Going forward, what moves do you think will happen?

[USAFChief]

 

OK.  Let's just put this in the most possible of neutral terms.  How do odds makers see the Twins versus the teams I mentioned. These are the odds of winning the American League pennant.

 

Houston 11/4

NY 3/1

Boston  7/2

Twins 25/1

 

In other words the other teams are roughly 8X more likely to go to the world series. Any reasonable assessment of their odds is that the odds are significantly against them. Any other interpretation is homerism in my opinion. I gave you an opening to make a meaningful argument. In what areas are the Twins equivalent to NY, Boston, and Houston? You can just argue that any team can get hot. While true, that's a very empty premise, especially in terms of how to manage assets.

While all that may be true, I don't want them to curl up in a ball and protect ownership's pocketbook, nor do I expect the need for catching to disappear through patience.

 

And the ALC is very winnable this year, IMO. We've been sold on "wait till all those minor league studs get here" for five years now. Several front line players might not be here next year, should we just throw our collective hands in the air and wait for the next round of minor league studs to get here? 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

While all that may be true, I don't want them to curl up in a ball and protect ownership's pocketbook, nor do I expect the need for catching to disappear through patience.

 

And the ALC is very winnable this year, IMO. We've been sold on "wait till all those minor league studs get here" for five years now. Several front line players might not be here next year, should we just throw our collective hands in the air and wait for the next round of minor league studs to get here?

Yes.

[Vanimal46]

OK. Let's just put this in the most possible of neutral terms. How do odds makers see the Twins versus the teams I mentioned. These are the odds of winning the American League pennant.

 

Houston 11/4

NY 3/1

Boston 7/2

Twins 25/1

 

In other words the other teams are roughly 8X more likely to go to the world series. Any reasonable assessment of their odds is that the odds are significantly against them. Any other interpretation is homerism in my opinion. I gave you an opening to make a meaningful argument. In what areas are the Twins equivalent to NY, Boston, and Houston? You can just argue that any team can get hot. While true, that's a very empty premise, especially in terms of how to manage assets.

They're probably not equivalent over the course of a full season to those teams. Over a 1,5, or 7 game series? Upsets do happen. Especially so in a wild card play in game.

 

We've both been here for a while and I know that you know the Twins don't have the financial resources of other teams. Every year they push out trying to win is another year where bigger market teams (Chicago and Detroit) are able to reload.

 

At what point can we start trying to contend here?

[Vanimal46]

Yes.

[Mike Sixel]

Just wait until 2022! Then they'll be contenders!

And they will trade prospects for pieces!

[ewen21]

 

He doesn't have to hit. He has to contribute as Buxton can contribute. He had the best WAR on the team last year based mostly on his defense.  

 

I am sorry, but I am getting tired of reading that.  His defensive WAR rating last year might very well be the best one he will ever post at that was 2.8.  HIs oWAR was 2.7 and that was because he slugged fairly well and hit for average over the last two months.  If you are saying he can be this guy and his defense still makes up for it then you are sorely mistaken.

 

No player can be absolved from hitting.  Not a player that plays everyday.  It is too costly to the team, stellar defense notwithstanding.

[Jham]

OK. Let's just put this in the most possible of neutral terms. How do odds makers see the Twins versus the teams I mentioned. These are the odds of winning the American League pennant.

 

Houston 11/4

NY 3/1

Boston 7/2

Twins 25/1

 

In other words the other teams are roughly 8X more likely to go to the world series. Any reasonable assessment of their odds is that the odds are significantly against them. Any other interpretation is homerism in my opinion. I gave you an opening to make a meaningful argument. In what areas are the Twins equivalent to NY, Boston, and Houston? You can just argue that any team can get hot. While true, that's a very empty premise, especially in terms of how to manage assets.

What's wrong with winning division titles, again?

[yarnivek1972]

What's wrong with winning division titles, again?

No parade.

[Jham]

No parade.

If you're watching a parade, don't follow it. It never changes. If the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction. You will fast-forward the parade. - Mitch Heberg

[Riverbrian]

 

OK.  Let's just put this in the most possible of neutral terms.  How do odds makers see the Twins versus the teams I mentioned. These are the odds of winning the American League pennant.

 

Houston 11/4

NY 3/1

Boston  7/2

Twins 25/1

 

In other words the other teams are roughly 8X more likely to go to the world series. Any reasonable assessment of their odds is that the odds are significantly against them. Any other interpretation is homerism in my opinion. I gave you an opening to make a meaningful argument. In what areas are the Twins equivalent to NY, Boston, and Houston? You can just argue that any team can get hot. While true, that's a very empty premise, especially in terms of how to manage assets.

 

I understand that you are using the Vegas Odds to make a broader point about there is a time to sell and a time to buy. But... If we can just argue that any team can get hot... Personally, It's all I need.

 

The premise only looks empty because the historical precedence is obviously camouflaged or something. It isn't that any team can get hot... Any team can also get cold and it happens almost every year come playoff time and almost any sport (besides the NBA... I'm a little tired of the Warriors/Cavs).

 

If you have a chance at reaching the playoffs don't let an empty premise get in your way... you go for it. 

 

With that said... I'm not advocating that the Twins go on a buying spree right now. But... if they are 3 games behind Cleveland after the All-Star Break. I'd hate to see the front office stand pat because they are scared of Boston, New York and Houston. I don't want my front offices run on that type of hubris or arrogance. I want my front offices ready to support a rising tide even if they don't understand why it's rising. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

I would love to have this conversation in the board room where management principles dictate actions and emotional (fanatical) decision making gets your a$$ kicked to the curb. Expenditure of resources, especially when a premium exists is done when the odds are in your favor. Any other approach is incompetence. Winning a division does not make you a contender when there are 3 teams that are grossly superior.  Fans can stick their heads in the sand and say we want it now!  Leadership requires doing the right thing for more than a single season view regardless of what the masses believe. If the masses knew what was best, they would not have to pay GMs millions/year. 

 

Just look back on the moves this board called for in the same vein. Many called for trading for LuCroy for 2 years and giving up the likes of Kepler or Berrios.  Some wanted Tulo while giving up our best prospects.  Others wanted us to trade Nolasco for Shields. Yu Darvish was a sure thing no brainer give him whatever it takes. It was also insisted Berrios was our best SP long before he was close and on and on. This team would have no top prospects, a huge payroll, and still be mediocre of the moves insisted upon here were executed.

[Riverbrian]

 

I would love to have this conversation in the board room where management principals dictate actions and emotional (fanatical) decision making gets your a$$ kicked to the curb. Expenditure of resources, especially when a premium exists is done when the odds are in your favor. Any other approach is incompetence. Winning a division does not make you a contender when there are 3 teams that are grossly superior.  Fans can stick their heads in the sand and say we want it now!  Leadership requires doing the right thing for more than a single season view regardless of what the masses believe. If the masses knew what was best, they would not have to pay GMs millions/year. 

 

Just look back on the moves this board called for in the same vein. Many called for trading for LuCroy for 2 years and giving up the likes of Kepler or Berrios.  Some wanted Tulo while giving up our best prospects.  Others wanted us to trade Nolasco for Shields. Yu Darvish was a sure thing no brainer give him whatever it takes. It was also insisted Berrios was our best SP long before he was close and on and on. This team would have no top prospects, a huge payroll, and still be mediocre of the moves insisted upon here were executed.

 

You can't look at the board like it is a single voice. It never has been. 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

You can't look at the board like it is a single voice. It never has been. 

 

That's true but also not the intent. The intent was to point out there is a constant theme of maximizing the short-term. That has a tendency to mitigate sustained success in this league. Previous management aside, there are generally good reasons why GMs don't manage the way fans would like them to manage. There are alot of people here who conveniently forget the deals they insisted that were great that would have been disasters with long-term impact.

[Riverbrian]

 

That's true but also not the intent. The intent was to point out there is a constant theme of maximizing the short-term. That has a tendency to mitigate sustained success in this league. Previous management aside, there are generally good reasons why GMs don't manage the way fans would like them to manage. There are alot of people here who conveniently forget the deals they insisted that were great that would have been disasters with long-term impact.

 

Most of the constant themes are matched by counter constant themes. 

 

I agree with you that management have to run organizations different than we run our fantasy baseball team and Thank God they do... but If I'm a voting member of the board you described and the General Manager breaks out the power point, using Las Vegas Odds, run differential, total payroll or the words of Ken Rosenthal. Whatever slides in his presentation that he comes up with as supporting evidence to declare that our team who just made the playoff has no chance against the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros.

 

He is just going to get me to call for an immediate vote of no-confidence and waiting for the second that is sure to come. 

 

While many on this board are conveniently forgetting the deals they advocated that turned out to be disasters. 

 

Declaring the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros as unbeatable requires some convenient forgetting of the many playoff upsets that occur almost every year. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

That's true but also not the intent. The intent was to point out there is a constant theme of maximizing the short-term. That has a tendency to mitigate sustained success in this league. Previous management aside, there are generally good reasons why GMs don't manage the way fans would like them to manage. There are alot of people here who conveniently forget the deals they insisted that were great that would have been disasters with long-term impact.

What the casual fan (who never played the game) doesn't get.

 

You need to work, you need to learn from your mistakes, you need to think of the fans.

Everyone of the Twins on this roster do that. But you need to be healthy and have a little luck. A lot of luck is better.  This is major league pitching they are facing.

 

Wise up. 

 

TD fans are impatient. The Twins aren't failing us. We are failing them. 

 

Geez you guys. This is a young team with a lot of talent.  Hang in there. Show some faith. 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Most of the constant themes are matched by counter constant themes. 

 

I agree with you that management have to run organizations different than we run our fantasy baseball team and Thank God they do... but If I'm a voting member of the board you described and the General Manager breaks out the power point, using Las Vegas Odds, run differential, total payroll or the words of Ken Rosenthal. Whatever slides in his presentation that he comes up with as supporting evidence to declare that our team who just made the playoff has no chance against the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros.

 

He is just going to get me to call for an immediate vote of no-confidence and waiting for the second that is sure to come. 

 

While many on this board are conveniently forgetting the deals they advocated that turned out to be disasters. 

 

Declaring the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros as unbeatable requires some convenient forgetting of the many playoff upsets that occur almost every year. 

 

Declaring them unbeatable this year is a very different thing than managing assets in a manner to eventually field a team on par with NY, Boston and NY. I have been before numerous boards and delivered 100+ page assessments to a number of state legislatures. Board members look to outside counsel to counteract short-sighted management. I would love to have this debate in front of that type of audience. This team is mediocre and to suggest it can be put on par with NY by trading for premium assets is the product of fandom not analytical thought, Fans think in terms of this year.  What are you going to do next year when several key players are gone.  What are you going to do in the years beyond that if you trade away our best prospects? 

 

This team is no threat unless Buxton and Sano get it together. The pitching is really not good enough to contend either. How are you going to fix the problem by trading assets.  Paying the premium required for that type of trade during the season is a good way to ensure future mediocrity. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Declaring them unbeatable this year is a very different thing than managing assets in a manner to eventually field a team on par with NY, Boston and NY. I have been before numerous boards and delivered 100+ page assessments to a number of state legislatures. Board members look to outside counsel to counteract short-sighted management. I would love to have this debate in front of that type of audience. This team is mediocre and to suggest it can be put on par with NY by trading for premium assets is the product of fandom not analytical thought, Fans think in terms of this year.  What are you going to do next year when several key players are gone.  What are you going to do in the years beyond that if you trade away our best prospects? 

 

This team is no threat unless Buxton and Sano get it together. The pitching is really not good enough to contend either. How are you going to fix the problem by trading assets.  Paying the premium required for that type of trade during the season is a good way to ensure future mediocrity.

While I agree that selling is likely going to be the answer (at least if they continue playing this way, not for the reasons you state), why exactly wouldn't they use redundant pieces to get a guy like Realmuto, who has 2.5 more years of control and a potential QO to add a 3rd? Why wouldn't they potentially pick up another above average SP/RP with some team control?

 

The problem with not using those premium assets to get better on the field is the other side to this board room discussion. I don't think any board would be happy with a consistent sub-standard product that no one buys either. There's a tradeoff. You're right that their success in the next few years largely hinges on the success of Buxton and Sano. That doesn't mean you shouldn't acquire better pieces to go around them.

[Riverbrian]

 

Declaring them unbeatable this year is a very different thing than managing assets in a manner to eventually field a team on par with NY, Boston and NY. I have been before numerous boards and delivered 100+ page assessments to a number of state legislatures. Board members look to outside counsel to counteract short-sighted management. I would love to have this debate in front of that type of audience. This team is mediocre and to suggest it can be put on par with NY by trading for premium assets is the product of fandom not analytical thought, Fans think in terms of this year.  What are you going to do next year when several key players are gone.  What are you going to do in the years beyond that if you trade away our best prospects? 

 

This team is no threat unless Buxton and Sano get it together. The pitching is really not good enough to contend either. How are you going to fix the problem by trading assets.  Paying the premium required for that type of trade during the season is a good way to ensure future mediocrity. 

 

My wife is the one who usually does the 100+ page assessments. 

 

I think we both agree that there is nuance to the decision making process so it probably won't be productive to discuss this on the extreme side of positions.

 

I'll assume that you wouldn't refuse to reasonably upgrade a contender and ask that you don't assume that I would trade our top ten prospects without a care. 

 

Personally, I'm not trading Royce Lewis for Realmuto but that position has more to do with the position scarcity price tag than the Yankees. 

 

It's the "On Par" stuff that you and I will disagree about. I've seen David Freese make the Cardinals "On Par" all by himself for a well timed 18 game stretch. 

 

I'll always be like a rhino around a campfire when anyone suggests the wall can't be climbed. 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

While I agree that selling is likely going to be the answer (at least if they continue playing this way, not for the reasons you state), why exactly wouldn't they use redundant pieces to get a guy like Realmuto, who has 2.5 more years of control and a potential QO to add a 3rd? Why wouldn't they potentially pick up another above average SP/RP with some team control?

The problem with not using those premium assets to get better on the field is the other side to this board room discussion. I don't think any board would be happy with a consistent sub-standard product that no one buys either. There's a tradeoff. You're right that their success in the next few years largely hinges on the success of Buxton and Sano. That doesn't mean you shouldn't acquire better pieces to go around them.

 

I'm willing to pay the price... I'm not willing to pay THAT price for a catcher. 

 

I don't know what the price tag will be... I just assume it will be real high based on what it cost to acquire LuCroy and what it cost to acquire Avila and all the other Catcher trades. 

 

This is where the madness has to end. 

 

Catchers typically play around 100 to 115 games a year. Injuries, day games after night games and other factors, typically limits how often they are in the lineup. 

 

Good hitting catchers are pretty rare but you also have to compare the good hitting catcher to other catchers in order to consider them good hitting. 

 

Realmuto will compare favorably to Jason Castro in terms of production and playing time but he won't compare very well to Marcell Ozuna. Yet I think it is quite possible that it will cost you more to get Realmuto due to position scarcity. 

 

If that is the case... I'd rather they go get Ozuna for less and enjoy more production. 

 

Catchers... Develop your own. Don't over pay for them. I want Aaron Hicks back. 

[USAFChief]

I have been before numerous boards and delivered 100+ page assessments to a number of state legislatures.

 

I have been before the Chief of Staff of the Air Force.

 

That’s also irrelevant to this discussion.

[ChrisKnutson]

Ya know the Twins have this thing called the DH sooo Im pretty sure Realmuto wouldn’t be limited to playing only 115 games.

[Jham]

I would love to have this conversation in the board room where management principles dictate actions and emotional (fanatical) decision making gets your a$$ kicked to the curb. Expenditure of resources, especially when a premium exists is done when the odds are in your favor. Any other approach is incompetence. Winning a division does not make you a contender when there are 3 teams that are grossly superior. Fans can stick their heads in the sand and say we want it now! Leadership requires doing the right thing for more than a single season view regardless of what the masses believe. If the masses knew what was best, they would not have to pay GMs millions/year.

 

Just look back on the moves this board called for in the same vein. Many called for trading for LuCroy for 2 years and giving up the likes of Kepler or Berrios. Some wanted Tulo while giving up our best prospects. Others wanted us to trade Nolasco for Shields. Yu Darvish was a sure thing no brainer give him whatever it takes. It was also insisted Berrios was our best SP long before he was close and on and on. This team would have no top prospects, a huge payroll, and still be mediocre of the moves insisted upon here were executed.

That's a pretty narrow view of success, and your analogy is a bit more condescending than I think you intended.

 

If the idea is to provide a competitive entertaining and profitable brand of baseball year in and year out with a consistent strive to accumulate talent and field a better product, then let the results which are largely unpredictable, happen as it happens, I don't think you'd be fired for suggesting ways to improve the team.

 

Tearing down and rebuilding, then shoving all in works. Except when it doesn't, you lose a generating of fans. Sustained success with occasional peaks works too though.

 

You have to put yourself in position to take advantage of good fortune. Predicting which teams will be there at the end is hard enough at the beginning of the season. trying to predict 6 seasons out? More likely a firable model, imo. The idea is to have more than 25 fans still cheering by the time you are ready to win it all.

[ewen21]

 

I have been before the Chief of Staff of the Air Force.

That’s also irrelevant to this discussion.

YEs, but have you met Maverick, Goose or the Iceman?

[ewen21]

I am going to address position players to start and then in another post this weekend I will talk pitching.

 

Moving Buxton or Sano or both isn't going to bring us much at this point because they have such diminished value right now.  The only people who feel Buxton is potentially one of the best players in the game are Twins fans and employees trying to maintain a rosy outlook.  Baseball minds with nothing invested in him emotionally can think freely without being beholden to a "positive outlook".  It is pretty much just AN outlook based in what we have seen in over 1,000 plate appearances.  This is not too soon to sound the alarms.  I see red flags galore.  If he can't hit and these injuries add up he could have a very short career.  Not saying that will happen and we certainly don't want that, but can we at least acknowledge the very real possibility that he can veer off onto that track moreso than guys like Kepler and Rosario?  We like to talk about his boundless potential, but there are another set of possible outcomes far less pleasant and all too real.  I am looking at Sano and Buxton as such....

Anything they do is gravy at this point.  I have very little expectations for them at this point.  I will try to hit the reset button next year, but that will be the last time I will.  By then it is almost too late for both of them.  Another blech year from either next year and people need to stop making a case for their potential, imo.  To me, the team revolves around Rosario, Escobar and Kepler.  Escobar is a leader by example.  He can move around the field, can hit pretty well and with surprising pop, and has EVERYONE's respect.  Not a "face of the franchise" kind of guy (whatever the heck that is), but the the true definition of a ballplayer and the kind of veteran you want when you are trying to bring along young players.  Dozier and Mauer are out of the equation going forward as far as I am concerned.  The Mauer concussion saga is not something the Twins want to wonder about and answer to for 2019 and it just is unwise for Mauer at this point.  Period.  Stop. 

I liked the Morrison deal, but I have already moved on from him as well.  I think guys like Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff are the guys to be excited about.  I had a very positive view of what Polanco could do this year and beyond, but that took a hit with the suspension.  I still think he is a solid seasoned hitter.

 

As far as the Realmuto talk goes, if we were close then it makes lots of sense.  I am going to guess the Marlins will want too much for him because he is under team control and they already sold off half the team anyway.  They can just sit back and wait for a desperate offer from a bigger market team that is still in the mix.  We need a catcher, though, and Realmuto makes the lineup better INSTANTLY.  Castro is terrible.  Never have I seen such a weak hitter quibble with the umpires about the strike zone as much as he does.  I think his defense and catching intangibles aren't all that special.  At least not to the point where you can live with his bat.

 

And there is the problem with this ballclub.  There are so many players who just do not do their fair share of hitting.  I guess Sano figured he would be the slugging cleanup hitter in the middle of the lineup that hit dingers and everything would be peachy.  It has not worked out that way as he seems to not be interested in shortening his swing and using the gaps.  I am not prepared to make any moves nor do I think we should be heavily into the market during the trade deadline.  We need to find a catcher for sure.  Possibly we could have a catching tandem with Cameron Rupp and someone else.  We can let Dozier walk and install someone else in the leadoff spot.  Someone that makes sense.

 

Lot's of thoughts but no crystalized plan yet.  Still watching and wondering how things are going to shake out, but I have to say it is time to move on from Dozier and Mauer at this point.  

[Doomtints]

 

I am sorry, but I am getting tired of reading that. 

 

Seeing as it is the truth I suppose I would say you should get used to reading it.

[ewen21]

 

Seeing as it is the truth I suppose I would say you should get used to reading it.

I am not letting you off the hook without explaining how much he "doesn't have to hit"

 

In my opinion, EVERYONE has to do their fair share.  His defense doesn't absolve him from all hitting responsibility.  If you are going to keep saying that then will you please at least explain what you mean.  Are you going to go as far as to say he can hit .153, be an everyday player and we should all think that fine?

[Mike Sixel]

That's true but also not the intent. The intent was to point out there is a constant theme of maximizing the short-term. That has a tendency to mitigate sustained success in this league. Previous management aside, there are generally good reasons why GMs don't manage the way fans would like them to manage. There are alot of people here who conveniently forget the deals they insisted that were great that would have been disasters with long-term impact.

Simply not true. Last year s lot of people said to trade away Dozier, and to get prospects. Lots. I'd guess at least half.

 

The frustration for some of us is that it is never time to go in. The goal posts move every year. As a fan, that's frustrating.

[alarp33]

 

I'm sorry to say that Jason Castro doesn't factor into my plans for 2019 at all. It's unlikely in my view that he's ever a viable MLB catcher again, much less to say in 2019, much less a viable backup, much less a viable starter. It's a devastating injury and I wish our guy the best; but if the FO is making moves this season with a view that Castro is back as our starter next season, it's dereliction of duty. I'm fine with a rental for 2018, but then something more will be necessary in the off-season, making Realmuto by far the preferred option now if only the price weren't so darned high.

 

He had a menisicus repaired, what exactly do you mean by devastating injury?

[jorgenswest]

Even without injury, I don’t think it was reasonable to plan for Castro to be the main catcher at the end of his contract. There isn’t enough space in his game to continue to be the starting catcher as he declines into his 30s.

 

Ideally Garver steps in up and starts over 100 games next year with Castro getting the back up load. If Garver isn’t a solution they should aggressively go after Realmuto.

[D.C Twins]

CRAP!  Bobby Wilson is a free agent at the end of the year?!?!  Extension!!!! Lock him up now!