Something New or Déjà Vu? Another Hot Start for the Twins' Rotation

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins rotation has been mighty impressive through the first few weeks of the season. But we said something similar last year. Here’s why this year’s hot start is different, and what fans should expect going forward.

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Going into the 2023 campaign, there was optimism that the Twins’ starting rotation would take a major step forward. Top to bottom, the group represented a breath of fresh air despite some health questions on the back end. The addition of Pablo Lopez at the top, along with the returns of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, had fans feeling optimistic that the club would find some consistency. There was also the added upside that Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda would return from their injuries of yesteryear and perform much closer to what the team expected when they acquired them.

So far in this young season, that plan is coming together about as good as the club could have hoped. We’ve now seen a few trips through the rotation, and the starting staff has propelled the club to a competitive, hot start to the season. If that storyline sounds familiar to you, it’s for good reason. Just last year, the rotation was a major bright spot in April before coming apart at the seams as the season wore on.

Does that mean fans should temper their excitement for this year’s class of starting pitchers? Or is there bound to be substantial regression to the mean? The answer is probably somewhere in between, but it’s interesting to look at the numbers from the first two times through the rotation in each year. 

There are a few key differences between the 2022 rotation and this year’s staff, namely the contrast in expectations surrounding the members of each group. For example, it’s not hard to expect better production from Lopez compared to Chris Archer. A healthy Mahle will surely outperform Dylan Bundy. Even this year’s version of Ryan has bigger expectations than he had a year ago.

 

Expectations aside, the 2022 rotation looked strong through their first 10 games, igniting a spark of excitement for fans that have been begging for stronger pitching ever since baseball bloggers were buying Beanie Babies. In that short span, last year’s rotation had the second-best ERA in the league (2.96 ERA), the third-best walk rate (5.9%) and the fifth-highest rank when it came to runners left on base (75%).

This year’s five starters also excelled in these areas through their first 10 games. They once again had the second-best ERA (2.62 ERA) and only trailed the Tampa Bay Rays, who are undefeated through their first 13 games. This year’s Twins rotation also ranked third-best in walk rate in their first two trips through the staff (6.2%) and they led the league in runners stranded on base (82.3%). Much of this improvement had to do with a massive increase in strikeouts. This increase has come from a better selection of put-away pitches, meaning a pitch selection once the count gets to two strikes. When the count gets to that point, the Twins have by far the best strikeout rate in all of baseball at 58% (league average is 42%). Maybe it's better execution, or the fact that each member of this year's staff seemingly came into the season with new pitches in their repertoire, but the fact remains that they have been far more lethal in put-away situations. 

Even in their hot start, last year’s rotation never showed that high-punch out power that the current group has displayed. In 2022, they started the season with a 20% strikeout percentage in the first 10 games (8th in the league), and stayed around that mark through the end of the year. This year’s club came out of the gate ready to rumble, mowing down opponents with a dazzling 31.4% strikeout rate in their first 10 games. That mark led the league.

In hindsight, last year’s rotation success in the first 10 games ended up being a mirage. By the end of the season, their ERA dropped to ninth in the American League (4.11 ERA), their walk rate ballooned to tenth (6.9%) and they stopped leaving as many runners stranded (72 %, seventh in the league). The only rate that stayed relatively consistent was the mediocre strikeout totals, where they finished tenth in the league at 20.2%. 

Obviously there are a few different paths that this rotation can go down as the season progresses. If their strikeout numbers regress to the mean, it’s reasonable to expect the strand rate to start to balloon, and the staff ERA would likely follow suit. But if this group stays healthy and effective, especially when it comes to their high-punch out tendencies, they could remain at or close to the top of the leaderboard when it comes to these figures. And that would be a major breath of fresh air.

What do you think? Is this year’s rotation bound for considerable regression? Or have they finally found a staff that can lead a contending team? 

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[SockNet]

This years rotation feels vastly different. Adding an actual #1 and staying away from the Archers and Bundys of the world helps with that. It's the first year in recent memory the rotation isn't at lease 2/5 reclamation projects with a "who else do we have" sprinkled in as the three starter.

[Juza]

The numbers between this year's rotation and last year's are similar. The biggest difference (other than the strike outs) is the number of innings pitched by the rotation. Twins starters have thrown 78 innings so far, which is exactly 6 innings per start. Last year that was 61 innings. That's a big difference. This rotation is capable for consistently getting 6 innings per start and giving Rocco the ability to set up the bullpen to be used the way he wants to. Go look at the bullpen usage chart after GM1 vs the Yanks. Too often last year Rocco had too many pitchers unavailable because they had thrown too many pitches the day before.

[jmlease1]

After 2 starts last season, Sonny Gray landed on the IL. Ryan wasn't bad, but was struggling to get deeper into the games because of his pitch counts. Archer only pitched into the 5th one time in the first two months. Bundy did well the first 3 outings, but it was unsustainable. Ober only stayed healthy for 3 weeks.

No question that the rotation is deeper, stronger, and more reliable this season.

[Rosterman]

The rotation isn't even hitting the 100-pitch mark to any degree yet. Throwing strikes is the key. And having a first-rate defense in the field will be a big plus. 

The pitch clock can be a big help. Ryan was wonderful when he can control his rhythm on the mound. Keep him with Vasquez all season, please. 

And that may be the hidden gem, a first-rate receiver behind the plate that can also help the still developing Jeffers.

Be interesting to see Varland pitch in Yankee Stadium. WIll he push Madea to the pen, perhaps? Ober is in the wings. I like that Rocco is trying to see who can give him two innings in relief. 

This first month is the key. Yankees get out-of-the-way. You were able to play Houston. Get a bit of the inter-division White Sox, and finally faceopff against Cleveland.

[silverslugger]

Nice article, concise, to the point, and backed up with stats.  This is what keeps us coming back to this site for more, thank you!

[chpettit19]

The most likely regression will come in the K%. That's going to drop some. But if they can keep it in the 25% range they'll be just fine and setup for a wonderful season. And I think that's a pretty realistic mark for them this year. Fun to finally have 5 guys who you feel can give you a shot to win any given day. And to have them backed up by 3 other guys who have the chance to keep you in most games as well. 

[Trov]

This rotation, despite having 2 returning guys, is different from last year.  Maybe everyone having a new pitch it seems will have a bit of an early affect, and after league adjusts to new pitches they regress.  However, one HUGE difference is who is catching.  Velaquez has shown he really knows how to call a game and get the max out of the pitcher.  Outside of a few bad innings, most starters are working fast getting quick innings, allowing them to pitch into the 6th and sometimes 7th.  From the games I have watched, they just look different.  Joe Ryan big knock last year was he could not get it done against top offenses, but last 2 games, outside the grand slam inning, he has shut down two good hitting teams. 

Lopez has just been great, and Gray has been effective, just not dominate.  Mahle and Maeda have been effective enough as 4 and 5 guys, but the front end of the rotation is keeping the pen fresh for most part. Could it all go pear shape in a hurry, yes if injuries set in or league adjusts to new pitches and players fail to counter, but for now they look good on the mound. 

[Doctor Gast]

I believe a better comparison is Lopez to Bundy, Mahle to Ober and Maeda to Archer. But the biggest difference between this season to last is the BP. Last season we had Pagan & Duffy as closers, Smith who quickly petered out & the rest unproven rookies. The BP imploded which broke the rotation. Plus you have to take into consideration our SPs had little to practically no ST to ramp up, our game calling was terrible last season. Our rotation & BP make up last season  was totally adverse to the way Baldelli likes to manage than the one we have now.

The addition of Lopez & Vazquez, normal ST ramping up, strong BP, Ober taken slower, supervision of Paparesta (probably the result of Maeda sitting out), I don't see the BP imploding or the injuries & ineffectiveness of our rotation we had last season. If good care is done, I don't see much recession.

[HerbieFan]

What feels different to me is the quality at the top...namely Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan.  Ryan is a different pitcher...shut down the Yankees, two bat at bats against Houston but otherwise shut them down.

Hopefully the lineup can get healthy and make up for some of the "bad days" the rotation has down the road.

[mikelink45]

I love the optimism.  I just want to wait until summer.   I remember where we were at the all-star game last year.  Baseball is cruel and the best way to enjoy it is to follow the flow without jumping to early conclusions.

I agree this is a much better pitching staff, but injuries happen and we just have to keep our role well defined.  We are here to watch, listen and enjoy.  Everything else is out of our control. 

[jkcarew]

10 hours ago, Juza said:

The biggest difference (other than the strike outs) is the number of innings pitched by the rotation. Twins starters have thrown 78 innings so far, which is exactly 6 innings per start. Last year that was 61 innings. That's a big difference.

Huge. Not even in the same universe.

[DocBauer]

Apples to oranges. Paddack was a bit of a risk that didn't turn out, but he sure looked good early. But Gray wasn't his normal self. Ryan was a rookie. Maeda was in recovery mode. A seemingly healthy Mahle wasn't even with the Twins until the second half. And Lopez was in Miami. And Ober was great when healthy, but missed the entire middle third of the season.

Yeah, early 2022 returns were based a lot on luck and smoke and mirrors. And they didn't have Varland and SWR...and Ober as of now...for depth. This is almost an entirely different rotation. The great K numbers will probably drop some. And the ERA's may climb a little. But the rotation and the entire staff is very different, more talented and deeper, than 2022. 

[jmlease1]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our rotation & BP make up last season  was totally adverse to the way Baldelli likes to manage than the one we have now.

I think our rotation last season was totally adverse to the way anyone wants to manage, LOL.

[Karbo]

18 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The rotation isn't even hitting the 100-pitch mark to any degree yet. Throwing strikes is the key. And having a first-rate defense in the field will be a big plus. 

The pitch clock can be a big help. Ryan was wonderful when he can control his rhythm on the mound. Keep him with Vasquez all season, please. 

And that may be the hidden gem, a first-rate receiver behind the plate that can also help the still developing Jeffers.

Be interesting to see Varland pitch in Yankee Stadium. WIll he push Madea to the pen, perhaps? Ober is in the wings. I like that Rocco is trying to see who can give him two innings in relief. 

This first month is the key. Yankees get out-of-the-way. You were able to play Houston. Get a bit of the inter-division White Sox, and finally faceopff against Cleveland.

I agree that some credit should go to the catchers. 

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think our rotation last season was totally adverse to the way anyone wants to manage, LOL.

The early results showed they could get it done but didn't have the arms & BP to sustain it. Atlanta won the World Series on BP games, it's just a matter of knowing how use long relief. It's great to have 5 SPs that can regularly go 7 innings, but for many reasons that's not possible. A great manager is one that is able to go outside his ideal mindset (that he wants) and is able to adjust to the cards he's dealt and enjoys the challenge.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The pitch clock can be a big help. Ryan was wonderful when he can control his rhythm on the mound. Keep him with Vasquez all season, please. 

And that may be the hidden gem, a first-rate receiver behind the plate that can also help the still developing Jeffers.

 

I agree on the catching part of the equation. That "little" extra added quality provided by the catcher can end up being a huge factor in the success of the pitcher. 

[ashbury]

On 4/14/2023 at 7:38 AM, Rosterman said:

And that may be the hidden gem, a first-rate receiver behind the plate that can also help the still developing Jeffers.

A $30M contract isn't a king's ransom in this day and age, but it kind of moves Vazquez out of hidden gem territory.

[JD-TWINS]

Got to see Mahle pitch, the way he does, on Saturday v. Yanks before responding here. He’s not going to regress, he’ll just stay the same guy, with an ERA around 4.25. He looks like a pitcher but he doesn’t have the mental make-up. I live in Cinti and watched him for 3 years plus. 

He wastes way too much energy and throws way too many pitches trying to get strikeouts. Pitch count elevates too early routinely. He gets behind after being ahead (never thrown a 1-2 strike) and walks guys and/or grooves a pitch and gives up too many HR’s.

When he came to Minn. & since, the experts said he gave up too many HR’s because he pitched in Great American in Cinti & how things would change. First outing at Target Field he gave up 3 HR’s.

Today he made an error on what should have been the 3rd out on a tapper to side of mound. That happens. No mental toughness or focus!! He misplayed tapper and then gave up a 2 run homer to the back-up catcher who was 2-16 for season going into the at bat v. Mahle. 

He’s a decent athlete and has OK stuff - he doesn’t know how to execute and be aggressive on the mound. He’s our weak link on staff. He’ll look good every 3rd start - that’s it………gotta score a lot of runs for him to be better then .500.

Sonny Gray & Maeda will battle & have means to get guys to miss their pitches……Ryan looks good and his confidence is up……..Lopez won’t remain perfect but he’s going to be steady!

Overall, can’t have a perfect staff - we have some options as we get later in the season if somebody goes down.

Varland is another guy that will battle - good outing at Yankee stadium this week!