Done with the wrong! What has the FO done right? And what do they need to do now?

[DocBauer]

I'm sorry, but I've tried to read each and every single 12 page post about everything done wrong with the Twins FO thus far. And I've just gotten frustrated! As frustrated with EVERYONE who is a fan of our favorite team. But I feel we've gone beyond disappointment for a lost season to pure vitriol!

 

I am defending NOBODY. Nor am I blaming ANYONE!

 

With a long off season ahead us, and dozens of posts regarding trades and potential FA moves, I'm simply offering up a thread as to what has been done RIGHT, and what NEEDS to be done going forward.

 

RIGHT:

 

A pair of drafts that look really, really good on early returns. This should not be dismissed as "low minor" hypberoly. Prospects and depth come from this place.

 

The trading of FA and international money. When you have pending FA on your roster that don't fit, or you unsure if they fit, and you unsure if you can re-sign them, they are often traded for prospects. I am no expert to portend how good said acquired prospects will turn out to be sure. But something for nothing is a good thing, yes? And the Twins couldnt sign Ohtani so they traded international money for a couple prospects. Bad idea? Really?

 

Despite a history of not spending money, this new FO was VERY aggressive in trying to build the 2017 version of the Twins. Damned if you do....damned if you don't. It didn't work out...PERIOD. so we traded away those players, and Pressly, for prospects. But hasn't there also been much consternation over the past few years for NOT being willing to spend and NOT being willing to trade someone when their value was high?

 

Dumpster diving is a term I greatly dislike. But in context, if done right, it can pay dividends. Guys like Motter, and Field and others are the kind of guys TR used to sign before the season began. Some amounted to nothing. Some turned out to be at least solid contributors. The solid Adrianza and surprising Austudillo would be examples of recent dumpster diving that seem to be worth it. Same with Magill, at least until recently when the shine wore off.

 

WRONG:

 

The entire Buxton saga is old, and wrong. None of us knows the behind the scenes conversation. An immense talent, there is nothing inherently wrong with holding his rights for an extra season. It's even legal and within the boundaries of the CBA. But at least publicly, it was handled poorly. Except for glimpses, he has been injured and performed poorly. How much of that is on him vs injury and being asked to try to play through injury? And how could it have been handled differently to allow him to maybe work with Rowson at the ML level? Or was a healthy re-set needed, maybe with some instructional league time? Again, poorly handled IMO.

 

This is a major mess that needs to be addressed and resolved. Despite, IMO, a lack of for-sight from the FO in regard to Sano, they at least seemed determined and aggressive in their resolve for a step-back to fix things. I'm not so sure I've seen this with Buxton. At least not publicly.

 

NOT building a competent AAA roster with at least a few guys who could compete at the ML level. Wilson and Pettit were it?

 

Falling in love for 2 years now with rule 5. Why? Outsmarting yourself?

 

Holding on too much to experienced "leadership" players like Belisle at the risk of additional game time experience for young players who have a chance.

 

Austudillo has practically lucked in to a chance he should be retained, at least on a strong AAA deal.

 

Still less than 2 years on the job, really, we've seen a lot of good things from the FO. And i still believe 2019 is the true start of defining them and their approach to winning, and longevity of being winning and being competitive.

 

What do they need to do moving forward?

[Mike Sixel]

Trading guys not part of the future for lottery picks. Castro. Trying to fix the bullpen this off season.

 

It's hard to give them much credit for picking first overall and getting a great prospect, at least for me.

 

Next?

They need another very good starting pitcher, a middle infielder, and a player that can play third, and first, and hit.

[strumdatjaguar]

Biggest DONE RIGHT?   Not signing Yu Darvish.

Biggest DONE WRONG? 2018 season free agent signings (LoMO, Lance Lynn especially). 

[MN_ExPat]

Well said Doc.   Thank you for trying to find something positive.

[akmanak]

I think people just need to give the FO a little more time. This offseason will really gauge what they can accomplish.

[ashbury]

It's hard to give them much credit for picking first overall and getting a great prospect, at least for me.

After the first round, it's almost like if they had won the World Series and were picking last. So, aside from Royce Lewis as an extra prize, how do you like their 2017 draft, say versus the Cubs', whom they picked right after?

[Ben Noble]

So much of how you view this front office at this point will depend on how you weight process vs results. I've been a fan of their process, for the most part, so far.

[dbminn]

So far so good:

• The FO had a plan and got the players they wanted at the top of the 2017 draft. 
• They've beefed up analytics and player development staff.
• Yunior Severino seems to be a good investment.
• At least a couple of minor leaguers acquired in deadline trades have potential.

The biggest decisions are in front of them:

• There will have budget flexibility moving forward. How they manage the dollars will be huge. Free agents and/or extensions are both possibilities. 
• Can Sano and Buxton be both healthy and competitive in 2019? If not, will the FO trade players like Gibson, Odo, or even an OF (Rosario)? Will they trade preseason or wait and see?
• There is a lot of minor league depth in the "could be a contributor" category. Can they package some of these players to get a MLB player or two?
• IMO, the biggest issue moving forward is player development. Will we see well-prepared players (especially pitchers) in the next few years? 

[Loosey]

I'm giving the front office the benefit of the doubt still.  Has it worked out this year in terms of wins an losses? No.  But compared the prior regime they took action.  I don't know of Terry Ryan would have pulled the trigger on a Dozier trade or Escobar trade.  The returns weren't anything mind blowing, so obviously there was no instant winner.  This front office didn't wait too long, took action and made a decision.  That in and of itself is something we weren't used to.  I like that.

[mazeville]

What I generally like is their decisiveness. They made some interesting deals over the offseason to improve the club. They didn't work out, for one reason or another. But you have to give them credit for recognizing the market, waiting it out, and getting a bunch of guys on cheaper-than-expected deals.

 

And then when the team was clearly out of contention, the FO made a bunch of trades to improve the farm system.

 

I don't like the Buxton saga one bit and it looks awfully bad. And I would prefer the team stop giving crucial reliever innings to older players at this point. But I remain relatively bullish on this front office. Another year like this, though, and I might change my mind. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the deserve the benefit of the doubt for another year or two. It takes time to change a culture of an organization. You have to keep what is done right while correcting what is done wrong.

 

I like that their last two drafts have both looked good.

 

I liked that they went out and spent money to augement a team that made game 163 last season. 

 

I liked that they were decisive in selling many of those extra pickups and picked up a number of possiblities down the road.

 

I like that they've really beefed up their analytics piece. 

 

I'm not sure I was a fan of the Molitor extension. 

 

This year's results were certainly not as expected, but I do think there's merit in some reasonable expectations there. Between Sano, Polanco, Castro, Buxton, and Santana, that's a lot of core guys that were expected to contribute that didn't. The question is what to expect going forward. I doubt Santana is back, but making sure we get the good Sano, Polanco, and Buxton come 2019 is the difference between another season like this and what we were expecting at the start of the season. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm giving the front office the benefit of the doubt still.  Has it worked out this year in terms of wins an losses? No.  But compared the prior regime they took action.  I don't know of Terry Ryan would have pulled the trigger on a Dozier trade or Escobar trade.  The returns weren't anything mind blowing, so obviously there was no instant winner.  This front office didn't wait too long, took action and made a decision.  That in and of itself is something we weren't used to.  I like that.

The prior regime traded vets at the deadline all the the time. That's how we got Escobar in the first place. The new FO has yet to show that they can make a trade even that good. 

 

I haven't been impressed with the FO's ability to gauge or measure internal talent. The players we lost seemed better than the players we've gained. 

 

I think this is a big off-season for us and we'll certainly know more. If Molitor's back, I'm calling for Levine's head. If they don't have a good plan for Sano and Buxton, I'm calling for both their heads. 

 

I hope the team moves Kepler to help in other areas since Kiriloff can replace him fairly soon.

[MABB1959]

Seems we got the better end of the Dozier trade but how did they not know he was injured all year?

[Doomtints]

I think they did the best they could have done last offseason, but they neglected to work on Sano and Buxton. This is probably on Molitor overall, but the front office needs to be more involved.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The prior regime traded vets at the deadline all the the time. 

 

When I think Terry Ryan, I know I think "Active Trade Deadline"

[Mr. Brooks]

Seems we got the better end of the Dozier trade but how did they not know he was injured all year?

MRI showed no damage, so I don't think it's really an "injury" in that sense. Just soreness, which every player in the league has by May 1st.

Note that he never went on the DL, or missed consecutive games.

[nicksaviking]

 

So much of how you view this front office at this point will depend on how you weight process vs results. I've been a fan of their process, for the most part, so far.

 

I just like that there is a thread that acknowledges we should evaluate the parts, not the whole. Some things are working some things aren't; I'd like to keep the stuff that is while fixing the stuff that isn't instead of tossing everything in the trash and starting over.

[MABB1959]

MRI showed no damage, so I don't think it's really an "injury" in that sense. Just soreness, which every player in the league has by May 1st.

Note that he never went on the DL, or missed consecutive games.

[MABB1959]

I read injured. But regardless something was wrong. How does a “veteran” get that bad over one winter.

[Thrylos]

 

Seems we got the better end of the Dozier trade but how did they not know he was injured all year?

 

How do you know that he was injured all year? 

Because he said so to hold on to some perceived value and not sign a minor league contract next season?

[Danchat]

 

MRI showed no damage, so I don't think it's really an "injury" in that sense. Just soreness, which every player in the league has by May 1st.
Note that he never went on the DL, or missed consecutive games.

Sounds like it was a minor injury, and you know what they say, "everyone's hurt at this time of the year".

[gman]

Good. The FO stated that they intended to build a long term perennially contending team. To constantly get good players out of the pipeline you have to shove good players in, or at least talented and hope several years later the results are there. To this end, not much was added in 2018 in terms of newly developed talent. But then the piepline was pretty empty at the upper levels. I don't expect the contending part of this to start taking place in 2019.

 

Under the it's not my fault category. The core. Rosario and Berrios have been good this year. Not much else.

MOY. I think this was a case of being between a rock and a hard place. I don't think you can let go of the current year MOY, so they were stuck with extending Moliter. I suspect they were intending to let Moliter go. My memory might be fuzzy, but it seemed like in Juy of 2017 that Moliter wouldn't make it to the end of the year. Without those 5 weeks of good baseball in 2017, the year would have looked a lot like 2018.

 

Bad - The core of the team.Somehow the organization needs to have off season development programs in place to get the core to be as good and healthy as we hope they can be.

Hope, as in relying too much on it without having individual history to support it.

[rv78]

I've seen 1 player in the last 2 seasons that the dynamic duo has acquired that actually looks like he might amount to something. Jake Cave. Everyone else has either flopped, hasn't impressed me much or is a prospect. Looking back, when Castro was their first BIG acquisition it should have been glaringly obvious that we can't expect too much from them. For those of you that think a player like Machado will ever come to a team like the Twins, you are living in a fantasy world. 

[Riverbrian]

 

The prior regime traded vets at the deadline all the the time. That's how we got Escobar in the first place. The new FO has yet to show that they can make a trade even that good. 

 

 

July and August Trade Acquisitions by Year

 

2018: (14) Ernie De La Trinidad, Jhoan Duran, Gabriel Maciel, Jorge Alcala, Gilberto Celestino, Ryan Costello, Chase De Jong, Luis Rijo, Tyler Austin, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, Logan Forsythe, Dakota Chalmers and Chris Gimenez. 

 

2017: (6) Jaime Garcia, Anthony Recker, Gabriel Moya, Dietrich Enns, Zach Littell, Tyler Watson

 

2016: (4) Adalberto Mejia, Pat Light, Alan Busenitz, Hector Santiago. 

 

2015: (2) Kevin Jepsen, Neil Cotts

 

2014: (3) Stephen Pryor, Tommy Milone, Jason Adam. 

 

2013: (3)Miguel Salburan, Alex Presley, Duke Welker. 

 

2012: (3) Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Hernandez, Jeremias Pineda. 

[gunnarthor]

 

July and August Trade Acquisitions by Year

 

2018: (14) Ernie De La Trinidad, Jhoan Duran, Gabriel Maciel, Jorge Alcala, Gilberto Celestino, Ryan Costello, Chase De Jong, Luis Rijo, Tyler Austin, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, Logan Forsythe, Dakota Chalmers and Chris Gimenez. 

 

2017: (6) Jaime Garcia, Anthony Recker, Gabriel Moya, Dietrich Enns, Zach Littell, Tyler Watson

 

2016: (4) Adalberto Mejia, Pat Light, Alan Busenitz, Hector Santiago. 

 

2015: (2) Kevin Jepsen, Neil Cotts

 

2014: (3) Stephen Pryor, Tommy Milone, Jason Adam. 

 

2013: (3)Miguel Salburan, Alex Presley, Duke Welker. 

 

2012: (3) Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Hernandez, Jeremias Pineda. 

And? Twins, no matter who was the GM, made lots of July trades (not sure why we're limiting it to that period but whatever). It's too early to say the Twins current FO has made a trade as good as the Liriano trade, for instance. It's pretty safe to say that the 2017 trades won't make it. Not sure if the quantity over quality trades will work. We'll see.

[DocBauer]

Agreed. This is the year we find out if they can maneuver well in an off season. We have 2/3 of a competitive team. We need three of the hardest pieces to find - a #1 or #2 starter (depending on which role you think Berrios can play), a closer and a productive SS (Polanco belongs at 2B).  Not an exciiting FA list - Corbin, Kuechel, K Herrera (would love him), Cody Allen, Brach, Britton, Turner, Iglesias and that's about it if you assume we can't get Machado.  Trades? Might be time to trade some of the alleged future pitching surplus for pitching help today.  

 

Should/could be a big offseason coming. I hope so.

 

I've heard Corbin mentioned a couple of times. I admit I don't know anything about him. So, if course, I looked him up. Really only had one bad season, 2016. Good SO numbers, solid but not great BB/K rate until this season. Seems to have a propensity for the HR ball. But 29, OH, some solid numbers overall. Could this be a LH version of Gibson maturing late?

 

So how about him, Herrera, Escobar, and a trade or FA signing for SS with Polanco moving to 2B?

 

I know this mostly about what's been good so far and what to work on, but those moves qualify as "what to work on" I think.

[DocBauer]

Adding some additional thoughts:

 

A] How about someone to work with Sano in the off season to continue his re-set. Not just conditioning and diet, but approach and just getting his mind right after a bad and trying year?

 

B] What about special assistant Hunter spending a bunch of time with Buxton doing much of the same? He knows baseball! He knows what it's like to flail/fail and then succeed. He also knows defense, and considering his long career, how to preserve his body.

[gil4]

 

 

Biggest DONE WRONG? 2018 season free agent signings (LoMO, Lance Lynn especially). 

I have a hard time being too critical since I liked the signings at the time. I like the Lynn signing a bit less because I thought that they had a better negotiating position with him and should have held out for either 2 years at $12M per or given less on the one year.  

Their biggest done wrong I would have done wronger. (Yeah, I know that's not a word.)

[gunnarthor]

 

I have a hard time being too critical since I liked the signings at the time. I like the Lynn signing a bit less because I thought that they had a better negotiating position with him and should have held out for either 2 years at $12M per or given less on the one year.  

Their biggest done wrong I would have done wronger. (Yeah, I know that's not a word.)

This is how I feel. I liked a lot of their moves at the time. But they haven't worked. I'm not ready to give up but we do need results. 

 

And completely agree on Molitor. A legitimate strike against the FO.

[blindeke]

 

Biggest DONE RIGHT?   Not signing Yu Darvish.

Biggest DONE WRONG? 2018 season free agent signings (LoMO, Lance Lynn especially). 

 

But all the Twins' FAs were 1 or 2 year deals, are (mostly) gone now, or were traded for something. That mistake has very low stakes, and is not on par with Darvish, which will be on the Cubs books for 5 more years.