Going forward, what moves do you think will happen?

[ashbury]

I have to admit you are right. I was reaching to find a neutral party that actually quantified the Twins chances. You are absolutely correct in your characterization and I did not think that one through.

I appreciate your willingness to find common ground.

 

However, you have to admit that on face value there is still some merit to the relative odds given other teams.

As I said, I see it as a form of crowdsourcing. In statistical terms it would be a biased sample, albeit a bias toward people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is. But it also contains a bias against the most knowledgeable baseball people, since those inside the game are forbidden to gamble on it. Published odds are... a starting point for some kinds of discussions, I suppose. They quantify conventional wisdom, for both good and ill.

 

quote:

I tried on a more than one occasion to have someone explain in baseball terms how this team is anywhere near the same level as the other playoff teams

 

I don't see this roster as being any closer to the top teams than you do. If they were to nose out Cleveland for the AL Central, they'd be underdogs to whomever they faced, including whichever Wild Card team emerged. However, I do think you undervalue getting a seat at the post-season table. There's direct money for the franchise just by being there, plus the goodwill and other intangibles toward the next season's ticket sales. And the short-series phenomenon allows for occasional unexpected outcomes.

 

For me, and apparently Judd, the choice becomes clear-cut only if we are buried in the Central standings and become sellers; if we're still at the fringes of competing with Cleveland in late July then I don't think the decisions are clear-cut at all - except that nothing would probably make me go all-in to the extent of draining the prospect pipeline in favor of established veterans for a pennant push.

[Riverbrian]

 

We’ve already got TWO AAAA players in Petit and Adrianza playing, and Dozier who is doing nothing, in a season that is looking less and less likely. It’s time (or will be soon) to get Gordon in there to get his feet wet THIS season so he’s not completely green when he starts next year as Dozier will most probably be gone. I’m not suggesting this because I think Gordon is some savior for the team ... I don’t think ANYONE is saying this, actually, except you ... I’m saying this because I think it’s time and I think it’s the way to move forward to give us the best option long term and I’d like to see what he can do instead of Petit, at this point. I was fine with Petit in the beginning, but I think it’s time to change it up to give Gordon a trial. If he is completely overmatched in in whatever opportunity we give him this year, then we know we have to make some plans this off season, such as offer Dozier a QO or making sure Esco is re-signed or looking for someone else for a year or two. Granted, nothing and no one are guarantees, but this never playing the young players is a way to never see what you have until it’s too late.

 

We are probably getting mixed up on a couple of discussions that I have going on. 

 

My quote to you was based on 2019. I'd prefer that Gordon starts in AAA in 2019 and is available for call up should someone get injured and when that happens, Gordon plays a lot and he gets a chance to earn the job and create that good problem to have by making it impossible to send him back down. 

 

If I were to focus on this year... Yeah... I'd like to avoid placing Gordon on the 40 man if at all possible for future service time preservation but if he comes up for a taste... I'll be right there to cheer him on. 

 

As for Petit and Adrianaza... They ain't my guys... they have been a source of my main frustration with the roster construction but I'm trying to give the decision makers the benefit of the doubt. 

Adrianaza... He was hand chosen for this roster. The Twins could have upgraded but chose not to.  This tells me that they liked him. Even if Polanco wasn't suspended... Adrianaza was probably going to make the roster since they signed him to a contract in January. Polanco got suspended, Sano got hurt and Adrianaza got pressed into duty and this is his moment. His overall numbers are not solid but he has been pretty decent the past two weeks... 10 for 34 with a couple of home runs with an OPS of 1.045. Only Escobar and Rosario have been better. As a matter of fact... the 4th best OPS over the last 15 days is Brian Dozier at .765. I don't have a ton of confidence of him continuing that type of offensive production but I will support his effort to keep trying. Let him roll until he stops rolling. 

 

Petit is a waste of roster space... Not that I don't believe in Petit. I haven't seen enough to form an opinion. 26 AB's is a real small sample size. I'm willing to give him a chance but Molitor is not giving him a chance. Since May 27th he has had a total of 2 AB's. He's had 2 At-Bats during a time when the team is crying for runs and the temptation to try someone else anybody else has to be pounding like Marisa Tomei's foot in "My Cousin Vinny".

 

Bottom Line... if Petit is only getting two at-bats in this environment... Get him off the roster and roster someone that you can and will play because the most frustrating thing to me is not trying someone else and just going down with the ship. 

 

Back to Gordon... OK... You send down Petit and you call up Gordon. Do you trust Molitor to play him? I remember 2016 when the team was like 3 and 37 in the first 40 games. We had Polanco and Kepler gathering rust on the bench while Dozier was hitting .012 through May. Sano was in RF, Plouffe at 3B, Danny Santana was in CF and Polanco and Kepler got to sit and watch it all die.  

 

Essentially, you release someone to clear a 40 man spot to put Gordon on the roster, You start his Arb clock before you have to, just to have him sit on the bench while Molitor plays Escobar, Adrianaza, Sano, Morrison and Dozier in the infield come hell or high water... Then factor in the pending return of Polanco. 

 

As for the Savior talk... Yeah, those were my words. Two reasons for that:

 

1. This 2018 team needs a Savior... someone to step up and carry some water. It's gonna have to be Sano, Dozier, Buxton, Morrison or Kepler though. 

 

2. If Gordon walks into 2019 with a starting job. He will have to have savior type shoulders to carry the burden attached to him because his backup should he fail will be AAAA.  

[Squirrel]

We are probably getting mixed up on a couple of discussions that I have going on. 

 

My quote to you was based on 2019. I'd prefer that Gordon starts in AAA in 2019 and is available for call up should someone get injured and when that happens, Gordon plays a lot and he gets a chance to earn the job and create that good problem to have by making it impossible to send him back down. 

 

If I were to focus on this year... Yeah... I'd like to avoid placing Gordon on the 40 man if at all possible for future service time preservation but if he comes up for a taste... I'll be right there to cheer him on. 

 

As for Petit and Adrianaza... They ain't my guys... they have been a source of my main frustration with the roster construction but I'm trying to give the decision makers the benefit of the doubt. 

 

Adrianaza... He was hand chosen for this roster. The Twins could have upgraded but chose not to.  This tells me that they liked him. Even if Polanco wasn't suspended... Adrianaza was probably going to make the roster since they signed him to a contract in January. Polanco got suspended, Sano got hurt and Adrianaza got pressed into duty and this is his moment. His overall numbers are not solid but he has been pretty decent the past two weeks... 10 for 34 with a couple of home runs with an OPS of 1.045. Only Escobar and Rosario have been better. As a matter of fact... the 4th best OPS over the last 15 days is Brian Dozier at .765. I don't have a ton of confidence of him continuing that type of offensive production but I will support his effort to keep trying. Let him roll until he stops rolling. 

 

Petit is a waste of roster space... Not that I don't believe in Petit. I haven't seen enough to form an opinion. 26 AB's is a real small sample size. I'm willing to give him a chance but Molitor is not giving him a chance. Since May 27th he has had a total of 2 AB's. He's had 2 At-Bats during a time when the team is crying for runs and the temptation to try someone else anybody else has to be pounding like Marisa Tomei's foot in "My Cousin Vinny".

 

Bottom Line... if Petit is only getting two at-bats in this environment... Get him off the roster and roster someone that you can and will play because the most frustrating thing to me is not trying someone else and just going down with the ship. 

 

Back to Gordon... OK... You send down Petit and you call up Gordon. Do you trust Molitor to play him? I remember 2016 when the team was like 3 and 37 in the first 40 games. We had Polanco and Kepler gathering rust on the bench while Dozier was hitting .012 through May. Sano was in RF, Plouffe at 3B, Danny Santana was in CF and Polanco and Kepler got to sit and watch it all die.  

 

Essentially, you release someone to clear a 40 man spot to put Gordon on the roster, You start his Arb clock before you have to, just to have him sit on the bench while Molitor plays Escobar, Adrianaza, Sano, Morrison and Dozier in the infield come hell or high water... Then factor in the pending return of Polanco. 

 

As for the Savior talk... Yeah, those were my words. Two reasons for that:

 

1. This 2018 team needs a Savior... someone to step up and carry some water. It's gonna have to be Sano, Dozier, Buxton, Morrison or Kepler though. 

 

2. If Gordon walks into 2019 with a starting job. He will have to have savior type shoulders to carry the burden attached to him because his backup should he fail will be AAAA.

 

I agree he has to earn it, but I think you start this year. Get his feet wet, get him that taste. Get him some time during a season that is likely going nowhere and let him see where he needs to get to. And if he’s not ready, you know it and have a better idea if his timeline and can deal with it in the off season with a one or two year contract with someone else. This need to protect his service time I’m not sure is necessary because I think our window will be up before then.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We are probably getting mixed up on a couple of discussions that I have going on.

 

My quote to you was based on 2019. I'd prefer that Gordon starts in AAA in 2019 and is available for call up should someone get injured and when that happens, Gordon plays a lot and he gets a chance to earn the job and create that good problem to have by making it impossible to send him back down.

 

If I were to focus on this year... Yeah... I'd like to avoid placing Gordon on the 40 man if at all possible for future service time preservation but if he comes up for a taste... I'll be right there to cheer him on.

 

As for Petit and Adrianaza... They ain't my guys... they have been a source of my main frustration with the roster construction but I'm trying to give the decision makers the benefit of the doubt.

Adrianaza... He was hand chosen for this roster. The Twins could have upgraded but chose not to. This tells me that they liked him. Even if Polanco wasn't suspended... Adrianaza was probably going to make the roster since they signed him to a contract in January. Polanco got suspended, Sano got hurt and Adrianaza got pressed into duty and this is his moment. His overall numbers are not solid but he has been pretty decent the past two weeks... 10 for 34 with a couple of home runs with an OPS of 1.045. Only Escobar and Rosario have been better. As a matter of fact... the 4th best OPS over the last 15 days is Brian Dozier at .765. I don't have a ton of confidence of him continuing that type of offensive production but I will support his effort to keep trying. Let him roll until he stops rolling.

 

Petit is a waste of roster space... Not that I don't believe in Petit. I haven't seen enough to form an opinion. 26 AB's is a real small sample size. I'm willing to give him a chance but Molitor is not giving him a chance. Since May 27th he has had a total of 2 AB's. He's had 2 At-Bats during a time when the team is crying for runs and the temptation to try someone else anybody else has to be pounding like Marisa Tomei's foot in "My Cousin Vinny".

 

Bottom Line... if Petit is only getting two at-bats in this environment... Get him off the roster and roster someone that you can and will play because the most frustrating thing to me is not trying someone else and just going down with the ship.

 

Back to Gordon... OK... You send down Petit and you call up Gordon. Do you trust Molitor to play him? I remember 2016 when the team was like 3 and 37 in the first 40 games. We had Polanco and Kepler gathering rust on the bench while Dozier was hitting .012 through May. Sano was in RF, Plouffe at 3B, Danny Santana was in CF and Polanco and Kepler got to sit and watch it all die.

 

Essentially, you release someone to clear a 40 man spot to put Gordon on the roster, You start his Arb clock before you have to, just to have him sit on the bench while Molitor plays Escobar, Adrianaza, Sano, Morrison and Dozier in the infield come hell or high water... Then factor in the pending return of Polanco.

 

As for the Savior talk... Yeah, those were my words. Two reasons for that:

 

1. This 2018 team needs a Savior... someone to step up and carry some water. It's gonna have to be Sano, Dozier, Buxton, Morrison or Kepler though.

 

2. If Gordon walks into 2019 with a starting job. He will have to have savior type shoulders to carry the burden attached to him because his backup should he fail will be AAAA.

would your number 3 be “can Molitor”?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree he has to earn it, but I think you start this year. Get his feet wet, get him that taste. Get him some time during a season that is likely going nowhere and let him see where he needs to get to. And if he’s not ready, you know it and have a better idea if his timeline and can deal with it in the off season with a one or two year contract with someone else. This need to protect his service time I’m not sure is necessary because I think our window will be up before then.

if Gordon craps the bed, offer Dozier the QO. He’ll accept it, and now you’ve got your 2b another year to get Gordon acclimated

[Riverbrian]

 

would your number 3 be “can Molitor”?

 

Yeah

 

#4 Would be: 16 Pages Going forward, what moves do you think will happen and Gordon is like the only solution left standing. 

 

 

 

[beckmt]

 

Stop! Stop! Stop!  Please stop all the ridiculous trade talk.  Trade Dozier you say...think back a year.  Dozier was having an OK first half and what were we offered for him?  Nothing worth trading for.  What would make you think that we should trade him this year?  What would make you think...using your brain rather than your emotions...that anyone would give us anything for him this year?  He's having a bad year and you think we will get something of value for him.  Why?  There is a better chance of him catching fire again and having a fantastic 2nd half and leading us to the playoffs than there is of him getting us anything of any value at the trade deadline.  So please, take off your GM hat...it doesn't fit you and looks bad on you anyway.

Reasons to trade Dozier.

1.  Would you put a QO on him at this point, it may look different from now, but if the stats look like this maybe some return is better than nada.

2.  Trading him does not mean you cannot sign him in the offseason, but the Twins have a fair about of middle infield depth, so probably do not need to resign Dozier.

3.  Resigning Escobar makes a lot more sense, younger and somewhere around the price for Dozier.

4. If you resign Escobar and possibly Mauer or another 1B for next year, you can still have Sano play some third and you do not need Dozier to play.

[beckmt]

 

Concur, barring injury or complete tank the rest of the season.

 

And I'd welcome him back on a 1 yr deal. Money isn't an issue next year and if I'm betting who's the better player next year, Gordon or Dozier, I'd lay 10-1 on Dozier.

If you expect Dozier to get only $6 million a year, I wonder what you're smoking.  Some contender will offer him more than that as a possible full timer, but a worst a role player.

[Danchat]

 

If you expect Dozier to get only $6 million a year, I wonder what you're smoking.  Some contender will offer him more than that as a possible full timer, but a worst a role player.

Nobody would have believed you if you told them that's the deal Moustakas signed in free agency last season. You'd get laughed right off the website.

 

But I think this past offseason's market and Moustakas' deal are outliers. I do believe teams will be more aggressive this year and Dozier will at the least make more than $10M a year on a new deal.

[old nurse]

 

Are you saying the odds calculated by people who are highly skilled and determining how likely a team is to make the playoffs is not a reasonable way to demonstrate how a neutral party would evaluate the Twins odds of winning the pennant as compared to other teams?

They are betting odds not outcome odds. The line is set by anticipated money bet for each team.

[alarp33]

 

They are betting odds not outcome odds. The line is set by anticipated money bet for each team.

 

You are right if you are speaking about how they arrived at Detroit being -108 tonight vs the Twins.  They are attempting to garner similar money on each side of the line. 

 

That's not really true at all for Futures.  It would be impossible to balance the anticipated $ bet on 30 teams.  They absolutely use strength of teams, records, schedule, etc.  

 

Odds to make playoffs in AL Per Fangraphs (in order of most likely)

 

Yankees

Astros

Red Sox

Indians

Mariners

Angels

 

 

Odds to win AL Pennant in Vegas (in order of best odds)

 

Yankees

Astros

Red Sox 

Indians

Mariners

Angels

 

Odds to Win WS (Fangraphs)

 

Astros

Yankees

Cubs

Nationals

Red Sox

Indians

 

Odds to Win WS (Vegas)

 

Astros

Yankees

Red Sox

Nationals

Cubs

Indians

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree he has to earn it, but I think you start this year. Get his feet wet, get him that taste. Get him some time during a season that is likely going nowhere and let him see where he needs to get to. And if he’s not ready, you know it and have a better idea if his timeline and can deal with it in the off season with a one or two year contract with someone else. This need to protect his service time I’m not sure is necessary because I think our window will be up before then.

 

I'm all about getting the able-bodied young guys' feet wet in a losing season. Most of them don't come in a light the world on fire their first time around, better to take their lumps now than next year right?

 

It's not like it's waiving the white flag when the guys who would be replaced are already taking lumps too.

[USAFChief]

 

You are right if you are speaking about how they arrived at Detroit being -108 tonight vs the Twins.  They are attempting to garner similar money on each side of the line. 

 

That's not really true at all for Futures.  It would be impossible to balance the anticipated $ bet on 30 teams.  They absolutely use strength of teams, records, schedule, etc.  

 

Odds to make playoffs in AL Per Fangraphs (in order of most likely)

 

Yankees

Astros

Red Sox

Indians

Mariners

Angels

 

 

Odds to win AL Pennant in Vegas (in order of best odds)

 

Yankees

Astros

Red Sox 

Indians

Mariners

Angels

 

Odds to Win WS (Fangraphs)

 

Astros

Yankees

Cubs

Nationals

Red Sox

Indians

 

Odds to Win WS (Vegas)

 

Astros

Yankees

Red Sox

Nationals

Cubs

Indians

Mostly true.

 

For things like futures bets, they are trying to balance the actual probabilities of winning the event, with the reality that more people bet on certain teams, with the need for betters to place bets on long shots.

 

There are more betters willing to lay money on the Yankees than the Twins, for example. In Vegas, they also have to factor the amount of betters who live in California, and are inclined to bet on California (particularly Southern California) teams.

 

They set futures odds while considering all those factors, and try to arrive at a number that will both generate betting action, and provide cover for the possibility of a long shot winning.

 

Enough bets on the Yankees at 3-2, Houston at 5-2, and the Angels at 7-1 covers the possibility of the Twins winning at 60-1, for example, and vice versa. They absolutely want people betting on the Twins, the Rays, the Pirates, etc, and will extend longer than actual odds if necessary to generate action. They don't want to end up in a situation where too much money is on the favorite, which of course means the book is exposed if the favorite wins.

 

It's not as precise and linear as "Twins -110 over Detroit" or "Vikings -3.5pts vs Lions," where they absolutely want the same money bet on both teams, but there is still some thought placed on generating action and limiting exposure.

[alarp33]

 

Mostly true.

 

For things like futures bets, they are trying to balance the actual probabilities of winning the event, with the reality that more people bet on certain teams, with the need for betters to place bets on long shots.

 

There are more betters willing to lay money on the Yankees than the Twins, for example. In Vegas, they also have to factor the amount of betters who live in California, and are inclined to bet on California (particularly Southern California) teams.

 

They set futures odds while considering all those factors, and try to arrive at a number that will both generate betting action, and provide cover for the possibility of a long shot winning.

 

Enough bets on the Yankees at 3-2, Houston at 5-2, and the Angels at 7-1 covers the possibility of the Twins winning at 60-1, for example, and vice versa. They absolutely want people betting on the Twins, the Rays, the Pirates, etc, and will extend longer than actual odds if necessary to generate action. They don't want to end up in a situation where too much money is on the favorite, which of course means the book is exposed if the favorite wins.

 

It's not as precise and linear as "Twins -110 over Detroit" or "Vikings -3.5pts vs Lions," where they absolutely want the same money bet on both teams, but there is still some thought placed on generating action and limiting exposure.

 

Correct/ Agreed.  My overall point is looking at Vegas odds to determine WS odds for example are a fine barometer to go off of when looking at this team, like the original poster was doing.  It is not simply "$ bet on the Twins".  

[USAFChief]

 

Correct/ Agreed.  My overall point is looking at Vegas odds to determine WS odds for example are a fine barometer to go off of when looking at this team, like the original poster was doing.  It is not simply "$ bet on the Twins".  

eh...I don't consider Vegas futures odds to be based on reality.  In general, sure, the Yankees are a better team, and more likely to win the AL. 

 

But there's more to it than that. Coupled with the reality that it's baseball, it's mid June, and it's not really possible, for anyone, to say much definitively about the 2018 season. 

[gocgo]

 

Reasons to trade Dozier.

1.  Would you put a QO on him at this point, it may look different from now, but if the stats look like this maybe some return is better than nada.

2.  Trading him does not mean you cannot sign him in the offseason, but the Twins have a fair about of middle infield depth, so probably do not need to resign Dozier.

3.  Resigning Escobar makes a lot more sense, younger and somewhere around the price for Dozier.

4. If you resign Escobar and possibly Mauer or another 1B for next year, you can still have Sano play some third and you do not need Dozier to play.

I understand the reasons to trade him...in a month.  However, we are 6 games back from an unimpressive division leader and we aren't even half way thru the season.  A season that has seen injuries, lousy luck, and underperforming stars (including Dozier).  The odds are better that this team will start performing up to its capabilities (including Dozier) than the odds of getting anything of value for him.  I just think all of this trade talk is throwing in the towel on a season that is very salvageable...but I'm a glass is half full kind of guy...today.

[alarp33]

 

eh...I don't consider Vegas futures odds to be based on reality.  In general, sure, the Yankees are a better team, and more likely to win the AL. 

 

But there's more to it than that. Coupled with the reality that it's baseball, it's mid June, and it's not really possible, for anyone, to say much definitively about the 2018 season. 

 

No I'm not saying anything definitive can be said.  My point is there's nothing wrong with the statement "Vegas has Hou at 5/1 to win the World Series and the Twins at 66/1, the Twins are not in the same class as the real contenders".  That is NOT simply based on money coming in on those teams.  Houston has a significantly better chance of winning the WS than the Twins.  

[Major League Ready]

 

Of course they are looking for a haul, and they will get a pretty good offer from someone.

I think the point I'm making though is that we have a lot of redundancy right now in those pieces. Gonsalves has no spot on the team in the next season, and possibly 2020. We have more up the middle prospects than we know what to do with. That's redundancy.

I think part of the reason you target a guy like Realmuto is that there's nothing in the system that will even come close to his production in the next 2.5 seasons and not much in FA either... and we have a big need.

How many of those 1 run losses would we have won with his bat in the lineup?

 

It’s not that I think you position is without merit.  I think it’s is very important to look beyond 2019.  We are going to lose Santana and Lynn after this year.  Gibson and Odorizzi after next year. We just don’t have enough depth in starting pitching prospects that I would be willing to give one up. Plus, I think Romero would be the guy they want. I guess the basis of what I have been saying is that fan think in terms of the immediate and next year but very few look at the long-term as required of a GM.

 

My other issue is more fundamental. I think it’s pretty evident that even the top revenue teams need to prioritize their top prospects.  Proven players are so expensive that even NY, LA, and Boston had a hard time competing following approached similar in concept to what you are advocating. The new breed of FO executives have shown they understand the need to prioritize the acquisition, development and retention of top  prospects. Given the disparity in revenue, I believe the Twins have to prioritize prospects in almost every case. Their ability to add a key piece or two through agency is dependent upon them fielding a team with as many highly productive players on cost controlled contract as possible. How else can we produce the same level of productivity with considerable less available payroll dollars?

 

BTW ... What do you or others think would take in terms of trading prospects for Realmuto?

[diehardtwinsfan]

It’s not that I think you position is without merit.  I think it’s is very important to look beyond 2019.  We are going to lose Santana and Lynn after this year.  Gibson and Odorizzi after next year. We just don’t have enough depth in starting pitching prospects that I would be willing to give one up. Plus, I think Romero would be the guy they want. I guess the basis of what I have been saying is that fan think in terms of the immediate and next year but very few look at the long-term as required of a GM.

 

My other issue is more fundamental. I think it’s pretty evident that even the top revenue teams need to prioritize their top prospects.  Proven players are so expensive that even NY, LA, and Boston had a hard time competing following approached similar in concept to what you are advocating. The new breed of FO executives have shown they understand the need to prioritize the acquisition, development and retention of top  prospects. Given the disparity in revenue, I believe the Twins have to prioritize prospects in almost every case. Their ability to add a key piece or two through agency is dependent upon them fielding a team with as many highly productive players on cost controlled contract as possible. How else can we produce the same level of productivity with considerable less available payroll dollars?

 

BTW ... What do you or others think would take in terms of trading prospects for Realmuto?

We're largely on the same page believe it or not. You've forgotten about Pineda for next year, and probably May as well, so the loss of Santana/Lynn doesn't change things much for 2019. Gibby and Odorizi (though both could be QO candidates as well as Pineda for that matter) next year will be a bigger one. The 2020 rotation (currently) would be something like Berrios, Romero, May with two of Gonsalves, Slegers, Littell, Jorge, or QO/FA guy(s). Still not the end of the world, as one would hope the young guys are all still developing and that someone has stepped up by then. If the end goal is having cheap talent ,then you have to have some faith that this will happen.

 

Back to your question, I don't think it will take Romero, yeah, they can ask, but he's pretty much a mainstay right now, and I suspect FL will want younger talent. The conversation will start at Lewis. I think Lewis, Gonsalves, and probably a guy like Lewin Diaz would be a very competitive offer. If by some chance you could downgrade Lewis to a guy like Wander Javier or even Nick Gordon (though Gordon presents other issues for MN being the eminent need for his position once Dozier is gone), I'd probably do it (though I doubt FL would... at least for now).

[beckmt]

 

I understand the reasons to trade him...in a month.  However, we are 6 games back from an unimpressive division leader and we aren't even half way thru the season.  A season that has seen injuries, lousy luck, and underperforming stars (including Dozier).  The odds are better that this team will start performing up to its capabilities (including Dozier) than the odds of getting anything of value for him.  I just think all of this trade talk is throwing in the towel on a season that is very salvageable...but I'm a glass is half full kind of guy...today.

If Dozier has the same stats at this time next month his value both going forward and to the Twins in trade will be close to zero. If you do this you are betting the Indians will not fix their pen. That in my mind is a horrible bet.

Their are 13 teams who probably will be selling and a few more that might sell with a losing streak in the next few weeks.  There will be less buyers and they will be looking for specific items.  So you are rolling the dice to see if you lose Dozier for nothing.

[USAFChief]

 

If Dozier has the same stats at this time next month his value both going forward and to the Twins in trade will be close to zero. If you do this you are betting the Indians will not fix their pen. That in my mind is a horrible bet.

Their are 13 teams who probably will be selling and a few more that might sell with a losing streak in the next few weeks.  There will be less buyers and they will be looking for specific items.  So you are rolling the dice to see if you lose Dozier for nothing.

Dozier currently has a 100 OPS+, with every reason to believe that will improve...he's been above that number in each of the past four seasons. He's healthy, and durable, and not old. He's currently the third most valuable Twin if you believe in bWAR. His salary isn't out of line, or particularly big. He's had a down season so far, but he hasn't been terrible.

 

Value close to zero?

 

I don't think that's even close to true. 

[old nurse]

 

You are right if you are speaking about how they arrived at Detroit being -108 tonight vs the Twins.  They are attempting to garner similar money on each side of the line. 

 

That's not really true at all for Futures.  It would be impossible to balance the anticipated $ bet on 30 teams.  They absolutely use strength of teams, records, schedule, etc.  

 

Odds to make playoffs in AL Per Fangraphs (in order of most likely)

 

Yankees

Astros

Red Sox

Indians

Mariners

Angels

 

 

Odds to win AL Pennant in Vegas (in order of best odds)

 

Yankees

Astros

Red Sox 

Indians

Mariners

Angels

 

Odds to Win WS (Fangraphs)

 

Astros

Yankees

Cubs

Nationals

Red Sox

Indians

 

Odds to Win WS (Vegas)

 

Astros

Yankees

Red Sox

Nationals

Cubs

Indians

If you wish to believe that a company that is in the business of making money would align numbers so they lose money so be it.  While the order may be the same that proves nothing, the Vegas odds numbers matching fangraphs would prove your point. You provide no such information.  When you look at the difference between the betting line and the stats oriented lines those with the greatest chance of winning by statistical models will likely be more heavily favored by Vegas.

[alarp33]

 

If you wish to believe that a company that is in the business of making money would align numbers so they lose money so be it.  While the order may be the same that proves nothing, the Vegas odds numbers matching fangraphs would prove your point. You provide no such information.  When you look at the difference between the betting line and the stats oriented lines those with the greatest chance of winning by statistical models will likely be more heavily favored by Vegas.

 

You are incorrect, and no one said vegas would align numbers so they lose money.  It is impossible to choose 30 events and garner exact equal money on all sides.  Futures odds are set based on numerous factors, money coming in is one of them, but far from the only one.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I did not predict bringing back Belisle and did not prioritize bullpen help over hitters

[Mike Sixel]

I did not predict bringing back Belisle and did not prioritize bullpen help over hitters

Maybe he's going to DH? I too did not see this coming

[TheLeviathan]

 

I did not predict bringing back Belisle and did not prioritize bullpen help over hitters

 

They probably duck-taped Pressley's arm back on this weekend and realized that wasn't going to hold long.

[yarnivek1972]

Here’s a move I’d like to see. Matt Magill actually pitching.

[old nurse]

 

You are incorrect, and no one said vegas would align numbers so they lose money.  It is impossible to choose 30 events and garner exact equal money on all sides.  Futures odds are set based on numerous factors, money coming in is one of them, but far from the only one.  

If money is one of the factors then I am correct as the odds set by Vegas are then not an accurate reflection of the team

[Major League Ready]

 

eh...I don't consider Vegas futures odds to be based on reality.  In general, sure, the Yankees are a better team, and more likely to win the AL. 

 

But there's more to it than that. Coupled with the reality that it's baseball, it's mid June, and it's not really possible, for anyone, to say much definitively about the 2018 season. 

 

How much more definitive can it get than the incredible teams NY, Boston, and Houston haven put together. We know at anytime a team can go cold like the Dodgers did last year. Houston and Cleveland are not playing up to their potential but we can say in no uncertain teams those teams all have considerably more proven talent than the Twins. That chasm is not going to be closed by adding a catcher. If the goal is to improve by 3 wins at the cost of giving up top prospects than by all means we should trade away our future. If you want to build a real contender it's incredibly inept management.

[Vanimal46]

Houston is incredibly lucky to have Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Brian McCann, and Ken Giles already in their system. It took a lot of conviction to not trade them at any point along the way.