Going forward, what moves do you think will happen?

[jorgenswest]

So we knew Buxton would be a bad hitter so far based on his minor league performance? It just doesn't work that way.

I don’t think we know yet. How can we know? We don’t see him play or workout every day. We don’t have data on the holes in his swing simply by looking at his minor league fangraph page. We don’t know his mindset or resilience looking at that page either. Frankly neither do the volume of pundits who actually see them person very little if at all.

 

We need those who see him every day among the Twins staff to know. They are the only ones in the position to know and it is a must that they have the skill to make the correct assessment.

 

Gordon could come up and get off to a start like Parmelee and Santana or he could start off like Dozier. That data really won’t tell us a lot about next year. Grossman could also start a stretch of an 800 OPS through the all star break. That won’t tell us about August.

 

If the Twins are sellers, bringing up Gordon for the last two months has some value towards his getting his feet wet. It won’t answer the question about whether he should be a starting SS or 2B next year. We have to rely on the skill of the Twins staff. They are the only ones in position to answer that question.

[jtkoupal]

Paul Molitor has had some big moments as the Twins manager. He has led the Twins to a Wild Card game in 2017 out of nowhere and also took a 90-loss team almost to the playoffs in 2015. However, he was also in charge of the 2016 team that finished with the worst record in baseball. Furthermore, he is at the helm for an underperforming team this year that improved in the offseason after a playoff berth.

 

I don't think Molitor, who was promoted during the Terry Ryan regime, is Falvine's ideal managerial candidate. They almost certainly would prefer a more analytics-driven manager, an area where Paul lags behind in many regards. It is hard to speculate as to whether Paul's job is safe regardless of this year's outcome, but it's hard to imagine Falvine loving him in the managerial role.

 

Dozier is the most obvious trade candidate. However, don't hold your breath on the potential return. His numbers are down, with only 9 homers and an OPS+ of a perfectly league-average 100, 11% worse than his career OPS+.

To that end, there are only a few fits. The list of potential suiters, at this point, are Cleveland, Washington, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, St. Louis, San Francisco, and the LA Dodgers. This may seem like a lot of teams, but many of them will explore in-house options and bigger names first. 

 

Escobar is the man the Twins should most try to keep. However, if not, there are a myriad of teams that would pony up something nice for his power and versatility, including the teams listed above and possibly a few more. 

 

Lance Lynn might be the most important Twins player for this trade deadline. If the Twins do fall out of the race, Lance could be a HUGE trade chip. His numbers at the beginning of the season were awful, but if he keeps pitching well for the next few weeks, that will be ignored. Everyone wants starting pitching. Almost everyone needs at least one more quality starter to go through the stretch run, and Lynn would be a major asset to a contender. A few more weeks of quality pitching, and the Twins get a very nice return for Lance Lynn.

 

With bullpens being so important in baseball today, and especially in the postseason, the Twins could get some calls on several relievers. Fernando Rodney has been spectacular since April, Zach Duke has been a quality LEFT-HANDED! reliever, and Addison Reed is a very underrated pitcher who is under control for another year. The Twins have some options this deadline with all three of these guys. There are a lot of teams who need relief pitching.

 

The Twins aren't rebuilding if they shed some pieces here. However, a re-tool is going to be necessary. In fact, I almost think the Twins are BETTER off in the future if they can re-tool this deadline. That doesn't mean that I want them to suck, but going forward, a re-tool with some of these guys getting traded off could actually be more beneficial than keeping them for this year. (It's a huge silver lining, guys. Be positive!)

[ashbury]

Odds are what the oddsmakers figure out how to extract your money and put it into their wallet.

 

Are you saying the odds calculated by people who are highly skilled and determining how likely a team is to make the playoffs is not a reasonable way to demonstrate how a neutral party would evaluate the Twins odds of winning the pennant as compared to other teams?

Do you really believe that when you put your money down on any sports proposition at a large casino or sports book, you are going head to head against the house expert in that sport? Or more succinctly, that you are betting against the House? That isn't what's going on at all.

 

Oddsmakers are highly skilled, but not crucially in determining team likelihoods. Their skill is in matching up money on both sides of the line, and taking their sure profit from the juice. (Seems like I just got done making this observation, jokingly, to Chief in yesterday's game thread. )

 

Crowdsourcing is sometimes an effective way of distilling information, but that's an incidental outcome of the oddsmakers' business, and can go very wrong if taken as a prediction. They're in a business related to arbitrage, and of market-making; I would think someone with your business background would spot that from a mile away.

 

Old Nurse had it right on a macro level.

[caninatl04]

 

Do the Red Sox have much in the prospect pipeline worth acquiring?

 

It is true that (per mlb.com) the Red Sox have only 10 prospects rated 50 or better.  But, one cannot expect much in return for a rental like Lance Lynn.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It is true that (per mlb.com) the Red Sox have only 10 prospects rated 50 or better.  But, one cannot expect much in return for a rental like Lance Lynn.

The player under discussion was Dozier, although admittedly he'd be a rental too.

[caninatl04]

 

The player under discussion was Dozier, although admittedly he'd be a rental too.

Slim pickings at Milwaukee, too.  Of all the possible trade partner candidates, the Evil Empire has by far the deepest prospect list.

Sigh.

[Squirrel]

 

I don't mind Gordon getting his feet wet. But are we going to know one way or the other if he's going to be a full time starter from 250 PAs? I think we would need an established veteran regardless if he bats .350 or .050 in those 250 PAs this season.

As far as Dozier, I still believe the 2nd half binge is coming. And his numbers at the end of the year will look similar to the last 2 seasons.

Then why have young players at all? I don't think it's practical to field an entire team of established veterans; you have to let the young kids at it at some point, sink or swim. There's no way to guarantee anything, but the only way to know for certain is to bring them up and let them at it. I'd probably think differently if the Twins were winning and doing well, but they aren't. This is the opportunity to see what we have coming up in order to make decisions in the off season. Look at Dozier this year? I actually think his presence on the field is actually hurting the team, unless he can get it together ... and even though he's had these major highs and lows in the past is no guarantee he'll get past it this year. There just is no way to guarantee play. Even signing or re-signing a veteran is no guarantee, either. At this point I would consider both Sano and Polanco established players ... maybe not 'veterany' but I think they are established as players on the team. And I'd really like them to re-sign Escobar. At this point I think he brings more 'veteran-ness' than Dozier in a lot of ways ... not only his play on the field, but the kind of guy he is off the field, too. If they take on Morrison's option, then he's another established player. With Mauer and Dozier gone next year, I think they have the option of finding a good mix that brings us more in the long run, than keeping Dozier and/or Mauer. Don't get me wrong, I've always liked Dozier, but I'm not sure keeping him will be a good decision ... unless they know that Gordon can't do it. Then you always have Escobar, whom I like better over all anyway. <shrug> There are no guarantees and we can only guess what right or wrong was in hindsight, but that's my thought on it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I share the same concern. How many times do we have to be burned by the upcoming hot shot prospect without a backup plan? I'd rather he be the backup plan if the established veteran doesn't work out.

 

I agree here as well. I've been clear that I want to keep Escobar. That at least gives them some depth at the ML level should Gordon fail. I'd also be tempted to QO Dozier if he's not traded.

[Mike Sixel]

If they don't have Gordon up.....they probably won't have one position player with less than 2 years in the majors, maybe three or four, as a starter next year.....that seems unrealistic for a mid market team.

[Riverbrian]

 

Then why have young players at all? 

 

Because Players get hurt and young players can be stashed in Rochester. 

 

If you move Gordon into the starting spot he will be handcuffed with a AAAA replacement because you can't stash a Asdrubal Cabrera type replacement in the minors for that seemingly unevitable injury. 

 

Gordon you can stash in the minors and when the Asdrubal Cabrera type gets hurt... you call up Gordon. If Gordon goes nuts... Now you have that good problem to have. Now you have excess that can be traded to fill another hole. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because Players get hurt and young players can be stashed in Rochester. 

 

If you move Gordon into the starting spot he will be handcuffed with a AAAA replacement because you can't stash a Asdrubal Cabrera type replacement in the minors for that seemingly unevitable injury. 

 

Gordon you can stash in the minors and when the Asdrubal Cabrera type gets hurt... you call up Gordon. If Gordon goes nuts... Now you have that good problem to have. Now you have excess that can be traded to fill another hole. 

 

I'm glad you weren't in charge when Hrbek and Gaetti and Puckett were around.....

 

Basically you are arguing for zero rookies, 1 year, or 2 year players to play at all in 2019....other than Garver. That seems like a really unusual situation for any team, let alone a mid-market one.

[lukeduke1980]

 

I'd also be tempted to QO Dozier if he's not traded.

I believe this will happen no matter Dozier's final stat line.  It will be interesting to watch especially based on last year's free agents.  He could end up in a Moustakas dilemna.

[ashbury]

I agree here as well. I've been clear that I want to keep Escobar. That at least gives them some depth at the ML level should Gordon fail. I'd also be tempted to QO Dozier if he's not traded.

He'll accept. Is that a $17M game of Chicken you want the team to play?

[Mike Sixel]

 

He'll accept. Is that a $17M game of Chicken you want the team to play?

 

I think I'm with you on this one.....he'll accept. Not sure I want him to right now.

[Squirrel]

Because Players get hurt and young players can be stashed in Rochester.

 

If you move Gordon into the starting spot he will be handcuffed with a AAAA replacement because you can't stash a Asdrubal Cabrera type replacement in the minors for that seemingly unevitable injury.

 

Gordon you can stash in the minors and when the Asdrubal Cabrera type gets hurt... you call up Gordon. If Gordon goes nuts... Now you have that good problem to have. Now you have excess that can be traded to fill another hole.

 

We’ve already got TWO AAAA players in Petit and Adrianza playing, and Dozier who is doing nothing, in a season that is looking less and less likely. It’s time (or will be soon) to get Gordon in there to get his feet wet THIS season so he’s not completely green when he starts next year as Dozier will most probably be gone. I’m not suggesting this because I think Gordon is some savior for the team ... I don’t think ANYONE is saying this, actually, except you ... I’m saying this because I think it’s time and I think it’s the way to move forward to give us the best option long term and I’d like to see what he can do instead of Petit, at this point. I was fine with Petit in the beginning, but I think it’s time to change it up to give Gordon a trial. If he is completely overmatched in in whatever opportunity we give him this year, then we know we have to make some plans this off season, such as offer Dozier a QO or making sure Esco is re-signed or looking for someone else for a year or two. Granted, nothing and no one are guarantees, but this never playing the young players is a way to never see what you have until it’s too late.

[USAFChief]

 

I believe this will happen no matter Dozier's final stat line.  It will be interesting to watch especially based on last year's free agents.  He could end up in a Moustakas dilemna.

Concur, barring injury or complete tank the rest of the season.

 

And I'd welcome him back on a 1 yr deal. Money isn't an issue next year and if I'm betting who's the better player next year, Gordon or Dozier, I'd lay 10-1 on Dozier.

[Vanimal46]

He'll accept. Is that a $17M game of Chicken you want the team to play?

I'd love to play that game. No such thing as a bad one year contract, right? And alleviates all concerns about signing Dozier for 3-5 years.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm glad you weren't in charge when Hrbek and Gaetti and Puckett were around.....

 

Basically you are arguing for zero rookies, 1 year, or 2 year players to play at all in 2019....other than Garver. That seems like a really unusual situation for any team, let alone a mid-market one.

I'm not sure it's quite that simple. There are some big reasons.

• He's not on the 40 man right now. That's a huge issue. You don't add him early unless you plan on keeping him up. Otherwise, you're wasting an option, and we've all see how bad options management can quickly hamstring a team. 
• There's this other problem named Polanco. He will be returning, and when he does, there's no spot for Gordon. 

As long as this team is in it, Gordon isn't getting called up, and I tend to agree that's it's very unreasonable to think he's going to take MLB by storm. We're stuck with Adrianza right now because both 1B are hurt which moves our 3B to 1B and puts Escobar at 3rd. That's not a situation to waste an option. We will see Gordon likely later this year, either in September, or a month or so earlier if the team decides to sell in July. Right now, it's not a smart move.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

So we knew Buxton would be a bad hitter so far based on his minor league performance? It just doesn't work that way.

Should have damn near been obvious. You watch him guess and not be able to control the strike zone at all right now. I'm guessing it was like that at all levels. He got away with guessing against mediocre stuff in the minors with pitchers who are trying to get better and aren't polished. That is what they pay scouts for. They should damn well be able to pick that out. And if they can't then they aren't good at their job. 

 

 

[markos]

 

I'd love to play that game. No such thing as a bad one year contract, right? And alleviates all concerns about signing Dozier for 3-5 years.

And for what it's worth, Dozier is on pace to be well-worth a $17M contract this year despite his sub-standard start.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not sure it's quite that simple. There are some big reasons.

• He's not on the 40 man right now. That's a huge issue. You don't add him early unless you plan on keeping him up. Otherwise, you're wasting an option, and we've all see how bad options management can quickly hamstring a team. 
• There's this other problem named Polanco. He will be returning, and when he does, there's no spot for Gordon. 

As long as this team is in it, Gordon isn't getting called up, and I tend to agree that's it's very unreasonable to think he's going to take MLB by storm. We're stuck with Adrianza right now because both 1B are hurt which moves our 3B to 1B and puts Escobar at 3rd. That's not a situation to waste an option. We will see Gordon likely later this year, either in September, or a month or so earlier if the team decides to sell in July. Right now, it's not a smart move.

 

 

The only people using "take the league by storm" are those arguing he shouldn't come up. I have not seen one person say he's going to necessarily be good right away. Not one.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Anyone would agree to Realmuto for redundant pieces in nanosecond. Perhaps I am way off in what it would take to acquire him.  I thought it had been established that the Marlins are looking for a haul if they trade him and we have the LuCroy trade as somewhat indicative of Realmuto's value. With an extra year of control he is worth considerably more that LuCroy. Am I wrong thinking it's going to take a lot more than "redundant pieces"? I assumed they would be holding out for pitching so Romero would be at the top of their list. If not Romeroe, than Gonsalves or Graterol plus another top position player prospect and someone like Diaz or Jay.

 

Remember when many here were clamoring for LuCroy and were willing to give up top prospects. What would that have done to our present and future? I would look into the cost somewhere around July 20th if the Twins can improve in the many areas necessary to be considered a legit contender.

Of course they are looking for a haul, and they will get a pretty good offer from someone.

 

I think the point I'm making though is that we have a lot of redundancy right now in those pieces. Gonsalves has no spot on the team in the next season, and possibly 2020. We have more up the middle prospects than we know what to do with. That's redundancy.

 

I think part of the reason you target a guy like Realmuto is that there's nothing in the system that will even come close to his production in the next 2.5 seasons and not much in FA either... and we have a big need.

 

How many of those 1 run losses would we have won with his bat in the lineup?

[yarnivek1972]

I'm not sure it's quite that simple. There are some big reasons.

• He's not on the 40 man right now. That's a huge issue. You don't add him early unless you plan on keeping him up. Otherwise, you're wasting an option, and we've all see how bad options management can quickly hamstring a team.
• There's this other problem named Polanco. He will be returning, and when he does, there's no spot for Gordon.

As long as this team is in it, Gordon isn't getting called up, and I tend to agree that's it's very unreasonable to think he's going to take MLB by storm. We're stuck with Adrianza right now because both 1B are hurt which moves our 3B to 1B and puts Escobar at 3rd. That's not a situation to waste an option. We will see Gordon likely later this year, either in September, or a month or so earlier if the team decides to sell in July. Right now, it's not a smart move.

I don’t think that is an accurate assessment. If they had wanted another first baseman, they would have Vargas up and DFA him again once Mauer was ready. He cleared waivers twice before, he’ll clear again. And if he doesn’t is it something anyone is concerned about?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t think that is an accurate assessment. If they had wanted another first baseman, they would have Vargas up and DFA him again once Mauer was ready. He cleared waivers twice before, he’ll clear again. And if he doesn’t is it something anyone is concerned about?

Vargas actually only cleared waivers once, and the next time, he will be able to opt for free agency instead of taking the outright assignment to AAA. Of course, he's still not hitting at AAA either...

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier is only going to become a worse gamble offensively with worse defense the longer we wait to decide. I hope he has one last binge in him so we can trade him.

 

Bring Gordon up this year to get some exposure.

[Major League Ready]

 

Do you really believe that when you put your money down on any sports proposition at a large casino or sports book, you are going head to head against the house expert in that sport? Or more succinctly, that you are betting against the House? That isn't what's going on at all.

 

Oddsmakers are highly skilled, but not crucially in determining team likelihoods. Their skill is in matching up money on both sides of the line, and taking their sure profit from the juice. (Seems like I just got done making this observation, jokingly, to Chief in yesterday's game thread. )

 

Crowdsourcing is sometimes an effective way of distilling information, but that's an incidental outcome of the oddsmakers' business, and can go very wrong if taken as a prediction. They're in a business related to arbitrage, and of market-making; I would think someone with your business background would spot that from a mile away.

 

Old Nurse had it right on a macro level.

 

I have to admit you are right. I was reaching to find a neutral party that actually quantified the Twins chances. You are absolutely correct in your characterization and I did not think that one through. However, you have to admit that on face value there is still some merit to the relative odds given other teams. I tried on a more than one occasion to have someone explain in baseball terms how this team is anywhere near the same level as the other playoff teams and that garnered no response.

 

If you happened to hear the Mackey & Judd show today, they had Derek Wetmore on. They all agreed that the only way the Twins get to the level of the top teams is if Buxton becomes the superstar we hoped for and Sano becomes a perennial all-star. Judd said he hopes Cleveland gets extremely hot and the Twins become sellers. He even mentioned it would be great if we could acquire a good catching prospect. Basically, they said pretty much exactly what I have been saying so obviously I thought it was a great segment. It's not at all necessary to start over but they do need to retool and they need to get something out of these expiring contracts. They also talked about the possibilities given the payroll dollars becoming available for the 2019 season.

 

Here is the link.  https://player.fm/series/mackey-and-judd/ep-61118-hr-3-derek-wetmore

[Riverbrian]

 

I agree here as well. I've been clear that I want to keep Escobar. That at least gives them some depth at the ML level should Gordon fail. I'd also be tempted to QO Dozier if he's not traded.

 

In my world... I will lose sleep over losing Escobar. I wake up every morning and check the newspaper to find out if he signed an extension... it's starting to feel like I got some disappointed mornings to endure. 

 

 

[Twodogs]

Release Wilson and get someone breathing.

[Squirrel]

 

In my world... I will lose sleep over losing Escobar. I wake up every morning and check the newspaper to find out if he signed an extension... it's starting to feel like I got some disappointed mornings to endure. 

On this we agree. If we had to choose between Esco and Dozier, I choose Esco.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm glad you weren't in charge when Hrbek and Gaetti and Puckett were around.....

 

Basically you are arguing for zero rookies, 1 year, or 2 year players to play at all in 2019....other than Garver. That seems like a really unusual situation for any team, let alone a mid-market one.

 

If I was in charge in 1981... We'd have 15 World Series Titles by now. I win my fantasy baseball league every year. 

 

1981 was a different context. Calvin Griffith was the owner and we lost a lot of games and we had absolutely no hope at all. The CBA was different. I'd get in my car and personally pick up Hrbek, Gaetti, Laudner to get them to the field, just to look at someone else not named Glenn Adams. 

 

Fast forward to 2018... I'm not completely opposed to Nick Gordon getting a look. I'm saying that if I'm the GM... I'm going exhaust most options before I put him on the 40 man roster and starting that clock early if I can avoid it.