When do the Twins cut bait with Phil Hughes?

[KirbyDome89]

 

Middle Ground gets lost on the internet from time to time. 

 

I don't feel that choosing Hughes is like licking dirt and choosing Mejia is a Filet Mignon. 

I don't think anybody is very high on Mejia, but a day old ham sandwich is still better than licking dirt. We're talking about the lesser of two evils here, but given how bad Hughes has looked recently, and in the not so distant past, it isn't like we're splitting hairs when picking a side. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm not really convinced that that article says that he is for sure bullpen bound? It said he is going to remain on a starters schedule for the remainder of spring training. Also, I don't get that if he pitches so horrible why would the Twins put him in a mop up/long relief role? Wouldn't you still want one of your best 13 pitchers to be on the roster?? I mean if he is toast, why keep him on the roster at all?? Bring up one of the young guys to be the long man in the pen?

 

Idk, it just seems to me that Phil will get probably 3 starts at the beginning of the season to see what he can do. If for some reason he can average 5 - 6 innings and 3 - 4 earned runs in those 5 - 6 innings, (which is not good by the way), he will probably get another 3 starts. Until he completely melts down he will probably be in the rotation until Santana comes back. Basically if he can throw one or two quality starts in those first 3 games he will get a few more. But if he is so bad that he shouldn't be starting, (which I am on board with everyone else on), then why would they want him as a long man? Just cut him, I say give him a shot for the rest of Spring training and if he does ok give him a couple of starts. But if you aren't confident in him, just get rid of him, let him try and pick up with someone else.

agreed, but how do you convince Polahd to just eat 26 mil? I doubt he would just be ok with it. “Eh, it’s no big deal... easy come, easy go.” Additionally Falvey is supposed to be the pitching guru. Tough to fix a guy who’s not on the team.

[ashbury]

I see there was one pitch that hit 89, but good luck with that.

Well, you have to be willing to throw that change-up once in a while.

[Twodogs]

agreed, but how do you convince Polahd to just eat 26 mil? I doubt he would just be ok with it. “Eh, it’s no big deal... easy come, easy go.” Additionally Falvey is supposed to be the pitching guru. Tough to fix a guy who’s not on the team.

Yeah that's for sure, it's definitely not my money. But how much money does Pohlad lose if they have a bad season?? Idk, maybe none, maybe it's a wash?

[beckmt]

Losses in April count the same as losses later, just do not want to see Twins losing 4/5 of their first 5 starts by their 5th starter (Hughes).  Unless he can increase speed, put him on the DL (tired arm) and let someone else start.  Insurance will pick up some of the cost and you get 21 days rehab.  After that you can cut him and the losses might be a few million less.  Do not see a good outcome on this.  

Otherwise use him when you are down 5 early and do not care what his line is.

[Mr. Brooks]

Losses in April count the same as losses later, just do not want to see Twins losing 4/5 of their first 5 starts by their 5th starter (Hughes). Unless he can increase speed, put him on the DL (tired arm) and let someone else start. Insurance will pick up some of the cost and you get 21 days rehab. After that you can cut him and the losses might be a few million less. Do not see a good outcome on this.

Otherwise use him when you are down 5 early and do not care what his line is.

From what I've read, insurance only kicks in if the player misses the entire season.

It also typically only pays for catastrophic, easily verifiable injuries.

Just my opinion, but I highly doubt it's going to pay out for something like dead arm.

[notoriousgod71]

 

What did you think I meant in the post of mine you quoted when I wrote:

 

'Yes, by extending Hughes, Ryan made a very obvious and predictable mistake (not the first FO to do so), but he's not here any more.'

 

Does it look like I blamed anyone else for the extension? I was very vocal in my disgust on that decision that moment we knew it had been made; HOWEVER...

 

My issue is with Terry being blamed for Hughes still being on the roster.  Ryan left the GM chair midseason of 2016.  Hughes still being on the team, instead of being released since then, falls on new management.

 

The last sentence of your first paragraph is what confused me, but yes, I think we agree that Ryan is at fault for the initial extension and Falvine is at fault for keeping Hughes last year and if he does so again this year.

[Mr. Brooks]

The last sentence of your first paragraph is what confused me, but yes, I think we agree that Ryan is at fault for the initial extension and Falvine is at fault for keeping Hughes last year and if he does so again this year.

Well we don't know if Falvine has that choice.

The owner is going to have say in eating that much money, whether we think they should or not.

[dxpavelka]

When we have 5 starting pitchers clearly head and shoulders better than him.  2006 is the early favorite.

 

[beckmt]

 

From what I've read, insurance only kicks in if the player misses the entire season.
It also typically only pays for catastrophic, easily verifiable injuries.
Just my opinion, but I highly doubt it's going to pay out for something like dead arm.

Argument will be he never recovers from the second surgery (this is the more serious one and some pitchers do not make it back).  I am hoping for an insurance settlement fair to all sides and Hughes goes away.  More likely is the Twins eat the remainder at some point and cut him (this will be determined by the owner as to what his feeling is about losing the money).

[USAFChief]

I will again expresss my doubt the Hughes contract was insured.

[howeda7]

His best case scenario isn't worth keeping. Mejia, Duffy etc. are already better options. So are Gonsalves and Romero obviously. Just bite the bullet. 

[laloesch]

 

I will again expresss my doubt the Hughes contract was insured.

 

Why?  It's universal across both leagues to insure high dollar long term player contracts and Hughes is in that category.  Most insurance policies on players are in 3 year intervals.  Policies cover between 50-80% of the total contract value with premiums as high as 10% of the contract’s annual value. 

[The Wise One]

 

Santana had a .400 BABIP that year and pretty much everybody knew he was due to regress because nobody gets that lucky two years in a row.

 

There is nothing to indicate Mejia's rookie campaign was luck-fueled. He posted pretty solid numbers across the board and luck had nothing to do with his roughly league-average performance.

 

And he's not a one-pitch guy. While his fastball was below average (-5.8 runs), his slider was neutral (+0.1 runs) and his curve was pretty good (+1.1 runs). His change certainly needs work, as he was -5.6 runs with it while throwing it only 18% of the time.

Mejia throws 50% fastball and they are negative Some sites says he uses the curve 5%, some 15% they can't differentiate between the curve and the slider.  Worse outcomes were  prevented by pulling him so early. Not necessarily luck, but not kept in for skill.

  Santana got base hits from infield hits and little line drives over the infield. Likely better defense and more careful pitching took care of Santana.  The parallel to Mejia is that when teams figure out what you do with a large enough sample size they can make you an ineffective player.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why?  It's universal across both leagues to insure high dollar long term player contracts and Hughes is in that category.  Most insurance policies on players are in 3 year intervals.  Policies cover between 50-80% of the total contract value with premiums as high as 10% of the contract’s annual value. 

If Hughes was insured for a 3 year interval when he signed his extension (December 2014), that would be expired by now. And I'm sure no insurer would offer a policy to cover him again, after multiple shoulder surgeries.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mejia throws 50% fastball and they are negative Some sites says he uses the curve 5%, some 15% they can't differentiate between the curve and the slider. Worse outcomes were prevented by pulling him so early. Not necessarily luck, but not kept in for skill.

Santana got base hits from infield hits and little line drives over the infield. Likely better defense and more careful pitching took care of Santana. The parallel to Mejia is that when teams figure out what you do with a large enough sample size they can make you an ineffective player.

The best hitters in baseball history can’t touch Santana’s .400+ BABIP. It wasn’t defense, it wasn’t pitching, it was completely luck-based.

 

We can all agree the Mauer is possibly the greatest pure hitter of his generation, definitely top five. His BABIP is under .350 last I checked. Miggy in his prime had a BABIP of .360.

[howieramone2]

 

If Hughes was insured for a 3 year interval when he signed his extension (December 2014), that would be expired by now. And I'm sure no insurer would offer a policy to cover him again, after multiple shoulder surgeries.

An insurance contract can be for any length. In fact it can be continuous. Theo would be a fool for not insuring Darvish's contract for 6 years.

[USAFChief]

 

Why?  It's universal across both leagues to insure high dollar long term player contracts and Hughes is in that category.  Most insurance policies on players are in 3 year intervals.  Policies cover between 50-80% of the total contract value with premiums as high as 10% of the contract’s annual value. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/community/insurance-in-baseball-is-like-a-black-hole/

 

it's not universal, and insurance has gotten so expensive I doubt the Twins insured Hughes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

An insurance contract can be for any length. Theo would be a fool for not insuring Darvish's contract for 6 years.

I was going by what the other poster referenced: "The policies generally run for no more than three years and are renewable with a physical."

 

https://www.quora.com/How-much-do-MLB-teams-pay-to-insure-their-players

 

I would guess that policies longer than 2-3 years, especially for pitchers, are cost prohibitive for teams, because they are extremely risky for insurance companies. You might be paying ~50% of the salary in premiums.

 

Also from that link: "Most policies have preexisting condition clauses. If a player has a history of a particular kind of injury companies will not cover or it or the premium will be cost prohibitive. This is particularly noticeable with pitchers who have had ulnar collateral ligament replacement (Tommy John Surgery) or shoulder surgery."

 

Darvish already had Tommy John surgery, so his insurance will likely cost more and have a more limited term/coverage.

 

Back to Hughes, he never had surgery before his extension, but he missed the first half of the 2011 season with shoulder soreness. That could have been a preexisting condition affecting any insurance policy for him.

[laloesch]

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/community/insurance-in-baseball-is-like-a-black-hole/

 

it's not universal, and insurance has gotten so expensive I doubt the Twins insured Hughes.

 

This says nothing.  It's still universal in both leagues to insure high dollar contracts.  Do you have any proof that Hughes is not....didn't think so

[The Wise One]

 

The best hitters in baseball history can’t touch Santana’s .400+ BABIP. It wasn’t defense, it wasn’t pitching, it was completely luck-based.

We can all agree the Mauer is possibly the greatest pure hitter of his generation, definitely top five. His BABIP is under .350 last I checked. Miggy in his prime had a BABIP of .360.

About .040 is the usual difference between batting average and BABIP the rest is luck. It wasn't entirely luck. The spray charts for where Santana hit balls changed only in that he wasn't getting  the line drive hits and the short infield hits became outs. If they defended better in the first place he would not have gotten the hits. Playing an anemic team in 2014 I doubt there was a whole lot of planning/scouting of Santana

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This says nothing.  It's still universal in both leagues to insure high dollar contracts.  Do you have any proof that Hughes is not....didn't think so

You yourself said contracts were insured for 2-3 year periods. That would have expired now for the Hughes extension. So even if he was insured at one point, he likely isn't any more, unless you believe the Twins went beyond industry standards for insurance.

 

Also, what is the threshold for "high dollar contracts"? Hughes last year made $13.2 mil, which ranked no better than 87th in MLB per B-Ref. And that's due to backloading, he ranked no better than 131st at the beginning of his deal. It's not clear from your information that insurance is "universal" among that level of contract, especially with an injury history like that of Hughes (missed half of 2011 with shoulder issues, among other issues from his Yankee years) which could result in prohibitively high premiums.

 

Here's an article that references a lack of insurance on Sandoval's contract, and also includes a telling example from Brandon Webb:

https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/4xzx83/why-is-mlb-still-without-league-wide-contract-insurance

 

 

Consider the example of pitcher Brandon Webb. Pitchers are particularly risky, as far as insurers are concerned. "Pitchers receive a much higher frequency of disability or injury than position players," Burns said, and noted that premiums for pitchers who have experienced "severe arm trauma" (such as Tommy John surgery) cost teams about 20 percent more, on average, than those without a history of injury.

But Webb had been the poster boy for durability: going into the 2009 season, the 29-year-old Arizona Diamondbacks ace had tossed 1,315.2 major league innings and spent just 15 days on the disabled list in 2003, his rookie season, for right elbow tendinitis inflammation. He never underwent surgery for an elbow or shoulder ailment, which is the typical "red flag" for an insurer. The Diamondbacks were reportedly prepared to offer Webb a three-year, $54 million extension, but when the team failed to secure contract insurance in the open market, they had to pull their offer. He had even passed the physical.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

When Nolasco hit the DL for the first time with the Twins back in 2014, the existence and details of the team's insurance on his contract was almost immediately reported in the media:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/07/08/twinsights-insurance-policy-covers-twins-against-extended-absence-for-ricky-nolasco/

 

We're entering year 4 of Hughes' physical ailments with the Twins, and I haven't seen any reporting about the existence of a team insurance policy on his contract, much less if and how it would apply. Occam's Razor suggests it doesn't exist or apply, particularly now in 2018.

[Mr. Brooks]

This says nothing. It's still universal in both leagues to insure high dollar contracts. Do you have any proof that Hughes is not....didn't think so

The first paragraph of the linked article disproves your statement that insurance of high dollar contracts is "universal".

 

From there it goes on to give several reasons why it's fair to conclude that Hughes' contract may not be insured.

[yarnivek1972]

This says nothing. It's still universal in both leagues to insure high dollar contracts. Do you have any proof that Hughes is not....didn't think so

Do you have any proof that Hughes’ contract is insured?

 

I’ll hang up and wait for your answer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why are we even talking about insurance in regards to Hughes? He's not disabled, he's actually pitching. I don't think there is any insurance policy that covers losing a few MPH off your fastball.

[yarnivek1972]

Why are we even talking about insurance in regards to Hughes? He's not disabled, he's actually pitching. I don't think there is any insurance policy that covers losing a few MPH off your fastball.

Maybe if the Twins run him out there he’ll get severe neck strain from watching all the rockets launched while he is on the bump. Maybe that would be a covered injury.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

About .040 is the usual difference between batting average and BABIP the rest is luck.

I'm sorry but this argument is the tail wagging the dog. Of course a guy's batting average is going to follow his BABIP unless his strikeout numbers and/or home run numbers are aberrant. Your argument doesn't counter my point that Santana's season was luck-based, you simply used what is generally a correlative stat to show that he (probably) had a high BABIP that season.

 

Also, Santana's BA/BABIP difference was about .085 that season so I'm not really sure what you're getting at here.

[The Wise One]

 

I'm sorry but this argument is the tail wagging the dog. Of course a guy's batting average is going to follow his BABIP unless his strikeout numbers and/or home run numbers are aberrant. Your argument doesn't counter my point that Santana's season was luck-based, you simply used what is generally a correlative stat to show that he (probably) had a high BABIP that season.

 

Also, Santana's BA/BABIP difference was about .085 that season so I'm not really sure what you're getting at here.

It was not 100 percent luck driven. he took what the defense gave him. How much simpler of an argument than that.  One does not get that lucky to have the number of infield hits that Santana had. If all you recite is a high babip is purely luck and ignore the how Santana got hit one year and how it was taken away.   Are you going to argue that Mejia was unlucky because he has had a high BABIP?

[Riverbrian]

Things have gotten strange. To quote John Lennon... "Most Peculiar Mama". 

 

Normally people argue WITH insurance. 

 

Yet... here we are arguing ABOUT insurance.