Done with the wrong! What has the FO done right? And what do they need to do now?

[ashbury]

Moderator's note: Several posts that amounted to bickering have been removed.

[Riverbrian]

 

And? Twins, no matter who was the GM, made lots of July trades (not sure why we're limiting it to that period but whatever). It's too early to say the Twins current FO has made a trade as good as the Liriano trade, for instance. It's pretty safe to say that the 2017 trades won't make it. Not sure if the quantity over quality trades will work. We'll see.

 

I did quote the first paragraph, because it shocked me a little. I wasn't trying to offend but I was posting the actual numbers just to show the actual totals and I did so with no opinion attached but of course... I obviously had an opinion. With that said... I am making no claim that any trade made by our front office this year will pan out down the road until they actually do or don't pan out down the road. 

 

It is my opinion that we have never had a July/August trade deadline like this year... ever and quantity is a more realistic expectation. The days of Gleyber Torres for a rental are gone in my opinion. The Dodgers got a decently rated pickup in Yusniel Diaz for Machado but we had nobody to trade in that ball park and were able to acquire some guys with potential who can be poured into the filter and see if they develop into something and this (on paper) should be better than getting nothing for an expiring contract. 

 

It is my opinion that Terry Ryan was one of the most infrequent traders in MLB and I would even go as far to say that he kinda stood still. I stopped on 2012 because that is when his the previous regime began. 

 

The other shocking part of the first paragraph was the Liriano/Escobar trade as an example but, you did clarify a little in your response back to me.

 

You are correct that it is way too early to say if this front office has made a trade as good as the Liriano/Escobar deal but I was originally shocked by it because the following year in 2013... Not many of us would have claimed it was a good deal when Escobar had a .623 OPS and Liriano was in Pittsburgh tossing a 3.02 ERA, 16-8 Record with 9.1 K's per 9. You had to give the Escobar/Liriano time to tilt in our favor... So I do agree with you... you got to give these deals time. 

 

Anyway... I like the acquisitions of 14 new players to put into the filter. Now... I'll wait for the filter to produce something. 

[Han Joelo]

The Good:  Beginning the process of unhitching the wagon from the Sano/Buxton star.

The Bad:  The new stars they are hitching the wagon to are in A ball.  But good for them in finding them.

The Ugly: Johnny Field soaking up playing time right now.  And others.  Not saying it is bad-ugly (its definitely not ugly-good) but it is ugly.

[DocBauer]

Really like these ideas. Herrera to close, Corbin to head the rotaion, Escobar to form a 1B/DH/3B group with Sano, Austin, and Mauer if he comes back, and Iglesias at SS or a trade for Starlin Castro to play 2B leaving Polanco at SS.  That would be a dream off season.

 

Sat down and looked at these ideas some more tonight. And when I did, I came to two conclusions:

 

1] I really, really like our ideas for 2019. They make so much sense, I'm either scared my intelligence factor is rising, or yours is falling.

 

2] I really wish the FO would take a few weeks off this November and let you and I and Brian run things during their absence. Brian has to be included because he also embraces roster depth and flexibility, as well as providing comedy relief during the stressful negotiating. (Ears burning Brian?)

 

On a serious note, I found myself frustrated this evening while trying to figure out 2019 payroll. The Twins had an adjusted payroll this season of $115.5M best I can figure. But they have a comitted 2019 payroll of only $38.5M, which may or may not include Santana's buyout and Hughes, but remains grossly inaccurate as the bulk of the team is young, will be retained with some kind of raises and "brought back", arbitration or settlement for guys like Gibson, etc.

 

I really hope someone can offer up a more complete and realistic number.

 

Regardless, if we assume Mauer does hang it up, his salary, Santana, the Dozier/Forsythe wash, Morisson, Lynn, Rodney and Duke amounts to roughly $65M off the books. (Give or take a couple M for buyouts and Hughes.) There will be raises, of course, but not enough to blow payroll up. There could be extensions, but again, not enough to ruin things payroll wise. And even if Gibson were to sign an extension, he would be about $8-9M. Again, not a killer. Even if we shrink our payroll cuts to as low as $50M, (being conservative), with raises, extensions, Gibson, etc, we should still have a good $50M to play with. Yes? Please correct me if I'm in error.

 

I don't believe in building a team through FA. I think that approach has largely proven to be a poor end game. But using it to supplement a team is a very useful and viable source. And the Twins have a nucleus in place to do so.

 

So what if we made the proposed moves? (Assuming for a moment that what we saw last season holds true, and FA contracts don't suddenly escalate again)

 

Iglesias at SS: $6.275M 2018/ $8M for 2019? (2-3 yr deal)

Escobar as super utility: $4.850M 2018/ $8M for 2019? (2-3 yr deal)

Herrera as closer/SU: $7.938M 2018/ $8.5M for 2019 (2-3 yr deal)

Corbin as SP: $7.5M 2018/ $14M for 2019 (3-4 yr deal)

 

Think I'm roughly accurate. Am I low or high here or there? That's still less than $40M to add pieces that really fit with thjs team, still allows mkre than enough payroll to keep the team intact, allows for raises and a couple extensions.

 

Am I crazy?

[Riverbrian]

 

2] I really wish the FO would take a few weeks off this November and let you and I and Brian run things during their absence. Brian has to be included because he also embraces roster depth and flexibility, as well as providing comedy relief during the stressful negotiating. (Ears burning Brian?)


 

[laloesch]

 

Biggest DONE RIGHT?   Not signing Yu Darvish.

Biggest DONE WRONG? 2018 season free agent signings (LoMO, Lance Lynn especially). 

 

we should thank our lucky stars we didn't land Darvish.  What a COLOSSAL failure that has been for the Cubs so far. WAY too much money.

[laloesch]

My Off-season priorities 

 

1. Sign Rosario and Gibson to extensions first and foremost. 

 

2. Talk to Escobar's agent and see if he'd be willing to return to the Twins on a free agent deal (assuming it's reasonable).  He can start at short or rotate around most of the infield in a utility role which is quite valuable.

 

3. Sit down with Mauer and discuss his status and what his terms would be on a one or two year deal (assuming he wants to keep playing).  If not plan B.  Austin, Kepler, Sano, a free agent?  

 

4. Figure out the plan for the bullpen for next season, be it free agents or shuffling of talent up from the farm. Why was Jake Reed never called up this season? He had ANOTHER good year for Rochester and has the heat to make it at the major league level.  

 

5. Starting pitching.  I think this will be the least of their problems next offseason heading into 2019 even with the likely departure of Santana. Odorizzi, Berrios, Romero, Gibson and a whole slew of guys can be slotted for that fifth spot (Stewart, Pineda, Gonsalves, May, Littell).  

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

They took a surprise contender from last season, and added starting pitching in Odorizzi and Lynn, bullpen depth in Reed, Duke, and Rodney. They took a team with over 200 home runs and added a guy fresh off a 38 home run season.

 

At the time I don't recall anybody complaining, except those who wanted Darvish and Ohtani(who in the Twins' defense they were in play for).

 

The FO addressed glaring weaknesses on a competitive team, not much more to ask for.

 

But the whole plan was undercut: I don't recall anyone expecting Santana, Dozier, Buxton, and Sano would all flop big-time, Polanco would get busted for PEDs, and Castro would miss the season.

 

Hindsight is a funny thing.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

At the time I don't recall anybody complaining,

Yes, people "complained"...or at least wondered how the moves made sense.

 

Just an odd, forgettable offseason, not much happening until a flurry of short term signings at the end, but, trust the process, I guess.

[gunnarthor]

For those who are trying to figure out payroll for next season, Cots is probably the best source.

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

 

We have about 31m committed for salary but that's not counting arb raises. Odorizzi, Gibson and Adrianza are Arb 3, May and Grossman are Arb 2 and Rosario, Sano, Kepler and Rogers are Arb 1. Buxton might file a grievance to get there but for now he's probably not. For the rest, league minimum is roughly 550k, I believe. 

 

Guys like Adrianza and Grossman are replaceable and the others shouldn't break the bank. Probably less than 25m for all of them? 

[Doomtints]

 

2] I really wish the FO would take a few weeks off this November

 

Oh don't worry, they will be taking plenty of time off.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

I've said this before, but I feel that this upcoming offseason is the reason why this new FO was hired. Everything that they have done up to now is simply prelude to the main event. They have just been setting the table to put their imprint on this team, and the opportunity to do that begins now. They have a lot of work to do as they have so few players under contract for next season, and they have the traditional constraints put on them by ownership. But the 2019 team should be considered their team much moreso than either of the past two seasons’ teams. I am waiting to judge their abilities until I see what happens between now and April 2019.  I am not saying they will be successful but it will be very interesting for long-term Twins fans to see how they go about their business.

[Mike Sixel]

Even that seems a bit low on Corbin for me.....I think he's in the 15-20 range, but I could be off....

[Riverbrian]

 

For those who are trying to figure out payroll for next season, Cots is probably the best source.

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

 

We have about 31m committed for salary but that's not counting arb raises. Odorizzi, Gibson and Adrianza are Arb 3, May and Grossman are Arb 2 and Rosario, Sano, Kepler and Rogers are Arb 1. Buxton might file a grievance to get there but for now he's probably not. For the rest, league minimum is roughly 550k, I believe. 

 

Guys like Adrianza and Grossman are replaceable and the others shouldn't break the bank. Probably less than 25m for all of them? 

 

Buxton will be Arb Eligible as a Super-Two. He may not get what he was hoping though based on his production. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Buxton will be Arb Eligible as a Super-Two. He may not get what he was hoping though based on his production. 

Ahh, thank you for the clarification.

[Blake]

 

I did quote the first paragraph, because it shocked me a little. I wasn't trying to offend but I was posting the actual numbers just to show the actual totals and I did so with no opinion attached but of course... I obviously had an opinion. With that said... I am making no claim that any trade made by our front office this year will pan out down the road until they actually do or don't pan out down the road. 

 

It is my opinion that we have never had a July/August trade deadline like this year... ever and quantity is a more realistic expectation. The days of Gleyber Torres for a rental are gone in my opinion. The Dodgers got a decently rated pickup in Yusniel Diaz for Machado but we had nobody to trade in that ball park and were able to acquire some guys with potential who can be poured into the filter and see if they develop into something and this (on paper) should be better than getting nothing for an expiring contract. 

 

It is my opinion that Terry Ryan was one of the most infrequent traders in MLB and I would even go as far to say that he kinda stood still. I stopped on 2012 because that is when his the previous regime began. 

 

The other shocking part of the first paragraph was the Liriano/Escobar trade as an example but, you did clarify a little in your response back to me.

 

You are correct that it is way too early to say if this front office has made a trade as good as the Liriano/Escobar deal but I was originally shocked by it because the following year in 2013... Not many of us would have claimed it was a good deal when Escobar had a .623 OPS and Liriano was in Pittsburgh tossing a 3.02 ERA, 16-8 Record with 9.1 K's per 9. You had to give the Escobar/Liriano time to tilt in our favor... So I do agree with you... you got to give these deals time. 

 

Anyway... I like the acquisitions of 14 new players to put into the filter. Now... I'll wait for the filter to produce something. 

Yep, there is something to be said about filling the pipeline with quantity. 14 players is a pretty good haul. May not produce any superstars but every single team needs players who do their job on a consistent basis.

[mlhouse]

1.  Although I think they got overcute in the 2017 draft, they did a good job of selecting talents.  By being "overcute", if they really wanted Blayne Enlow they should have just drafted him in the 2nd round and took the risk that Leach would be available at the top of the 3rd, not the other way way around.

 

2.  Drafting later in the rounds in 2018, I think they did a good job with their selections although I think players like Jeffers and Williams might have looked better than they are becaue they were not playing against high enough level competition.  This is a common theme with Twins prospects (and one of the reasons why our lower level farm teams are almost always succesful).  

 

3.  They did suck it up and deal the veterans that were not going to be part of the Twins future at the deadline.  In a couple of deals they got a reasonable return, but the real question is if they would have committed to rebuilding from the start and moved these players would the return have been even greater?

[Mr. Brooks]

They took a surprise contender from last season, and added starting pitching in Odorizzi and Lynn, bullpen depth in Reed, Duke, and Rodney. They took a team with over 200 home runs and added a guy fresh off a 38 home run season.

 

At the time I don't recall anybody complaining, except those who wanted Darvish and Ohtani(who in the Twins' defense they were in play for).

 

The FO addressed glaring weaknesses on a competitive team, not much more to ask for.

 

But the whole plan was undercut: I don't recall anyone expecting Santana, Dozier, Buxton, and Sano would all flop big-time, Polanco would get busted for PEDs, and Castro would miss the season.

 

Hindsight is a funny thing.

Not to toot my own horn, but you brought it up. I predicted Santana was done as soon as the finger surgery was announced.

But, I didn't expect the others to flop.

[yarnivek1972]

we should thank our lucky stars we didn't land Darvish. What a COLOSSAL failure that has been for the Cubs so far. WAY too much money.

So colossal they have a 2 1/2 game division lead.

 

And that’s the difference between a $130 mil payroll team and a $180 mil payroll team. You can afford to take bigger risks and if a guy blows up you still have flexibility to field a contender.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So colossal they have a 2 1/2 game division lead.

 

And that’s the difference between a $130 mil payroll team and a $180 mil payroll team. You can afford to take bigger risks and if a guy blows up you still have flexibility to field a contender.

FWIW, I read that the Cubs are already getting insurance money on Darvish too.

 

Won't help with the luxury tax hit, of course.

[Mr. Brooks]

FWIW, I read that the Cubs are already getting insurance money on Darvish too.

 

Won't help with the luxury tax hit, of course.

Do you have a link for that? Or remember where you heard it?

I've always been under the impression that insurance never kicks in until the player has missed an entire season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Do you have a link for that? Or remember where you heard it?

I've always been under the impression that insurance never kicks in until the player has missed an entire season.

I'll try to find it, but insurance can kick in at all sorts of levels depending on the policy. For example, the Twins collected insurance when Nolasco missed time, even though it was less than a full season:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/07/08/twinsights-insurance-policy-covers-twins-against-extended-absence-for-ricky-nolasco/

[Mr. Brooks]

I'll try to find it, but insurance can kick in at all sorts of levels depending on the policy. For example, the Twins collected insurance when Nolasco missed time, even though it was less than a full season:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/07/08/twinsights-insurance-policy-covers-twins-against-extended-absence-for-ricky-nolasco/

Thanks. That's a data point regarding insurance that I hadn't seen before.