Article: Brian Dozier: I'll Be A Free Agent

[Matthew Lenz]

The only way I sign Dozier is if it's a 3 year deal or less.  This probably won't happen as everyone fights for a long contract, but I think he has another solid 3 years in the tank.

 

It will be interesting to see what next years off season looks like.  Are teams going to make guys wait to sign so they don't have to pay the draft pick compensation?  I know Ian Desmond is less of a talent than Dozier is, but this is what teams did with him a couple years ago.

[TFRazor]

 

If you compare his 2017 with his 2015, you will find that his numbers were almost identical, other than the ones driven by his BABIP that was about 40 points higher in 2017 than 2015, and about 25 points higher than his career. 

 

To add to that, he will be 31 this season and age-based regression will continue.  Already lost a step on the bases (16/23 SB, 69.5% last season) and will not improve.  

 

How many 31 year old players got big money this off-season?   He will be older than Jay Bruce was this off-season.  Will he get a Jay Bruce type contract?   And there should be no argument that Bruce is more valuable than Dozier.

 

You'd actually have a huge argument if you try to claim Jay Bruce is more valuable than Dozier

[SF Twins Fan]

 

But the important part is that he did say that he want to become a free agent and how much he is looking forward to it.  And by talking to someone with press credentials in a non-confidential manner, it had to be almost certain that it will be "paraded around" some place or another...

 

He could have said on the subject what Mauer did in a similar 1-1 interview, and call it a day.  Here is what Mauer said:

 

“I really just want to enjoy this season and go out and play some baseball. I’m going to enjoy this year.”

 

I suspect that you did not put those words in Dozier's mouth, and I suspect that you did not hold a gun to his head...

 

Mauer and Dozier are at two different stages in their career, so that comparison doesn't work.

[sloopjont]

Dozier is the kind of person and player that'd be nice to have as a Twin for life.

[AceWrigley]

<<How many 31 year old players got big money this off-season? He will be older than Jay Bruce was this off-season.Will he get a Jay Bruce type contract? And there should be no argument that Bruce is more valuable than Dozier.>>

 

Here's one argument:  2017 Brian Dozier  4.4 WAR age 30, 2017 Jay Bruce 2.9 WAR age 30.

[spanman2]

 

Well, then the Twins should give him a qualifying offer.  The draft pick they will get will have more value than Dozier for them, especially, since apparently he does not seem to want to be a Twin any longer.  Not very smart for him to start talking about this, especially in this environment regarding FA compensation and offers...

I didn't see anything that he said that implied 'he does not want to be a Twin any longer'.  He is looking forward to becoming a FA and having teams bid for his services.  What is wrong with that?  How do we know that a draft pick would hold more value than Dozier?  We have the same opportunity as every other club in that sense if he does become a FA.  My thought is he wants a 5 or 6 year deal.  If the Twins seriously want him back my gut tells me the max they would offer would be 4 preferably 3 in their eyes.  I don't see him taking 3.  If the $$$/yr. makes him feel good I could see him taking 4 and staying with the organization that gave him a shot. Then you need to ask yourself do we forward think to the trade deadline?  If he is raking do see what teams would be willing to offer in a trade?  Or if we are in position in the standings do we say lets go for it WS or bust and look at adding pieces at that point in time to make the club even better?  Lots of decisions/scenarios to go through for certain.  WIN TWINS.

[TFRazor]

Just because Dozier will be hitting free agency doesn't mean he won't resign with the Twins. Don't forget, next offseason is probably the worst possible time for Dozier to be a free agent as it's probably the best class in history. All of the contenders are going to be chasing much bigger names than Brian, while he's not really in any of the rebuilding teams' windows of contention. Just a quick list of some guys who may be available (with their ages next offseason):

 

1. Bryce Harper (26)
 

2. Manny Machado (26)
 

3. Clayton Kershaw (31)
 

4. Josh Donaldson (33)
 

5. David Price* (33)
 

6. Craig Kimbrel (30)
 

7. Charlie Blackmon (32)
 

8. Daniel Murphy (34)
 

9. Elvis Andrus* (29)
 

10. Andrew Miller (33)

 

For what it's worth, Dozier was 11th on this list.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/08/21/mlb-2018-free-agent-class-bryce-harper-manny-machado/585368001/
 

[Steve Lein]

If Dozier's out (I don't think the FA market will be very big for him), you slide Polanco to 2B and Gordon takes over SS.

 

I'd prefer Dozier stay 'cause he's awesome, but Twins are set up to be fine without him if it happens.

[USAFChief]

Dozier has been a fantastic player for the Twins, and I hope he has another fantastic season. 

 

But he owes them nothing, and vice versa.

 

Offer a QO, and let that dictate 2019.

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

I'm guessing other teams will offer more years, albeit for a smaller AAV.

I'd be quite comfortable going 4 years, wince but still do it for 5 years, and walk at 6.

I would probably knock each of those 3 down one year.    Overpay for a 3 year and rationalize that part of it is paying him for the great value he has given us.    No need to try to extend him this year at any rate.   Much like Mauer back in the day, his value isn't going to get much higher and could possibly be quite a bit worse by the end of the year.

[markos]

 

Just because Dozier will be hitting free agency doesn't mean he won't resign with the Twins. Don't forget, next offseason is probably the worst possible time for Dozier to be a free agent as it's probably the best class in history. All of the contenders are going to be chasing much bigger names than Brian, while he's not really in any of the rebuilding teams' windows of contention. Just a quick list of some guys who may be available (with their ages next offseason):

 

1. Bryce Harper (26)
 

2. Manny Machado (26)
 

3. Clayton Kershaw (31)
 

4. Josh Donaldson (33)
 

5. David Price* (33)
 

6. Craig Kimbrel (30)
 

7. Charlie Blackmon (32)
 

8. Daniel Murphy (34)
 

9. Elvis Andrus* (29)
 

10. Andrew Miller (33)

 

For what it's worth, Dozier was 11th on this list.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/08/21/mlb-2018-free-agent-class-bryce-harper-manny-machado/585368001/
 

I think there is a good argument that Dozier will be the #4 position player after Harper, Machado and Donaldson. 

 

The Angels, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers and Nationals all might be in the market for a 2B next offseason. I'm guessing Dozier gets a deal somewhere between Lorenzo Cain and JD Martinez this year: 5yr, $90M.

[blindeke]

Exactly. If he has a good year, the Twins give him a QO and most likely he gets kinda screwed: either he takes it (and he probably won't) or he sits around forever waiting for a multi-year deal for a 2B from someone, which will come in low.  

 

If he does take it, fine enough. That's a lot of money but it's only a one-year commitment. 

 

QO will be north of $18 mill next off-season. He could just sign that and get a 100% raise.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Dozier has been a fantastic player for the Twins, and I hope he has another fantastic season. 

 

But he owes them nothing, and vice versa.

 

Offer a QO, and let that dictate 2019.

 

I agree and good luck to him.

 

I would also add, that in the hypothetical situation in which a player WANTED to stay with his club past his current contract but the club had at that time not approached him about a contract extension, jabbering away about the excitement of free agency to the media would probably be the way I'd go to see if I could get their attention.

[waker107]

I think it's a perfect situation for both the Twins and Dozier.  Dozier deserves to be on a competing team with WS aspirations.  The climate in the league right now is run producing second basemen like Dozier, Altuve, Ramirez, Murphy, Schoop, Lowrie. Of which only Schoop and Ramirez had any defensive value according the fangraphs.

 

The top 10 2nd basemen in baseball produced 43.9 WAR compared to the top 1st basemen who produced 43.6 which is amazing considering the salaries of some 1st basemen out there versus 2nd.

 

Dozier (and the other top 10 2B's) should realistically be paid like a run producing 1st basemen and any team that doesn't have that is missing out and not looking to compete in this climate. I hope the twins see this and work to get him in the offseason/major extension or trade him and get something as vital to compete now against the other teams in our league (NY, CLE, HOU). 

[Cap'n Piranha]

I think the x-factor in whether or not the Twins bring back Dozier is Royce Lewis. If Royce is holding his own in AA at the end of the year, 2 of the Twins’ top 3 prospects will be middle infielders hitting the majors in 2019. Add in Polanco, who had a better OPS in the second half than any year of Dozier’s career, and shelling out 8 figures a year for an aging guy whose best tool is power, yet refuses to bat anywhere but lead off, becomes a fairly silly proposition.

[twinfan]

Dozier is a very good second baseman and a very good power hitter but one player does not make a team. While the Twins have probably made a mistake by not extending him earlier, we will see if he becomes trade bait in July- whether we are in it or not. If we need a starter, he could bring a good one from the NL or even another AL contender. Gordon is almost ready and could step in if necessary. 

[markos]

 

If Dozier's out (I don't think the FA market will be very big for him), you slide Polanco to 2B and Gordon takes over SS.

 

I'd prefer Dozier stay 'cause he's awesome, but Twins are set up to be fine without him if it happens.

I'm inclined to agree with this (just replace Dozier with Gordon), but it has to be said that Gordon, most likely, is going to replace only something like 50% of Dozier's value. It is going to be very hard to gain ground on the other playoff contenders if the Twins took a step backwards because they replaced a very good player with an average-at-best player.

[gocgo]

After this past offseason, I'm not sure I'd be that excited about hitting the free agency market.  Teams are waiting it out and bargain shopping.

[Drew]

I just skimmed this but did I hear Jay Bruce is our new 2B? I'm beyond excited about that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm inclined to agree with this (just replace Dozier with Gordon), but it has to be said that Gordon, most likely, is going to replace only something like 50% of Dozier's value. It is going to be very hard to gain ground on the other playoff contenders if the Twins took a step backwards because they replaced a very good player with an average-at-best player.

True, but the Twins have some pitching help on the way in the next year or so. That will counteract some of the offensive numbers lost if/when Dozier goes to another team.

 

Plus, Polanco/Dozier is not a particularly good middle infield. Gordon/Polanco should be better in that regard.

[Lefty]

This isn't the NFL Thrylos, 2nd round picks MIGHT pan out someday, but saying that a 2nd round pick is worth more than Dozier is ridiculous.  He's hit 20-30 jacks each year for the past few, he's played good defense, and he seems to be a decent guy that doesn't stir the pot in the clubhouse.  Would love to see him get a good contract out of us and stay here for a few more years.  

 

We need to forget the Terry Ryan way, flipping good players for prospects.  Having good players should be the goal.  We have one, lets not make the mistake of dumping him to get the possibility of another one.  

 

I hope Gordon works out at some point, he's the shiny new toy that everyone wants to use NOW.  We'll bring him up, dump Dozier and then we'll wish we had back those times when our 2B was the most productive hitter season after season.  HR, SB, Runs, and RBI.  This guy produces.

[Sssuperdave]

So, Dozier didn't say he doesn't want to be a Twin any more, and only one person is arguing that he should have said anything differently, but I'd like to address something it brings to my mind even though no one is saying it.

 

I think the concept that a player should be loyal to a particular team is just silly. As soon as production drops meaningfully, any MLB team will not hesitate to kick a player to the curb as soon as their contract allows. In fact, fans on this very site would be up in arms if the team did not. Why should there be a double standard? I mean, Dozier himself was heavily shopped for a trade last winter. Why should he be want to remain a Twin when they would have had no qualms about shoving him out the door if the right offer had come along?

[Steve Lein]

 

I'm inclined to agree with this (just replace Dozier with Gordon), but it has to be said that Gordon, most likely, is going to replace only something like 50% of Dozier's value. It is going to be very hard to gain ground on the other playoff contenders if the Twins took a step backwards because they replaced a very good player with an average-at-best player.

 

This is why I included the note about "set up to be fine without him."

 

Sure, you lose 30+ homers and a decent OBP from the 2B position, but you just added more thump and OBP at DH (Morrison), Sano is going to hit plenty of HR's, Rosario turned into a slugger, Kepler can improve his power, Buxton can improve his power. I love Brent Rooker in the system for power output...

 

Honestly to me, all the Twins would be losing is power from a position that doesn't need it, that is going to be made up by others who aren't hitting leadoff (i.e.: They'll have more RBI opportunity). 

 

This wouldn't be that bad to me - even if Gordon's OPS doesn't break .700.

[bird]

 

You are over-rating Dozier.  If he were worth anything more, he would had been a Dodger last off- season.  An overpaid second baseman is a huge luxury for most teams out there.

 

Are you perhaps under-rating him? I recall you doing that with another highly visible and outspoken team leader in the past, Michael Cuddyer, and can't help but draw a comparison. Makes me wonder if his extraverted nature impacts your assessment of his baseball talent, skills, and value. Remember how dead wrong you were about Cuddyer when you suggested he was so bad they should just DFA him? 

[Brandon Warne]

 

But the important part is that he did say that he want to become a free agent and how much he is looking forward to it.  And by talking to someone with press credentials in a non-confidential manner, it had to be almost certain that it will be "paraded around" some place or another...

 

He could have said on the subject what Mauer did in a similar 1-1 interview, and call it a day.  Here is what Mauer said:

 

“I really just want to enjoy this season and go out and play some baseball. I’m going to enjoy this year.”

 

I suspect that you did not put those words in Dozier's mouth, and I suspect that you did not hold a gun to his head...

 

Mauer career earnings - $195 million

Dozier career earnings - $12 million

 

Even after this year ($9 million), only then will Dozier surpass what Mauer made in just the last year ($24 million to $23 million).

[Thrylos]

 

Are you perhaps under-rating him? I recall you doing that with another highly visible and outspoken team leader in the past, Michael Cuddyer, and can't help but draw a comparison. Makes me wonder if his extraverted nature impacts your assessment of his baseball talent, skills, and value. Remember how dead wrong you were about Cuddyer when you suggested he was so bad they should just DFA him? 

 

This is not about Cuddyer.  That's another story, but since you brought it up, the issue I had with Cuddyer started with his performance at game 163 at the WSux and what he said just afterwards.  Another story and long time ago. 

 

Again:  If the baseball industry perceived that Dozier had as much value as some of the Twins' fans around here do, he would had been a Dodger right now.   Also, the people are talking about the value of Dozier's "leadership" to the Twins seem to keep forgetting that in his career year the Twins lost 103.

 

I value him as much as the industry does.

 

No issues with his extraverted nature.  Escobar has an extraverted nature as well, and I think that he will be a great replacement for Dozier.  Matter of fact, for the "bomb" loving fans, if Escobar had the same PAs that Dozier had last year, he would had hit 30 HRs...

[Thrylos]

 

 

Mauer career earnings - $195 million

Dozier career earnings - $12 million

 

Even after this year ($9 million), only then will Dozier surpass what Mauer made in just the last year ($24 million to $23 million).

 

 

So what?  There is one thing wanting to do something, and another publicly saying that you want to do something.

[Brandon Warne]

 

So what?  There is one thing wanting to do something, and another publicly saying that you want to do something.

 

If you don't want to know the answer to the question, don't ask it.

If you didn't think this was the answer to the question you didn't want answered, chances are you were only kidding yourself. 

 

[strumdatjaguar]

Twins have mucho depth at middle infield.   I don't want the Twins to offer more than three years, and would not wnat to see them break the bank.   Dozier wil be dealt at the deadline if the Twins falter this year, or he will help to lead us to the promised land of the playoffs and then signor leave.   The Twins can wait!!!

[jkcarew]

Nothing to see here.  I would have questioned everything I thought I knew about Dozier as a competitor if he had decided to forgo free agency.  I love him based on his offensive production and based on the way he plays.  But, based on our organizational depth, I wouldn't expect the Twins to be super aggressive trying to sign him.

 

Mauer is a completely different personality and in a completely different situation.  I fully expect his approach to free agency to be different than Dozier's.