Article: Twins Considered Favorites To Sign Lance Lynn

[TheLeviathan]

 

And then he signs for 2/20 with another team because that is where his valuation is coming in.

 

Why would he ever take 2/20 in March?  It's an obvious lowball with no chance of being accepted.  

 

Unless you secretly want to make Lance Lynn feel bad about not signing his QO, I don't see any point to it.

[AWOLNATION_11]

 

Why would he ever take 2/20 in March?  It's an obvious lowball with no chance of being accepted.  

 

Unless you secretly want to make Lance Lynn feel bad about not signing his QO, I don't see any point to it.

 

I hear you.   Obviously it isn't an offer commensurate with historical standards for a pitcher of his caliber, but this offseason hasn't really gone the same as in the past either.   Morrison's deal probably would have been seen as insulting in prior years too given he's coming off a 38-homer season, but that is where the market is these days and the Twins signed him because they made the offer.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I hear you.   Obviously it isn't an offer commensurate with historical standards for a pitcher of his caliber, but this offseason hasn't really gone the same as in the past either.   Morrison's deal probably would have been seen as insulting in prior years too given he's coming off a 38-homer season, but that is where the market is these days and the Twins signed him because they made the offer.

 

A fair point, however there is some precedent for low offers for power hitters and I'm guessing the teams exchanged numbers closer to what was agreed on.

 

By the swiftness of the denial, it seems the Twins either badly misread what Lynn wanted or went ahead with an offer despite that.  Not sure either is a good thing.

[Dantes929]

 

I'm just not buying it that the Twins were pushing hard to sign him and then came in with this low-ball insulting offer.  

Man,  I really wish someone would insult me like that.

[old nurse]

 

Things that work against Lynn:

 

• He is on the declining side of his career
• He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
• He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
• He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.  If/when  that does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
• The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.  If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.  He comes off a lost season (2016).  They know his medicals.
• He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
• 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
• Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.  That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.  It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.  That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.

He should had taken the money (QO) and run...

Twins were a revenue receiving team and thus would give up their third highest pick.  Worst case scenario is a late second rounder, probably a third rounder depending on competitive balance picks.  For every good player selected then, there will be far more busts or middle of rotation pitchers.

[jkcarew]

 

By the swiftness of the denial, it seems the Twins either badly misread what Lynn wanted or went ahead with an offer despite that.  Not sure either is a good thing.

It remains to be seen whether the Twins or Lynn did the misreading.  And, while I would expect the Twins to be 'aware' of what Lynn wanted, I would almost never expect a club to match that with their initial offer.  Especially, given how the market has been this off-season.  It sounds like Lynn made the decision to not engage and negotiate based on the Twins initial offer.  Time will tell how much of a 'low ball' that offer was.

[prouster]

Why would he ever take 2/20 in March? It's an obvious lowball with no chance of being accepted.

 

Unless you secretly want to make Lance Lynn feel bad about not signing his QO, I don't see any point to it.

Maybe they way to think of it is that it's like initiating trade talks by asking for the other team's whole farm system. Not a realistic offer, but a starting point.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not sure I understand the logic of using a high FIP as an argument to stay away from Lynn. He would be coming to a team with one of the best defenses in MLB. Would seem to suggest that he would benefit from an elite defense.

But wouldn't any/ every pitcher benefit from that defense? So, you'd still want the guy who puts less balls in play.

[puckstopper1]

Now if his first name was Freddie instead of Lance, I'd have more interest...

[BJames]

After signing Hughes and Nolasco I don't want anything to do with so-so 3-5 pitchers.  We need to sign guys that would fill the ACE or #2 spot on the best of teams.  If not then keep the $$$$ and go with Slegers, Romero, Gonsalves and Littell. 

[Doomtints]

Last summer, Kraft/Heinz made an offer to buy Unilever. The offer was so pathetically low that not only did Unilever reject the offer, they told Kraft to never call them ever again. No negotiations, no conversations. The offer was offensive to them and the response came from their legal department. (If it matters, the offer was for $143B).

 

This new front office still needs to learn a few things about business. Cracking open the business section of a newspaper once in a while might be a good start.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Doomtints

[KirbyDome89]

There's a difference between working to get a good deal, and flat out lowballing. Also, insulting offers do exist. 

 

I've spent a decent amount of timing buy/selling motorcycles and parts. I never offer the asking price, nobody does, but I'm always aware of market value for bikes/parts and I'm careful to make sure that my offers, while always slightly in my favor, aren't egregiously one sided. Say I offer $3.5K cash and leave myself wiggle room up to $3.7K in negotiations before I bow out on a bike listed at $4K. That's very different than offering $1,200 or some other number well below the bike's value. Honestly, those are the kind of lowball offers you receive via text because the individual is either too embarrassed to ask over the phone/in person, or they know it's a long shot and they don't want to waste their time talking. At that point I ask the same question raised above; why bother? 

 

The market this winter is clearly depressed. I don't think there's anything wrong with the Twins trying to take advantage of that, in fact I think they should, but to me 2/20 feels more like a text offer, and Lynn obviously felt the same way. 

[Doomtints]

 

I doubt it was spitballing either.   I'm sure the front office has done their valuations on these guys and that is where they were/are with Lynn.

 

I disagree. They can see he is still a free agent after the preseason is in full swing. They tried to sucker him, hoping he is feeling desperate.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Doomtints

[David HK]

There's a lot of talk about Lynn being a league-average type of pitcher---  

 

BUT- a league-average pitcher who's been to a World Series, and on a perennial pennant-contending team.  I'd take him in a hearbeat, with this club.

[Thrylos]

 

Last summer, Kraft/Heinz made an offer to buy Unilever. The offer was so pathetically low that not only did Unilever reject the offer, they told Kraft to never call them ever again. No negotiations, no conversations. The offer was offensive to them and the response came from their legal department. (If it matters, the offer was for $143B).

 

This new front office still needs to learn a few things about business. Cracking open the business section of a newspaper once in a while might be a good start.

 

Based on the fact that the turned the worst team in the Twins' history in Minnesota into the postseason, just in one season, I'd say that the front office knows more about what they are doing than it's doubters.

 

Cannot challenge the facts, because, unlike business value, they are not subjective.

 

They got a bargain on LoMo.  They are looking for more, but they are not and should not overpay for what they think is mediocrity.

[TheLeviathan]

No one is faulting them for not overpaying.  They are welcome to walk away from Lance Lynn and what it would take to sign him.

 

Just don't extend a needless offer with no chance of success before you walk away.  If you're interested enough to talk to the player, that can't endear them going forward.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Giving that offer seems insulting.

I wish someone would insult me with a 20 million offer for my next 2 years of work.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I wish someone would insult me with a 20 million offer for my next 2 years of work.

 

Learn how to pitch.  Especially with your left hand if possible, I'm sure someone will!

[prouster]

I don't see why anyone besides Lance Lynn and his agent should fret much over the Twins offer.

[yarnivek1972]

But wouldn't any/ every pitcher benefit from that defense? So, you'd still want the guy who puts less balls in play.

It depends on what the team needs IMO. If your team already has a lot of strikeout pitchers, you might want a different type of pitcher to give hitters a different look. Also, strikeout pitchers tend to throw a lot of pitches. That leads to shorter outings. When Phil Hughes and Brad Radke back in the day were at their best they had a lot of balls put in play, got quick outs and had long outings. A guy that can pitch deep into games has value too, especially in today’s game when so few pitchers do so.

[nicksaviking]

There's a lot of talk about Lynn being a league-average type of pitcher---

 

BUT- a league-average pitcher who's been to a World Series, and on a perennial pennant-contending team. I'd take him in a hearbeat, with this club.

If that's the goal why not just sign John Lackey for $4M and one year?*

 

*Note: That was not an endorsement to sign John Lackey.

[jimbo92107]

"The Twins still only have 40/1 odds at winning the World Series, per the same article mentioned above."

 

My god, you're saying there are 40 other teams more likely to win the Series than the Twins? I can see the other MLB teams, and maybe the Patriots and Eagles, but 40??

 

Things are even worse than I thought. My god. ;-)

[David HK]

 

If that's the goal why not just sign John Lackey for $4M and one year?*

*Note: That was not an endorsement to sign John Lackey.

Heh.... nor was it take as such! 

[Riverbrian]

I'm always curious on how and why information is leaked/released. Curious... maybe more suspicious. 

 

I always assume the parties involved are professionals and know how to keep a lid on something if needed. so if it leaks... I assume it is intentional. 

 

Who would want 2/20 out to the public?

 

 

[nicksaviking]

I'm always curious on how and why information is leaked/released. Curious... maybe more suspicious. 

 

I always assume the parties involved are professionals and know how to keep a lid on something if needed. so if it leaks... I assume it is intentional. 

 

Who would want 2/20 out to the public?

It would appear......absolutely no one? Maybe it's the Russians.

[kab21]

 

Twins were a revenue receiving team and thus would give up their third highest pick.  Worst case scenario is a late second rounder, probably a third rounder depending on competitive balance picks.  For every good player selected then, there will be far more busts or middle of rotation pitchers.

Yes, the Twins wouldn't have to give up a high draft pick to sign Lynn. 

I am all for a 15M/yr deal for 1 or 2 (and possibly 3) years. He isn't a great (1 or 2) but he is probably a very good pitcher. The reason I say probably is that his FIP/xFIP is pretty bad but I think he could improve next season in his second season back from TJ and potentially come close to being the pitcher he was before TJ. The downside is that his results (ERA) matches his 2017 FIP (no improvement) and he isn't very good. At that point the damage is minimal on a 1-2 yr deal. There is risk but my confidence in Lynn would be the 2nd highest (behind Berrios) of Twins pitchers entering the season.

[The Wise One]

 

Things that work against Lynn:

 

• He is on the declining side of his career
• He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
• He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
• He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.  If/when  that does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
• The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.  If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.  He comes off a lost season (2016).  They know his medicals.
• He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
• 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
• Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.  That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.  It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.  That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.

He should had taken the money (QO) and run...

Non-Disqualified Revenue Sharing Payees: Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Astros, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax.  If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick.  These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=MIN&draft_round=3&query_type=franch_round

 

I don't see a pitcher of Berrios's caliber here except for everybody's favorite trade bait, Brian Duensing.  Some great catchers on the list

[The Wise One]

 

If that's the goal why not just sign John Lackey for $4M and one year?*

*Note: That was not an endorsement to sign John Lackey.

If Lynn is a league average pitcher that would make Lackey a replacement level pitcher 

[The Wise One]

Everybody thought the big free agents would get big contracts. Nobody is happier for that mentality than Chatwood, Minor, Garcia and Cashner. All signed for about what any of the "top" starters are going to get.  When a 200 ip as a starter becomes a rarity and brittle becomes synonymous with starter,  then there should also be a scarcity in the ranks of top dollar contracts.  Clubs expected Cobb, Lynn, Arrietta and Darvish to hold out for long term high dollar contracts.  1-3 year deals looked better, even if overpriced

Edited March 9, 2018 by The Wise One

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There's a lot of talk about Lynn being a league-average type of pitcher---

 

BUT- a league-average pitcher who's been to a World Series, and on a perennial pennant-contending team. I'd take him in a hearbeat, with this club.

the team was 27th in MLB in pitching last year, league average is quite the step up