When do the Twins cut bait with Phil Hughes?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Those 5 games could easily be the difference between making the playoffs and not.

I get they have a lot invested in this guy, but I still don't understand giving him a rotation spot- even if it's temporary.

Yup. Or for the optimistic among us, winning the division vs. going to the wild card game (or hosting the wild card game vs. playing on the road, etc.).

 

I am not sure how the relief staff will shake out, but I think I might prefer Mejia in the 5th spot, even if he gets skipped a few times, and Hughes in long relief. Or if one buys into the Romero hype train, skipping him a few times would be a way to manage his innings, aided by having a long reliever available to soak up innings behind him if desired.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Those 5 games could easily be the difference between making the playoffs and not.

I get they have a lot invested in this guy, but I still don't understand giving him a rotation spot- even if it's temporary.

I agree the games matter but do you want to see a guy like Mejia get 20-25 IP in six weeks? For his long term development, you want him pitching every 5-6 days.

 

And that’s where situations like this get difficult. What matters more, 4-5 games in April and May or the development of a guy you want as a contributor for the next six seasons? I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here, it only depends on perspective and priorities.

[twins_89]

My prediction is that Hughes will be waived at the same time that Santana comes off the DL. I'm guessing Hughes will be pretty much the same pitcher he's been the last couple of years, by that I mean he'll be a 5+ ERA guy who throws 88-90. After 4-5 starts it will be clear there is no chance he'll ever be a capable major league pitcher again.

[Thrylos]

 

But I hope Hughes has an extremely short leash once the team needs a fifth starter regularly.

 

Santana replacing him when healthy takes care of Hughes's leash.

[Thrylos]

 

And that’s where situations like this get difficult. What matters more, 4-5 games in April and May or the development of a guy you want as a contributor for the next six seasons? I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here, it only depends on perspective and priorities.

 

Based on the fact that the Twins have a 3-4 year of competitiveness left, if they feel that this season is it, they got to go for it.  That said they still lack the top of the rotation pitcher they need to contend in the postseason.  There is an outside chance that Romero will turn into that half way in the season, or they might trade for an Ace at the deadline.  Other than that, April and May games matter as much as September games...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree the games matter but do you want to see a guy like Mejia get 20-25 IP in six weeks? For his long term development, you want him pitching every 5-6 days.

 

And that’s where situations like this get difficult. What matters more, 4-5 games in April and May or the development of a guy you want as a contributor for the next six seasons? I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here, it only depends on perspective and priorities.

If Mejia does well, then don't skip him. We're not required to use a 4-man rotation, and in fact it is a questionable way to use those off days considering the group.

 

If Mejia doesn't do well, then consider that he's not in that precious of a prospect development spot anyway. He is almost 25 years old, has almost a full season of MLB service time already, and 2018 could be his last option year (another potential consequence of preferring Hughes?). Not sure if we really need to be concerned about skipping him a few times, if we so desire.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Mejia does well, then don't skip him. We're not required to use a 4-man rotation, and in fact it is a questionable way to use those off days considering the group.

If Mejia doesn't do well, then consider that he's not in that precious of a prospect development spot anyway. He is almost 25 years old, has almost a full season of MLB service time already, and 2018 could be his last option year (another potential consequence of preferring Hughes?). Not sure if we really need to be concerned about skipping him a few times, if we so desire.

It was my understanding that teams are generally loathe to push back their best starters early in the season. They want to get a rhythm going and let them get into the flow of a season. I could be wrong about that re: the Twins but that's what I've gleaned from other teams in the past.

 

Besides, we don't even know why Mejia was demoted. Maybe the front office hasn't liked what they've seen thus far and narrowed the race down to Hughes and a guy like Slegers.

 

On its face, this is one move and we don't know how the dominoes fall from this point forward. We assume it's Hughes - and there's a good chance it is - but that's not necessarily the case.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wondering if this means they won't do any skipping now? Doesn't seem to be set in stone yet though.

 

https://twitter.com/mikeberardino/status/973323082323677185?s=21

This would be logical. Lynn is getting a late start, Odorizzi has had health issues, Berrios probably doesn't need to be pushed, and Gibson may not be worth pushing.

 

I think they can reserve the option to skip someone and that can be a good thing, but if they are using it to justify giving Hughes a chance that his diminished stuff may not warrant, that is a bad thing.

[Twins33]

Besides, we don't even know why Mejia was demoted. Maybe the front office hasn't liked what they've seen thus far and narrowed the race down to Hughes and a guy like Slegers.

Slegers was optioned too, unless you didn't mean "a guy like Slegers" literally.

 

Speaking of the fifth spot though, who is left fighting with Hughes for that spot? I honestly can't think of anyone left except maybe Duffey who I've heard zip about so far. I think everyone else who was has been sent down already unless I'm forgetting someone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It was my understanding that teams are generally loathe to push back their best starters early in the season. They want to get a rhythm going and let them get into the flow of a season. I could be wrong about that re: the Twins but that's what I've gleaned from other teams in the past.

I've gleaned the opposite. In any case, the Twins top 4 right now without Ervin does not seem like a great match for that strategy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Slegers was optioned too, unless you didn't mean "a guy like Slegers" literally.

Speaking of the fifth spot though, who is left fighting with Hughes for that spot? I honestly can't think of anyone left except maybe Duffey who I've heard zip about so far. I think everyone else who was has been sent down already unless I'm forgetting someone.

Ah, I missed that Slegers was optioned as well. Thanks for the heads-up.

 

Yeah, meh. I'm not a fan of pruning down the rotation before we close the second week of March. I don't see the point in it.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Those 5 games could easily be the difference between making the playoffs and not.
I get they have a lot invested in this guy, but I still don't understand giving him a rotation spot- even if it's temporary.

Exactly. This team isn't good enough to just give away Ws. If Mejia is the better pitcher (and he is) then he should have that 5th spot if they're moving back towards a five man rotation. 

 

1.5 months of extra time between MLB starts isn't going to derail his development. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've gleaned the opposite. In any case, the Twins top 4 right now without Ervin does not seem like a great match for that strategy.

Dunno. I saw you mention Odorizzi earlier... is there any indication he's not 100%? I've only seem mentions that he's pretty much ready to go. He pitched around 150 innings last season so it's not as if he's rusty. As for Lynn, he's a horse that has over three weeks to get into shape. I don't really see a problem there.

 

Then there's Berrios, who never seems to break down and Gibson, who doesn't seem to have any issues that I'm aware of.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ah, I missed that Slegers was optioned as well. Thanks for the heads-up.

 

Yeah, meh. I'm not a fan of pruning down the rotation before we close the second week of March. I don't see the point in it.

Keep in mind, opening day is in the middle of the 4th week of March, just over 2 weeks away. So this seems like a logical point to prune down to ~6 SP and start stretching them out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Keep in mind, opening day is in the middle of the 4th week of March, just over 2 weeks away. So this seems like a logical point to prune down to ~6 SP and start stretching them out.

Ahh... I looked at the calendar wrong. I thought the team opened against the Pirates but see they open against the Orioles. My mistake.

 

Also, I'll take this time to yet again complain about how much I hate the on/off nature of opening series. The Twins get three of them in a row this season. Ugh.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Dunno. I saw you mention Odorizzi earlier... is there any indication he's not 100%? I've only seem mentions that he's pretty much ready to go. He pitched around 150 innings last season so it's not as if he's rusty. As for Lynn, he's a horse that has over three weeks to get into shape. I don't really see a problem there.

 

Then there's Berrios, who never seems to break down and Gibson, who doesn't seem to have any issues that I'm aware of.

Odorizzi had back problems last season -- that doesn't seem like a binary-type injury, so maybe some precautions like extra rest when possible are in order. Lynn is going to have barely 2 weeks of spring training. Berrios has yet to pitch a full MLB season, and might be our best SP hope for the postseason. All of these guys could potentially benefit from extra days of rest as they ease into the 2018 season. (And Gibson may not be that good to warrant skipping someone else.)

[Twins33]

We also have to remember that Lynn was taking part in the FA spring training camp too, so he may not be far behind at all. He threw 41 pitches today. I can't remember where the other guys are at but that doesn't seem that far behind. Maybe a week behind. I think Hughes was in the 50s for pitches the other day. Last I saw they think Lynn will pitch on 04/02 or 04/04 as his first regular season start.

 

Looking up stats, it does look like it's Hughes vs Duffey for the fifth spot. I'm guessing Hughes pretty much has it already

[laloesch]

 

Based on the fact that the Twins have a 3-4 year of competitiveness left, if they feel that this season is it, they got to go for it.  That said they still lack the top of the rotation pitcher they need to contend in the postseason.  There is an outside chance that Romero will turn into that half way in the season, or they might trade for an Ace at the deadline.  Other than that, April and May games matter as much as September games...

 

Which is why it's even more important for them to go with a five man rotation from the get go and try out Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, Littell and see who sticks as the fifth man.  

[Monkeypaws]

Silly me - I thought this thread got bumped because Hughes had a fairly solid outing against the Yankees, and people were reconsidering.

 

WRONG! 

[Thrylos]

 

Odorizzi had back problems last season -- that doesn't seem like a binary-type injury, so maybe some precautions like extra rest when possible are in order

 

Odorizzi had back problems early last season.  He went to the DL, rested his back, made a rehab stint in the minors and returned healthy and pitched like it to finish the season.  His back has not bothered him since August or so, unless it has not been disclosed.  More details on the subject here.

[jud6312]

 

This would be logical. Lynn is getting a late start, Odorizzi has had health issues, Berrios probably doesn't need to be pushed, and Gibson may not be worth pushing.

I think they can reserve the option to skip someone and that can be a good thing, but if they are using it to justify giving Hughes a chance that his diminished stuff may not warrant, that is a bad thing.

No problem with them skipping or not skipping anyone's starts early in the season ... unless they're skipping Hughes' starts. I'm all in favor of skipping those.

[USAFChief]

I have always been sceptical of the idea the Twins would go with a 4 man rotation to start the season.

 

They haven't in the past, nor have many other teams.

 

As for Hughes, IMO a starting gig was always going to be his to lose in ST.

[ashbury]

The Twins get three of them in a row this season. Ugh.

Kind of like football teams scheduling a patsy for Homecoming? Let's surprise them, this time.

[jkcarew]

 

As for Hughes, IMO a starting gig was always going to be his to lose in ST.

This.  It's one thing to understand the concept of sunk cost...but you're still going to give a huge investment like that every possible opportunity to turn.  I'd imagine the Twins plan on pitching him early either as a 5th starter or long-man, with the idea that if (many here would say when) he implodes, they look at DL options to buy even more time.  They'll be absolutely positive and out of all stashing options before they let him go.

 

With regard to the early 4-man rotation, a lot of times it's dependent on the weather.  There are more (than normal) off days scheduled early...combine that with the possibility of multiple rain/snow/cold postponements...and sometimes it can get ridiculous.

[Mike Sixel]

Exactly. This team isn't good enough to just give away Ws. If Mejia is the better pitcher (and he is) then he should have that 5th spot if they're moving back towards a five man rotation.

 

1.5 months of extra time between MLB starts isn't going to derail his development.

Agreed. On all of that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Odorizzi had back problems early last season. He went to the DL, rested his back, made a rehab stint in the minors and returned healthy and pitched like it to finish the season. His back has not bothered him since August or so, unless it has not been disclosed.

I get that, but again, generic "back problems" seem like the kind of thing that could come back again if he's not careful. Not saying it is critical to have extra rest early in the season, but it couldn't hurt. (Assuming the alternative wasn't more starts for Hughes, of course....)

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree the games matter but do you want to see a guy like Mejia get 20-25 IP in six weeks? For his long term development, you want him pitching every 5-6 days.

 

And that’s where situations like this get difficult. What matters more, 4-5 games in April and May or the development of a guy you want as a contributor for the next six seasons? I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here, it only depends on perspective and priorities.

Mejia has options. Why can't he go down to AAA between starts to stay on a 5th day schedule?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mejia has options. Why can't he go down to AAA between starts to stay on a 5th day schedule?

The ten day rule still exists for demotions/call-ups, doesn’t it?

[Mr. Brooks]

The ten day rule still exists for demotions/call-ups, doesn’t it?

Sure, but if it's less than 10 days between starts, he's not really missing out on much development, is he?

 

Or, alternate sending down Mejia and Slegers/Jorge. They all give you at least a moderate chance to win, unlike Hughes.

[Guest]

Total guess: Hildenberger may go to Rochester and Hughes may go to the bullpen if Hildy doesn’t pick it up, especially when Santana returns.