Going forward, what moves do you think will happen?

[howeda7]

 

Escobar is a pending free agent.
Trading him has no impact on bringing him back, or not, next year.

Sure it does. How often does a team trade a player away and then re-sign him? I can think of once in 30 years: Rick Aguilera. If you trade him, there's a 98% chance he's not on your team next year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure it does. How often does a team trade a player away and then re-sign him? I can think of once in 30 years: Rick Aguilera. If you trade him, there's a 98% chance he's not on your team next year.

Aroldis Chapman is a high-profile recent one.

 

I don't think the odds change too much with a trade -- Escobar is probably going to sign where he gets the most money / best chance to start, whether we trade him or not. Of course, trading him could be an indicator we don't want/need him to start anymore, but with Dozier and Mauer as other potential departures, I could see trading Escobar and then bringing him back in FA for 2019 (either Escobar to 2B, and/or Sano to 1B/DH and Esco to 3B again).

[jorgenswest]

the 17th best prospect in a poor farm system is something to rave about? Really. He has some upside.  How many pitchers have had upside in the low minors that  went unfulfilled?  Adrian Salcedo ring a bell?  Make a trade to get rid of the rental type  players when the season is lost. Do not expect "a haul".

 

You are really working hard to be right on this one. I don’t expect a haul but you were simply incorrect about the return for Rodney. Paddack wasn’t cash or a player to be named later.

 

I will leave you another trade day article where he slots in the Padres top 10.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/7/1/12073138/padres-acquire-rhp-chris-paddack-from-miami-for-fernando-rodney

[terrydactyls]

Here are my thoughts on Paul Molitor. First, I have been a strong supporter of Molitor ever since I watched him at the University of Minnesota. Scouts were pretty unanimous that he would never make the big leagues because his arm was too weak and he lacked power. A HOF career followed. Many people say he has a great baseball mind and that is why the Twins hired him as manager with no minor league managing experience. It reminds me of all the people I've seen in my business career who were promoted to management because they were good at their job but with no thought to their ability to lead people. Most often, a disaster followed. As big of a fan as I am, I'm afraid this might be the case with Molitor: a great player, but not a great leader. I'm not sure that a new manager needs to be Latino (as I've seen suggested), but I do think it should be someone who can relate to players in their twenties because that's what the Twins are going to be for the foreseeable future.

[beckmt]

My comment about the manager was because Twins need the Latino core to stay and be competitive in the 2020 - 2025 era.  If they cannot be extended (or do not want to be) that would speak volumes on their long term plans.  Escobar, Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Berrios, Romero.  These are players we cannot afford to lose or you may be talking rebuild sooner than you like.  

[beckmt]

As far as selling, I feel we will end up there without a big reveral of form (we still have 4 - 6 weeks to figure it out).  Problem with selling this year is from the standings their are going to be fewer buyers and they can choose to be picky.  That is a bigger issue here.

[The Wise One]

You are really working hard to be right on this one. I don’t expect a haul but you were simply incorrect about the return for Rodney. Paddack wasn’t cash or a player to be named later.

I will leave you another trade day article where he slots in the Padres top 10.https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/7/1/12073138/padres-acquire-rhp-chris-paddack-from-miami-for-fernando-rodney

When the dude makes for majors you can say that he brought back something in her crate Chapman brought back something to trade Rodney has not you can trade Rodney for a prospect but it is still in prospect and at this point it is still a suspect no matter how you look at it you can be all excited about a number 10 rated prospect a number 17 right prospect another

[howeda7]

 

Aroldis Chapman is a high-profile recent one.

I don't think the odds change too much with a trade -- Escobar is probably going to sign where he gets the most money / best chance to start, whether we trade him or not. Of course, trading him could be an indicator we don't want/need him to start anymore, but with Dozier and Mauer as other potential departures, I could see trading Escobar and then bringing him back in FA for 2019 (either Escobar to 2B, and/or Sano to 1B/DH and Esco to 3B again).

I'd rather offer Escobar an extension and trade Dozier if we're not in it at the deadline. I think 3 years at $12-15 per year would get it done and that is reasonable to me. Dozier will cost more and is less  valuable IMO. 

[beckmt]

 

I'd rather offer Escobar an extension and trade Dozier if we're not in it at the deadline. I think 3 years at $12-15 per year would get it done and that is reasonable to me. Dozier will cost more and is less  valuable IMO. 

I am guessing more in the $8 - $10 million a year for Escobar, still a nice payday.  I would not balk at a slightly higher total, but 3/$36 would have to think long and hard on it.

[beckmt]

Before we get too giddy, I do not think that cleveland will fail to solve its bullpen issues, and it is only there that they can be vulnrable. Expect a move to be made in that direction in the next couple of weeks, failing to do that will force them into a race that would last close to September, instead of a cakewalk.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'd rather offer Escobar an extension and trade Dozier if we're not in it at the deadline. I think 3 years at $12-15 per year would get it done and that is reasonable to me. Dozier will cost more and is less valuable IMO.

after last offseason, and the bigger fish available this upcoming, I’m not so sure Esco will get 12-15 per, nor am I sure Dozier will get more.

 

I think Dozier might get an extra year, but I think both could be 8-10 mil per year

[bird]

I really cringe at the "get whatever you can for..." talk.

 

There are very few ways for a FO to purposefully create separation in overall player asset value outside of lopsided trades (Escobar acquired, Nunez shipped away) and shrewd FA moves (Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Odorizzi, Pineda, Lynn). Bonus pools and other factors have made it really hard to outgun other teams in the Rule 5 and international drafts, although relationship-building in the DR still contributes added value.

 

Therefore, as a GM I'm always looking at my surpluses. That's defined as more than enough players with MLB readiness with similar projections in terms of production. For example, maybe Cave versus Grossman, Busenitz versus Duke, Littell versus Sleger, etc. But it doesn't make sense to unload players UNLESS there is an overpay in the cards.

 

I want to trade from surplus into another team's deficiency every time. That's where the motivation to overpay comes about: another team's "desperation". And you take advantage of the inherently understood discount related to closeness to MLB and uncertainty to capture, in theory at least, a prospect whose eventual ceiling is higher than the player they covet for today's purposes.

 

We just have to hope some players perform well enough to be attractive at the deadline here, and hope that Falvey is as sharp as I am.

[gocgo]

 

I really cringe at the "get whatever you can for..." talk.

 

There are very few ways for a FO to purposefully create separation in overall player asset value outside of lopsided trades (Escobar acquired, Nunez shipped away) and shrewd FA moves (Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Odorizzi, Pineda, Lynn). Bonus pools and other factors have made it really hard to outgun other teams in the Rule 5 and international drafts, although relationship-building in the DR still contributes added value.

 

Therefore, as a GM I'm always looking at my surpluses. That's defined as more than enough players with MLB readiness with similar projections in terms of production. For example, maybe Cave versus Grossman, Busenitz versus Duke, Littell versus Sleger, etc. But it doesn't make sense to unload players UNLESS there is an overpay in the cards.

 

I want to trade from surplus into another team's deficiency every time. That's where the motivation to overpay comes about: another team's "desperation". And you take advantage of the inherently understood discount related to closeness to MLB and uncertainty to capture, in theory at least, a prospect whose eventual ceiling is higher than the player they covet for today's purposes.

 

We just have to hope some players perform well enough to be attractive at the deadline here, and hope that Falvey is as sharp as I am.

Absolutely agree.   Also, that match made in heaven that your described doesn't come about that often, and even when it does, teams are hesitant to pull the trigger.  For example, years ago, we thought we had a surplus at catcher with a perrenial All-Star behind the plate.  Wilson Ramos was held back in the minors with no hope of breaking in to the majors.  We dealt him for Matt Capps because of a perceived surplus while we had a perceived need for a closer with Joe Nathan out.  At the time, it seemed like a trade that made sense.  We all know the series of events that turned a perceived surplus into a deficit while Matt Capps turned out to be an average at best closer for us.

[Kelly Vance]

Twins have a bunch of middle infielders in the system that are major leaguers. But none of them will hit 40 dingers.  I will miss Dozier. Eduardo is likely to stay if offered a good enough deal. I would say the same about Brian, but I think all the trade talk made him want to prove he is a big dog. He did. But with all the middle infield talent coming up, he is not going to get the long extension. Too bad.  Eduardo will not have such lofty expectations. 

 

I'd extend the entire OF. Buck supposedly turned down an extension, but if handled right, it could be done. 

Rosario is swiftly becoming the heart of this team.

 

I hope Joe comes back strong. 

[Vanimal46]

Let's wait until some of the middle infielders get out of A ball before declaring them major leaguers. There's absolutely a need for Dozier now and 3 years from now.

[Doomtints]

I'm honestly surprised by this thread.

 

4-5 years ago when someone said the Twins were terrible and needed to sell they got their heads chewed off. "They're good, don't be negative" was heard a lot. Meyer was awesome, Florimon was awesome, what a steal Nolasco was, Arcias' gonna rock, etc. etc. etc. And the manager? He was great.

 

Unlike those teams, this team actually is pretty good. They are underperforming. Don't sell anything right now, don't even consider it.

 

The Indians hovered around .500 most of last year along with the Twins before rattling off a 22 game winning streak. The Twins won't do that -- but this team could pull off a 12 game winning streak without surprising anybody. Maybe more than once!

[Mike Sixel]

Well, the winning streak now is 4 after today's comeback. It all may end tonight but the team seem to be waking up at the plate.

 

The big hole on the team is at Catcher. Garver should be the backup playing 30-35% of the time with Wilson in AAA. Wilson is a classic 3rd catcher - good glove, no bat. Astudillo looks like the best thing we have in AAA unless Rupp (signed yesterday?) is better. Rupp does have some MLB experience as a better hitter than Wilson, I don't know much about his defense.

 

If the upgrade we need is not presently of the system, and it looks like it probably isn't, I like the three options given in the other thread. My vote would be to try to pick up Realmuto and I would be willing to trade Sano for him straight up. We give up the guy with a higher ceiling return for a guy who's more extablished and plays a premium position. They get a guy who could someday be a 40 or 50 home runs year guy on a bad team and put some excitement into the team. Miami also get some additional years of control. I think it's a fair deal, although Miami might disagree since Sano is off to such a poor start this year.

Insane.

[USAFChief]

 

Insane.

Is it?

 

Sano:  .212/.282/.449 heading into today. Enormous K numbers. Health issues. Weight issues.

 

I wouldn't do it, but it's not insane.

[Mike Sixel]

Is it?

 

Sano: .212/.282/.449 heading into today. Enormous K numbers. Health issues. Weight issues.

 

I wouldn't do it, but it's not insane.

We are going to use one third of a year's stats now? Come on.

[Mike Sixel]

It's also insane because you now have no third baseman..... But mostly because you can get him for prospects....

[USAFChief]

 

We are going to use one third of a year's stats now? Come on.

You're going to ignore the rest of the post, or the trend lines? Come on.

 

But I agree, if you're going to go get Realmuto, prospects is the way to get it done. Start with Gonsalves. 

[howeda7]

 

after last offseason, and the bigger fish available this upcoming, I’m not so sure Esco will get 12-15 per, nor am I sure Dozier will get more.

I think Dozier might get an extra year, but I think both could be 8-10 mil per year

Escobar might stay in the $8-10 range. I don't think Dozier will unless he doesn't pick it up the second half like normal. 

[Doomtints]

Who cares if the catcher can't hit? His defense is adequate.

 

Besides, he is hitting much better than the star catcher was before he got injured.

 

The key to the Twins taking it to the next level is Buxton turning things around. Forget about the catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

Who cares if the catcher can't hit? His defense is adequate.

 

Besides, he is hitting much better than the star catcher was before he got injured.

 

The key to the Twins taking it to the next level is Buxton turning things around. Forget about the catcher.

So, until Buxton his, ignore every other issue? I have never understood this argument on this site.

[Tomj14]

 

Insane.

The Marlins would trade Sano straight up for JT, then turn around a trade him for more than they could get for JT.

As much as the Twins fans are down on Sano, he is 24, has a career .831 OPS and while is OBP is low this year he has a career .342.

 

Imagine if you posted Sano's numbers without his name and said they Twins have a chance to trade for him, what we would offer. I am guessing more than we are willing to offer for JT. IMO

[ThejacKmp]

 

Who cares if the catcher can't hit? His defense is adequate.

 

Besides, he is hitting much better than the star catcher was before he got injured.

 

The key to the Twins taking it to the next level is Buxton turning things around. Forget about the catcher.

 

I don't think that anyone thinks of Castro as a star catcher. I don't think Castro thinks of Castro as a star catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

The Marlins would trade Sano straight up for JT, then turn around a trade him for more than they could get for JT.

As much as the Twins fans are down on Sano, he is 24, has a career .831 OPS and while is OBP is low this year he has a career .342.

 

Imagine if you posted Sano's numbers without his name and said they Twins have a chance to trade for him, what we would offer. I am guessing more than we are willing to offer for JT. IMO

Preach it!

[ThejacKmp]

 

You're going to ignore the rest of the post, or the trend lines? Come on.

 

But I agree, if you're going to go get Realmuto, prospects is the way to get it done. Start with Gonsalves. 

 

You don't trade Sano because you're very likely to be trading low. And because the weight issues are mostly a media overreaction. And because he's only 25 years old. The same people screaming "Trade Sano" will be complaining if he turns into another Big Papi.

 

Anyways, the Marlins likely don't want Sano, he's about to get more expensive and doesn't fit their timeline. They want prospects they can control for awhile.

 

Realmuto is a good catcher but he's not that good and the price he'll command is outrageous. The Marlins have no need to trade him unless they get blown away so that price isn't dropping - it's never bad for a team to hold onto a veteran catcher when they're bringing up youths. 

 

The Twins have Castro and Garver next year and that should be good. Shop in the one-year bargain bin for guys like Lucroy who paper over the hole this year.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Have people saying Realmuto isn't all that.... Have you looked at the last few years of catcher lists, and whose in the top three?

[USAFChief]

Who cares if the catcher can't hit? His defense is adequate.

 

Besides, he is hitting much better than the star catcher was before he got injured.

 

The key to the Twins taking it to the next level is Buxton turning things around. Forget about the catcher.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you're also someone who lists the depth of other team's lineups as a reason the Twins arent contenders.

 

Every lineup spot comes up to hit. Every one filled by a weak hitter costs you runs.