Twins Video
Going into the 2023 campaign, there was optimism that the Twins’ starting rotation would take a major step forward. Top to bottom, the group represented a breath of fresh air despite some health questions on the back end. The addition of Pablo Lopez at the top, along with the returns of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, had fans feeling optimistic that the club would find some consistency. There was also the added upside that Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda would return from their injuries of yesteryear and perform much closer to what the team expected when they acquired them.
So far in this young season, that plan is coming together about as good as the club could have hoped. We’ve now seen a few trips through the rotation, and the starting staff has propelled the club to a competitive, hot start to the season. If that storyline sounds familiar to you, it’s for good reason. Just last year, the rotation was a major bright spot in April before coming apart at the seams as the season wore on.
Does that mean fans should temper their excitement for this year’s class of starting pitchers? Or is there bound to be substantial regression to the mean? The answer is probably somewhere in between, but it’s interesting to look at the numbers from the first two times through the rotation in each year.
This year’s five starters also excelled in these areas through their first 10 games. They once again had the second-best ERA (2.62 ERA) and only trailed the Tampa Bay Rays, who are undefeated through their first 13 games. This year’s Twins rotation also ranked third-best in walk rate in their first two trips through the staff (6.2%) and they led the league in runners stranded on base (82.3%). Much of this improvement had to do with a massive increase in strikeouts. This increase has come from a better selection of put-away pitches, meaning a pitch selection once the count gets to two strikes. When the count gets to that point, the Twins have by far the best strikeout rate in all of baseball at 58% (league average is 42%). Maybe it's better execution, or the fact that each member of this year's staff seemingly came into the season with new pitches in their repertoire, but the fact remains that they have been far more lethal in put-away situations.
Even in their hot start, last year’s rotation never showed that high-punch out power that the current group has displayed. In 2022, they started the season with a 20% strikeout percentage in the first 10 games (8th in the league), and stayed around that mark through the end of the year. This year’s club came out of the gate ready to rumble, mowing down opponents with a dazzling 31.4% strikeout rate in their first 10 games. That mark led the league.
In hindsight, last year’s rotation success in the first 10 games ended up being a mirage. By the end of the season, their ERA dropped to ninth in the American League (4.11 ERA), their walk rate ballooned to tenth (6.9%) and they stopped leaving as many runners stranded (72 %, seventh in the league). The only rate that stayed relatively consistent was the mediocre strikeout totals, where they finished tenth in the league at 20.2%.
Obviously there are a few different paths that this rotation can go down as the season progresses. If their strikeout numbers regress to the mean, it’s reasonable to expect the strand rate to start to balloon, and the staff ERA would likely follow suit. But if this group stays healthy and effective, especially when it comes to their high-punch out tendencies, they could remain at or close to the top of the leaderboard when it comes to these figures. And that would be a major breath of fresh air.
What do you think? Is this year’s rotation bound for considerable regression? Or have they finally found a staff that can lead a contending team?
Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis
- nclahammer, Dman, MN_ExPat and 2 others
-
5
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now