So when do we believe?

[PseudoSABR]

 

I also worry about the pitching depth but I remain neutral by stating that I don't know if we do or do not have pitching depth yet because I don't know how they will adjust when injuries or performance issues arise. 

I think the lack of knowledge about depth itself tips the scale towards concerning rather than mere neutral. I think you present meaningful anecdotal evidence that the deployment of depth can take many shapes, some of those which can mitigate depth, but I'm not sure that Rocco is actually in charge of such deployment (thus how meaningful is the Rays data?); I mean we did just roster the second Austin Adams, whom the first also drew who responses (they met today, evidently and charmingly).  

[DiscGolfer]

I think now is about the time to believe in this team if you don't already.  Easiest strength of schedule moving forward will help out.  I'll put the win total at 95-100.  This team ins't perfect and there'll be some rough spots but overall I think this team is built to win.  Playoff bound for sure, how far they go in the playoffs will be fun to find out.  

 

I believe in the front office to make some moves to improve the team as the year goes on.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think the lack of knowledge about depth itself tips the scale towards concerning rather than mere neutral. I think you present meaningful anecdotal evidence that the deployment of depth can take many shapes, some of those which can mitigate depth, but I'm not sure that Rocco is actually in charge of such deployment (thus how meaningful is the Rays data?); I mean we did just roster the second Austin Adams, whom the first also drew who responses (they met today, evidently and charmingly).  

 

I agree.

 

Just because Rocco came from the Rays doesn't mean the Rays are coming with him.

 

However... When I see the results the Rays are generating. I personally hope that Rocco is taking a piece of that with him. It wouldn't speak highly of Rocco or the front office to purposely leave behind something the Rays are having success with. 

 

 

That's why I'm spending the season watching how they deploy who they roster and not who they roster. 

 

They can sign 4 guys named Austin Adams if they'd like. I've decided to trust the front office to do their job with the information that they have. What they think of each player they roster will be apparent by how they deploy each player that they roster.

 

If it's May and If the 4 guys named Austin Adams only get into the game when it's an 18-4 like score. I'll know they are short on depth.  

 

When the first rotation injury occurs... If all they do is slam Kohl Stewart into the rotation and let him keep rotating traditionally, conventionally, with a 5 plus ERA... I'll know we are short on depth and ideas. 

 

If they think they can get by with just 4 trusted members of the bullpen because the rotation is throwing 7 innings a turn... OK, I'll trust the front office but it's May and one of those 4 trusted members of the bullpen is in Rochester. 

 

So yeah... Data incomplete... I'm watching to see what happens after whatever happens next. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

To rely on data, to continue to assess outcomes, to weigh pros and cons is kind of a cop out.

 

Who believes in a religion by comparing weights and measures?

 

Who believes in love by taking a partner's weight after each date?

 

You believe when you believe.

 

You’ll never get good results if you take the wrong metrics. Faith is believing without seeing and metrics are a great facilitator for the uninitiated. That is what Pythag is all about.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I can pinpoint my exact day.

 

https://twitter.com/Plouffe24Fan/status/1107149420934717441

is your Twitter profile pic you with La Tortuga? If so, make it your TD profile pic too. That’s awesome!

[USAFChief]

I believe this is a good team that will be, at minimum, in contention all season.

 

And a fun team to watch, to boot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I believe this is a good team that will be, at minimum, in contention all season.

And a fun team to watch, to boot.

yeah, I don't think it's going to be hard to stay interested in baseball this season...  

 

Hopefully, we're still in contention in the post season.

[AZTwin]

Reminder. Still 65 games against the AL Central. 49 of which are against teams under .500

[jctwins]

Seeing the promotion for the Mauer bobblehead makes me think...

 

Perhaps Mauer was part of the problem rather than part of the solution here. 

 

Could his departure be a reason for the different vibe on this club? The highest paid and arguably "most valuable" player is no longer the quietest?

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I usually consider this a good thing.

So do I? Fun to watch. I said I thought the hitting would come back to earth, and that I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland out-hit the Twins from June onwards. (Which is much different from saying I guarantee Cleveland would out-hit the Twins.) Another poster challenged me on that pretty mild statement... anyway, since this is not the thread for wait-and-see , I will show myself out.

[Riverbrian]

 

So do I? Fun to watch. I said I thought the hitting would come back to earth, and that I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland out-hit the Twins from June onwards. (Which is much different from saying I guarantee Cleveland would out-hit the Twins.) Another poster challenged me on that pretty mild statement... anyway, since this is not the thread for wait-and-see , I will show myself out.

 

Yeah I read the exchange. 

 

You shouldn't make such statements right before the team hits 6 home runs in one game.  

[ashbury]

As I type this, a majority of the roster is OPS-ing over .800, which is well above the league average of about .750.

The league average would be even lower if our guys weren't helping prop it up.

[Doomtints]

My belief is just as it was before the season started -- this team can do a lot of damage.

 

I still don't see a team that can beat the Yankees in the playoffs. Not with this bullpen.

[ToddlerHarmon]

 

 

Because we are not talking about our father's depth anymore. That's why I'm watching deployment... we are deploying somewhat traditionally at the moment. As long as we are faithfully rotating 5 starters and using half of the bullpen in low leverage situations in a traditional manner... I will have some worry. 

 

However... Baldelli comes from the Rays and this mitigates my worry or at least delays it until I see how the Twins react. 

 

Exhibit B: Look at the innings distribution on the link below. Check G/GS/IP of each member of the staff. 

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/rays

 

You can see that the lines are blurred, bullpen guys throwing more innings. Check the names, the majority of the names were not well known names. Still not well known names in some cases. 

 

 

I count a long man, an opener, two firemen/OOGYs, two holders/closers, and two low-leverage, without looking at which games each appears in, or hold/save stats. That's eight. The unsustainable looks like the holder/closers with appearances in half of the games, not the opener and long man with larger inning loads. We shall see what the second half brings. But they have definitely decided that sharp pitchers matter more than spelled hitters, and I don't see much reason to argue that.

 

Now to go hunting for those roles in the twins bullpen...

[jud6312]

 

I am not sleeping on Cleveland. Huge blow to lose Kluber, but they still have a formidable lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised from June to October they outhit the Twins.
 

 

I'm also not counting Cleveland out, but it has more to do with their pitching ability (should Clevinger and Kluber return to form and they keep Bauer) than anything else.

 

Aside from Lindor and Ramirez, who I expect to bounce back, and maybe Santana, there's not a whole lot of what I'd call potent bats in their lineup.

 

Am I missing someone/something when I look at it?

[Mr. Brooks]

So do I? Fun to watch. I said I thought the hitting would come back to earth, and that I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland out-hit the Twins from June onwards. (Which is much different from saying I guarantee Cleveland would out-hit the Twins.) Another poster challenged me on that pretty mild statement... anyway, since this is not the thread for wait-and-see , I will show myself out.

The Twins will regress some on offense. But, I don't know how anyone can look at their lineups side by side and think Cleveland has any realistic chance of out hitting the Twins the rest of the way.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Sign Kimbro for one year, trade Sano and Gordon for Madbum. Go for it.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I agree.

 

Just because Rocco came from the Rays doesn't mean the Rays are coming with him.

 

However... When I see the results the Rays are generating. I personally hope that Rocco is taking a piece of that with him. It wouldn't speak highly of Rocco or the front office to purposely leave behind something the Rays are having success with. 

 

 

That's why I'm spending the season watching how they deploy who they roster and not who they roster. 

 

They can sign 4 guys named Austin Adams if they'd like. I've decided to trust the front office to do their job with the information that they have. What they think of each player they roster will be apparent by how they deploy each player that they roster.

 

If it's May and If the 4 guys named Austin Adams only get into the game when it's an 18-4 like score. I'll know they are short on depth.  

 

When the first rotation injury occurs... If all they do is slam Kohl Stewart into the rotation and let him keep rotating traditionally, conventionally, with a 5 plus ERA... I'll know we are short on depth and ideas. 

 

If they think they can get by with just 4 trusted members of the bullpen because the rotation is throwing 7 innings a turn... OK, I'll trust the front office but it's May and one of those 4 trusted members of the bullpen is in Rochester. 

 

So yeah... Data incomplete... I'm watching to see what happens after whatever happens next. 

I think deployment can mitigate the lack of depth for a time; but come playoffs I don't even think deployment, how ever well done, can mask lack of talent. 

[Riverbrian]

 

I count a long man, an opener, two firemen/OOGYs, two holders/closers, and two low-leverage, without looking at which games each appears in, or hold/save stats. That's eight. The unsustainable looks like the holder/closers with appearances in half of the games, not the opener and long man with larger inning loads. We shall see what the second half brings. But they have definitely decided that sharp pitchers matter more than spelled hitters, and I don't see much reason to argue that.

 

Now to go hunting for those roles in the twins bullpen...

 

I think deployment can mitigate the lack of depth for a time; but come playoffs I don't even think deployment, how ever well done, can mask lack of talent. 

 

Maybe but the Brewers came darn close last year. 

 

With the Rays... First the obvious. 

 

Morton, Snell and Glasnow are clearly starters in the traditional sense but... notice that they all average less then 6 innings per start. There have been some injuries but they sure seem to be trying to limit the number of innings the starters are throwing. These guys are not struggling at all so they don't require a quick hook. 

 

2nd... Castillo, Alverado and Pagan are the late inning crew. No designated closer but they work in short stints. Kolerek and Roe appear to be arms a couple more arms that they use in short stints in the middle innings. 

 

3rd... Stanek appears to be the preferred opener. 18 Games - 12 Games Starter - 24 innings pitched. 

 

4th... Chirnos and Beeks appear to be the guys out of the pen that they are lengthening out to handle more innings and it looks like they will use Wood and Stadler for longer stints out of the bullpen as well. 

 

12 to 13 pitchers and they have rewritten deployment of their limited resources.  

 

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

 

 

2nd... Castillo, Alverado and Pagan are the late inning crew. No designated closer but they work in short stints. 

 

 

 

You are right, I mis-cast Pagan due to low G. He must have been injured at some point. So, if they each see an inning in half the games, is that a sustainable load? The Molitor Twins had a reliever break down each year under a similar load, IIRC.

 

I wonder if some forward-thinking team is going to start making 2-inning relief stints a regular occurrence. That would allow more rest days, without often exposing a reliever to a second PA by the same batter. Anyone have a feel/data for which is more burdensome for a pitcher - more appearances, or more long appearances? It would seem that the traditional use of starting pitching argues that appearances is more of a worry than innings.

[Riverbrian]

 

You are right, I mis-cast Pagan due to low G. He must have been injured at some point. So, if they each see an inning in half the games, is that a sustainable load? The Molitor Twins had a reliever break down each year under a similar load, IIRC.

 

I wonder if some forward-thinking team is going to start making 2-inning relief stints a regular occurrence. That would allow more rest days, without often exposing a reliever to a second PA by the same batter. Anyone have a feel/data for which is more burdensome for a pitcher - more appearances, or more long appearances? It would seem that the traditional use of starting pitching argues that appearances is more of a worry than innings.

 

We don't know why our relievers broke down. It's a theory based upon them leading the league in appearances. I'm not dismissing the theory but am far from saying that is the reason.

 

I think they led the league in appearances because they avoided the D.L. and Molitor ate two bullpen spots by not turning to Magill once he assigned him LR and refusing to throw Busenitz and Curtiss when they were up. Just not sure it caused the breakdowns. 

 

As for "will some forward thinking team start making two innings stints a regular occurrence".  I absolutely pray that happens and I hope it is my Twins that lead the way. Not just two but three innings from time to time. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think deployment can mitigate the lack of depth for a time; but come playoffs I don't even think deployment, how ever well done, can mask lack of talent. 

 

In general that's true. If Cleveland continues to falter, the Twins will be able to prepare more for the playoffs than the regular season come the trade deadline.

 

That said, one big thing about the playoffs is that there's more off time. There's lots of days off between games, so being able to rely on 3 or 4 arms in the pen can be done... I'm not saying they shouldn't go out and get another arm... just saying that the playoffs do bring some of their own benefits.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I had predicted 94 wins this year for the Twins in a previous post before the season began. You can look it up. I stand by that..

[Linus]

We don't know why our relievers broke down. It's a theory based upon them leading the league in appearances. I'm not dismissing the theory but am far from saying that is the reason.

 

I think they led the league in appearances because they avoided the D.L. and Molitor ate two bullpen spots by not turning to Magill once he assigned him LR and refusing to throw Busenitz and Curtiss when they were up. Just not sure it caused the breakdowns.

 

As for "will some forward thinking team start making two innings stints a regular occurrence". I absolutely pray that happens and I hope it is my Twins that lead the way. Not just two but three innings from time to time.

Yup. Hader just pitched 3 innings for the Brewers after pitching last night. Taylor Rogers needs to be used like this

[Riverbrian]

 

Yup. Hader just pitched 3 innings for the Brewers after pitching last night. Taylor Rogers needs to be used like this

 

Agreed

 

I don't care about assigned roles. I don't care if we have a designated closer. I'm totally comfortable with the current bullpen not having an assigned closer. Ultimately... I want 7 or 8 guys in the pen that the manager would feel comfortable using in the 9th to protect a 2 or 3 run lead. 

 

But... If I were to assign a role in the bullpen... The role I would assign would be called a separator. 

 

The bullpen separators are your three best lights out guys. They enter the game any time the manager turns to the bullpen and the game is tight... either tied or 1 run difference.  Their specific job is to shut the other team down long enough for the offense to separate from the other team on the scoreboard. 

 

For example the score is 3-3 in the 6th inning... Bring in the separator. Let him pitch the 6th. Plus the 7th and 8th if necessary... basically however long it takes for the offense to tack on a couple of runs to create some separation and I'd cap it at 3 innings.

 

If your team grabs a lead of two or more in the 7th... his work is done after 1 inning and he is possibly available tomorrow. If he throws 3 because separation doesn't happen. You give him a couple days rest while you utilize one of the other two separators. 

 

If I had Edwin Diaz for example... he wouldn't be dedicated closer for me... He would be separator as described above. 

 

And of course... if the separation needs to happen in the 9th... Well... Then he is a closer on that day. 

 

Rogers would fit that mold. 

 

 

[hackerboy]

The "issues" with the bullpen and Craig Kimbral yes/no would not be a topic of discussion if they had kept Ryan Pressley. 

 

Pressley is EXACTLY who they need to solidify the BP. The prospects they got for him will not help the Twins win a third World Series this year. Pressley could have. 

[jkcarew]

Offense is better...I think sustainably better...than I thought it would be. Bullpen is what I thought it would be...starting pitching has been a bit better than I thought it would be. I feel like it's more likely that the Twins win the division (not just because of Cleveland's injuries). I don't think it's much more likely that the Twins would do serious damage in the playoffs...even with a shored up bullpen. The starting pitching, while Odorizzi and Perez are over-performing, the top of the rotation does not match up to the top of rotations for Yankees, Houston...and Boston will be there by the end of the year, as well. But, this team could win a lot of regular season games, which would be a step, and very fun.