a contender for a prospect or two. His potential upside is worth the wait.

Regardless, I think we can all agree, that was a inexcusable signing for this team.