So when do we believe?

[Darius]

I understand a lot of the skepticism when it comes to the Twins. But, I think I’m sold on this team.

 

The pitching makes me nervous. But, they’ll have to add some bullpen pieces at some point. The rotation, barring injury, is good enough.

 

I think the offense will be consistently great all year. Polanco is legitimately one of the best offensive infielders in the American League. He could win the batting title. Cruz is being Cruz, and that will continue. I think Buxtonand Garver have turned a corner and will continue to perform at relatively high levels. Rosario, Kepler, and Schoop will each have 1-2 power binges this year. Cron will consistently provide power. These guys have been carrying the offense and I expect that to continue.

 

When you consider adding a healthy/productive Sano to that lineup. Marwin Gonzalez turning things on and providing some solid pop. Astudillo getting healthy and returning to form. A guy like Arraez getting called up.....I just don’t see this offense slowing. This offense is right up there with the Astros and Yankees. We’re playing in a poor division (aka a lot of games against bad teams). I think finishing behind Houston for the best record in the league in very possible.

[wsnydes]

While I'm definitely encouraged, I do think there is regression to be had. That said, this division is so bad that I do expect them to win the division relatively easily at this point. I don't really think that they're as good as their record indicates, but they can only play those teams that are on the schedule when they're on the schedule. Even if they do win 100+ games, I'm still not going to be sold that they're truly one of the big boys unless they go out and beat the big boys in a playoff series. Their pitching margin for error is far too thin and I don't think it sets up well for a playoff series.

 

All that said, I'm most certainly enjoying the ride and hope that I'm wrong on the pitching. The bats and defense certainly play as a contender, so it's all about how far the pitching will take them.

[Platoon]

Pragmatist? More like cynic, or at least skeptic. Hair splitting aside, I get the sentiment. I’m loving this Team. The capital t is intentional, as they seem to have a lot of mojo and cohesiveness—the kind of team a GM should feel confident supplementing.

But it is a long way to the finish line, and stuff happens. I think it would be wise and pragmatic to supplemenT soon, while the iron is hot.

Well when a pragmatist looks at something that's too good to be true, he would tend to be cynical or skeptical. When he looks at something that at the time looks worse than it is he would tend to be hopeful and positive. I will say this though. Long term MN sports fans have learned the pitfalls of positivity!

[MABB1959]

I am excited!  This coaching staff seems to know how to get the best out of the players.  Most of the players are the same except for now having a power hitting 1st baseman and a real DH.  I loved  Dozier but the last 3 years were tough but they kept putting him in the line-up.  2 of his last 3 years he had an entire bad half of a year and last year it seem the whole year was tough on him.  I also think there is more consistency in the line-up.  Over the past few years it was mixed up every night.  They seem to have a team leader in Cruz and accountability.  They all know there are others who can take their spots away.  It just seems like a good team.

 

[stringer bell]

I think the offense is top quarter of MLB. Run suppression has been unexpectedly good, but I don’t see much depth. The team need to augment their pitching by the deadline, because we know injuries and ineffectiveness will happen. They will need to pitch with the very best to be the very best. The division is there for the taking.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't know at what date on the calendar you can start to believe.

But I'll echo what others have suggested, this team just feels real to me. It's one of those things you can't put your finger on, but you know it when you see it.

[ChrisKnutson]

Magill, Harper, and Morin are fine when we’re playing teams like Seattle, but when it comes to facing Boston, Houston, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and New York, there’s no doubt that we need more dynamic arms in our bullpen. If we’re really WS contenders, arms like Iglesias, Doolittle, Givens, and Smith have to be on our radar.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I won't guess how many games the Twins will win this year, but I'll bet it will be more than we've seen in a lot of years.

 

Regarding "trades to improve the team" I say forget it. A lot of fans, including a number of TD participants, have complained for years about the perceived lack of team leadership and team chemistry when we were losing more games than we could win. Now we have both team leadership and chemistry. And we're winning games. I say don't screw with it. Don't mess with the magic. If we trade one player, no matter how minor his role may be, or add one player who hasn't been part of what's cooking with these guys so far this season that long-sought "team" chemistry will evaporate like stale beer. Let's keep flowing with those who've been rowing.

 

 

 

 

[Rosterman]

The Twins have a lot of minor league talent, currently on their 40-man, or who need to be protected next season, plus some promising depth, key word is promising.

 

If the Twins continue, they need to make some decisions. How important are Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, Castro (and maybe Schoop and Cron) to the organization. Do they move them for more depth in the minors, and promote others from within.

 

Or, suddenly, you could see the Twins not just subtracting some parts, but being a major buyer. If a Verlander was available come July, I would move the necessary pieces for a pitcher of that caliber. Heck, I would like to see the Twins take a flyer on Kimbrel if they can meet a price, as he only costs money. The Twins have some payroll. If they can swap out pieces for other pieces that may still be suitable for coming seasons, go for it.

 

Again, they have the dept in the system. They have people like Littell, Gonsalves, Thorpe that need to come up or get passed by. They have Nick Gordon and Luis Arreaz but have a thriving Polanco, as well as names like Lewis and Javier in the minors.

 

Once again, Sano will be a big decision maker. Is he the future, or has he reached his pinnacle of performance. Is he a third baseman or a first baseman.

 

The Twins do need a topflight bullpen closer if the starters keep winning (and they have been impressive of late). They need to keep their power-in-the-field, but could possibly transition out Schoop if they think someone, anyone else, could play second base with the same (or slightly faster) skillset.

 

Are they for real? Think they are. The division is weak. If they can tack on a few more games of a lead before the end of May, everyone better start believing,

 

I want to see how the Twins market this team. I don't see The Target Field experience working anymore. Can they make games fun in some ways so people will come and enjoy the product on the field? 

[jud6312]

I've got 3 tickets I got at Caesar's saying I'm a believer - division, pennant, and series.

[Doomtints]

 

This team is 28-15, on the verge of 29-15. They are just +1 in pythag, just +1 in BaseRuns (if you look at the numbers, it's fractional and they're basically +0 after tonight).

 

I have to admit that I've been a pretty hard sell on this team and I still expect them to regress. Fangraphs has them at a 91 win pace. I don't disagree.

 

So what's your over/under on that?

 

I'm gonna fan out for a minute and go the over.

 

This group reminds me a bit of the 2001 Twins who were 30-13 at one point and finished with 85 wins. Let's see how things look a bit after the all star break.

 

The 2001 Twins were 56-32 before the wheels came off, so I would say for a team's first good year in an era, you want 100 games before you can trust what you are seeing. For a team repeating on earlier success you obviously don't need such a big sample.

 

The 1970s, too, were filled with Twins teams who started strong and finished ... not so strong.

[stringer bell]

 

This group reminds me a bit of the 2001 Twins who were 30-13 at one point and finished with 85 wins. Let's see how things look a bit after the all star break.

 

The 2001 Twins were 56-32 before the wheels came off, so I would say for a team's first good year in an era, you want 100 games before you can trust what you are seeing. For a team repeating on earlier success you obviously don't need such a big sample.

 

The 1970s, too, were filled with Twins teams who started strong and finished ... not so strong.

The 2001 had several players break out who had never broken out before. In particular Guzman and Mienkiewicz were far better offensive performers. The team was young across the board. The 2019 team has a much more veteran cast. I like the chances that the current lineup sustains much of what they've started. I am not sure the pitching staff can continue to perform at the high level they've been at most of the year.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Skepticism over believe every day. It doesn't matter one bit if I do, or don't, believe in them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The 2001 had several players break out who had never broken out before. In particular Guzman and Mienkiewicz were far better offensive performers. The team was young across the board. The 2019 team has a much more veteran cast. I like the chances that the current lineup sustains much of what they've started. I am not sure the pitching staff can continue to perform at the high level they've been at most of the year.

It was also much more flawed... 

[Mr. Brooks]

I won't guess how many games the Twins will win this year, but I'll bet it will be more than we've seen in a lot of years.

 

Regarding "trades to improve the team" I say forget it. A lot of fans, including a number of TD participants, have complained for years about the perceived lack of team leadership and team chemistry when we were losing more games than we could win. Now we have both team leadership and chemistry. And we're winning games. I say don't screw with it. Don't mess with the magic. If we trade one player, no matter how minor his role may be, or add one player who hasn't been part of what's cooking with these guys so far this season that long-sought "team" chemistry will evaporate like stale beer. Let's keep flowing with those who've been rowing.

I don't buy that.

It wasn't "broken" in Houston, but they went and added Verlander anyways. Worked out pretty well.

I'd say if a team gets destroyed by adding an unfamiliar face, then they weren't mentally tough enough to win a title anyway.

[h2oface]

I believed before the season started. I can't find the thread to make sure (I can never find stuff by using the TD search! I didn't do it on the OFFICIAL Twins Daily 2019 Twins Predictions, but some other thread that was just about total wins), but I think I picked 92 wins. I believe, but I want 100 wins! And trade for Pressly with the Astros, and sign Kimbrel!

[DocBauer]

I never publicly predicted because I was between 85-95 wins depending on a few things happening. Right now, approaching the 1/4 point, I'm 90-95 wins.

 

Touching a few points:

 

Lineup: More than good enough and deep enough to continue to be productive and dangerous. Even now, we've had some dings, no hopeful Sano until a few days ago, and still producing. Lots of versatily, even with a mostly static lineup..(nod to you Brian, lol).

 

We can talk "career" years and argue regression all day. But for most of this team, and their production, this is what history and potential says they are SUPPOSED TO DO.

 

And the defense has been mostly good to outstanding!

 

SP: All my years, I've seen a ton of guys, mid-level and high-level guys who never hit their stride until 27-29. And some who at least approached #1 status and held it for a few years. Was always envious the Twins never seemed to find one of those guys. Gibson has basically done that, despite a slow start this year coming off illness. Is it possible we found TWO guys in Perez and Odorizzi? Maybe we are just due, along with a boost from Johnson.

 

The still improving Pineda doesnt scare me. Depth does. With a little luck, everyone will remain healthy for the next month or so when some of the guys at AAA are 100% and rounding in to form. But this is the best rotation we have had in years!

 

BP: Not great. Better and more productive than anyone expected. But I dont see any way this group, without HUGE development, can last the season or crunch time without at least 1 more big, solid, dependable arm.

 

Its OK to hope for Romero and Mejia to settle in and provide a big boost. But you cant bet the season, or postseason on it.

 

A trade or signing is a must!

 

Now, then, we are talking potential 95 win team.

[ashbury]

Under.

 

I'm hoping to be proved wrong. And I'm enjoying the ride very much so far.

[Old Twins Cap]

The question, "When do we start to believe?" the answer is simple:  When you believe.

 

To rely on data, to continue to assess outcomes, to weigh pros and cons is kind of a cop out.

 

Who believes in a religion by comparing weights and measures?

 

Who believes in love by taking a partner's weight after each date?

 

You believe when you believe.

 

And there is evidence, anecdotal, ethnographic and analytic, that the team with strong believers and vigorous public support, actually musters better outcomes as a result.

 

In other words, belief can create wins, especially at Target Field.

 

So, to everyone who is sitting back and waiting, the rest of us say, C'mon in, the water fine, and you just might help us win a championship.

 

 

 

[VATwinsFan]

I was cautiously optimistic coming into the season and am optimistic now.  The ability they've shown to score runs is ridiculous and the starting pitching has been better than I expected (the Twins have 3 of the top 9 pitchers in all of baseball for the number of wins and 3 of the top 22 for ERA).

 

That said, I still think they need another proven starter and another proven reliever.

 

In addition, as someone in another thread has noted, the ability of the Yankees to win w/o Hicks/Stanton/Judge/Bird et al should scare the you know what out of everybody.

 

WIN TWINS!!!

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well the thing is, I’m old school. And the old school baseball saying keeps ringing in my mind: “only speed doesn’t slump.”

 

Meaning... hitters slump. Pitchers slump. Maybe even fielding. Who knows. We’ll see.

 

I am enjoying the ride, for sure! Also, I am not sleeping on Cleveland. Huge blow to lose Kluber, but they still have a formidable lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised from June to October they outhit the Twins.

 

So I’m not “believing” yet, but I do believe the Twins have put themselves in a pretty strong position.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Huge blow to lose Kluber, but they still have a formidable lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised from June to October they outhit the Twins.

So I’m not “believing” yet, but I do believe the Twins have put themselves in a pretty strong position.

 

Really? The Indians are averaging 3.84 runs per game and Fangraphs projects their rest of season offense far below the Twins. I would be shocked if they outhit the Twins over the remainder of the year. I could see the Twins pitching staff disintegrating, but the Twins are clearly a better offensive team . . . I struggle to see how that's even debatable. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Really? The Indians are averaging 3.84 runs per game and Fangraphs projects their rest of season offense far below the Twins. I would be shocked if they outhit the Twins over the remainder of the year. I could see the Twins pitching staff disintegrating, but the Twins are clearly a better offensive team . . . I struggle to see how that's even debatable.

 

This is not the thread for reality checks, I guess.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This is not the thread for reality checks, I guess.

 

Feel free to provide some objective data that supports your generously-provided "reality check." 

[PseudoSABR]

It's only the lack of pitching depth that worries. The lineup has depth both on the roster and at AAA.  I hope the FO recognizes the opportunity, and ownership approves signing Kimbrel after the draft (wishful thinking). Like others have noted, the Twins can acquire RPers through trade, given their soon to be Rule 5 eligible players of value. I also think Mejia and/or Romero will emerge as a solid option when they grow accustomed to their new role. The Twins really need starting pitching depth, because Kohl Stewart sounds like a lot of losses, and he's the first guy. I hope Thorpe, and Gonsalvez when he returns start dealing. I see dealing for starting pitching less likely, given the cost. 

 

Here's to the team's health!

[ashbury]

Under.

10-0 in the third inning tonight. This post did not age well. I don't want to place a jinx on them by taking the over, now, though.

[lecroy24fan]

I can pinpoint my exact day.

 

[Riverbrian]

 

It's only the lack of pitching depth that worries. The lineup has depth both on the roster and at AAA.  I hope the FO recognizes the opportunity, and ownership approves signing Kimbrel after the draft (wishful thinking). Like others have noted, the Twins can acquire RPers through trade, given their soon to be Rule 5 eligible players of value. I also think Mejia and/or Romero will emerge as a solid option when they grow accustomed to their new role. The Twins really need starting pitching depth, because Kohl Stewart sounds like a lot of losses, and he's the first guy. I hope Thorpe, and Gonsalvez when he returns start dealing. I see dealing for starting pitching less likely, given the cost. 

 

Here's to the team's health!

 

I also worry about the pitching depth but I remain neutral by stating that I don't know if we do or do not have pitching depth yet because I don't know how they will adjust when injuries or performance issues arise. 

 

Because we are not talking about our father's depth anymore. That's why I'm watching deployment... we are deploying somewhat traditionally at the moment. As long as we are faithfully rotating 5 starters and using half of the bullpen in low leverage situations in a traditional manner... I will have some worry. 

 

However... Baldelli comes from the Rays and this mitigates my worry or at least delays it until I see how the Twins react. 

 

Exhibit A: Look at the current state of the Rays Rotation on the link below. 

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-tampa-bay-rays/

 

It is similar in structure to last year. 

 

Exhibit B: Look at the innings distribution on the link below. Check G/GS/IP of each member of the staff. 

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/rays

 

You can see that the lines are blurred, bullpen guys throwing more innings. Check the names, the majority of the names were not well known names. Still not well known names in some cases. 

 

Exhibit C: Check how the Tampa staff compares to the rest of the American league. In the link below. 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/league/al

 

Exhibit D: And of course... The standings on the link below. 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings

 

 

 

I'm thinking that Kohl Stewart doesn't have to do what Berrios is doing. It can be maneuvered around as illustrated in exhibit A,B,C and D. But we are going to need more arms than Baldelli is currently using in high leverage situations. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Feel free to provide some objective data that supports your generously-provided "reality check."

 

As I type this, a majority of the roster is OPS-ing over .800, which is well above the league average of about .750.

[Riverbrian]

 

As I type this, a majority of the roster is OPS-ing over .800, which is well above the league average of about .750.

 

I usually consider this a good thing.