Article: DET 4, MIN 2: Stewart Debuts, Bats Slump in Loss

[Nine of twelve]

 

I knew they were going to lose once I saw who was batting leadoff -- Forsythe.

 

I don't know why this organization has so much faith in a manager who can't fill out a lineup card.

Forsythe had a 9-game (now 10-game) hitting streak so I don't think batting him leadoff was a bad idea.

[108Stitches]

The most unfortunate thing about Stewart’s debut is this god awful picture you guys have posted at the top! Poor fella!

[DocBauer]

I missed the 5th inning so I can't really comment, can only read. While by no means dominate, he looked relaxed and in control the first 4 frames. I'd really like to see him get another couple of starts, especially with Mejia out, at least temporarily. What are we playing for at this point if not the future?

 

Same goes for Gonsalves.

 

At this point, do you work in a 6 man rotation? Or do you pull the plug on Santana? With roster expansion a couple weeks away, I'm not sure the answer is as easy as it appears.

[ashbury]

You have a rookie pitcher working with a rookie catcher, and there was an allusion to a post-game debriefing between the two. This is great, but I hope to goodness that the pitching coach is implicitly included in this activity, mostly keeping quiet but offering a tidbit or two. You can let two veterans toss their ideas back and forth on their own.

[rv78]

Agree with the comments about Adrianza messing up the play. It was an easy out at 3B or at the very least just tag the runner. 

 

As for the headline "bats slump in loss" don't you have to have HOT bats to have a slump? This team hasn't had hitting from more than 2 bats all season. The whole year has been a slump.

[slash129]

 

You have a rookie pitcher working with a rookie catcher, and there was an allusion to a post-game debriefing between the two. This is great, but I hope to goodness that the pitching coach is implicitly included in this activity, mostly keeping quiet but offering a tidbit or two. You can let two veterans toss their ideas back and forth on their own.

 

If Stewart gets another start, which I hope he does, he may benefit from Wilson being behind the plate. This could also benefit Garver, since he could get more input into how to call Stewart.  I know giving games to players like Wilson isn't what everyone wants at this juncture, but this may be an exception.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The comment was the third time through. Missing bats is a problem but not specific to the third time through. Missing bats and too much contact can be a problem in the first inning also so I am not sure how your reply is connected to my reply about the third time through.

That's fair, I wouldn't call it a third time problem either. More like a "sooner or later, that much contact is going to get you" problem. It just happened to get him later in this game.

 

Although if he does convert to relief, the hope would be that he can miss more bats in shorter outings.

[jokin]

 

Not surprisingly, Stewart ran in to trouble when the lineup flipped over a third time. I doubt he ever has success getting through a MLB lineup 3 times.

 

 

Yeah, let's just write him off now forever. You are guilty of severe over-analysis of a DEBUT performance. Very few achieve dominating success in their first outing. It might be more helpful to examine his career body of work and extrapolate from a myriad of data. (SHEESH)

[Doomtints]

 

Forsythe had a 9-game (now 10-game) hitting streak so I don't think batting him leadoff was a bad idea.

 

Have you ever heard of the term "regress"?

[jmlease1]

 

Stewart had a solid game. Not great, not horrible, simply average, which is honestly more than I expected from him. Noticed right away through the first three innings there wasn't a swing and miss pitch. He reminds me A LOT of Gibson a couple years ago. Decent stuff, not great, but no true swing and miss pitch - there's HOPE people. Adrianza and Austin didn't help his case there. Anybody defending Adrianza must not get out or watch a lot of baseball that's an extremely routine play (possibly even routine enough to be an out at first as well for a solid 3B). Overall I'm encouraged by Stewarts start, I hope he gets another shot or two against even better competition yet this year. 

 

This. The ability to keep the ball in the park and force guys to just keep beating the ball into the ground is a useful skill, especially in today's era of launch angle and emphasis on power hitting. Gibson changed the trajectory of his career from fringe starter/innings eater to mid-rotation backbone by making a few adjustments that added some Ks to his arsenal. Right now, Stewart looks like the old Gibson: useful, but probably not consistent enough to be a fixture. His ability to make some additional adjustments (he's still a fairly young guy, and remember Gibson didn't make this leap until his age 30 season) will determine his future.

 

A bit more help from the D and he probably gets through 6 and we think about him a little differently. He's an interesting pitcher, should compete for a spot in the back end of the rotation next year, depending on what they do in free agency. He's still got some things to work on, but it's good he's getting this chance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Right now, Stewart looks like the old Gibson: useful, but probably not consistent enough to be a fixture. His ability to make some additional adjustments (he's still a fairly young guy, and remember Gibson didn't make this leap until his age 30 season) will determine his future.

At age 23 in AAA, Gibson had a 21.7% K rate, versus a league average of 19.7%. Gibson's trouble missing bats really only cropped up when he reached MLB, and that's what took him a few years to overcome.

 

Stewart's trouble missing bats has been an issue since A-ball. Obviously I won't write him off based on one start, but it wouldn't surprise me if it becomes even more of an issue as he makes the jump to MLB.

 

But with Mejia out, and Erv's lack of a future here, there is opportunity for him to log some MLB innings this year and find out.

 

(Edit to add: Gibson also had some durability that was able to sustain him during that long adjustment process in MLB. College draftee, obviously, but he posted 152 innings in his first pro year, and 152 again in his first full year back after TJ surgery even with an early shutdown. Stewart has yet to reach that mark, and he's in his 5th full pro season with no surgeries.)

Edited August 13, 2018 by spycake

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

At age 23 in AAA, Gibson had a 21.7% K rate, versus a league average of 19.7%. Gibson's trouble missing bats really only cropped up when he reached MLB, and that's what took him a few years to overcome.

 

Stewart's trouble missing bats has been an issue since A-ball. Obviously I won't write him off based on one start, but it wouldn't surprise me if it becomes even more of an issue as he makes the jump to MLB.

 

But with Mejia out, and Erv's lack of a future here, there is opportunity for him to log some MLB innings this year and find out.

 

(Edit to add: Gibson also had some durability that was able to sustain him during that long adjustment process in MLB. College draftee, obviously, but he posted 152 innings in his first pro year, and 152 again in his first full year back after TJ surgery even with an early shutdown. Stewart has yet to reach that mark, and he's in his 5th full pro season with no surgeries.)

Agreed. Stewart should be in the rotation until the end of the season but I don't hold out much hope for him being an effective starter (or even reliever, really).

 

But he showed flashes of competence in MiLB this season after going unclaimed in the Rule V draft. The front office needs as much face time with him as possible against MLB hitting to find out if he's worthy of a 25-man spot in 2019 or whether he should just be jettisoned and replaced with a younger, higher upside arm.

[westvanson]

Wait second... Are we talking about the Kohl Stewart the Twins drafted 4th overall? The guy they paid a $4.544 million signing bonus to? If so, why is everyone so joyful that he is turning out to be an average starting pitcher? And what happened to the 101mph he was throwing in high school?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wait second... Are we talking about the Kohl Stewart the Twins drafted 4th overall? The guy they paid a $4.544 million signing bonus to? If so, why is everyone so joyful that he is turning out to be an average starting pitcher? And what happened to the 101mph he was throwing in high school?

I do not recall him ever hitting triple digits. Everything I remember (and still consistent to today) puts him topping out at 94-96.

 

Though one of his early problems was a loss of velocity, sometimes inning-to-inning and even pitch-to-pitch... but I haven't heard anything about that happening in the past couple of years, which makes me believe it's likely no longer an issue.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wait second... Are we talking about the Kohl Stewart the Twins drafted 4th overall? The guy they paid a $4.544 million signing bonus to? If so, why is everyone so joyful that he is turning out to be an average starting pitcher? And what happened to the 101mph he was throwing in high school?

 

Who's joyful on this site about Stewart? I don't read that anywhere.....

 

but, given that he went unclaimed last year by every team....him showing that maybe (maybe) he will work somehow in the majors is an improvement. So, count me in the hopeful, but doubting, group.

[Vanimal46]

Wait second... Are we talking about the Kohl Stewart the Twins drafted 4th overall? The guy they paid a $4.544 million signing bonus to? If so, why is everyone so joyful that he is turning out to be an average starting pitcher? And what happened to the 101mph he was throwing in high school?

Yep, the same guy! You need to separate your expectations from when he was drafted... They should be different now with 4+ years of professional experience. He's made strides this year to get this far.

 

If you're wondering where the velocity went since HS, he was pitching once every 10 days when he was 18. So he was able to ramp it up to upper 90s and strike out HS caliber players.

 

He's had to adjust from pitching once every 10 days to 5 days and mix his selection of pitches.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agreed. Stewart should be in the rotation until the end of the season but I don't hold out much hope for him being an effective starter (or even reliever, really).

 

But he showed flashes of competence in MiLB this season after going unclaimed in the Rule V draft. The front office needs as much face time with him as possible against MLB hitting to find out if he's worthy of a 25-man spot in 2019 or whether he should just be jettisoned and replaced with a younger, higher upside arm.

 

We actually don't have too many guys who need to be added to the 40-man. I think Graterol and Alcala don't need to be added until after 2019, contrary to Roster Resource.

 

Here's the list I compiled in another thread:

 

Gordon

Wade

Wiel

Arraez

Jay

Stashak

Vasquez

 

Stewart and Reed were the only "bubble" guys I saw beyond that.

 

So I think Stewart's 40-man roster spot is safe into 2019, even if he's not deemed ready for the 25-man.

[jkcarew]

 

Wait second... Are we talking about the Kohl Stewart the Twins drafted 4th overall? The guy they paid a $4.544 million signing bonus to? If so, why is everyone so joyful that he is turning out to be an average starting pitcher? And what happened to the 101mph he was throwing in high school?

I don't think anyone has been 'joyful'...at least regarding what this means for the Twins.

 

But, I think one can be a bit joyful for the player, separating what it means for the Twins.  Wasn't Stewart's fault he was drafted 4th and offered $4 1/2 million to sign.  He could have given up...the 4.5 has been in his pocket for some time.  But, he's been a grinder.  Maybe an unlikely grinder...but a grinder nonetheless.  So, I'm happy for him.  We'll see what the future holds.

[Doomtints]

 

At age 23 in AAA, Gibson had a 21.7% K rate, versus a league average of 19.7%. Gibson's trouble missing bats really only cropped up when he reached MLB, and that's what took him a few years to overcome.

 

Stewart only has 45 innings at AAA. Gibson logged OVER 200 INNINGS at AAA before playing for the Twins.

[yarnivek1972]

Stewart only has 45 innings at AAA. Gibson logged OVER 200 INNINGS at AAA before playing for the Twins.

That Gibson has 200 IP at AAA at age 23 compared with 45 for Stewart says a lot too. It means he hasn’t been able master AA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Stewart only has 45 innings at AAA. Gibson logged OVER 200 INNINGS at AAA before playing for the Twins.

Gibson's first 47.2 innings at AAA, age 22-23, featured the same 21.7% K rate I quoted earlier (which was just his age-23 season there), versus a league average of 19.7%.

 

In Stewart's first 45.2 innings at AAA, age 22-23, his K rate is 18.0% compared to a league average of 22.0%.

 

There's no question that Gibson had a stronger baseline for missing pro bats at age 23 than Stewart.

Edited August 13, 2018 by spycake

[Doomtints]

 

That Gibson has 200 IP at AAA at age 23 compared with 45 for Stewart says a lot too. It means he hasn’t been able master AA.

 

No, it's because Gibson skipped Rookie ball and debuted at A+. The Twins were rushing him.

[Nine of twelve]

 

That Gibson has 200 IP at AAA at age 23 compared with 45 for Stewart says a lot too. It means he hasn’t been able master AA.

Gibson played 4 years in D-I college ball, whereas Stewart turned pro right after high school. That's why Gibson played very little in the low minors. Apples to oranges.

[jorgenswest]

He is young. There isn't evidence in the data that he is ready to be successful in the majors yet. He is young enough to develop one of his pitches to the point where he gets more swing and misses.

 

I would keep him on the 40 and plan to use an option him to AAA to start next year regardless of how he performs in a handful of starts.

[Nine of twelve]

 

No, it's because Gibson skipped Rookie ball and debuted at A+. The Twins were rushing him.

I don't think he was rushed. Keep in mind he had played 4 years of D-I college ball and had success in high A and AA that first summer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Gibson played 4 years in D-I college ball

Actually 3 years. Most good players like Gibson leave college after their junior season. Seniors don't have much leverage in the draft.

[jokin]

We all agree that Kohl Stewart is no Chris Sale when it comes to whiff rate. We can also all agree that Kohl Stewart will never be anything close to a Chris Sale, period. But consider the following:

 

Chris Sale leads MLB in Soft Contact @ 28 %.

Kohl Stewart had a Soft Contact rate yesterday @ 33.3%

 

Chris Sale leads AL in IFFB% @ 15.9%

Kohl Stewart IFFB% yesterday was @ 50% (AAA was 16.7%)

 

Chris Sale's GB% is @ 45.3%

Kohl Stewart GB% yesterday was @ 72% (AAA was 57.3%--- AL best is 55%)

 

Is it reasonable to infer the prospect that Stewart at age 23 can use his impressive P-2-C soft contact/ground ball tendencies with, say, developing a little more elusivity in one or more of his out pitches and become a serviceable or better SP?

 

 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by jokin

[snepp]

I'll take cheap and serviceable over won't amount to anything, all day long if it comes to that.

[Riverbrian]

 

We all agree that Kohl Stewart is no Chris Sale when it comes to whiff rate. We can also all agree that Kohl Stewart will never be anything close to a Chris Sale, period. But consider the following:

 

Chris Sale leads MLB in Soft Contact @ 28 %.

Kohl Stewart had a Soft Contact rate yesterday @ 33.3%

 

Chris Sale leads AL in IFFB% @ 15.9%

Kohl Stewart IFFB% yesterday was @ 50% (AAA was 16.7%)

 

Chris Sale's GB% is @ 45.3%

Kohl Stewart GB% yesterday was @ 72% (AAA was 57.3%--- AL best is 55%)

 

Is it reasonable to infer the prospect that Stewart at age 23 can use his impressive P-2-C soft contact/ground ball tendencies with, say, developing a little more elusivity in one or more of his out pitches and become a serviceable or better SP?

 

The short answer is: Yes he can. 

 

He may not but... Yes he can and I support his right to try. 

[Pitz]

He is young. There isn't evidence in the data that he is ready to be successful in the majors yet. He is young enough to develop one of his pitches to the point where he gets more swing and misses.

 

I would keep him on the 40 and plan to use an option him to AAA to start next year regardless of how he performs in a handful of starts.

I was thinking that an important piece of Stewart not being added to the 40 man last year means that he will likely have all his option years left heading into next year.