When do the Twins cut bait with Phil Hughes?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, but if it's less than 10 days between starts, he's not really missing out on much development, is he?

It's an okay idea in theory but in practice, it's much harder to line up starts between teams that way.

[Vanimal46]

Sure, but if it's less than 10 days between starts, he's not really missing out on much development, is he?

 

Or, alternate sending down Mejia and Slegers/Jorge. They all give you at least a moderate chance to win, unlike Hughes.

Personally I'd rather see that rotation of pitchers over seeing Hughes pitch at all.

 

I don't believe they're going with a 4 man rotation. Because of financial reasons, Hughes is in the rotation. And we're going to witness at least 5 starts where we pray he gives up less than 4 runs in 5 innings.

 

Not exactly inspiring for a team I think is an AL Central title contender.

[Riverbrian]

I'm crazy but I still feel it's possible that Hughes won't be as good as we want him to be. 

 

Nor... As Bad as we think he will be. 

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think it would be that difficult to plan for Mejia the 5th start role from AAA. In fact it is almost ideal through the first two starts. The space between those is greater than 10 days. Give him a start in AAA, call him up, send him back for another start in AAA and call him up. He is stretched out for his starts. He stays on schedule.

 

Seems like a good way to utilize options and gain benefit from their depth in starting pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t think it would be that difficult to plan for Mejia the 5th start role from AAA. In fact it is almost ideal through the first two starts. The space between those is greater than 10 days. Give him a start in AAA, call him up, send him back for another start in AAA and call him up. He is stretched out for his starts. He stays on schedule.

 

Seems like a good way to utilize options and gain benefit from their depth in starting pitchers.

Wouldn't you leave him in major league camp longer, though? No benefit to sending him out now -- he'd be a month removed from facing MLB hitters when he comes back to start under your plan.

[jorgenswest]

Wouldn't you leave him in major league camp longer, though? No benefit to sending him out now -- he'd be a month removed from facing MLB hitters when he comes back to start under your plan.

It could be a missed opportunity. It is possible that moving him helps get him on schedule for that first April start. I guess if he or Romero line up for that date it stays a possibility.

[snepp]

 

I'm crazy but I still feel it's possible that Hughes won't be as good as we want him to be. 

 

Nor... As Bad as we think he will be. 

 

I've thought that about our #5 (...and #4...and #3...) starters too often the last few years.

 

 

The burn still lingers. I fully expect a complete disaster from Hughes, and will be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is possible that moving him helps get him on schedule for that first April start.

I'm sorry, this still doesn't seem possible to me. That first start is a month away, and they presumably aren't skipping the 5th starter during spring training. Besides, they can and do use MLB players in intrasquad / minor league spring training games, so he could stay in MLB camp even if they wanted to get more innings for both him and Hughes.

 

Occam's Razor suggests that they have already decided that Hughes is getting the first crack at the 5th starter spot. Nothing else really makes sense at this point, for Mejia and especially Romero.

[Riverbrian]

 

I've thought that about our #5 (...and #4...and #3...) starters too often the last few years.

 

 

The burn still lingers. I fully expect a complete disaster from Hughes, and will be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.

 

I know it does... It clearly worries you... I hope you get some sleep soon. 

 

http://a360-wp-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/sleeprev/2014/11/narcolepsynightmare-466x278.jpg

 

 

[jud6312]

I think we can all hope and pray that something changes in these last few weeks and the FO office realizes that "lost money" is a better alternative than essentially handing 4-5 games over to the opposition while they get "one last look" at Terry Ryan's parting gift to the organization.

 

But the likelihood is that Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Et. al won't be gracing us with their presence at Target Field until the weather warms up. Barring injuries, of course.

 

The best we can hope for at this point is that "he felt a twinge" shows up in one of the post-game stories following one of Phil's next outings.

[The Wise One]

 

I'm crazy but I still feel it's possible that Hughes won't be as good as we want him to be. 

 

Nor... As Bad as we think he will be. 

In that train of thought

 

Lynn won't be as bad as some people think nor as good as the Twins need him to be

Mejia won't be as good as some people think he can be nor as bad as last year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mejia won't be as good as some people think he can be nor as bad as last year.

Except... Mejia wasn’t bad last year.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think we can all hope and pray that something changes in these last few weeks and the FO office realizes that "lost money" is a better alternative than essentially handing 4-5 games over to the opposition while they get "one last look" at Terry Ryan's parting gift to the organization.

 

But the likelihood is that Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Et. al won't be gracing us with their presence at Target Field until the weather warms up. Barring injuries, of course.

 

The best we can hope for at this point is that "he felt a twinge" shows up in one of the post-game stories following one of Phil's next outings.

 

Doesn't Derek Falvey have an economics degree? I think we can safely assume he understands the concept of sunk cost.

 

I don't think it's a matter of whether the Twins will actually do a 4 man rotation or not. With the off days, starters typically not going deep early in the season and the lack of long men in the bullpen they probably know that there are going to be multiple times the #5 starter is going to get work out of the pen, however they don't know when they'll need him so it's not like they can plan accordingly. The 5th guys is likely going to be yo-yoed, they probably don't want that for Mejia.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Every CEO knows the theory of sunk costs by now. That has not changed their behavior... That said, I don't get the Hughes decision on a different front. This loading up on veterans leaves them few players with options. This I don't understand.

[nicksaviking]

 

Every CEO knows the theory of sunk costs by now. That has not changed their behavior... That said, I don't get the Hughes decision on a different front. This loading up on veterans leaves them few players with options. This I don't understand.

 

Right, it isn't about sunk cost, it's about retaining the most assets as possible. I don't want Hughes anymore, but they get to hold on to more toys this way I guess. And last year it meant a pretty quick hook. We all were disappointed that Danny Santana, Craig Breslow, Michael Tonkin and Justin Haley all made the club, but they all had a really short leash before being kicked to the curb.

 

The Twins still have all the guys with options, they're just actually using the options. This team is at a record payroll and the new front office had no problem last year getting rid of the players causing on-field issues. I don't think Hughes is going to have a long leash if he's costing the team games and there are better options.

 

My tune would probably be different if Hughes was taking a spot away from a guy like Berrios. I like Mejia, but I don't see him as a significant asset at the moment.

[Riverbrian]

 

In that train of thought

 

Lynn won't be as bad as some people think nor as good as the Twins need him to be

Mejia won't be as good as some people think he can be nor as bad as last year.

 

I keep my expectations simple. I want the SP's to keep us in the game and give the offense a chance to outscore the other team. 

 

I'm personally not comfortable with any declaration that Hughes will hit the mound and it's a guaranteed loss when he does. 

 

If it is a guaranteed loss. The Front Office will make the appropriate move. 

[jud6312]

 

Doesn't Derek Falvey have an economics degree? I think we can safely assume he understands the concept of sunk cost.

 

I don't think it's a matter of whether the Twins will actually do a 4 man rotation or not. With the off days, starters typically not going deep early in the season and the lack of long men in the bullpen they probably know that there are going to be multiple times the #5 starter is going to get work out of the pen, however they don't know when they'll need him so it's not like they can plan accordingly. The 5th guys is likely going to be yo-yoed, they probably don't want that for Mejia.

So we're glossing over the part about trotting a batting practice pitcher out there 4-5 times while waiting for Erv to come back?

 

It's not about a 4-man rotation versus a 5-man rotation. It's about allowing an oft-injured junk-baller anywhere near a big league mound.

 

Losing 4-5 games because Hughes can't sneak his 43 MPH heater past anyone count the same whether they're in April or August.

 

In a season that the team should be competitive, but probably still competing with several teams for the Wild Card spots, I want the best pitchers available. Not the best ones with big contracts or without options.

[nicksaviking]

 

So we're glossing over the part about trotting a batting practice pitcher out there 4-5 times while waiting for Erv to come back?

 

It's not about a 4-man rotation versus a 5-man rotation. It's about allowing an oft-injured junk-baller anywhere near a big league mound.

 

Losing 4-5 games because Hughes can't sneak his 43 MPH heater past anyone count the same whether they're in April or August.

 

In a season that the team should be competitive, but probably still competing with several teams for the Wild Card spots, I want the best pitchers available. Not the best ones with big contracts or without options.

 

The Twins have a record payroll and loaded up with a bunch of vets, you don't think the front office is trying to put together the most competitive 40-man roster they can? They cut under-performing players last year right and left, why do you assume they won't do it again?

 

I'm not a Hughes fan, I think he's done, but you have no clue if he will cost the team 4-5 games. It's not like he's blocking some young stud that's a sure thing to contribute. And you certainly know that his FB isn't 43 MPH.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Right, it isn't about sunk cost, it's about retaining the most assets as possible. I don't want Hughes anymore, but they get to hold on to more toys this way I guess. And last year it meant a pretty quick hook. We all were disappointed that Danny Santana, Craig Breslow, Michael Tonkin and Justin Haley all made the club, but they all had a really short leash before being kicked to the curb.

 

The Twins still have all the guys with options, they're just actually using the options. This team is at a record payroll and the new front office had no problem last year getting rid of the players causing on-field issues. I don't think Hughes is going to have a long leash if he's costing the team games and there are better options.

 

My tune would probably be different if Hughes was taking a spot away from a guy like Berrios. I like Mejia, but I don't see him as a significant asset at the moment.

The depth argument in favor of holding onto Hughes doesn't make much sense. It doesn't sound like you're carrying much water for Hughes, but I don't currently see a positive outcome for the situation. Sure, by definition putting better pitchers behind him improves depth, but that's hurting the team in the short term just to keep a guy, who's essentially a replaceable waiver wire flier at this point, in the starting lineup. 

 

IMO there isn't any good way to rationalize not having your 5 best pitchers starting the season. The fact we're even talking about short hooks for a veteran pitcher like Hughes should tell us all we need to know about whether or not he belongs in the rotation. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It will be interesting to see what kind of bullpen and bench they bring north too. It could be possible (preferable?) to keep Hughes as a long reliever but use someone else in the 5th starter role.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I keep my expectations simple. I want the SP's to keep us in the game and give the offense a chance to outscore the other team. 

 

I'm personally not comfortable with any declaration that Hughes will hit the mound and it's a guaranteed loss when he does. 

 

If it is a guaranteed loss. The Front Office will make the appropriate move. 

Yes and no. 

 

You're right, Hughes performance one way or another is guaranteed. 

 

I don't think he has shown anything in the last couple years to suggest that he'll be anything other than a guy who's going to labor through innings. It's tough for that type of pitcher to consistently keep their team in games if they're throwing bp and trying to get by on smoke, mirrors, and luck.  

[FormerMinnasotan]

I hope if Hughes struggles they just cut ties as quickly as possible. I have little to no faith he will even be an ounce of the pitcher he once was. I remember when Chris Carpenter had his issues with the TOS. He came back for a year and pitched well, HOWEVER once it happened again he was done. I have 0 hope Hughes will amount to anything. I’d rather bring out Mejia/Slegers/Jorge early this season to give way to Gonsalves/Romero by July. Hughes has nothing and if he shows he cannot start put him in the pen and if he struggles there release him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perhaps a comparable is Edwin Jackson. He was looking toasty with 2 years left in his deal with the Cubs in 2015, and they put him in a mop-up role for a few months, then released him in late July with a year-plus left on his deal when it became apparent they no longer needed him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Giving early season starts to Hughes has a bit of a domino effect. It likely pushes back how quickly we'd be willing to replace another struggling starter like, say, Gibson, because we won't have as much confidence in Mejia as we otherwise could if opened the season successfully in MLB. (We'll also likely want to give Mejia the next opening, when perhaps Gonsalves or even Romero might have also earned a shot by then.)

[nicksaviking]

 

The depth argument in favor of holding onto Hughes doesn't make much sense. It doesn't sound like you're carrying much water for Hughes, but I don't currently see a positive outcome for the situation. Sure, by definition putting better pitchers behind him improves depth, but that's hurting the team in the short term just to keep a guy, who's essentially a replaceable waiver wire flier at this point, in the starting lineup. 

 

IMO there isn't any good way to rationalize not having your 5 best pitchers starting the season. The fact we're even talking about short hooks for a veteran pitcher like Hughes should tell us all we need to know about whether or not he belongs in the rotation. 

 

But that's only because the front office doesn't share our utter lack of faith in Hughes. How do we know that Hughes isn't one of the best five guys in the eyes of the front office? I think they've demonstrated that they are doing their damndest to win. It probably doesn't matter if they are holding on to him because they think the depth is worth it down the road, or because they still think he can contribute now.

 

I've been ready to cut the cord on him since last year, but I can't pretend that him flaming out is absolute and written in stone. Since the team is showing that they are going for it, it probably means that they think it's not a sure thing and it's worth a shot to see if he has something left. It's almost surely not because they are trying to recoup invisible money or owe it to a veteran or something of that nature.

[strumdatjaguar]

The Twins will put him in the bullpen to start the season, maybe a spot start.   If he looks lousy, he should be waived. If Hughes looks good, then hopefully he'll find a role in the rotation or bullpen.  I don't want to see him in AAA, where the Twins have a good staff that needs to pitch innings and prove themselves worthy to be on the big league club.  

[KirbyDome89]

 

But that's only because the front office doesn't share our utter lack of faith in Hughes. How do we know that Hughes isn't one of the best five guys in the eyes of the front office? I think they've demonstrated that they are doing their damndest to win. It probably doesn't matter if they are holding on to him because they think the depth is worth it down the road, or because they still think he can contribute now.

 

I've been ready to cut the cord on him since last year, but I can't pretend that him flaming out is absolute and written in stone. Since the team is showing that they are going for it, it probably means that they think it's not a sure thing and it's worth a shot to see if he has something left. It's almost surely not because they are trying to recoup invisible money or owe it to a veteran or something of that nature.

Well if they're holding onto him simply for depth purposes and that forces him into the starting rotation then it does matter. 

 

I don't think anybody is accusing the FO of trying not to win games, but I also don't think it's inconceivable that Hughes salary is the driving force for him "getting another look." It wasn't pretty last year but the FO got a pass because the rotation was awful, the team wasn't expected to any good, and it was their evaluation period. Hughes wasn't good. At all. Now coming off a second surgery and looking pretty much the same as he did at this point last year, why are we expecting anything different? 

 

Like I said, it really just comes down to whether he's better than some of what they have behind him, and to this point I don't think he has shown anything to say he's any different than the guy we saw last year. IMO Mejia can top that.  

[Doomtints]

 

Except... Mejia wasn’t bad last year.

 

He was very good for his projection + rookie status. If that was his floor, the Twins will be able to use him.

[jorgenswest]

I'm sorry, this still doesn't seem possible to me. That first start is a month away, and they presumably aren't skipping the 5th starter during spring training. Besides, they can and do use MLB players in intrasquad / minor league spring training games, so he could stay in MLB camp even if they wanted to get more innings for both him and Hughes.

Occam's Razor suggests that they have already decided that Hughes is getting the first crack at the 5th starter spot. Nothing else really makes sense at this point, for Mejia and especially Romero.

It is possible if they are giving Hughes the remaining spring training to show something and lining up Mejia (or Romero) for that first targeted 5th start. It might be Hughes’ job to lose but I don’t think the competition for that spot is over because Mejia was sent out. Sending Mejia to minor league camp allows him to start every fifth day and stretch out. They wouldn’t happen if he were in major league camp.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The depth argument in favor of holding onto Hughes doesn't make much sense. It doesn't sound like you're carrying much water for Hughes, but I don't currently see a positive outcome for the situation. Sure, by definition putting better pitchers behind him improves depth, but that's hurting the team in the short term just to keep a guy, who's essentially a replaceable waiver wire flier at this point, in the starting lineup.

 

IMO there isn't any good way to rationalize not having your 5 best pitchers starting the season. The fact we're even talking about short hooks for a veteran pitcher like Hughes should tell us all we need to know about whether or not he belongs in the rotation.

they’re going to use 10 starting pitchers this season. Mejia is better than Hughes, but Hughes might be better than Slegers, and there’s not much ml experience behind Mejia...

 

Point is, someone is getting injured and someone as bad or worse than Hughes is getting 6-10 starts with the big league club. Isn’t it good to have Mejia in your back pocket? He’s getting 10 or more starts with the big league club no matter what.

 

Why do you care if it’s April or August for either Hughes or Mejia?

 

For the record, I like Mejia a lot and feel he should be going north... I don’t like Hughes and want him to be gone, and wonder what value the FO thinks they can wring from him...

 

It’s the 5th starter and 1-4 are pretty dang solid. When Santana comes back, there’ll be some roster shuffling. When someone (prolly Hughes) gets hurt, there’ll be some roster shuffling. April showers bring pilgrims or something.

 

It’s all up in the air...