Astros 5, Twins 1: Twins Come Short on Sweep of Defending World Champs

[Theodore Tollefson]

The Twins concluded their first series at Target Field on the year looking to sweep an unbeatable opponent during the 2022 season; the Houston Astros. Tyler Mahle was on the mound facing his first big challenge of 2023. Could he outmatch the next coming of Justin Verlander in Hunter Brown on the mound? Or would the Astros bats beyond Yordan Alvarez awaken from a deep slumber?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
SP: Tyler Mahle 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (90 pitches, 61 strikes (68% strikes))
Home Runs: none
Top 3 WPA:  Donovan Solano .075, Kyle Farmer .024, Byron Buxton .021
Bottom 3 WPA: Tyler Mahle -.214, Jose Miranda -.102, Nick Gordon -.076
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

Unfortunately, most of the answers to those questions were not encouraging. Mahle had a good news/bad news outing, the Twins struggled against high-velocity rookie pitcher Hunter Brown, and they lost the last game of the series 5-1.

Mahle’s Other Big Problem
The good news is that Mahle’s velocity numbers remain high, demonstrating that the shoulder fatigue that ended his 2022 season, is being held at bay. The bad news is that was only half his problem in 2022.

While the rest of Twins Territory worried about the health of Mahle’s shoulder last year, he was worried about something else. “The big problem I had last year was not to lefties but to righties,” Mahle confided during spring training. “I didn't have a slider breaking ball. So I was, you know, it was pretty tough to get righties out. But I think what I have now, I think it's gonna be a big difference.”

His stats last year tell a similar story. Mahle, a right-handed pitcher, had “reverse splits.” Usually, pitchers struggle against opposite-handed hitters, but Mahle was great versus left-handees, holding them to a .192 batting average and a 602 OPS. But right-handers hit .268 against him with a 783 OPS. It was a similar story in 2021.

The cliché is that starting pitchers need three pitches, but a more true statement is that they need two pitches that work versus both right-handed and left-handed hitters. A fastball works against both sides, but off-speed pitches are generally more effective vs one side or the other. So a pitcher wants to have two off-speed pitches: one that works vs the same-handed batter, and one versus the opposite-handed batter.

A slider generally works against a same-handed batter. So Mahle went to DriveLine, a performance training center, to work on it early in the offseason. Things clicked fast. There was a slight change to the grip, but the big change was a mindset change: quit trying to throw it so hard. “I'm not like trying to throw a 90 mile an hour slider, you know, because what I'm good at is getting behind the ball. So if I think I'm gonna try to throw something hard, I'm gonna get behind it, which isn't good for a slider,” said Mahle.

So while we’re all interested in Mahle’s velocity readings to gauge the strength of his shoulder, it may be nearly as important to see how he’s doing versus right-handers, and particularly when throwing that slider. 

This makes the Astros a tough matchup for Mahle. They only have three left-handed hitters on their roster, and usually only two are in the lineup. Except for Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez – two excellent hitter in their own right – Mahle had to face all right-handed bats.

Sure enough, the damage that was done in third inning was done by two right-handed hitters. #9 hitter Mauricio Dubon singled on a ground ball through the middle. Then Chas McCormick belted a home run into the right field bleachers. 

And yes, both hits came on sliders.  

The story was similar in the fifth inning, when the Twins gave up two more runs. All three hits that led to runs were hit by right-handed hitters – a leadoff single by Jeremy Pena, a double down the first base line by Dubon and a two run-scoring single by McCormick again. 

The slider, it looks like, remains a work in progress. Mahle threw it 34 times, got 16 strikes on it (five swinging), three outs, but gave up four hits. "Yeah, today it was good. I thought it was better than my last start," Mahle said after the game. "It's just more consistent and the action I wanted."

His development of that pitch, and the results he gets versus right-handed hitters, will likely drive his success this season at least as much as his radar gun numbers. 

How Would You Score It?
There was a scoring change on the run that Byron Buxton scored in the fourth inning, and that led to some debate in the press box. Buxton hit a ground ball that would likely have been an infield single, but the throw also got past the first baseman, so Buxton took second base. The next two batter struck out. Then Donovan Solano hit a double into the right-field corner that scored Buxton.

Originally, his run was counted as an “earned” run. A run is earned if the scorekeeper decide that the run would’ve scored regardless of any errors made during the inning. Essentially, the scorer was saying that had there not been a throwing error and Buxton would have had to stay on first base, he still would’ve scored on that double. 

In the fifth inning, that was changed to an unearned run, saying the opposite was true: that Buxton would’ve been held up at third base (or been out had he not). Here’s the play. Judge for yourself. Let’s hear what you think in the comments.

Low Leverage Leakage
If you’re looking for something from the series to worry about (and what Minnesota sports fan isn’t?), one group that struggled in the series was the backend of the bullpen. That’s to be expected of course - the Astros have a great lineup, and Jovani Moran, Jorge Alcala, and Emilio Pagan are in the back-end of the bullpen for a reason: because they are not yet accomplished enough to be among the Twins top relievers.

But it’s doubtful this series did much to build their (or Rocco Baldelli’s) confidence. Saturday, Moran was handed a five-run lead in the ninth inning and turned it into a save opportunity for Jhoan Duran. Sunday, Alcala cruised through a seventh inning, but started the eighth with two walks that eventually turned into a run (albeit unearned). Finally, Pagan was the pitcher on the mound when that run came across the plate.

Pagan got the Twins out of the jam and had a more tempered ninth inning after giving up a lead off double in the inning. 

This is part of the learning process, and it’s how low-leverage become high-leverage relievers. But right now, it doesn’t look like any of the three are ready to leapfrog into a more critical role. 

What’s Next? 
Twins begin their second series of the homestand against the Chicago White Sox on Monday afternoon. Kenta Maeda is set to make his second start of the season against last year’s runner-up for the AL Cy Young, Dylan Cease. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. 

Postgame Interview 

Coming soon.

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

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[h2oface]

There goes the all important run differential.

I don't know what folks expect from Mahle. Well, I know what the FO sold us and some are trying to. But Mahle's career ERA is 4.35, and the season is now at 4.09. WHIP 1.32 to 1.36 in the only first two starts. That is what he is. That is what he probably will be. Better score lots of runs when he pitches.

And the Pagan spin? Stuff stuff and more stuff? One the worst relievers running for the last 3 years. How about that stuff.

2 of 3 from Houston is still a win. And 6-3 is a welcome start as a team. Let's see what the White Sox have got.

Great info on Mahle's trials. Love it. And if you know how Buxton runs, he would have scored from first on the double. But with Watkins coaching third, he might have held Buxton to prevent him from sliding ......... 🙁

 

[ashbury]

"[N]ot yet accomplished enough to be among the Twins top relievers."  Emilio Pagan turns 32 in under a month.  Give him a few more years before we give up on him.

[stringer bell]

The score was 5-1. What is the "backend" of the bullpen? To me, the backend is the highest leverage guys. Yes, like most every team, the low leverage guys are not sure things to do their jobs. Alcala struggled with control, but shows good velocity and he has had success with his breaking pitches. I'm not terribly disappointed in his performance, Pagan is going to be a lightning rod for criticism as long as he is with the Twins. Moran needs to avoid walks and work ahead in counts to make that changeup a put away pitch. 

Mahle was certainly not great, but gave up a bunch of soft contact hits, two to Abreu, an infield roller by Dubon and the broken bat two-run single to McCormick. The homer went 354 feet, not exactly a moonshot. That's four straight starts of six innings or more for the starters. Getting the lineup healthier and more productive has to be priority number one.

 

[jkcarew]

Even today, pitching wasn’t the problem. By the end of the days schedule, there will have been 40-50% of the league that scored 5 or more runs today.

Playing Buxton at DH (instead of center) presents a big offensive handicap. Easy to ignore if the rest of the lineup was productive…or if you assume it WILL BE productive. Impossible to ignore when it’s not…or you don’t think it will be.

[blindeke]

You make a great point. Pagan might not be as rock solid as I thought he was... 

[Linus]

Sloppy game by the Twins. Reminded me of last year. People kind of assume Alcala is going to be a good reliever but he really has been good for about two months. He’s another Falvey special: guys that have stuff but no control or command and then we are shocked when they groove one middle middle and it gets crushed. See Moran Megill Pagan Sands etc. 

[Althebum82]

Hmmm.  With two outs in the fourth inning of a then two to nothing Astros lead an assumption was made by the scorer that Buxton would have scored from first base on Solano's double?  It is early enough in a still close game, and with two outs it is reasonable to conclude there would have been at least an attempt by Buxton to score.  That's where the logic falls apart for me.  I can't take the next step and assume the attempt would be successful unless the outfielder and relay infielder are known to have really terrible throwing arms.  

If that happens to be the case, then I agree with the earned run.  But I instinctively believe the scorer got it right the first time.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Bring on the Pale Hose.

[Melissa]

13 hours ago, stringer bell said:

 

Yeah, Mahle was bit by some of those lucky Astro hits.

For example, in the third, Dubon reaches on an “infield single” after two outs, and then McCormick lofts one of those short home runs into the right field planter overhang.

Do I remember correctly that Alvarez’s slam against Ryan on Saturday also was a right field flower pot overhang special?

10 hours ago, Linus said:

Sloppy game by the Twins. Reminded me of last year.

Not sure what plays this comment is referring to. A few instances where a truly exceptional or terrific or lucky play might have made a difference, but “sloppy” seems harsh.

[William K Johnson]

Sorry, but I do not see the fascination with Matt Wallner.   

[jmlease1]

Mahle's overall line doesn't look all that great, but watching the game he wasn't giving up a lot of hard contact: multiple bleeders bouncing through the infield, a soft liner just out of Farmer's reach, a blooper just into short right...I wouldn't say he pitched great, but he wasn't bad either. Some tough beats.

The offense really struggled. 2 hits  is just not enough. Brown was really good though and had them completely off balance.

I'll still take a series win against Houston every time, though. I recall a bunch of negative nellies predicting total disaster in this series and we took 2 of 3. Time to get back to work against Chicago.

[stringer bell]

31 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Sorry, but I do not see the fascination with Matt Wallner.   

He’s got plus power, good speed, great throwing arm. Hmmm, sounds a lot like Joey Gallo. No, I don’t think he’ll be a regular on a major league team. Not enough contact at the plate and currently a lot of rough edges in the field. 
 

He was born the same year as Kirilloff and Larnach and to me he is clearly less skilled than both of them, although he’s been healthy and the other two have had their last two seasons curtailed by injury.