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Max Kepler has been a topic of discussion for much of this season. After two subpar years, many on this board were ready to cut bait for the second-longest tenured Twin before the season started. His performance since the start of the season has only increased the scrutiny on him, his spot on the roster and in the batting order. Kepler started the seaon in the deep freeze and after he got his first two hits of the season, he went on the IL. Coming back from the Injured List, he started to hit acceptably but had another trip to the IL and this time he has struggled mightily. Max's overall numbers in 140 PAs include a .640 OPS and 77 OPS+. For a right fielder, those numbers are unacceptable. He has accumulated only .1 WAR, because of his still very good defense. It is up to the Twins' front office to decide if they want to part company with Kepler. At this point, betting on better performance from either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner should be a worthy gamble, and really not much of a risk. Max's batting average has decreased every year since 2019 (26 y.o. year) as has his OPS and OPS+. There just doesn't look to be any upside. The options for parting company include a DFA and a trade. Looking at a trade, which might give some value for a player who once was valuable, one needs to look at who might be interested and what those interested would be willing to give in return. There are other teams that haven't had great production from their corner outfielders, including some that figure to contend. I would assume most of those teams are not looking for a veteran, but will try players from their own system and what they are willing to give for Kepler would be minimal unless the Twins take on Max's salary ($8.5M), I can't imagine any non-contender would be interested. A DFA would mean the approximately $5M owed Kepler (+ $1M buyout) would be lost. I doubt the Twins want to do that right now, particularly given the injury history of many players who would figure to replace Kepler. In my opinion, the thing to do as this time is to recall a replacement for Kepler and carry him as a backup outfielder. This plan isn't as simple as all that. Kepler won't be happy with a demotion and there currently isn't room on the active roster for him. Max is the second most senior player on the team and is a well-regarded professional. What to do with Max Kepler?

The Twins concluded the first month of the 2023 regular season with a 17-12 record. They stand 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the mediocre AL Central Division. What was projected to be a tough April schedule ended up being very manageable. The Twins played seven games against the New York Yankees, winning four, at an ideal time, with the Yankee pitching staff and lineup hamstrung by injuries. They also played the World Champion Astros, winning two of three, while the Astros were in an early season funk. How did the Twins manage to win 17 games? Pitching is the easy answer. The Twins allowed only 108 runs in 29 games, second best runs per game in the AL. Meanwhile, they scored 134 runs, seventh best, despite early struggles and cold weather. The offensive production was inconsistent until the just-completed home stand where the Twins scored six runs or more in six of the last seven games. That production was fueled by the long ball. The Twins have homered in eleven consecutive games and have already hit nine three-run homers--last year they hit seventeen in the entire season. The pitching started out fantastic. There has been some regression to the mean, but there is still a lot to like. The top three starters have been healthy and effective. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have taken the ball and most often completed six or more effective innings. Gray is 4-0 with a microscopic 0.77 ERA, Ryan is 5-0 with a fine 2.81 ERA and after two consecutive subpar starts Lopez is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Lopez has the most innings pitched and strikeouts and his first four starts were outstanding. The bottom half of the rotation has predictably been less effective and now seems dogged by injury. After two decent starts, Kenta Maeda has left his last two starts due to injury and was knocked around before leaving in his last start. Tyler Mahle pitched pretty well, but left his last start and now will be shut down for most of the month of May. The oft-noted rotation depth will be utilized with Bailey Ober already joining the rotation and most likely Louie Varland the next man up. The Twins bullpen has been a top heavy affair. Closer Jhoan Duran wows with his awesome stuff although he's had a few hiccups so far. Jorge Lopez hasn't allowed an earned run, but allowed some hits and an inherited runner in his last two outings, Griffin Jax has been mostly effective although batted ball luck makes his numbers look pretty pedestrian and Caleb Thielbar continues to thrive with one poor outing in an otherwise outstanding month of April. Long relief has done their job, providing lots of innings and pitches in the few one-sided affairs the Twins have played. The problem is the other guys. Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran were supposed to be reliable bridges to the aforementioned late-inning high-leverage guys and they haven't been effective. Alcala was sent to the minors and Moran looks like he won't be trusted, at least for the near future. Emilio Pagan also provokes anxiety, although he too only had one really bad outing. The Twins' defense is pretty sound so far this year. There isn't a lot of range outside of Taylor, but most everyone is reliable at turning outs into outs. Donovan Solano has played one game at second base and several at first, and he appears substandard. Joey Gallo has adjusted very well to first base. Miranda has been okay, but nothing special at third base. The outfield has played well defensively, with a few exceptions. Positive surprises for the month of April center on the pitching. Lopez, Ryan and Gray have been outstanding on the front end of the rotation--they were projected to be good and they have been better than that. The back end of the bullpen has been as good as advertised, including Jorge Lopez, who seems to have regained the form he had with the Orioles. The Twins have gotten good productivity and good defense from the catchers. Polanco and Buxton are hitting and figure to become the dynamic center of the lineup for a good team. For the position players, health seems to be returning, with Kyle Farmer on the mend and Alex Kirilloff ending his injury rehab. There are concerns that need to be addressed. The front end of the bullpen is unreliable at present and this is one area where the Twins lack depth. Someone needs to step up. Further, if the Twins continue to lean heavily on Jax, Thielbar, JLopez and Duran, they will risk burning out the effective back end guys. Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon and (marginally) Jose Miranda have not been effective hitters. Patience is probably needed for the hitters, with Nick Gordon probably on the bubble for demotion or DFA. The Twins are last in MLB in stolen bases, mostly due to lack of team speed, which also probably is reflected in a lack of range at several positions. In summary, the first month has gone very well. The Twins are now favorites to win the Central division according to betting lines and Fangraphs, but there are still five months of baseball left to secure a place in the playoffs. There are flaws on this team, particularly in bullpen depth. It should be exciting going forward and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system, or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2023, or who may make an impact within a few years. I was inspired by Nick Nelson’s posts regarding the major league team, but didn’t want to duplicate what he did, so I will only be writing about the guys not on the 40-man roster, because Nick has done a great job analyzing the position at the major league level. I will start with catchers, where there are more in the system than one probably thinks at the start. I used Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found on FanGraphs. Here is a note on each catcher in the Twins system not on the 40 man roster. I’ll list how they were acquired and what level I expect them to play at most this coming season. Tony Wolters Acquired: Free Agency, 2023 Level: AAA The Twins signed Wolters in January to have some depth within the minors if Christian Vazquez or Ryan Jeffers were to get injured. Wolters has bounced around to a few different teams in the past few years, but you likely remember him most as a member of the Colorado Rockies. He is a light hitting, backup, catcher at this point in his career, with a career .235/.321/.314 line in his time in the majors. He’s not a bad depth option because he has some major league experience, but the hope is he doesn’t have to get into too many games this season. Chance Sisco Acquired: Free Agency, 2022 Level: AAA Sisco was in the Twins system this past year as a well as a depth option and even with Ryan Jeffers injury, he was not called up to the ML squad. Once a highly regard prospect after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, Sisco never hit much in the majors, which leads to a noticeably clear ceiling. At this point, similar to Wolters, he is a depth option with some major league experience. His career line of .197/.317/337 is not fantastic, but it is nice to have a guy who can fill in a backup roll if needed. I’m not sure on where he compares to some of the other AAA catchers, but it’s never a bad thing to have multiple guys who have some major league experience if an injury does occur. Grayson Greiner Acquired: Free Agency, 2023 Level: AAA You may know Greiner most from his time with the Detroit Tigers, where he played from 2018-2021. He spent the 2022 season with Arizona, where he spent most of his time at AAA but made it into two major league games. Greiner, like Sisco and Wolters, is a depth option at the catcher position. He will likely play most, if not all, of the year at AAA where he will serve as a depth option in case of injury. His ML career slash of .201/.275/.307 is not far off from Wolters or Sisco and profiles as a depth piece where if you see him in the majors for too long, something went very wrong with injuries most likely. David Bañuelos Acquired: Trade, 2017 Level: AAA You may or may not remember, Bañuelos was acquired in December 2017 in a trade with the Seattle Mariners where the Twins sent international bonus pool money to Seattle in exchange for Bañuelos. Bañuelos has slowly climbed the minor league ranks since, finishing at AAA over the last two years. This may sound familiar, but he is a light hitting catcher who is a pretty solid depth piece this year. A career .207/.261/.325 hitter in 5 minor league seasons, Bañuelos has been tried at other positions, but not often, which says to me he is a catcher who can maybe play elsewhere in an emergency. Listed as the 4th possible catcher, at AAA, I would assume one of these guys may get a handful of at bats at 1B as well, but it may not be Bañuelos, since he hasn’t played there since 2017. At this point, he is a depth piece who will likely not see the majors unless something goes horribly wrong with the guys ahead of him on the depth chart. Alex Isola Acquire: Draft – 29th Round, 2019 Level: AA You may be thinking, finally, someone the Twins drafted. Don’t worry, there are a handful of others on this list as well. Isola was a late round pick, who has steadily climbed the minors ladder since being drafted in 2019. He made it up to Wichita, the Twins AA affiliate, this past season, where I would expect him to spend a chunk of the time this coming season as well. Isola is a career .264/.356/449 hitter in the minor leagues, which means his bat is a bit more of a weapon compared to others we have looked at to this point. Isola is relatively versatile as well, having played some 1B over the past two seasons as well. He also represented the Twins in the Arizona Fall League in 2022, where he mostly played 1B and he hit .228/.343/.316 in 16 games. Isola is 24 years old, so he likely projects as a career backup who can provide a little offense as well. I’m interested to see if he can carve a role in future years, but I don’t see 2023 being a year where that occurs, unless he takes a huge step forward combined with injuries occurring at the same time. Kyle Schmidt Acquired: Draft – 33rd Round, 2019 Level: AA Drafted out of the University of Richmond in 2019, where Schmidt tore the cover off the ball in his final season, he has slowly climbed the ranks, at an oddly similar pace to Isola. Schmidt’s minors career slash of .211/.296/.290 isn’t quite as potent, but he seems to still be developing potentially at the dish. Schmidt played at Fort Myers, Cedar Rapids, and also at Wichita, where he mostly played catcher, but also got into some games at 1B as well. If Schmidt can hit for more power, even becoming a guy who gets more extra base hits, he could potentially carve out a role as a backup catcher in the future. Pat Winkel Acquired: Draft – 9th round, 2021 Level: A+/AA Winkel has about a year and a half of minors games under his belt, so he still has a ways to go to get to the majors. He played at high-A Cedar Rapids this past year, where he hit decently well, and showed a little bit of power, hitting 6 HRs in 54 games played. As I mentioned, Winkel has a limited amount of minors experience, so plenty of time to still grow going forward, as he is only 23 years old. His career slash of .251/.341/.382 is something to build off, especially at the catcher position. Noah Cardenas Acquired: Draft – 8th round, 2021 Level: A+ In the past two season, in just over 100 games, Cardenas has hit .264/.420/.418, which is really fun because that shows he’s hit for a little bit of power, while also hitting for a decent average as well. I know, it’s the low minors, so you can take it with a grain of salt. Cardenas might be a potential piece long term, but will have to continue to perform if he wants to make an impact at the major league level going forward. He’s known for his glove first, and that’s an okay place to be as a catcher, but if he can tap into a little more offensive firepower, he could be a fun piece to watch climb his way into the picture in the next handful of years. Charles Mack Acquired: Draft – 6th round, 2018 Level: A+ Mack will be playing his age 23 season this coming year, but it will be his 5th year in the Twins system. Drafted in 2018, Mack has a career slash of .212/.315/346 in the minors. He played a little 1B this past season, so some versatility is always promising. He threw out 20% of potential base stealers, so he will need to improve in that area if wanting to be a long term option at catcher. Dillon Tatum Acquired: Draft – 20th Round, 2021 Level: A+ Tatum was drafted in the 20th round out of UC Irvine after hitting .278 with 15 HR in his final year there. In two minor league seasons, he has hit .172/.320/.291, so the bat has not translated as some may have hoped, but it still has time to develop as he is 22 years old. Tatum also played a handful of games at 1B this past year, but his bat will have to improve to truly be a viable option at 1B. He had a 25% caught stealing rate, so not great, but he did only commit 2 errors in 437 chances at Fort Myers as well. He’s a glove first catcher, with some upside with the bat. Keep your eye on how his bat develops this year. Nate Baez Acquired: Draft – 12th round, 2022 Level: A Baez is the one of the newer members of this list to the organization. He has played in a total of 19 minor league games but hit decently well at Fort Myers when called up. He hit 3 HR in 58 PA, so hopefully the power can still continue to develop. In his last season at Arizona State, he hit .319/.403/.562 with 10 HR and 48 RBI. If the bat can continue to develop, he could be a very interesting piece. Baez also played 1B, 2B, 3B and even a handful of games in LF as well in college, so there could be some versatility. I would say the versatility is something to keep an eye on, ad he is someone who could end up at 1B if catching doesn’t work out. Ricardo Olivar Acquired: Amateur FA – 2019 Level: A Olivar was signed as an amateur free agent in July 2019 for $20,000. He struggled in 2021, but figured something out in 2022 as he led the Florida Complex League with a 1.047 OPS over 40 games. Olivar has also played all 3 OF positions and 2B, which makes him a very intriguing prospect. Does he stick at catcher, or does he transition to another position that gets his bat into the lineup a bit more? Time will tell, but as a catcher, he has a decent fielding percentage, but has not thrown out would be base stealers very well at all. He finished the year at Fort Myers in 2022 so I would suspect he spends the entire 2023 season there as well. He is only 21 years old as well, so he could be a sneaky break-out candidate as someone not many people are talking about right now. Wilfri Castro Acquired: Amateur FA – 2017 Level: Rookie Castro was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and has been in rookie ball since 2018. His minors career line of .204/.338/.305 doesn’t scream a bright future, but sometimes you don’t know with low-level prospects. With having been in the system for a few years, this may be the year that he finally puts something together, as he has only 86 professional games under his belt at this point. For his sake, the hope would be he can at least finish the year in Fort Myers after hitting some at rookie ball. Ricardo Pena Acquired: Amateur FA – 2022 Level: Dominican Summer League Pena got into 29 games after being signed in April of last year. He hit a little bit, but 29 games is a small sample size to judge a 17, soon to be 18, year old. Lots of time for development for a young prospect, and one I will keep an eye on to see how he is doing over the next few years to see if he is able to develop into a possible top-30 prospect for the Twins. He will likely spend his time in the Dominican Summer League this coming year and hopefully build off of the development he had this past season. Carlos Silva Acquired: Amateur FA – 2023 Level: Dominican Summer League The Twins signed Silva, the number 31 ranked international prospect for $1.1 million in January of this year. Jesse Sanchez, of MLB.com stated about Silva: “As for Silva, the right-handed hitter from Venezuela has a compact frame that suits him well behind the plate. He also has the skills to keep him there as he advances through the Minor Leagues. Silva impressed scouts with his pop times and arm strength, which has a chance to be an above-average tool in the future. He shows good footwork along with solid receiving and blocking skills. At the plate, Silva shows plus bat speed and the ability to drive the ball to all fields, especially his pull side. He trains out of the NBS Academy in Venezuela.” This tells me that Silva is a guy to keep your eye on, but he likely won’t be major league ready for quite some time, as he is only 17 years old and will take quite some time to develop. He’s a prospect to be excited about, but not for probably 5-6 years realistically. Let me know which catchers not on the 40-man roster you are most excited for, or maybe which you aren’t as excited about. I plan on releasing one of these for each position over the next handful of weeks. Let me know your thoughts!

The reports are that Miguel Sanó is about ready to come off the injured list. Sanó was one of the major disappointments of April, logging a .111 batting average and .555 OPS. The Twins are otherwise as close to full strength as they have been since the first inning of the first game of the season. Among the position players, the club has switched out Ben Rortvedt for the struggling Ryan Jeffers and added Alex Kirilloff to essentially take Sanó's spot. Kirilloff is an outfielder/first baseman. He's logged most of his minor league innings in right field, then first base and lastly left field. The question on many Twins fans' minds is what the team will do next and the followup is what they should do next. Here are my thoughts in no particular order on the possible scenarios for the Twins next move: 1) Option Kirilloff back to the minor leagues. It has been an interesting ten days for the Twins former #1 draft choice. Alex Kirilloff is hitting .184 with only one walk and 11 strikeouts in 40 plate appearances. He's got two singles, a double and four homers and has a BABIP of .125. Kirilloff isn't going to homer once per 10 plate appearances, but he also isn't going to keep hitting the ball this hard and not find the grass for singles and doubles. Next to signing the other Alex (Columé) to an extension, I think the most unpopular move the Twins' front office could make would be to demote Kirilloff. 2) Option Jake Cave to St. Paul. With Kirilloff's emergence, Jake Cave won't be getting much playing time. Cave is a capable outfielder, who has been the manager's choice to fill in for Buxton in center field whenever Buck has been unable to play. Cave runs pretty well and in his career has hit right handed pitching quite well. The numbers this year and last have been poor, however. Max Kepler has played a lot of center field and could cover for Buxton for a short absence. I think this is the popular choice with the Twins' fan base. 3) Option Kyle Garlick to St. Paul. Garlick had a strong spring training and won a spot on the Opening Day roster as a backup corner outfielder who would get his chances versus left handed pitching. The early results were promising, but Garlick first slowed and then was placed on the COVID list. He's had only one start since being reinstated and was hitless. Garlick's strength is hitting, particularly against lefties. From a roster makeup point of view, it makes sense to have somebody who might pound LH pitching as a backup outfielder, since Kirilloff, Kepler, Cave and Arraez all hit left handed and it would appear that all are vulnerable to same side pitchers. 4) Option Willians Astudillo to St. Paul. The short, stout pony-tailed Turtle is popular and totally exasperating. We know La Tortuga will grab a glove and play anywhere. For a guy with that body, he does okay wherever he is put in the field and he is insurance so that the team can hit or run for their catchers. Astudillo will get some hits, no walks and lots of first-pitch popups, but he doesn't strike out either. Again, given this roster's construction, it probably makes sense to have a versatile right handed hitter as a bench player. 5) Demote a pitcher (or place him on IL). That would mean going with 11 pitchers--what a concept. Oldtimers like me can remember going with nine-man pitching staffs and four-man rotations. That's not going to happen, but going one pitcher short for a few days could work. I doubt this front office would take that "risk" and they probably are correct. 6) Send Sanó on a rehab assignment. Sanó has been out less than two weeks, but always seems to take a while to find his swing. It would be a de facto demotion for the Twins' slugger, but it would buy time for the team to figure out how to proceed. 7) Find an injury. Someone who has been underperforming or who might otherwise be demoted might have a sore pinky or nerve irritation in their non-throwing arm. All the clubs do it to some degree and if the Twins don't want to burn an option on a player, they well may find an injury.

I recently moved to the Anaheim area and was lucky enough to be able to attend Tuesday evenings' game (5/21/19). I also was able to get to a Dodgers' game a few weeks ago against the Nationals. I've been watching the Twins all season on TV (the 5pm start and 8pm finish of the weekday games is glorious), and I am always confident that we are going to end up having a shot to win any game as long as we keep it within 2 or 3 runs because our lineup is beautiful (so deep). The Twins won handedly last night as you all know, but throughout the game something about the team just does not give me that championship edge feel. Especially when I was just able to see a squad like the Dodgers mash the ball around and seemingly always be in control of the game. (I am 'young' and have never seen a Minnesota championship, so I may just be thinking it is never going to occur for any of the teams that I love.) There are so many things to love about the team especially on the offensive side, it feels like runs can be scored at absolutely any part of the lineup with so many great on base percentages and guys mashing balls all over the gaps and out of the park. Maybe this bullpen just doesn't do it for me. Maybe they will clean it up. What do the Twins need to give them that edge? Do you think they already have all of the pieces for a championship run? If we are missing something, what and how do we acquire? GO TWINS GO