Sign Byron Buxton! (Buxton rejects initial extension offer)

[Murph]

On 7/22/2021 at 2:13 PM, Lartwinfan said:

The offer the Twins have made Buxton is RIDICULOUS.  They are paying Sanó the same money this year.  Buck's one of the top players in all of baseball, and the Twins' offer is insulting, to say the least.  

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, prouster said:

I agree with some of this, but I don't think there's any plausible way to bend the numbers so that Buxton and Hicks are similarly effective players. They have both battled injuries throughout their careers, they have a similar career OPS+, and they play center field. I think that's where the similarities end. Hicks has historically been quite a bit better getting on base, but Buxton has hit for extra bases at a much higher rate (Hicks = .399 career slugging, Buxton = .453; over the last three seasons Buxton has slugged .581 while Hicks has slugged .410). Career-wise, some of the batted ball data is similar, but over the last several years it has tilted heavily in Buxton's favor (see attached images). This reflects what analysts and scouts almost universally agree on: Buxton has elite talent, and over the last few seasons he has finally started to tap into that talent. This is not to mention Buxton's superior defensive and base running abilities. Lastly, I don't agree at all that Hicks has settled into a 120-ish OPS+ range. That's what he's put up the last few years, but that number is way, way down this year in part due to injuries. Hicks is 31. It's quite likely his best days are behind him.

The bottom line is that Hicks has been worth approximately as much over the last three seasons as Buxton has been for a third or so of this season alone. Buxton is a superior player and it's not particularly close. I'm not arguing that Hicks is bad, but that Buxton is elite.

To be clear, *today* Buxton is the better player and I don’t think it’s close. I was examining Hicks’ prime age seasons more than what we can expect him to do going forward because, as you said, he’s already over 30. It’s entirely possible he isn’t even a centerfielder in the near future. 

[prouster]

22 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

To be clear, *today* Buxton is the better player and I don’t think it’s close. I was examining Hicks’ prime age seasons more than what we can expect him to do going forward because, as you said, he’s already over 30. It’s entirely possible he isn’t even a centerfielder in the near future. 

Right. Over their careers there are some similarities, but at the moment it’s not close. If both players were to retire today, I don’t think there would be much disagreement that Buxton has had the better peak. 

[Taildragger8791]

Has there been any update on Buxton's wrist recovery? Last I saw, a month ago, they were evaluating whether or not he'd need surgery. Has a determination been made or is it still wait and see?

[HokieRif]

I'm late to the party on this discussion but I'm not upset or perplexed by the offer, the rejection, and the whole situation.  when he's healthy Buxton is one of if not the best at his position in the game.  There's a reason we have the record we do when he's in the lineup.  The problem is that going back to his initial call-up in 2015 he's barely been able to play in 50+% of the games.  The Twins offer may be considered low, but I'm also not faulting them for not wanting to overpay for a player they know cannot stay healthy.  They want him back, and if the reports that there were incentives throughout the contract are true then I think the FO is doing the right thing for the franchise.  It sucks, but if the two sides can't figure this out then the best and most risk-averse thing to do is trade him now.

[Number3]

I can't see why Buxton could possibly expect more than to be put on semi probation loaded with incentives and then go for a serious contract after the 2022 season. Knowing the Twins, they will probably buckle and make an offer he can't refuse simply because they have no roster to fall back on.  Best case would be for some other team to make an offer the Twins can't refuse but that won't happen. Empathy for Buxton and his injury situation is appropriate but this is professional sports and being available to actually take the field is kind of important.

[Shane Tracy]

Let him go !

[tim5189]

7 years for a player that misses over half the games is ridiculous at any price! $10 million for a half time player, no matter how good, is over paying. How many full time players are making $20 million? BTW I am a fan of Buxton, he is a great player, when he plays!

[KirbyDome89]

17 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

A lot of that depends on how easy the escalators are to attain and how much they pay out too.  Sure, the base isn't amazing, but I also think people WAY overestimate how much money is available to him as a free agent.

Teams have a several season behavior trend of being much more risk averse.  Especially on the term component.

That's true about the escalators/incentives, but if I'm Buxton, why would I rely on hitting some of those when I can have the money guaranteed. I get that the Twins offer possibly (hopefully) went over that $15M base with relatively attainable escalators but there's nothing stopping other teams from simply guaranteeing the lower end escalators/incentives and structuring their own higher end escalators. 

Would you be surprised to see offers with a high AAV and a short number of years? Personally I wouldn't; I could see him making $70-$80M in 3-4 years. At that point I don't know why he'd want to lock himself into 7 years, unless the Twins' escalators were not only easy to reach but also lucrative. 

[Battle ur tail off]

47 minutes ago, Number3 said:

I can't see why Buxton could possibly expect more than to be put on semi probation loaded with incentives and then go for a serious contract after the 2022 season. Knowing the Twins, they will probably buckle and make an offer he can't refuse simply because they have no roster to fall back on.  Best case would be for some other team to make an offer the Twins can't refuse but that won't happen. Empathy for Buxton and his injury situation is appropriate but this is professional sports and being available to actually take the field is kind of important.

He can expect it because he agent is at work feeling around and knows it's 20+ per year the minute he hits the FA market. Yes, he has another year of arb left, but the fact is, he WILL be paid much more than the offer the Twins gave. That is why he is doing it. Would you take an offer that is half of what the rest of the league will offer you? No one would. He and his agent are not dumb. They will flat out not accept this token offer from the Twins. 

[Whitey333]

Sorry but people who suggest Buxton is as good as Trout if he stays on the field are way over estimating his value.  These facts matter to me:. He has only played in 37% of all the Twins games the past 4 seasons.  Also he has a lifetime .247 batting average including this year.  Yes he's had a great April.  Yes he is a great center fielder, but overall he's been a slightly above producing player.  He needs to prove he can stay on the field.  You don't pay " superstar"  money for a part time player.  It makes no sense.  One of the few times I'm with Twins management on this 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That's true about the escalators/incentives, but if I'm Buxton, why would I rely on hitting some of those when I can have the money guaranteed. I get that the Twins offer possibly (hopefully) went over that $15M base with relatively attainable escalators but there's nothing stopping other teams from simply guaranteeing the lower end escalators/incentives and structuring their own higher end escalators. 

Would you be surprised to see offers with a high AAV and a short number of years? Personally I wouldn't; I could see him making $70-$80M in 3-4 years. At that point I don't know why he'd want to lock himself into 7 years, unless the Twins' escalators were not only easy to reach but also lucrative. 

I agree on that second paragraph. His best bet will be to take some large, short-term contracts and bet on himself.  But I don't expect those to be much more than 2/30 with protections built in for the club.  (Like, the second year is mutual option)

My beef is with people not understanding that a 7 year offer structure has a lower AAV because of the security it provides Buck.  He is trading larger salaries for a longer commitment by the club with incentives.  Likewise he could trade the years for more guarantees.

But he will not get both.  That's what people need to stop conflating.

[ashbury]

The thing that is hard to factor in, is how much different a player like Buxton is worth to a large-revenue team. 

No team has infinite resources.  They won't bend over backward for just every above-average player.  But in the case like Buxton's, if they think that his 2021 performance numbers reflect a new and permanent level of ability (or even close), then it's a fair risk to give Buxton $100M or more of guaranteed money, for the chance that he'll be at full strength during the post-season, which (for those teams) is the only fraction of the ballplaying year they care about. It's worth a seasonal $20M (in a budget of $200M) if he turned out to be the difference in winning an extra playoff series. If that $20M comes to nothing? Oh well.

He's literally worth more to the Dodgers and a few others, than to the Twins. That's the reason the Twins can't offer him full market value - they can't afford to carry the same budget risk as the big boys.  Specifically they can't afford the "oh well" scenario.

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

I agree on that second paragraph. His best bet will be to take some large, short-term contracts and bet on himself.  But I don't expect those to be much more than 2/30 with protections built in for the club.  (Like, the second year is mutual option)

My beef is with people not understanding that a 7 year offer structure has a lower AAV because of the security it provides Buck.  He is trading larger salaries for a longer commitment by the club with incentives.  Likewise he could trade the years for more guarantees.

But he will not get both.  That's what people need to stop conflating.

People understand it. But what we don't understand is why would the Twins make a 7/70 offer when a 5/100 will be on the table? It's insulting and a classic "we tried" move. 

 

Teams flat out WILL pay Buxton that kind of money. It's risky, but it will happen. Twins are off the mark by about 20-40% just like they always are when this kind of thing happens. Leopards can't change their spots. 

 

Hunter 3/45 - 5/90

Santana - 4/80 - 6/137

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

18 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

People understand it. But what we don't understand is why would the Twins make a 7/70 offer when a 5/100 will be on the table? It's insulting and a classic "we tried" move. 

 

Teams flat out WILL pay Buxton that kind of money. It's risky, but it will happen. Twins are off the mark by about 20-40% just like they always are when this kind of thing happens. Leopards can't change their spots. 

 

Hunter 3/45 - 5/90

Santana - 4/80 - 6/137

I could be wrong, but I think there is zero chance Byron Buxton gets 5 years with a guaranteed 100M.  If that is offered, it will be with a litany of opt-out options the team has built in to protect them.  Effectively making it a much lower deal with incentives.  Just like the ones the Twins seem to be offering.

In a league where almost no one gets 5 years....it ain't gonna be Buxton that breaks that trend.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

I agree on that second paragraph. His best bet will be to take some large, short-term contracts and bet on himself.  But I don't expect those to be much more than 2/30 with protections built in for the club.  (Like, the second year is mutual option)

My beef is with people not understanding that a 7 year offer structure has a lower AAV because of the security it provides Buck.  He is trading larger salaries for a longer commitment by the club with incentives.  Likewise he could trade the years for more guarantees.

But he will not get both.  That's what people need to stop conflating.

Yep, getting both is highly unlikely.

I get what the Twins are doing, but if I'm Buxton it's just way too team friendly of an offer. They can sell it as security, and in some sense it is, but the reality is the Twins are buying low. I wish they would make the shorter term higher AAV offer we both think he can command

[TheLeviathan]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yep, getting both is highly unlikely.

I get what the Twins are doing, but if I'm Buxton it's just way too team friendly of an offer. They can sell it as security, and in some sense it is, but the reality is the Twins are buying low. I wish they would make the shorter term higher AAV offer we both think he can command

I totally understand why Buck would reject the deal.  I'm pushing back more on the mythical pedestal/non-accurate understanding of the market the negotiations are happening in.

[bean5302]

What a team might pay him in free agency right now is fun to debate, but moot.

He has 2 years and $30MM guaranteed left as a non-catastrophic case scenario because he's going to get a QO at the end of 2022. He'll technically be 29 at the start of free agency for the 2023 season. There is little incentive for the Twins to offer, or for Buxton to accept, a short extension.

Buxton can get 1-2 year high AAV contracts each year (like Nelson Cruz) when he comes to free agency if he doesn't decline too far, but teams taking a 1-2 year risk is totally different than a 7 year risk.

 

[Steve71]

Dan Hayes just posted an article in The Athletic which includes a quote from Buxton today:  Paraphrasing, he says he wants to stay here, his representatives are working on the deal, and the guaranteed money is fine!  The hangup is the structure and amounts of the incentives.

To me, that sounds like it can be worked out.  Fingers crossed.