When do the Twins cut bait with Phil Hughes?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sending Mejia to minor league camp allows him to start every fifth day and stretch out. They wouldn’t happen if he were in major league camp.

Again, this doesn't seem true. The Twins have had 6 or more starters in camp until the very end of spring training most years. (They arguably still do right now, with Duffey, although it seems understood that he's just getting stretched out for long relief.) With split squad games and minor league games, there doesn't seem to be any precedent for sending out one of your planned top 5 starters with over 2 weeks of spring training remaining. Technically possible, but it doesn't seem a likely explanation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

they’re going to use 10 starting pitchers this season. Mejia is better than Hughes, but Hughes might be better than Slegers, and there’s not much ml experience behind Mejia...

 

Point is, someone is getting injured and someone as bad or worse than Hughes is getting 6-10 starts with the big league club. Isn’t it good to have Mejia in your back pocket? He’s getting 10 or more starts with the big league club no matter what.

 

Why do you care if it’s April or August for either Hughes or Mejia?

 

I posted upthread about the domino effect. There is value in information, and the timing of information. As a rough example, April starts will be infinitely more valuable than August starts for determining how we approach the July trade deadline. But even just starting Hughes in April might push back Mejia to May, which might push back a Gibson demotion or a Gonsalves/Romero promotion to June that we otherwise might do in May, etc.

 

And I think you might be over-estimating the number of "bad starts" we should expect for a contending ballclub, perhaps due to recent dismal Twins staffs. In any case, the potential for bad starts down the road isn't am excuse to accept bad starts now. The proper course should be to try to avoid bad starts now, to the best of your ability with the information and options you have today, and hope that with more information and options down the road, you can minimize your exposure to future bad starts too.

[jud6312]

 

The Twins have a record payroll and loaded up with a bunch of vets, you don't think the front office is trying to put together the most competitive 40-man roster they can? They cut under-performing players last year right and left, why do you assume they won't do it again?

 

I'm not a Hughes fan, I think he's done, but you have no clue if he will cost the team 4-5 games. It's not like he's blocking some young stud that's a sure thing to contribute. And you certainly know that his FB isn't 43 MPH.

I see sarcasm is lost on you. Good to know.

 

But having seen Hughes the last couple of years, I feel 100% confident that he'll cost the team 4-5 wins before he helps them win 4-5 games.

[jud6312]

 

The depth argument in favor of holding onto Hughes doesn't make much sense. It doesn't sound like you're carrying much water for Hughes, but I don't currently see a positive outcome for the situation. Sure, by definition putting better pitchers behind him improves depth, but that's hurting the team in the short term just to keep a guy, who's essentially a replaceable waiver wire flier at this point, in the starting lineup. 

 

IMO there isn't any good way to rationalize not having your 5 best pitchers starting the season. The fact we're even talking about short hooks for a veteran pitcher like Hughes should tell us all we need to know about whether or not he belongs in the rotation. 

THIS 1000X this. 

[GCTF]

 

 

 

 

The burn still lingers. 

See a doctor and get rid of it.

[snepp]

 

See a doctor and get rid of it.

 

It's a remnant of BYTO's doing, I endure it out of nostalgia.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I posted upthread about the domino effect. There is value in information, and the timing of information. As a rough example, April starts will be infinitely more valuable than August starts for determining how we approach the July trade deadline. But even just starting Hughes in April might push back Mejia to May, which might push back a Gibson demotion or a Gonsalves/Romero promotion to June that we otherwise might do in May, etc.

 

And I think you might be over-estimating the number of "bad starts" we should expect for a contending ballclub, perhaps due to recent dismal Twins staffs. In any case, the potential for bad starts down the road isn't am excuse to accept bad starts now. The proper course should be to try to avoid bad starts now, to the best of your ability with the information and options you have today, and hope that with more information and options down the road, you can minimize your exposure to future bad starts too.

true, every game is valuable however, April has fewer planned 5th starter starts and the greater opportunity for 6th starter starts due to double headers from rain outs.

 

April will be very inconsistent for the 5th starter. I can see why Falvine would want to get Mejia his work. The beginning of the season tends to be a continuation of ST. Seems like short starts are more common in the first couple weeks.

[nicksaviking]

Well if they're holding onto him simply for depth purposes and that forces him into the starting rotation then it does matter. 

 

Only if one assumes the team is going to roll with five starters all year. For all we know holding on to Hughes now saves the team from having to go with Dietrich Enns later.

[KirbyDome89]

 

they’re going to use 10 starting pitchers this season. Mejia is better than Hughes, but Hughes might be better than Slegers, and there’s not much ml experience behind Mejia...

Point is, someone is getting injured and someone as bad or worse than Hughes is getting 6-10 starts with the big league club. Isn’t it good to have Mejia in your back pocket? He’s getting 10 or more starts with the big league club no matter what.

Why do you care if it’s April or August for either Hughes or Mejia?

Unless somebody is of the belief that Hughes still has something left and/or he's on equal ground with Mejia in terms of expected contribution, I really don't understand how or why having the lesser pitcher in the rotation is being rationalized as ok. It's not. 

 

I care about Mejia going north for the same reason I cared about Berrios starting last season in the rotation; you want your 5 best pitchers in the rotation at all times. If there's a better option than Mejia then by all means put him in your pocket, but that isn't the case. How is having a better pitcher starting in AAA  advantageous compared to having him pitching for the Twins? Why start at a disadvantage? it's illogical to think that they're equally well off starting a worse pitcher for any amount of time. 

 

All games matter. The point is to give yourself the best chance to win each one and if you don't think Hughes is the better pitcher, but you're handing him starts to preserve depth, then you're not doing that. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Only if one assumes the team is going to roll with five starters all year. For all we know holding on to Hughes now saves the team from having to go with Dietrich Enns later.

So they pay a real price now i.e. giving innings to a lesser pitcher and limit themselves to start the year for the chance that a hypothetical plays out? 

 

If Enns is getting starts in a 4 man rotation then the season has likely gone sideways already, but for the sake of argument even if it hasn't, they cross that bridge when they get there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Only if one assumes the team is going to roll with five starters all year. For all we know holding on to Hughes now saves the team from having to go with Dietrich Enns later.

FWIW, I am not suggesting cutting Hughes. I think I would put him in a mop-up role.

[The Wise One]

 

Except... Mejia wasn’t bad last year.

a .927 ops on his 4 seam fastball, couldn't find the plate with a sinker, the only pitch that missed bats was his slider, Fairly consistent in getting pulled in the middle of an inning.  It did not get better as the season wore on. It was not awful like the season Pelfrey had. It was not good. The onlt thing that one can point to was a near league average fip and ERA. That would be generous calling them near.  The FO paid a price to find a late spring training addition to the rotation. 

[nicksaviking]

 

FWIW, I am not suggesting cutting Hughes. I think I would put him in a mop-up role.

 

I've made the case previously here that I suspect that the 5th starter is going to most likely be that guy to start the year. It doesn't look like the bullpen will have a mop-up/long man.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

a .927 ops on his 4 seam fastball, couldn't find the plate with a sinker, the only pitch that missed bats was his slider, Fairly consistent in getting pulled in the middle of an inning.  It did not get better as the season wore on. It was not awful like the season Pelfrey had. It was not good. The onlt thing that one can point to was a near league average fip and ERA. That would be generous calling them near.  The FO paid a price to find a late spring training addition to the rotation. 

His ERA+ was 98, which is pretty much spot-on for a starter, if not a tick or two above average. His FIP was only .15 higher than his ERA IIRC (going from memory).

 

He certainly had his issues, especially length of starts, but he was also a rookie. There's enough to like with Mejia to expect #4/5 numbers in his sophomore season and I don't really see how you can call his 2017 "bad". It was a challenging, but acceptable, season for a rookie prospect who was never that highly regarded in the first place.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I've made the case previously here that I suspect that the 5th starter is going to most likely be that guy to start the year. It doesn't look like the bullpen will have a mop-up/long man.

They're stretching out Duffey for something, and his leverage was trending down late last season, even before we added Reed, Duke, and Rodney. And Kinley and Aybar are in the mix for this roster too. So it's not clear to me that they won't have a mop-up guy, or that they wouldn't have room for one in addition to a 5th starter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Unless somebody is of the belief that Hughes still has something left and/or he's on equal ground with Mejia in terms of expected contribution, I really don't understand how or why having the lesser pitcher in the rotation is being rationalized as ok. It's not.

 

I care about Mejia going north for the same reason I cared about Berrios starting last season in the rotation; you want your 5 best pitchers in the rotation at all times. If there's a better option than Mejia then by all means put him in your pocket, but that isn't the case. How is having a better pitcher starting in AAA advantageous compared to having him pitching for the Twins? Why start at a disadvantage? it's illogical to think that they're equally well off starting a worse pitcher for any amount of time.

 

All games matter. The point is to give yourself the best chance to win each one and if you don't think Hughes is the better pitcher, but you're handing him starts to preserve depth, then you're not doing that.

if you’re giving Hughes a shot, I’d rather it in April with the goofy schedule and high chance for rainouts. Mejia can then get into a regular rotation in AAA and be the first man up for the rain out doubleheaders and when someone gets hurt. When Santana comes back, the 5th starter is getting the boot anyways, barring injury

[The Wise One]

 

His ERA+ was 98, which is pretty much spot-on for a starter, if not a tick or two above average. His FIP was only .15 higher than his ERA IIRC (going from memory).

 

He certainly had his issues, especially length of starts, but he was also a rookie. There's enough to like with Mejia to expect #4/5 numbers in his sophomore season and I don't really see how you can call his 2017 "bad". It was a challenging, but acceptable, season for a rookie prospect who was never that highly regarded in the first place.

A one good pitch pitcher without a good fastball. At age 24, almost 25 where is the upside? Learning a better fastball at this point and time? Danny Santana had a decent year batting until the pitching caught up to him. Mejia had a good year pitching. Using the rookie line would be acceptable if you believe Santana can hit .350 or whatever it was

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

A one good pitch pitcher without a good fastball. At age 24, almost 25 where is the upside? Learning a better fastball at this point and time? Danny Santana had a decent year batting until the pitching caught up to him. Mejia had a good year pitching. Using the rookie line would be acceptable if you believe Santana can hit .350 or whatever it was

Santana had a .400 BABIP that year and pretty much everybody knew he was due to regress because nobody gets that lucky two years in a row.

 

There is nothing to indicate Mejia's rookie campaign was luck-fueled. He posted pretty solid numbers across the board and luck had nothing to do with his roughly league-average performance.

 

And he's not a one-pitch guy. While his fastball was below average (-5.8 runs), his slider was neutral (+0.1 runs) and his curve was pretty good (+1.1 runs). His change certainly needs work, as he was -5.6 runs with it while throwing it only 18% of the time.

[bluechipper]

3.1 innings today: 9 runs, 5 earned on 8 hits. 

 

I think we've seen enough. They can do better, even for a mop-up guy.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3.1 innings today: 9 runs, 5 earned on 8 hits.

 

I think we've seen enough. They can do better, even for a mop-up guy.

did anyone see the game? Was he working on something specific? By now I’d think he’d be working on mix and longevity as the season starts in less than two weeks.

[mikelink45]

Today would seem to be a good day

 

[Guest]

Have to agree with people posting that Hughes looks cooked. It is hard to believe that today’s pitcher could get MLB starts in April. He looks more prepared for the Home Run Derby.

 

At the same time, it would be good to see Mejia earn a starting spot, instead of getting a battlefield promotion. His spring training was not good, either, and he was mediocre, at best, last year. At this point. I’d rather he establish some value in AAA and then get traded as part of a package for a more capable lefty.

[jorgenswest]

A couple of the earned runs were a fly ball lost in the sun that went for a ground rule double. He was still awful and had awful defense behind him. The Pirates did not a have a good lineup. He gave up two solo home runs and walked the pitcher prior to the ground rule double. He was touching 90. Looked good in the second inning with three strike outs. It is hard to imagine he will be the fifth starter but he will get a few more looks.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

A couple of the earned runs were a fly ball lost in the sun that went for a ground rule double. He was still awful and had awful defense behind him. The Pirates did not a have a good lineup. He gave up two solo home runs and walked the pitcher prior to the ground rule double. He was touching 90. Looked good in the second inning with three strike outs. It is hard to imagine he will be the fifth starter but he will get a few more looks.

he’ll have 3 more appearances I assume? Does Rochester line up Mejia for the same schedule?

[adorduan]

 

did anyone see the game? Was he working on something specific? By now I’d think he’d be working on mix and longevity as the season starts in less than two weeks.

Just finished watching Hughes in the game today.  Was throwing his slow curve (76-77) early in count to get ahead, but struggled to put away hitters.  did strike out the side in 2nd but all of the guys he struck out got hits the 2nd time they hit against him. Fastball was 86-88 most of the time.  His fielders didn't help him either.  The 2 home runs weren't cheapies and seemed to get a little rattled after the 2nd one. Left with the bases loaded and Busenitz let them all score. An ugly game in the field for the Twins, 4 errors.

 

I started this thread and even though I think Phil is a good guy, he just doesn't have the stuff to be effective anymore, IMO.

[D.C Twins]

Yes, now would be fine

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just finished watching Hughes in the game today. Was throwing his slow curve (76-77) early in count to get ahead, but struggled to put away hitters. did strike out the side in 2nd but all of the guys he struck out got hits the 2nd time they hit against him. Fastball was 86-88 most of the time. His fielders didn't help him either. The 2 home runs weren't cheapies and seemed to get a little rattled after the 2nd one. Left with the bases loaded and Busenitz let them all score. An ugly game in the field for the Twins, 4 errors.

 

I started this thread and even though I think Phil is a good guy, he just doesn't have the stuff to be effective anymore, IMO.

thanks for the report. I’ve been on the “let’s see what he’s got” side, but man TOS is a tough one to come back from. It doesn’t sound good.

[ahart10]

Maybe Phil will learn to throw a knuckleball and turn into Tim Wakefield.

[TheLeviathan]

That Lance Lynn move looks better by the day. (Especially every day we watch Hughes though)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe Phil will learn to throw a knuckleball and turn into Tim Wakefield.

Don’t hold your breath, as it usually takes a few years to learn the knuckleball.