Article: Lance Lynn to the Twins?

[Mr. Brooks]

I read that too, claims he had 2 surgeries last year, feeling great, and been working on a slider this past off season. Thinks he's got it down. So the question is where's his velo? My guess is to the Twins Brass, is if he can get it up to 85 to 90, throw in his off speed, he's our man. After all, they owe him $25M over next 2 years. (What in the world was Ryan smoking when he extended Hughes). Its the Twins Way to get their money's worth out of Hughes. So, if Hughes arm is still attached when camp ends, it wouldn't surprise me, he's the 4th starter until Santana's back, then pushed back to 5th starter. If not, he'll be back n the pen.

Hughes can't be effective throwing 85-90.

[nicksaviking]

I read that too, claims he had 2 surgeries last year, feeling great, and been working on a slider this past off season. Thinks he's got it down. So the question is where's his velo? My guess is to the Twins Brass, is if he can get it up to 85 to 90, throw in his off speed, he's our man. After all, they owe him $25M over next 2 years. (What in the world was Ryan smoking when he extended Hughes). Its the Twins Way to get their money's worth out of Hughes. So, if Hughes arm is still attached when camp ends, it wouldn't surprise me, he's the 4th starter until Santana's back, then pushed back to 5th starter. If not, he'll be back n the pen.

Both of Hughes' off speed pitches are emphatically his worst. He only picked up his change again last year after shelving it for half a decade to try to work in more off speed stuff. If he doesn't get his velocity back he's cooked, which is too bad.

[tvagle]

Couldn't find (ok, maybe I didn't look very hard (or at all)...someone will have to explain to me how to actually find what your searching for on TD as my experience is that it's great for catching up on 5 year old posts) what was I going to post....yes...

 

Couldn't find the Predict a Twins Starting Pitcher Signing topic so I'll post this here instead...

 

The next big Twins SP signing will be June 4th immediately following the start of the Rule 27 draft (or whatever arcane name/number there is for the Amateur Draft) and the pitcher will be whoever is still not signed by then, contract will be 1 year (actually the rest of the season) for a pro-rated portion of $15M

 

Call it the TR Morales Maneuver

 

This will be followed by a Falvine Flip on July 30th sending the TR Morales Maneuver player to the Yankme's for RHP's Ben Heller and Giovanny Gallegos both of who were 15-0 for Tampa Tarpons (don't get those 3rd consonants mixed up) and Trenton Thunder

 

The boys will use the Falvine Flip along with a mysterious "We Take Care of Our Own" message on the clubhouse whiteboard to rally and secure the 2nd Wild Card...you know the rest

[rdehring]

 

I read that too, claims he had 2 surgeries last year, feeling great, and been working on a slider this past off season. Thinks he's got it down. So the question is where's his velo? My guess is to the Twins Brass, is if he can get it up to 85 to 90, throw in his off speed, he's our man. After all, they owe him $25M over next 2 years. (What in the world was Ryan smoking when he extended Hughes). Its the Twins Way to get their money's worth out of Hughes. So, if Hughes arm is still attached when camp ends, it wouldn't surprise me, he's the 4th starter until Santana's back, then pushed back to 5th starter. If not, he'll be back n the pen.

I think it is Mr. Hughes wanting to give the Twins something in return for the checks he has been cashing.  Remember, he is the guy who turned down the opportunity to come in for a inning or two of relief the last weekend of the season which would have earned him a nice incentive.  Based on that event, the guy has character which will drive him to perform for his employer.

[old nurse]

 

Steamer projects Odorizzi at exactly 1 WAR.

Either way, you say they'd be 15th, my immediate guess was about 19th.
Not far enough off for me to get worked up about.
Still not very good, IMO. But, an improvement.

Steamer has him performing worse than any other prediction model.   Use the worse value, it justifies your opinion.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If Gibson has indeed turned some type of corner, and we get second-half 2017 Gibson out of the 4-5 hole, it's better than "barely too 20."

 

We know what Santana can give. Last won't happen again, but he'll pitch deep into games and give you an ERA around 4. Solid mid rotation guy.

 

Lynn would likely be very similar to Santana. Again, solid mid-rotation guy.

 

Berrios is the key. He's the real "ace," going forward IMO. I think he establishes himself as one of the best young starters in the game this year. He's a legit front-end guy with strikeout stuff.

 

Odorizzi should be fairly solid. High-floor there, but also some ceiling left, IMO.

 

Add those guys to a Gibson pitching like he did in the second-half last year, and that's potentially a very nice rotation.

if and that’s a big if, everything works out right, that’s a middle of the pack rotation

[nater79a]

 

Twins rotation was 19th in ERA last year, 23rd in FIP, 24th in innings pitched. And keep in mind, whatever we might gain from Lynn, Odorizzi, etc. could be partially offset by a loss from Ervin, both through missed time and likely regression.

 

Good point on possible Erv regression.  Even when he comes back "healthy", do we really know whether his finger will allow him to bust the slider like before? Plus, he's not getting any younger.

[wabene]

Hughes needs to be back in the 92-94 range if he is truly healthy. If he is still I the high 80's by the end of spring like last year cut bait.

[Twodogs]

Do teams usually make drastic leaps by adding one replacement level starter, and one 1.5 win starter?

They do when you take negative war guys out of the rotation. You are assuming everyone they ran out there last year was at a 0 war then no, not a lot of improvement. But when you are replacing negative war guys then it is a little better than it looks on paper.

[Twodogs]

Big thing you have to look at is, is Santana going to be the same pitcher as last year?

[Twodogs]

Looks like the Yankees are going to sign Lynn

[Andrew Thares]

 

Looks like the Yankees are going to sign Lynn

Well if they are, Aaron Boone sure doesn't this so.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/aaron-boone-lance-lynn-alex-cobb-arent-really-in-play-for-yankees.html

[Twodogs]

I saw it on the MLB channel that the Yankees were in play to sign Lynn

[old nurse]

 

Twins rotation was 19th in ERA last year, 23rd in FIP, 24th in innings pitched. And keep in mind, whatever we might gain from Lynn, Odorizzi, etc. could be partially offset by a loss from Ervin, both through missed time and likely regression.

What you hope to lose are the 37 games pitched by pitchers with an ERA over 5.4. Lynn has been  Pushing Mejia back to spot starter/ injury fill in pitcher would go a long way in cleaning up that mess.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What you hope to lose are the 37 games pitched by pitchers with an ERA over 5.4. Lynn has been  Pushing Mejia back to spot starter/ injury fill in pitcher would go a long way in cleaning up that mess.

Hope, but it's not always so easy. That rotation would have a number of veterans whose leash would be fairly long, not unlike the 5.4+ ERA guys of years past.  They're not getting bounced for a couple bad starts, or maybe not even a bad month or two. Plus, they will have to make up for Ervin's missed time and possible regression.

 

I would expect some improvement overall, but given the pitchers we have added, probably modest (even with Lynn). Maybe instead of 19-24 range for ERA/FIP/innings, they could be 15-20 range.

[Brandon]

Do teams usually make drastic leaps by adding one replacement level starter, and one 1.5 win starter?

You also have to take into account all of the negative WAR they are replacing. I dont know how much that is but league average pitching over what we got from starters 8-16 last year brings us up alot. Getting Lynn probably makes us a top 10-12 out of 30.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hope, but it's not always so easy. That rotation would have a number of veterans whose leash would be fairly long, not unlike the 5.4+ ERA guys of years past.  They're not getting bounced for a couple bad starts, or maybe not even a bad month or two. Plus, they will have to make up for Ervin's missed time and possible regression.

 

I would expect some improvement overall, but given the pitchers we have added, probably modest (even with Lynn). Maybe instead of 19-24 range for ERA/FIP/innings, they could be 15-20 range.

Yeah, I don't see them cracking the top half of baseball unless two things happen:

 

1. Berrios improves significantly. I think the chances of this happening are actually pretty reasonable.

 

2. One of the castoffs or prospects comes out of nowhere and posts an ERA under 4.00 for the season. It could be Gibson, Sanchez, Hughes (lol), or Gonsalves. I think the chances of this are pretty low and I'd be happy with a 4.50 ERA from any of those guys and thrilled with anything that approaches 4.00.

[darin617]

 

I saw it on the MLB channel that the Yankees were in play to sign Lynn

I'm sure many teams would be in for the right price...

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, I don't see them cracking the top half of baseball unless two things happen:

 

1. Berrios improves significantly. I think the chances of this happening are actually pretty reasonable.

 

2. One of the castoffs or prospects comes out of nowhere and posts an ERA under 4.00 for the season. It could be Gibson, Sanchez, Hughes (lol), or Gonsalves. I think the chances of this are pretty low and I'd be happy with a 4.50 ERA from any of those guys and thrilled with anything that approaches 4.00.

 

I agree. One of the castoffs has to be pretty dang good though. I'm not thinking 3-4ish, more like 2-3ish. It'd have to be peak Sanchez or Hughes or Gibson hitting his long lost potential.

 

I would be putting my money on Trevor May to most likely be the guy if he wasn't starting off the year in his current condition and likely way behind these guys in pecking order.

[GP830]

Not worth its own thread, but Wetmore just tweeted that he has a secret surprise guest in the podcast tomorrow to talk Rays and Twins, Odorizzi, and Morrison, and more.

 

There’s no way in heck he had an early scoop on a Cobb signing is there???

[nicksaviking]

Not worth its own thread, but Wetmore just tweeted that he has a secret surprise guest in the podcast tomorrow to talk Rays and Twins, Odorizzi, and Morrison, and more.

There’s no way in heck he had an early scoop on a Cobb signing is there???

Archer and Colome probably.

[Twodogs]

Well if they got Cobb they would have no problems with clubhouse chemistry, they'd have 3 new guys all off the same team.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Well if they got Cobb they would have no problems with clubhouse chemistry, they'd have 3 new guys all off the same team.

 

It would be nice to use someone else as our farm team for a change.

[Jham]

It would be nice to use someone else as our farm team for a change.

Minnetonka Bay Rays.

[terrydactyls]

Hughes' fastball in his first outing was at 91 MPH. If he sustains that, he may be starter #5.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Apologies if I missed this reported around here:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/placing-the-remaining-top-50-free-agents.html

 

Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported in his most recent podcast that the Twins threw out a low-ball offer of about $12MM total over two years. Unsurprisingly, Lynn’s agents at Excel quickly shot that down, but it’ not a great sign when that’s the type of interest he’s fielding in early March.

[kab21]

 

Hughes' fastball in his first outing was at 91 MPH. If he sustains that, he may be starter #5.

My prediction when Anibal was signed that Hughes and Sanchez were competing for one spot in the rotation.

 

Odorizzi
Berrios
Gibson

Hughes/Sanchez
Mejia - he could get bumped to AAA if both of Sanchez/Hughes look remotely decent this spring

[Doctor Wu]

 

My prediction when Anibal was signed that Hughes and Sanchez were competing for one spot in the rotation.

 

Odorizzi
Berrios
Gibson

Hughes/Sanchez
Mejia - he could get bumped to AAA if both of Sanchez/Hughes look remotely decent this spring

I   think your hunch could be correct. It's early days yet, but if Gibson and Sanchez both look healthy and posting respectable numbers, I could see them both in the rotation to start the season. And for me, Gibson is the biggest shocker. I didn't think he had a chance after his multi-setbacks the past few years, but I hope he proves me wrong.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Doctor Wu

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I   think your hunch could be correct. It's early days yet, but if Gibson and Sanchez both look healthy and posting respectable numbers, I could see them both in the rotation to start the season. And for me, Gibson is the biggest shocker. I didn't think he had a chance after his multi-setbacks the past few years, but I hope he proves me wrong.

Given how Gibson made an actual, trackable change in his approach late last season, I think he's almost a given for the rotation. More than Sanchez, anyway.

[kab21]

 

Given how Gibson made an actual, trackable change in his approach late last season, I think he's almost a given for the rotation. More than Sanchez, anyway.

I consider Gibson almost a no doubter. Sanchez has the smell of that seasoned vet that is given too many chances for seemingly no reason at all.

However I think there is a (small) chance that Sanchez surprises us. The upside is more of the Colon level of surprise of 'this guy isn't actually terrible' though.