How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ma...........Max Kepler?

[stringer bell]

Max Kepler has been a topic of discussion for much of this season. After two subpar years, many on this board were ready to cut bait for the second-longest tenured Twin before the season started. His performance since the start of the season has only increased the scrutiny on him, his spot on the roster and in the batting order. 

Kepler started the seaon in the deep freeze and after he got his first two hits of the season, he went on the IL. Coming back from the Injured List, he started to hit acceptably but had another trip to the IL and this time he has struggled mightily. Max's overall numbers in 140 PAs include a .640 OPS and 77 OPS+. For a right fielder, those numbers are unacceptable. He has accumulated only .1 WAR, because of his still very good defense.

It is up to the Twins' front office to decide if they want to part company with Kepler. At this point, betting on better performance from either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner should be a worthy gamble, and really not much of a risk. Max's batting average has decreased every year since 2019 (26 y.o. year) as has his OPS and OPS+. There just doesn't look to be any upside.

The options for parting company include a DFA and a trade. Looking at a trade, which might give some value for a player who once was valuable, one needs to look at who might be interested and what those interested would be willing to give in return. There are other teams that haven't had great production from their corner outfielders, including some that figure to contend. I would assume most of those teams are not looking for a veteran, but will try players from their own system and what they are willing to give for Kepler would be minimal unless the Twins take on Max's salary ($8.5M), I can't imagine any non-contender would be interested. 

A DFA would mean the approximately $5M owed Kepler (+ $1M buyout) would be lost. I doubt the Twins want to do that right now, particularly given the injury history of many players who would figure to replace Kepler. 

In my opinion, the thing to do as this time is to recall a replacement for Kepler and carry him as a backup outfielder. This plan isn't as simple as all that. Kepler won't be happy with a demotion and there currently isn't room on the active roster for him. Max is the second most senior player on the team and is a well-regarded professional. What to do with Max Kepler?

[mnfireman]

There have been plenty of big name player's DFA'd this year that were still owed big MLB $$$, Hicks, Dozier, Voit, Engel and Hosmer among others. I think its a cost the team could absorb if they are getting production out of league minimum type (Wallner, Larnach).

I am a big fan of Kepler, but it might be time for a change of scenery.

[Mike Sixel]

Eat his salary, and trade for a high variance lottery ticket. They aren't winning with him.....they may as well try the unknowns.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Eat his salary, and trade for a high variance lottery ticket. They aren't winning with him.....they may as well try the unknowns.

If no one will do that, DFA him, but I think someone would give something for Max.

[Riverbrian]

Replace him at the trade deadline for rental. 

He's got until Late July to start showing us something. 

Tick Tick Tick

Until then... Castro and others are given a fair chance to out play him. Which they have at this point. 

 

[chpettit19]

Certainly see if you can get someone to give you a lottery ticket for him if you eat his salary, but I'm not sure you'll find many takers. He's unplayable right now, and even teams who need OF bats like Cleveland probably don't see him as an upgrade (unless Cleveland thinks he can hit there like he has as a Twin, then he's an MVP candidate!). If I were the FO he wouldn't see another AB for the Twins. And I've liked Kepler. Think they did him a disservice by hitting him too high in the lineup most years. He was a solid 7-9 hitter with gold glove type defense in the OF. Instead they tried to hit him top 5 and he simply isn't that guy. His time with the Twins has come to an end, though. Time to move on.

Also, A+ thread title.

[Althebum82]

It's not like he is void of any value like Hicks seemed to be, but it is hard to envision any team willing to exchange much to acquire him.  It is hard to watch the two players you mention tearing up AAA.   I used to think Willi Castro was an easy demotion and Kepler could maintain his role on the roster.  That opinion has proven very, very wrong.  If Hicks doesn't stick maybe the Orioles would consider Kepler, but otherwise I do believe that it would benefit the team to DFA.

[nicksaviking]

I'd rather not wait until July, which is probably how long it would take to make even the most minimal of trade. I'd DFA him, which could start a trade dialogue with another team anyway. But if nothing comes of it, than he's free to make his own way.

And really isn't that what all of this hemming and hawing is all about? It's about respecting a long time player, isn't it? Otherwise he'd be riding the pine watching the young guys play right now. Letting him choose his next team would be a better concession to him than taking away his agency or letting him stew about his backup role on the bench.

[Puckett34]

I think he'll need to be included in a deadline deal or DFA'd, but the Twins will need to eat his salary either way.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Letting him choose his next team would be a better concession to him than taking away his agency.

Good point. 

An immediate DFA just might be the only thing that saves him. 

[CRF]

Like a lot of you, I jumped off the Kep bandwagon a long time ago. At this point, I doubt that he'd bring much return, in terms of a trade. That window is closed. We should have traded him last season, or before this one. Waiting until this years deadline isn't a solution...something has to be done asap. I really think the best thing to do, would be to DFA him. I don't know if our FO is willing to eat the remainder of his contract. I honestly wonder if there's something wrong with his eyes? When he's at bat, he's continually blinking and seems to be straining his eyes waiting for the pitch. In any event, it's way past time to get someone else out there. It's too bad...he seems like a decent guy, and I don't think anyone has ever heard a bad word about him, but it's time to move on. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Certainly see if you can get someone to give you a lottery ticket for him if you eat his salary, but I'm not sure you'll find many takers. He's unplayable right now, and even teams who need OF bats like Cleveland probably don't see him as an upgrade (unless Cleveland thinks he can hit there like he has as a Twin, then he's an MVP candidate!). If I were the FO he wouldn't see another AB for the Twins. And I've liked Kepler. Think they did him a disservice by hitting him too high in the lineup most years. He was a solid 7-9 hitter with gold glove type defense in the OF. Instead they tried to hit him top 5 and he simply isn't that guy. His time with the Twins has come to an end, though. Time to move on.

Also, A+ thread title.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. This is a classic situation of mismatched expectations. We and the team all expected Max to be a middle of the order bat who played great defense in RF. He had that one year in 2019 and has gone south since. His descent is currently picking up speed. He turned out to be a glove first OF who is not been able to maintain even a mediocre offensive output as he ages. It is unfortunate but it's time for him to be replaced by either Larnach or Wallner, or some combination of them.

I know this is going to be tough because he is a long tenured Twin. I just don't think it will be good for the clubhouse if he simply becomes a bench player because I don't think he will take it well. I don't think anybody would take it well in his situation. I would love to trade him for frankly almost anything respectable but I don't know that that opportunity is available. Whether or not we can trade him for something, I think we've hit the point where we need to part ways and get the at bats for the other guys. An IL stint followed by a rehab in AAA followed by trade would be ideal. If that isn't an available option, I think you got to trade or DFA him and I think you have to do it soon.

By the way, great original post and great title. Should be in the running for post of the month!

[LA VIkes Fan]

3 minutes ago, CRF said:

Like a lot of you, I jumped off the Kep bandwagon a long time ago. At this point, I doubt that he'd bring much return, in terms of a trade. That window is closed. We should have traded him last season, or before this one. Waiting until this years deadline isn't a solution...something has to be done asap. I really think the best thing to do, would be to DFA him. I don't know if our FO is willing to eat the remainder of his contract. I honestly wonder if there's something wrong with his eyes? When he's at bat, he's continually blinking and seems to be straining his eyes waiting for the pitch. In any event, it's way past time to get someone else out there. It's too bad...he seems like a decent guy, and I don't think anyone has ever heard a bad word about him, but it's time to move on. 

Funny you should mention his eyes. I watched some of the recent games and saw the same thing. First, it looked like he was having trouble seeing at the plate. Then, that was the same game where he butchered a line drive hit right at him. I wonder if he has had a eye test recently?

[MTV]

I still think Kep still has some Value, at least more value than a DFA or a space where the Twins eat his salary. I think he’d be worth a solid prospect or 2, but I do think the trade deadline is the place to swap him. My ideal trade for Kepler is to trade him and Donovan Solano to the Seattle Mariners for OF Jonatan Clase and RHP Prelander Berroa, the M’s #12 and #14 prospects. Clase has had a breakout year and is one of the fastest players in the minors, and looks like a prime candidate to cover center Field. He’s already stolen 36 bags in 48 games, on top of posting a .952 OPS. On the other hand, Berroa has electric stuff and would work well in a high-leverage relief role, which the Twins need right now. He’s held a modest ERA around 4.5, and is beginning to transition into a relief role in the high minors.

[Nine of twelve]

A player can't be traded unless another team is willing to give up an asset to get him. I don't see that being the case. Other teams aren't blind; they know it's pretty much certain he'll be DFA'd soon and if someone thinks he's worth a roster spot they can get him for nothing when that happens.

[LA VIkes Fan]

19 minutes ago, MTV said:

I still think Kep still has some Value, at least more value than a DFA or a space where the Twins eat his salary. I think he’d be worth a solid prospect or 2, but I do think the trade deadline is the place to swap him. My ideal trade for Kepler is to trade him and Donovan Solano to the Seattle Mariners for OF Jonatan Clase and RHP Prelander Berroa, the M’s #12 and #14 prospects. Clase has had a breakout year and is one of the fastest players in the minors, and looks like a prime candidate to cover center Field. He’s already stolen 36 bags in 48 games, on top of posting a .952 OPS. On the other hand, Berroa has electric stuff and would work well in a high-leverage relief role, which the Twins need right now. He’s held a modest ERA around 4.5, and is beginning to transition into a relief role in the high minors.

I'd love it for you to be right but I don't see any way that Kepler and Solano get that kind of return. Remember, Solano is a 35 year old who plays little to no defense and doesn't run very well. He was a street free agent when the Twins picked him up. Maybe if Kepler got hot we could get something for him but I just don't see him being worth much more than a lottery ticket prospect or 2 or salary relief, and probably not both. 

[tony&rodney]

Ask Max what he wants. 

[DJL44]

Are there any 2023-24 free agent relievers who have been okay but underperforming their contract? I'm thinking Kepler for Wandy Peralta or something similar. Trading for a 40 FV prospect is probably the best route, then they can trade a different 40 FV prospect for a relief pitcher.

[gman]

Kepler is gone after this season at the latest. Sooner would probably be better, if you can get productive at bats this year and future years from the rookies. Trade him if you can find a taker. May wind up rotating Wallner and Larnach between the Twins and ST Paul with the hot bat in the Twins lineup hopefully. They need consistent hitting help.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Ask Max what he wants. 

He wants starter's minutes, and then for his option for next year to be picked up. 🤩

[RickOShea]

1st off, I like Kepler, but not his play.  I think this is a truism for most of us.  However, I always thought he was a bit stubborn in his inability or desire to change his at bat approaches.  Rolling the ball over to the right side and pop ups are Kepler signature at bats.  For this reason his value serves as a negative to the younger players.  Adjustments, is what baseball is all about, and Kepler has never been able to embrace that aspect for any significant period of time.

It's time to cut bait with Kepler and move on.  Get what you can for him.  almost anything would be a plus for the Twins, right now.  The FO should not hold the rest of the team hostage, because of Kepler's contract, or some other reason they choose not to reveal.  There is no transparency when they discuss Kepler, or at least a transparency that is plausible.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I voted to make him a utility outfielder because he does provide depth.  What if we DFA him and one or two outfielders get injured?  We are then back to what we were last year with Cave types.

Although I like MAT better in CF, he could get some playing time there against RHP's.

Lastly, I agree with noticing him blinking while at bat. He does not strike out a lot and rarely seems to barrel anything up getting lots of pop up and grounders.  Maybe his eyesight is not allowing him to hit the ball squarely.  I wonder if the team has at least given him an eye exam.  What's to lose?

 

[sun]

Because it was reported that Max was battling migrains & was day to day, I'll bet that he's going to be given time to try to get himself right. 

He's played in 7 games since his return and was able to get a hit in 3 games scoring 2 runs. I doubt that the Twins are ready to DFA him just yet. He's not the only Twins player that's struggling. But he needs to show quick improvement or the FO will need to send him back to the IL & maybe even make him do a  rehab stint as a last resort if they don't want him playing at less than 100%.

He's a potential CF'er so he has some insurance value to the team. 

Migrains

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-max-kepler-battling-migraines/

Splits

https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-mlb&year=2023

 

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, sun said:

Because it was reported that Max was battling migrains & was day to day, I'll bet that he's going to be given time to try to get himself right. 

He's played in 7 games since his return and was able to get a hit in 3 games scoring 2 runs. I doubt that the Twins are ready to DFA him just yet. He's not the only Twins player that's struggling. But he needs to show quick improvement or the FO will need to send him back to the IL & maybe even make him do a  rehab stint as a last resort if they don't want him playing at less than 100%.

He's a potential CF'er so he has some insurance value to the team. 

Migrains

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-max-kepler-battling-migraines/

Splits

https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-mlb&year=2023

 

He's not a potential CF. He didn't play there at all last year when they were desperate. That time is gone. If he has migraines, IL him. 

[mrtwinsfan]

3 hours ago, MTV said:

I still think Kep still has some Value, at least more value than a DFA or a space where the Twins eat his salary. I think he’d be worth a solid prospect or 2, but I do think the trade deadline is the place to swap him. My ideal trade for Kepler is to trade him and Donovan Solano to the Seattle Mariners for OF Jonatan Clase and RHP Prelander Berroa, the M’s #12 and #14 prospects. Clase has had a breakout year and is one of the fastest players in the minors, and looks like a prime candidate to cover center Field. He’s already stolen 36 bags in 48 games, on top of posting a .952 OPS. On the other hand, Berroa has electric stuff and would work well in a high-leverage relief role, which the Twins need right now. He’s held a modest ERA around 4.5, and is beginning to transition into a relief role in the high minors.

 My ideal trade for Kepler is to trade him and Donovan Solano to the Seattle Mariners for OF Jonatan Clase and RHP Prelander Berroa, the M’s #12 and #14 prospects.?? Why do you think this ?   Maybe you forgot and its really   a #112  and  # 114  

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

He wants starter's minutes, and then for his option for next year to be picked up. 🤩

I suspect that Max Kepler wants a fresh start somewhere else. I totally doubt he cares too much about the money as he is already loaded. I have absolutely no idea but suspect he has not been real happy for several years, except in the offseason. Let him go.

[DocBauer]

As I've stated many times previously,, been a big and hopeful fan of Max since the day he signed. So it pains me to realize how things have turned out.

There has been mention in other posts previously that he could platoon some with Taylor in CF, playing some splits, rest Taylor more, and help free up another spot in the lineup for Larnach and/or Wallner. The problem there is, how much pushback do you get from Kepler on this? Secondly, as poor as Max is performing, do you even get production from him at that point? I don't have his splits in front of me, but considering how bad his numbers are, and the fact that he's generally facing RH most days, I see zero upside in even trying this approach. Bad production in RF isn't going to suddenly be better in CF.

I actually enjoy watching him play RF defense. He's smooth as hell and makes some great plays. And there is no question anyone else out there is going to give up some hits and sacrifice some out he would make. But at some point, there is a precipice, or a scale if you will, where the offensive production is just so poor that it overwhelms any defensive contribution on the plus side.

Each of the past few seasons, and offseasons, there have been articles written about metrics that indicate Kepler does a lot of things well, and is a victim of bad luck. Sometimes statistics and metrics lie. His BABIP over his entire career, with the possible exception of 2019, is amongst the worst of any regular in any lineup. It's never changed, and at this point, it's probably never going to change. I'm not saying he's a lousy ballplayer and doesn't do some things right. But his career offensive numbers, really, would only be acceptable for a great glove SS or top level catcher. And that's just reality as his numbers and OPS keep dropping year to year.

MEANWHILE, the Twins offense is struggling and needing productive bats, and they just happen to have a PAIR of them in Larnach and Wallner that, frankly, would be hard pressed to match the declining ineptitude we are witnessing. And while Kepler is not the only bat not performing, Correa and Buxton, even struggling, are out performing him. And each offers improvement possibilities very soon. Where is there any hope of Kep actually improving at this point?

While I am generally and admittedly a fan of this FO, perhaps my biggest issue with them is holding on to someone too long, for seemingly unknown reasons, that they just  "fall in love with" and can't seem to see the forest through the trees. Pitcher or position player, I ABSOLUTELY AGREE with giving a good player a little time to "get right". Why wouldn't you? No need to cut bait too quickly and regret it later. They did this with Duffey. But even then, they made the move to move on. 

And I don't want to come across as harsh or mean spirited in any way. But how many other ML teams would have Larnach and Wallner JUST SITTING THERE, with far more upside and just keep telling them to wait and rolling Kepler out there? How many teams, in any sport, would have a player rostered on a 4yr decline at this point? My goodness, the Twins could literally make room on the roster for Contreras tomorrow...also LH and a good defensive OF...having one of his best milb seasons ever, and AT WORST probably get the same, or similar production. And I don't think I'm exaggerating...very much at least.

They SHOULD have moved Kepler for whatever they could get for him this past offseason once they brought Gallo on board. I can kinda understand their reservation of keeping him as insurance with questions regarding Kiriloff and Larnach health wise, and a half season from Wallner at AAA in 2022. And maybe they had questions about Gordon proving his 2nd half in 2022 was real. But that's 4 GUYS to possibly fill 1 or maybe 2 spots. I can't even think of a good analogy where you have a broken down something that kinda works, but 4 more options that you haven't tried yet, or barely tried yet, and just being too damn stubborn to do so.

Again, I don't want to be harsh, but the Twins are WASTING opportunity this season by IGNORING obvious change to shake things up and BE BETTER offensively for one of the best pitching staffs we've had in YEARS. With an AVERAGE or just slightly above average offense, this team could/should be not only running away with the ALC, but they COULD/SHOULD be at LEAST 10 games above .500. 

Lewis and AK are special, and doing their job. More or less, the catchers are doing their job. Polanco continues to show how good he is when healthy. Buxton and Correa hurting a bit and struggling is a bummer, but we know how good they can be. Bench players are actually performing well, but stretched. Gallo has been Gallo, streaky, but as dangerous and productive as his "usual" self previously. Kepler is a huge black hole and preventing younger players with more upside from contributing and growing.

I know it's only June. And I expect the FO to continue to be conservative in regard to Kepler. Maybe hoping for a decent return in a trade. And Max will make a quality defensive play here and there, jack a HR, hit a nice double that means something, but otherwise flail and make weak contact in the interim. What they NEED TO DO is move him NOW..though early if anyone is interested...or just DFA him and make room while eating his contract.

Larnach has 1 less HR, and way more RBI, and a higher OPS despite his "struggles" and recent IL stint from pneumonia than Kepler. My goodness, we have utility players out performing Kepler at this point!

The craziest thing to me is, the Twins are RIGHT NOW exactly where the FO wants them to be! The defense is solid, they have a great rotation, a solid pen that is getting better...even though it might need a tweak or two...and YOUNG TALENT ARRIVING and ready or near ready! The only thing really holding them back right now is the offense. So they'd rather have a major hole in their lineup instead of just ACCEPTING it's time to make a delayed move? 

I wish Max the best, I really do. But he should be gone tomorrow in trade of DFA and TRUST in your young talent. They're doing that with AK and Lewis, why in hell aren't they doing that for Larnach and Wallner?

[sun]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not a potential CF. He didn't play there at all last year when they were desperate. That time is gone. If he has migraines, IL him. 

Max played in CF during 3 games last year & in 22 games during 2021 when he was the starter in 19 games.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keplema01.shtml

[umterp23]

Kepler by metrics since everyone can find a metric to like and not like, so not going there.  Bottom line DocBauer summed it up, time to move on from Kepler plain and simple.  Wallner was on a heater when they felt the need to bring Kepler back and send Wallner down.  Terrible decision.

Why stop at Kepler, let's move Kepler and Miranda and Lopez all at the same time now.  Miranda has no defensive position and with Not Elite Buxton staying at DH, Miranda is a trade chip.  Lopez is this years version of Pagan.  Unload logjam pieces in Miranda and Kepler, sweeten the pot with Lopez and wish them well.  

Granted it takes two to tango in a trade deal but A's aren't going anywhere but Vegas.  Poach a Ruiz and anyone else we can get and ship Miranda out as A's 3rd basemen are really bad with both guys under .200 in avg and other key metrics.  

[UpstateNewYorker]

FWIW on the FS1 broadcast of the Twins-Guardians game last week, AJ Pierzynski discussed the Kepler situation and said that the FO has been reluctant to trade/DFA him for a while because he is one of the clubhouse leaders.