When do the Twins cut bait with Phil Hughes?

[h2oface]

Hopefully, this spring will save the Twins from wasting innings in the regular season on Phil. It is a sad story now, but it is what it is. Time's up!

[laloesch]

Hopefully, this spring will save the Twins from wasting innings in the regular season on Phil. It is a sad story now, but it is what it is. Time's up!

I've seen enough. I only wish the best for Phil, but how much longer are they going to keep trotting him out there with performances like this?

[jorgenswest]

he’ll have 3 more appearances I assume? Does Rochester line up Mejia for the same schedule?

The first time a 5th starter is needed is April 11. The Red Wings open April 6 so their opening day starter lines up. Chattanooga starts April 5 so I suppose someone who pitched one of the first two games there would line up.

 

If Hughes is out, the Twins could go with an extra position players for the first 10 games and then call up a pitcher for April 11.

 

The next need for a 5th starter is April 24 so Mejia could return to AAA and start a game before returning. They would have to call up a different position player for the second stretch with the 10 day rule.

 

If they judge Duffey to be their best 5th starter option. They could do the same with him keeping him stretched out for his starts.

 

I don’t know who gives them the best shot at winning those two games (Astros and Yankees) but whether it is Hughes, Mejia, Romero, Duffey or other they aren’t likely the favorite to win those games. If Hughes starts and loses both games it will be hard to argue that he cost the team two games in the win column.

[notoriousgod71]

This is stupid. It was obvious three years ago that Hughes should not be on this roster in 2018 and yet we drag it out due to financial reasons. Thanks, Terry.

 

Just cut him loose and take the monetary loss rather than the standings loss along with the financial loss.

[slash129]

Well, if the Twins can 7 IP from each of the starters in their starts before 4/11, they can just throw a bullpen game.  Hughes and Duffey each get a run through the order and then turn it over to the real pen.

[Mike Sixel]

Hughes should not be on the roster of a playoff contender. We knew that last year, we know that now.

[jimmer]

 

This is stupid. It was obvious three years ago that Hughes should not be on this roster in 2018 and yet we drag it out due to financial reasons. Thanks, Terry.

 

Just cut him loose and take the monetary loss rather than the standings loss along with the financial loss.

Last year the new FO was in charge.  Hughes stayed on the roster.  If he stays on the roster this year, it'll be because of the new FO. Unless you think Pohlad is making them keep Hughes, in which case, what makes you think Pohlad didn't have Ryan do the same?

 

Yes, by extending Hughes, Ryan made a very obvious and predictable mistake (not the first FO to do so), but he's not here any more.  

[jimmer]

 

Hughes should not be on the roster of a playoff contender. We knew that last year, we know that now.

We knew that way before last year.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I don’t know who gives them the best shot at winning those two games (Astros and Yankees) but whether it is Hughes, Mejia, Romero, Duffey or other they aren’t likely the favorite to win those games. If Hughes starts and loses both games it will be hard to argue that he cost the team two games in the win column.

They might not be favored in any of the other games in either of those series. That doesn't mean they won't throw their best available pitcher and try to get a win. I'm not sure why the two starts in question should be any different. 

[jorgenswest]

They might not be favored in any of the other games in either of those series. That doesn't mean they won't throw their best available pitcher and try to get a win. I'm not sure why the two starts in question should be any different.

 

They should seek their best option. If a minor leaguer, I was arguing that it is quite possible to throw that best option. I also realize that the difference between Hughes and the best option in those two games won’t change the win probability significantly.

[puckstopper1]

Hughes was just trying to match Ohtani's pitching line from yesterday...

[KirbyDome89]

 

I also realize that the difference between Hughes and the best option in those two games won’t change the win probability significantly.

So tank those games? 

 

It's Hughes vs. Mejia or another option to start those games. The opponent and win probability are irrelevant. 

[jorgenswest]

 

So tank those games? 

 

It's Hughes vs. Mejia or another option to start those games. The opponent and win probability are irrelevant. 

 

How is it even possible that you did not see the first part of my comment? Please take great caution whenever selectively quoting. The original is below. Note the first sentence.

 

 

They should seek their best option. If a minor leaguer, I was arguing that it is quite possible to throw that best option. I also realize that the difference between Hughes and the best option in those two games won’t change the win probability significantly.

 

My point of the last sentence is for those who claim that starting Hughes will for those starts as a 5th starter is equivalent to costing the Twins every one of those games in the win/loss column. I absolutely advocate for the Twins using the best option. I also argue that the win probability difference between Hughes and the Mejia (or other) over those two games is not very large. 

[jimbo92107]

 

A couple of the earned runs were a fly ball lost in the sun that went for a ground rule double. He was still awful and had awful defense behind him. The Pirates did not a have a good lineup. He gave up two solo home runs and walked the pitcher prior to the ground rule double. He was touching 90. Looked good in the second inning with three strike outs. It is hard to imagine he will be the fifth starter but he will get a few more looks.

Touching 90 won't cut it unless Hughes is cutting it left and right like Gregg Maddux. Hughes gets hammered unless his heat is over 92. He was an excellent pitcher at 96, good at 94, but below that speed, hitters catch up to his heat, and his off speed stuff isn't good enough to survive six innings. 

 

Unless he magically finds another four mph, Twins need to cut bait. Promote Mejia, whatever. Hughes is done. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

How is it even possible that you did not see the first part of my comment? Please take great caution whenever selectively quoting. The original is below. Note the first sentence.

 

 

My point of the last sentence is for those who claim that starting Hughes will for those starts as a 5th starter is equivalent to costing the Twins every one of those games in the win/loss column. I absolutely advocate for the Twins using the best option. I also argue that the win probability difference between Hughes and the Mejia (or other) over those two games is not very large. 

That isn't selective quoting. You're literally implying that because the Twins won't be favored in those games, the differences between all those guys vying for that 5th spot are insignificant, and therefore a cost can't be associated with whichever way the decision goes. There is no "best option," if, as you say, the difference between the pitchers won't change anything significantly. Those are two contradicting claims.

 

Either Hughes is equivalent to Mejia and/or all other options, or as you contend, one pitcher is the best option, in which case failing to give that guy the 5th spot costs this team a greater opportunity to win those games. Period 

 

Idk if you're talking about win probability as a statistic, or if you're setting personal odds. If you're trying to use actual win probability to analyze individual performance then good luck.

[Major League Ready]

 

That isn't selective quoting. You're literally implying that because the Twins won't be favored in those games, the differences between all those guys vying for that 5th spot are insignificant, and therefore a cost can't be associated with whichever way the decision goes. There is no "best option," if, as you say, the difference between the pitchers won't change anything significantly. Those are two contradicting claims.

 

Either Hughes is equivalent to Mejia and/or all other options, or as you contend, one pitcher is the best option, in which case failing to give that guy the 5th spot costs this team a greater opportunity to win those games. Period 

 

Idk if you're talking about win probability as a statistic, or if you're setting personal odds. If you're trying to use actual win probability to analyze individual performance then good luck.

 

It appears to me that you are making an assumption Jorgenwest's primary point or logic is based on the Twins not being favored in any of those games. That's not at all how it reads to me. He stated the odds of the Twins winning will not change significantly regardless of it's Hughes or any of the other options. That does not even remotely suggest the nature of the argument is that the Twins won't be favored in those games. At least that's how I read it.

[Vanimal46]

I said this a few pages ago. I'm not going to be happy until Hughes is completely out of the picture in this organization.

[Vanimal46]

Touching 90 won't cut it unless Hughes is cutting it left and right like Gregg Maddux. Hughes gets hammered unless his heat is over 92. He was an excellent pitcher at 96, good at 94, but below that speed, hitters catch up to his heat, and his off speed stuff isn't good enough to survive six innings.

 

Unless he magically finds another four mph, Twins need to cut bait. Promote Mejia, whatever. Hughes is done.

Agree 100%. A 90 MPH flat fastball is batting practice for a professional hitter.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Last year the new FO was in charge.  Hughes stayed on the roster.  If he stays on the roster this year, it'll be because of the new FO. Unless you think Pohlad is making them keep Hughes, in which case, what makes you think Pohlad didn't have Ryan do the same?

 

Yes, by extending Hughes, Ryan made a very obvious and predictable mistake (not the first FO to do so), but he's not here any more.  

 

Extending anyone one year into their mutli-year contract is ridiculous and 100% Terry's fault.

[Jham]

86 to 88? Wasn't he around 92 earlier this spring? Velocity for some pitchers doesn't come back until into real games. (E.g. Joe Nathan)

 

If he doesn't get the velocity back, diagnose tired arm & continued thoracic outlet syndrome and send to the 60 day dl. He's under contract for 2 years. It's entirely possible he's done. But it's not that unlikely he could bounce back once 100% or develop a knuckle ball.

[Vanimal46]

86 to 88? Wasn't he around 92 earlier this spring? Velocity for some pitchers doesn't come back until into real games. (E.g. Joe Nathan)

 

If he doesn't get the velocity back, diagnose tired arm & continued thoracic outlet syndrome and send to the 60 day dl. He's under contract for 2 years. It's entirely possible he's done. But it's not that unlikely he could bounce back once 100% or develop a knuckle ball.

I don't think he was ever at 92 earlier this spring. Lavelle had a tweet from his outing before this that he was hitting 89-90 MPH on the gun.

 

This is probably the new reality for Hughes. He's got a long way to go in order to reinvent himself. Somehow he needs more movement on his pitches, or dedicate the next 2 years learning to throw a knuckleball.

[Riverbrian]

Middle Ground gets lost on the internet from time to time. 

 

I don't feel that choosing Hughes is like licking dirt and choosing Mejia is a Filet Mignon. 

 

 

[adorduan]

 

86 to 88? Wasn't he around 92 earlier this spring? Velocity for some pitchers doesn't come back until into real games. (E.g. Joe Nathan)

If he doesn't get the velocity back, diagnose tired arm & continued thoracic outlet syndrome and send to the 60 day dl. He's under contract for 2 years. It's entirely possible he's done. But it's not that unlikely he could bounce back once 100% or develop a knuckle ball.

That is what the Pirate broadcast was showing.  They didn't show the speed of every pitch and I don't know if their gun is considered "slow" or "fast".  I guess i could go back and watch it and log every pitch if you want.

[Mr. Brooks]

How is it even possible that you did not see the first part of my comment? Please take great caution whenever selectively quoting. The original is below. Note the first sentence.

 

 

My point of the last sentence is for those who claim that starting Hughes will for those starts as a 5th starter is equivalent to costing the Twins every one of those games in the win/loss column. I absolutely advocate for the Twins using the best option. I also argue that the win probability difference between Hughes and the Mejia (or other) over those two games is not very large.

I disagree.

Does Mejia have things to work on? Of course. But he was a league average starter last year. And he was a rookie, so I'd expect some improvement this year.

I think expecting anything close to that from Hughes is wishful thinking, and I think the win probability gap between Mejia and Hughes is enormous.

[jimmer]

 

Extending anyone one year into their mutli-year contract is ridiculous and 100% Terry's fault.

What did you think I meant in the post of mine you quoted when I wrote:

 

'Yes, by extending Hughes, Ryan made a very obvious and predictable mistake (not the first FO to do so), but he's not here any more.'

 

Does it look like I blamed anyone else for the extension? I was very vocal in my disgust on that decision that moment we knew it had been made; HOWEVER...

 

My issue is with Terry being blamed for Hughes still being on the roster.  Ryan left the GM chair midseason of 2016.  Hughes still being on the team, instead of being released since then, falls on new management.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180317&content_id=268951976&vkey=news_min&c_id=min

 

Bullpen bound?

[adorduan]

Here are Hughes pitches on Saturday according to the Pirates broadcast, ns means no speed was shown for that pitch

 

Inning 1

ns

86

84

87

87 HR

86

89

81

 

Inning 2

NS

NS

85

77

ns

83

76

81

80

84

75

86

78

 

Inning 3

ns

ns

87

81

81

87

87

76

80

83

86

79

80

87

88

79

76

ns

88

87

ns

ns

 

Inning 4ns

ns

ns

78

76

86

ns HR to center

ns

78

ns

76

79

86

86

ns

86

77

74 WP

ns

83

ns

81

87

87

82

80

83

84

80

 

[Twodogs]

http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180317&content_id=268951976&vkey=news_min&c_id=min

 

Bullpen bound?

I'm not really convinced that that article says that he is for sure bullpen bound? It said he is going to remain on a starters schedule for the remainder of spring training. Also, I don't get that if he pitches so horrible why would the Twins put him in a mop up/long relief role? Wouldn't you still want one of your best 13 pitchers to be on the roster?? I mean if he is toast, why keep him on the roster at all?? Bring up one of the young guys to be the long man in the pen?

 

Idk, it just seems to me that Phil will get probably 3 starts at the beginning of the season to see what he can do. If for some reason he can average 5 - 6 innings and 3 - 4 earned runs in those 5 - 6 innings, (which is not good by the way), he will probably get another 3 starts. Until he completely melts down he will probably be in the rotation until Santana comes back. Basically if he can throw one or two quality starts in those first 3 games he will get a few more. But if he is so bad that he shouldn't be starting, (which I am on board with everyone else on), then why would they want him as a long man? Just cut him, I say give him a shot for the rest of Spring training and if he does ok give him a couple of starts. But if you aren't confident in him, just get rid of him, let him try and pick up with someone else.

[Twodogs]

Here are Hughes pitches on Saturday according to the Pirates broadcast, ns means no speed was shown for that pitch

 

Inning 1

ns

86

84

87

87 HR

86

89

81

 

Inning 2

NS

NS

85

77

ns

83

76

81

80

84

75

86

78

 

Inning 3

ns

ns

87

81

81

87

87

76

80

83

86

79

80

87

88

79

76

ns

88

87

ns

ns

 

Inning 4ns

ns

ns

78

76

86

ns HR to center

ns

78

ns

76

79

86

86

ns

86

77

74 WP

ns

83

ns

81

87

87

82

80

83

84

80

So he is topping out at 87 - 88. I see there was one pitch that hit 89, but good luck with that. I saw a week or so ago he was throwing 89 - 90 so that's probably not a good sign that he is slowing down.

[KirbyDome89]

 

It appears to me that you are making an assumption Jorgenwest's primary point or logic is based on the Twins not being favored in any of those games. That's not at all how it reads to me. He stated the odds of the Twins winning will not change significantly regardless of it's Hughes or any of the other options. That does not even remotely suggest the nature of the argument is that the Twins won't be favored in those games. At least that's how I read it. 

Since win probability was brought up multiple times I don't think it was assumption to believe it was part of the argument. HIs point was that neither Hughes nor Mejia move the needle much. My contention was that he's using the wrong gauge.