Sign Byron Buxton! (Buxton rejects initial extension offer)

[tony&rodney]

We are not privy to exact details but these negotiations are not looking positive. Unless the Twins can get a really good player for Byron, the Twins should let him heal and see what Buxton can do next season to raise his value or contribute to a good season.

[Danchat]

3 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Who and were is the 7 years stated?  Is this just a guess at the length?

Ken Rosenthal's article:

Quote

The Twins’ initial offer to Buxton was for $73 million over seven years, and included a unique incentive package that would have increased its potential value, sources said. Buxton’s side countered, and the Twins responded by increasing the guarantee to $80 million. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, Danchat said:

The Twins’ initial offer to Buxton was for $73 million over seven years, and included a unique incentive package that would have increased its potential value, sources said. Buxton’s side countered, and the Twins responded by increasing the guarantee to $80 million. 

Hmm. $80m guaranteed for seven years is pretty unimpressive. If I was Buxton, I wouldn’t even consider anything lower than a $15m base salary with big escalators. 

[RedBull34]

Man this is a tough one.  I can't imagine any team is going to go 7 years for Buck, but a 10 MM or 12 MM guarantee shouldn't be hard to beat on a shorter term.  IDK, the escalators are really important.

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hmm. $80m guaranteed for seven years is pretty unimpressive. If I was Buxton, I wouldn’t even consider anything lower than a $15m base salary with big escalators. 

That's a pretty attainable base in FA. I imagine that's relatively close to Buxton's floor in these negotiations. I'm most interested in what his counter to 7/73 was. I think that'll give us a much better indication of where this is going.

[AlwaysinModeration]

We don’t know what the incentives are, but my question is, why such a long contract offer?  How about 4/60 plus some incentives? This gives the Twins a chance to get his services for a few more years, and from his side, if he puts together a string of healthy, MVP-level years, he could set himself up to really cash in on his last major contract.

[Irishman]

Looks like Buxton does not want to play for TwIns!

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That's a pretty attainable base in FA. I imagine that's relatively close to Buxton's floor in these negotiations. I'm most interested in what his counter to 7/73 was. I think that'll give us a much better indication of where this is going.

Same. I’m really interested in Buxton’s counter offers. 

[bean5302]

31 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

We don’t know what the incentives are, but my question is, why such a long contract offer?  How about 4/60 plus some incentives? This gives the Twins a chance to get his services for a few more years, and from his side, if he puts together a string of healthy, MVP-level years, he could set himself up to really cash in on his last major contract.

Yeah, incentives are a question here, though they aren't typically big escalators. For Buxton, a 4 year contract or 4 year extension would make him a free agent at age 31 or 32 vs. a free agent at 29 currently. That's probably not desireable for Buxton.

He has to expect he'll receive a QO next year worth probably $20MM or so and maybe $10MM for 2022. So Buxton can probably bank on 2yrs, $30MM along with being a free agent at age 29 with no qualifying offer baggage. If he puts together a couple straight full seasons where his bat is solidly above average, 5yrs $150MM is probably obtainable. That would give him $170MM over 7 years vs. the Twins' offer of less than half that.

Let's pretend the above scenario plays out, but Buxton remains fairly frequently hurt, but he performs well while on the field. He only needs contracts which add up to 5 years and $50MM to beat the Twins' final offer because he'll get the $30MM over the next 2 at a higher AAV than the Twins are offering. He'll always find a suitor for a 1-2 year contract if he's playing well, regardless of injury history and I can't see the cumulative 1-2 year contracts adding up to less than 5 years $40MM.

Assuming all that... Buxton would make anywhere from $70MM-$170MM over the next 7 years provided he doesn't have a career ending injury or experience major decline. The Twins are offering him $80MM plus (probably marginal) incentives. That's way towards the bottom of the range.

 

[Twinsrtheworst]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Ken Rosenthal's article:

 

Thanks for sharing. I missed that part.

[prouster]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Numbers say what people want them to say. You want them to say Byron Buxton is the best player in baseball based on 3 partial seasons.

One thing these numbers absolutely don’t say is that Buxton and Hicks are equal caliber players. 

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, prouster said:

One thing these numbers absolutely don’t say is that Buxton and Hicks are equal caliber players. 

Did this comparison in a different thread. Buxton has better defense. Hicks likely has a better bat. Bottom line, they were pretty similar.

[prouster]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Did this comparison in a different thread. Buxton has better defense. Hicks likely has a better bat. Bottom line, they were pretty similar.

Lol, I strongly disagree. 

[bean5302]

39 minutes ago, prouster said:

Lol, I strongly disagree. 

When the Yankees signed Hicks, he was coming off a 7.2 bWAR and 5.2 bWAR per 162 seasons. Buxton was at 5.6 bWAR and 8.7 bWAR in 2019-2020.

Hicks also posted wRC+ numbers of better than 120 in 3 of his past 4 seasons. This season is a major outlier, but he was playing with a strained UCL.

Defense isn't worth as much as you might think. The difference between Buxton and Hicks in CF is 1.0 to 1.5 WAR over a full season because a large part of their defensive value comes from positional value. Between the two, based on the history, I find nothing to convince me Buxton's bat is better, and even arguing Buxton and Hicks are equal at the plate is awfully dubious. Hicks' wRC+ 120 performance at the plate has a 1500 plate appearance track record now. Buxton had never achieved that level of performance in his career until this luck fueled 110 plate appearance explosion.

My opinion is you're seriously overvaluing Buxton and seriously undervaluing Hicks (when they're on the field, that is)

[lake_guy]

My guess is the guaranteed money was too low and regardless how much it makes sense for a player like Buxton to have an incentive laden contract, there has to be some considerable pressure from the agents and the union not to go too far down that path for someone as talented as he is.  

[KirbyHawk75]

In a perfect world the Twins would sign both Berrios and Buxton.  I don't think that is happening.   I think it is time to trade them along with Rodgers and get some valuable young players and prospects.  They can join players like AK, TL, RL, and the young pitchers to give the Twins a nice young core.  Maybe that generation can win a playoff game or series.  I love them but the Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Rodgers, and Duffey group have proven they cannot win in the playoffs even with a vet like Cruz.  

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That's a pretty attainable base in FA. I imagine that's relatively close to Buxton's floor in these negotiations. I'm most interested in what his counter to 7/73 was. I think that'll give us a much better indication of where this is going.

A lot of that depends on how easy the escalators are to attain and how much they pay out too.  Sure, the base isn't amazing, but I also think people WAY overestimate how much money is available to him as a free agent.

Teams have a several season behavior trend of being much more risk averse.  Especially on the term component.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Irishman said:

Looks like Buxton does not want to play for TwIns!

Or that he wants market value money and the Twins aren't there yet

[Roaddog]

29 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Or that he wants market value money and the Twins aren't there yet

More likely this. I don't think Buxton's camp would bother with a counter offer if he didn't want to be here.

[RonCoomersOPS]

3 hours ago, prouster said:

Lol, I strongly disagree. 

There's no question that Buxton is the better player. If he could stay healthy, the debate would be between Buck and Trout.

[Battle ur tail off]

On 7/22/2021 at 10:25 PM, ashbury said:

What do you suggest as a fair contract offer to get the ball rolling?

Without numbers, we all may have our own idea what it means to "sign" Buxton, which might not happen to coincide closely with what Buxton himself has in mind.

It’s 5/110 or so and everyone knows it. Twins offer is laughable. Is it a risk at that money? Heck yeah, big time! That said, that is what he will get. He is the best athlete in the game and possibly the fastest. 10 million a year for this guy when garbage #4 pitchers make that is just not even close. He will get 20 mill per year or more whenever he signs a deal. Book it 

[Battle ur tail off]

2 hours ago, KirbyHawk75 said:

In a perfect world the Twins would sign both Berrios and Buxton.  I don't think that is happening.   I think it is time to trade them along with Rodgers and get some valuable young players and prospects.  They can join players like AK, TL, RL, and the young pitchers to give the Twins a nice young core.  Maybe that generation can win a playoff game or series.  I love them but the Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Rodgers, and Duffey group have proven they cannot win in the playoffs even with a vet like Cruz.  

They could have with an ace and a stud closer. But the Twins don’t ever go for it. That year they hit all the bombs they needed to go all in and of course didn’t. Afraid to ever go for it. Hold onto all their prospects, etc. this organization won’t win a title unless they are able to develop 3/5 of a pitching rotation and 3 solid bullpen arms and all are young and affordable. They simply do not have the guts to go for it when it is there for the taking 

[one_eyed_jack]

Hate to see it.  The injury history notwithstanding, you find a way to keep a player whose ceiling is that high.  They don’t come around often.   Not doing so feels like playing not to lose instead of playing to win. 
 

Maybe the problems was not so much with the Twins’ offer but with the Twins a what Byron really wants is a fresh start elsewhere?
 

Either way, I fear we are going to have to endure the excruciating experience of watching him become a hall-of-famer in another uniform. 

[prouster]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

When the Yankees signed Hicks, he was coming off a 7.2 bWAR and 5.2 bWAR per 162 seasons. Buxton was at 5.6 bWAR and 8.7 bWAR in 2019-2020.

Hicks also posted wRC+ numbers of better than 120 in 3 of his past 4 seasons. This season is a major outlier, but he was playing with a strained UCL.

Defense isn't worth as much as you might think. The difference between Buxton and Hicks in CF is 1.0 to 1.5 WAR over a full season because a large part of their defensive value comes from positional value. Between the two, based on the history, I find nothing to convince me Buxton's bat is better, and even arguing Buxton and Hicks are equal at the plate is awfully dubious. Hicks' wRC+ 120 performance at the plate has a 1500 plate appearance track record now. Buxton had never achieved that level of performance in his career until this luck fueled 110 plate appearance explosion.

My opinion is you're seriously overvaluing Buxton and seriously undervaluing Hicks (when they're on the field, that is)

Hicks’ career OPS+ is 98. I can see how cherry-picking stats makes them seem like equal players, though. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, prouster said:

Hicks’ career OPS+ is 98. I can see how cherry-picking stats makes them seem like equal players, though. 

Buxton's career OPS+ is only 100, though. Hicks isn't a terrible comp to Buxton, except Buxton is a little bit better at everything. Buxton is elite defensively while Hicks is "eh, whatever". And the mature version of Hicks seems to have settled in around a 120 OPS+ but I expect Buxton to land more in the 130-ish range.

Combine those two things and they're worth a couple of wins over a full season, provided Buxton ever plays a full season.

Hicks has also benefited quite a bit from that clowncar stadium in the Bronx, posting a 115 tOPS+ so the real talent level between the two players is possibly substantial and more than a couple of wins.

[Dodecahedron]

The message was clear that if the Buxton rejected the Twins offer, he would be traded at first opportunity.

For some reason, some around here gave a visceral defense of the Twins in that.

We will see what happens, but I expect the Twins will follow through.

[terrydactyls]

Obviously I don't know any specifics about the Twins' offer.  However, my question is:  If Buxton wants to bet on himself (which has been mentioned many times at Twins Daily), the Twins should offer him a base salary of $10M a year and escalating performance incentives that could add as much as $20M more each year.  If Buxton manages to play 150 games in a year, hit for a decent average, and continue his Gold Glove defense, he's worth $30M a year.  If he continues playing less than half the team's games, then $10M might be a slight overpay.  But that would be betting on yourself.

[Dodecahedron]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Rosenthal also reported Buxton's camp rejected an offer of $80MM guaranteed after the $73MM offer was rejected. Extension discussions were started in March or earlier this year.

https://www.startribune.com/byron-buxton-says-twins-are-talking-about-a-contract-extension/600031270/

With how this has played out in public in the last couple weeks, it certainly doesn't feel like this is a process which is just beginning.

Yes, some people were reading the news reports but missing the point.  

The report said if he did not accept the Twins offer, he would be traded, and maybe even traded by the trade deadline if the Twins could find a trade partner  At that time, the trade deadline was in two weeks.  Somehow, some people still read that as "a first step in negotiations."  It's not.  That's a threat, and feeding that to the media was a low blow.  No player or agent in his right mind is going to respond well to that.  Anyone with a minimal sense of pride or self-worth is going to move on, even accepting a lower offer, rather than stick around.  You can treat free agents this way, but not your players.

Whether the Twins were incredibly stupid here or were being @ssholes, we will never know.  My opinion leans toward the latter.

[beterday]

Anthony Rendon is making $245 million over 7 years, 35 mil. per year, and is injured this year.  How is this doing for the Angels?  That is my starting point for ill advised (stupid) signings, but Buxton has to be looking at at least mid 20 million per year and the Twins are at 11.4 per year.  LaVelle suggests $15 million per year plus incentives and I think Buxton turns that down, as well, but at least it is in the ballpark.  Betting on Buxton's upside is what the Twins need to do, in my opinion, or we fans will be watching him play for the Dodgers or Yankees for years to come as we fight for the title of the Central Division only to lose in the playoffs, first round,  We may never see a better player and yet we offer him 11 million when 20 wouldn't get it done.

[prouster]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Buxton's career OPS+ is only 100, though. Hicks isn't a terrible comp to Buxton, except Buxton is a little bit better at everything. Buxton is elite defensively while Hicks is "eh, whatever". And the mature version of Hicks seems to have settled in around a 120 OPS+ but I expect Buxton to land more in the 130-ish range.

Combine those two things and they're worth a couple of wins over a full season, provided Buxton ever plays a full season.

Hicks has also benefited quite a bit from that clowncar stadium in the Bronx, posting a 115 tOPS+ so the real talent level between the two players is possibly substantial and more than a couple of wins.

I agree with some of this, but I don't think there's any plausible way to bend the numbers so that Buxton and Hicks are similarly effective players. They have both battled injuries throughout their careers, they have a similar career OPS+, and they play center field. I think that's where the similarities end. Hicks has historically been quite a bit better getting on base, but Buxton has hit for extra bases at a much higher rate (Hicks = .399 career slugging, Buxton = .453; over the last three seasons Buxton has slugged .581 while Hicks has slugged .410). Career-wise, some of the batted ball data is similar, but over the last several years it has tilted heavily in Buxton's favor (see attached images). This reflects what analysts and scouts almost universally agree on: Buxton has elite talent, and over the last few seasons he has finally started to tap into that talent. This is not to mention Buxton's superior defensive and base running abilities. Lastly, I don't agree at all that Hicks has settled into a 120-ish OPS+ range. That's what he's put up the last few years, but that number is way, way down this year in part due to injuries. Hicks is 31. It's quite likely his best days are behind him.

The bottom line is that Hicks has been worth approximately as much over the last three seasons as Buxton has been for a third or so of this season alone. Buxton is a superior player and it's not particularly close. I'm not arguing that Hicks is bad, but that Buxton is elite.