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Sign Byron Buxton! (Buxton rejects initial extension offer)


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I’m 75, big twins fan since 61 I would even listen to Ray Scott and Halsey Hall broadcasting late night west coast games. Seen all the great twins players and teams. 
If the Twins don’t sign Byron, I’m done. Instead of watching, attending or listening to almost every game, I’ll quit all of it for good. He signs, I’ll continue to be a super Twins backer. I’m stubborn and really mean this. I’m just 1 fan, but I’ll bet there’s a lot more like me. 2 of my best lifelong buddies are pledging the same thing. Cmon Twins, make the rest of my senior years fun, watching the best player ever lead the team. Thanks 

 

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1 hour ago, Lartwinfan said:

I’m 75, big twins fan since 61 I would even listen to Ray Scott and Halsey Hall broadcasting late night west coast games. Seen all the great twins players and teams. 
If the Twins don’t sign Byron, I’m done. Instead of watching, attending or listening to almost every game, I’ll quit all of it for good. He signs, I’ll continue to be a super Twins backer. I’m stubborn and really mean this. I’m just 1 fan, but I’ll bet there’s a lot more like me. 2 of my best lifelong buddies are pledging the same thing. Cmon Twins, make the rest of my senior years fun, watching the best player ever lead the team. Thanks 

 

Sounds like you're much more of a Buxton fan than a Twins fan.

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One thing about Buxton is that he seems to have the worst luck of any player I've ever seen. So many of his injuries are freak accidents that most players never see more than one of in a career. If his injury luck balances out even a little bit, he should be in line for an extended stretch of good health. The Twins should be making every effort to sign him to a incentive heavy deal that pays him $20+M every year he plays 120 or more games.

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1 minute ago, twins_89 said:

One thing about Buxton is that he seems to have the worst luck of any player I've ever seen. So many of his injuries are freak accidents that most players never see more than one of in a career. If his injury luck balances out even a little bit, he should be in line for an extended stretch of good health. The Twins should be making every effort to sign him to a incentive heavy deal that pays him $20+M every year he plays 120 or more games.

I'm guessing the Twins are absolutely doing this.  But if Buxton thinks he can a non-incentive heavy deal that pays the same amount in 15 months, why would he do that?  It's not like he needs to worry about injuries impacting his value...at this point, Buxton has almost nothing to lose by waiting for FA.

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1 hour ago, Lartwinfan said:

I’m 75, big twins fan since 61 I would even listen to Ray Scott and Halsey Hall broadcasting late night west coast games. Seen all the great twins players and teams. 
If the Twins don’t sign Byron, I’m done. Instead of watching, attending or listening to almost every game, I’ll quit all of it for good. He signs, I’ll continue to be a super Twins backer. I’m stubborn and really mean this. I’m just 1 fan, but I’ll bet there’s a lot more like me. 2 of my best lifelong buddies are pledging the same thing. Cmon Twins, make the rest of my senior years fun, watching the best player ever lead the team. Thanks 

 

Me, too.   Buxton is a game changer!    
 

Like Sam Houston’s soldiers yelled “Remember Alamo!”, then I yell “Remember Ortiz”.   Look at David Ortiz did for Red Sox.        

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8 hours ago, Lartwinfan said:

Sign BB

What do you suggest as a fair contract offer to get the ball rolling?

Without numbers, we all may have our own idea what it means to "sign" Buxton, which might not happen to coincide closely with what Buxton himself has in mind.

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On 7/22/2021 at 10:25 PM, ashbury said:

What do you suggest as a fair contract offer to get the ball rolling?

Without numbers, we all may have our own idea what it means to "sign" Buxton, which might not happen to coincide closely with what Buxton himself has in mind.

I’d offer five years, $15m per season as a base. Every season at 80 games played, escalators begin to kick in that max out at $30m a season for 150 games played. 

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I'd offer absolutely nothing and trade him for whatever we can get no matter what he does the rest of this season. I wouldn't have offered him $70MM and any offer I'd make would be rejected so there's no point in messing around.

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17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd offer absolutely nothing and trade him for whatever we can get no matter what he does the rest of this season. I wouldn't have offered him $70MM and any offer I'd make would be rejected so there's no point in messing around.

This is a rather foolish approach. I understand being wary of extending Buxton but he's literally the most valuable player in baseball when he's on the field (highest WAR per game played since the start of the 2019 season). Trading that guy for "whatever we can get" is poor asset management. If Buxton is to be traded, the responsible thing to do is to try to trade him at a point when his value isn't bottomed out, probably this offseason.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is a rather foolish approach. I understand being wary of extending Buxton but he's literally the most valuable player in baseball when he's on the field (highest WAR per game played since the start of the 2019 season). Trading that guy for "whatever we can get" is poor asset management. If Buxton is to be traded, the responsible thing to do is to try to trade him at a point when his value isn't bottomed out, probably this offseason.

"no matter what he does the rest of the season" meaning, there's no need for the Twins to trade Buxton before the deadline.

They should move Buxton the moment they can get anything close to their asking price for Berrios during the season and drop a player from the requirement by the end of December. If the Twins can't get more than that, it tells you how the rest of baseball values him (and how the Twins should therefore value him).

Btw, there's no guarantee his value isn't peak right now. If Buxton returns, bats .150/.150/.150 for a month and then blows out his ACL, he'd obviously be worth next to nothing.

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Just now, bean5302 said:

"no matter what he does the rest of the season" meaning, there's no need for the Twins to trade Buxton before the deadline.

They should move Buxton the moment they can get anything close to their asking price for Berrios during the season and drop a player from the requirement by the end of December. If the Twins can't get more than that, it tells you how the rest of baseball values him (and how the Twins should therefore value him).

Btw, there's no guarantee his value isn't peak right now. If Buxton returns, bats .150/.150/.150 for a month and then blows out his ACL, he'd obviously be worth next to nothing.

Ah, okay, that makes more sense.

And no, there's no *guarantee* Buxton's value hasn't peaked but the chance his value is peaked right now is probably single-digit percentage points, a low enough risk to not be a real concern.

On the other hand, I've come over to the side where I believe Buxton should be the Twins' number one target. The Twins are never going to spend in the top third of baseball; if they're going to win, they need to gamble on upside and there's no bigger gamble nor bigger upside than Byron Buxton.

As fans, we often complain this team doesn't "take their shot" when competing. Betting on Buxton is the Twins taking their shot in a big way. If you get a single healthy season out of him at any point, he's Mike Trout level good, the kind of player that can be worth ten wins.

And if the team gets to the postseason, there's no bigger difference-maker on the field.

I say pay the man and "take your shot".

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1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ah, okay, that makes more sense.

And no, there's no *guarantee* Buxton's value hasn't peaked but the chance his value is peaked right now is probably single-digit percentage points, a low enough risk to not be a real concern.

On the other hand, I've come over to the side where I believe Buxton should be the Twins' number one target. The Twins are never going to spend in the top third of baseball; if they're going to win, they need to gamble on upside and there's no bigger gamble nor bigger upside than Byron Buxton.

As fans, we often complain this team doesn't "take their shot" when competing. Betting on Buxton is the Twins taking their shot in a big way. If you get a single healthy season out of him at any point, he's Mike Trout level good, the kind of player that can be worth ten wins.

And if the team gets to the postseason, there's no bigger difference-maker on the field.

I say pay the man and "take your shot".

You have a dramatically higher viewpoint of Byron Buxton's upside and value added than I do. If they were to both play full seasons (moon, sun, stars align), I wouldn't expect to see any significant difference in on field value between Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks.

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8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You have a dramatically higher viewpoint of Byron Buxton's upside and value added than I do. If they were to both play full seasons (moon, sun, stars align), I wouldn't expect to see any significant difference in on field value between Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks.

The numbers tell a very different story.

Byron Buxton Batting Stats for Years 2019 to 2021

Year PA G Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary
2019-2021 540 153 25 6 2 26 3 62 6.2 19 81 8.0 .540 .512 5.4 3.1 55 $9,950,000
Average 180 51 8 2 1 9 1 21 2 6 27 2.7     1.8 1.0 18 $3,316,667
Per 650 PA 650 185 31 8 3 32 4 75 8 23 98 9.7 1 1 6.5 3.8 67 $11,976,816

If you're not into WAR, here are his traditional numbers, which are equally eye-popping:

Byron Buxton Batting Stats for Years 2019 to 2021

Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2019-2021 MIN 153 540 504 88 142 44 4 33 92 21 4 25 129 .282 .322 .581 .903 139 293 5 6 2 3 1
Average 51 180 168 29 47 15 1 11 31 7 1 8 43           98 2 2 1 1 0
per 162 games 163 572 534 94 151 47 5 35 98 23 5 27 137           311 6 7 3 4 2
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Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

The numbers tell a very different story.

Byron Buxton Batting Stats for Years 2019 to 2021

Year PA G Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary
Average 180 51 8 2 1 9 1 21 2 6 27 2.7     1.8 1.0 18 $3,316,667
Per 650 PA 650 185 31 8 3 32 4 75 8 23 98 9.7 1 1 6.5 3.8 67 $11,976,816
2019-2021 540 153 25 6 2 26 3 62 6.2 19 81 8.0 .540 .512 5.4 3.1 55 $9,950,000

Numbers say what people want them to say. You want them to say Byron Buxton is the best player in baseball based on 3 partial seasons.

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Just now, bean5302 said:

Numbers say what people want them to say. You want them to say Byron Buxton is the best player in baseball based on 3 partial seasons.

Numbers don't say what I "want" them to say. They say Buxton is an elite level player if he's on the field.

And I have NOT said Byron Buxton is the best player in baseball. Argue what I've actually said, not what you think I've said.

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Numbers don't say what I "want" them to say. They say Buxton is an elite level player if he's on the field.

And I have NOT said Byron Buxton is the best player in baseball. Argue what I've actually said, not what you think I've said.

Numbers say what I want them to say when I use them to further my point. That's generally how honest arguments are made, and there's nothing wrong with that. Honestly, if numbers always said the same thing, there wouldn't be much to debate about baseball players. Anyway, the numbers you're using are intended to show, in a perfect world where Byron Buxton plays a full season, that he is the best player in baseball, are they not? I did assume you expected Buxton to play full seasons and be available when/if the Twins make the playoffs so maybe that's where I went off into the weeds?

The numbers you're using include what I consider to be a ludicrous 110 plate appearances from this year where it would make Byron Buxton look like the best hitter in MLB history, let alone currently. Since WAR is not truly a cumulative stat, Buxton's 2021 is artificially increasing his WAR value. I find nothing in his entire history to suggest Buxton can hit near the pace he's hitting right now and the underlying stats like BABIP, walk vs. strike out rates are screaming regression to me. I think I've seen you comment that Buxton turned a corner this year, but it seems clear to me a huge component to his added performance at the plate is just sheer luck. It is reasonable for me to think Buxton might have a wRC+ 120ish bat. That's fine. He's still a great player with a wRC+ 120ish bat. A solid 6 WAR player in a full season. He's just nowhere near the best player in MLB when he's on the field and since I only expect him to play 80 games a year, he's worth 3.0 WAR during the regular season. Of course, his 50% regular season availability means there's a 50% playoff availability, too. I think there are a lot better ways for the Twins to get 3.0 WAR a season and Buxton is too risky and expensive for the Twins right now.

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Need to wait until off-season to re-assess the situation from both sides.  Buxton might get back this year and tear up the league, or he might tear up some other part of his body.  

If I were GM, I would make one last push for Berrios, and, if no joy, move Berrios now and Buxton over the winter unless you can sign him then.....and if Berrios goes, might as well move Rogers and Duffy, too.  And if you can get something for Happ, Simmons, or any other rental, move them too.

This is both sad and exciting time for our club.

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Rosenthal also reported Buxton's camp rejected an offer of $80MM guaranteed after the $73MM offer was rejected. Extension discussions were started in March or earlier this year.

https://www.startribune.com/byron-buxton-says-twins-are-talking-about-a-contract-extension/600031270/

With how this has played out in public in the last couple weeks, it certainly doesn't feel like this is a process which is just beginning.

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