Article: Twins Close To Acquiring LHP Jaime Garcia?

[Loosey]

 

The Braves would be wise to demand a better prospect rather than demand the Twins (or any other team) pay the entirety of his salary. They are doing well at the gate this year. They can't be pressed against their budget.

Since they can pay, they can seek the single best prospect offered. That is so much better for them than to take a package or a lesser prospect and dollars. If a team feels stretched at the prospect they can the offer to send back a lesser prospect or cash rather than lower the bar on the return. They have a lot of time between now and the deadline. Any deal they take now would have to exceed their expectations.

Over the long term, the Twins will likely lose on this deal. It is part of doing business as a contender at the trade deadline. It is great to be a contender though. Whether it is Thorpe or Blankenhorn or Stewart or Garvin, it is going to hurt. The gamble is that the Twins go 7-6 as opposed to 5-8 in the 13 Garcia starts. Those two wins can offset that hurt.

The flip side of this argument could be that other teams in on him don't feel Garcia is worth a full-fledged high upside prospect and also are willing to take on the salary.  He is a #4 type starter with a contract up at the end of the season.  My guess is the other teams are in the Twins boat and don't have very realistic chances at the World Series, so they view Garcia as an upgrade over whatever bad starters they currently have at the back of their rotation and Garcia might help them sneak into a wild card spot.  Those teams likely will offer "pretty decent" prospects and take on cash.  To the Braves that's better than nothing and letting him walk at the end of the season.  Just my devils advocate position to the Braves eating his salary.

[howieramone2]

 

For a mediocre rental. If they do that deal Falvine should be immediately fired.

I'd extend him.

[the blade]

 

For a rental that's the epitome of league average, the give better not be too significant.

Incorrect.  He's already worth 1.1 WAR this season by Fangraphs, he has a FIP under 2 for July.  He has a K/9% near 7, also above average.  What he is a slightly above league average starter who at times has a home run and XBH problem.  Our defense will help with the latter and our catchers and ballpark may help with the former.  

 

No way are twins giving up a top prospect for him for 3 months of service.  Also, let me remind you that a "league average starter" would represent an improvement over Colon and Gibson, both are below average.  

 

For the right piece, this a solid pickup. 

[AKTwins]

They aren't giving up Gonslaves, Jorge or Stweart. My guess is the convo is currently about how much salary the Twins will. With Hughes on the 60 dayDL, insurance should be picking up how tab, so there is some money available. MY guess is that someone who we have hardly heard of in low A ball or a rookie ball is traded or a minor league lifer like Levi Michael. If anyone on our MLB top 30 is traded I will be surprised.

 

I like the move if we don't give up a top 30. With Santiago hurt, Hughes done and Bartolo looking at retirement, someone has to give us some innings. Our AA guys aren't quite ready and there is no one in AAA. Sleeves has been pedestrian this year and is not on the 40 man.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They aren't giving up Gonslaves, Jorge or Stweart. My guess is the convo is currently about how much salary the Twins will. With Hughes on the 60 dayDL, insurance should be picking up how tab, so there is some money available. MY guess is that someone who we have hardly heard of in low A ball or a rookie ball is traded or a minor league lifer like Levi Michael. If anyone on our MLB top 30 is traded I will be surprised.

I like the move if we don't give up a top 30. With Santiago hurt, Hughes done and Bartolo looking at retirement, someone has to give us some innings. Our AA guys aren't quite ready and there is no one in AAA. Sleeves has been pedestrian this year and is not on the 40 man.

Brace yourself because the Twins are definitely giving up a top 30 prospect for an established starting pitcher.

 

I expect something in the 10-15 range.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Brace yourself because the Twins are definitely giving up a top 30 prospect for an established starting pitcher.

 

I expect something in the 10-15 range.

 

Agreed. And I'm sure some of the board will cringe at the name, since that's the range of highly variable outcomes and fan favorites.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Brace yourself because the Twins are definitely giving up a top 30 prospect for an established starting pitcher.

 

I expect something in the 10-15 range.

 

Which would be an appropriate price.

[Loosey]

 

Brace yourself because the Twins are definitely giving up a top 30 prospect for an established starting pitcher.

 

I expect something in the 10-15 range.

Did you actually hear something or are you assuming that?  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Did you actually hear something or are you assuming that?  

Nope, just an assumption based on watching baseball for 30 years. Established starters don't go for nothing, nor should they.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Someone on the Braves chat site said they had some Twins related source that claimed it was a catcher.

I will be very disappointed if it is Garver. I know a lot of folks are content with Gimenez's .200 BA, as he is an interesting player, but Garver has an OPS of .912 this year. He has been hitting well all year. He's also played some 1B and OF.

If he were primarily an outfielder with those stats there are several posters here who would have spent some energy insisting that Rosario be replaced by him.

[Vanimal46]

 

Someone on the Braves chat site said they had some Twins related source that claimed it was a catcher.

I will be very disappointed if it is Garver. I know a lot of folks are content with Gimenez's .200 BA, as he is an interesting player, but Garver has an OPS of .912 this year. He has been hitting well all year. He's also played some 1B and OF.

If he were primarily an outfielder with those stats there are several posters here who would have spent some energy insisting that Rosario be replaced by him.

 

Maybe it's Rortveldt? Or however it's spelled. 

[Pitz]

Sorry to quibble, but isnt "bad" worse than "pretty bad"?

 

Being bad is just bad. But if you're pretty bad, at least you're pretty.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

[markos]

 

Nope, just an assumption based on watching baseball for 30 years. Established starters don't go for nothing, nor should they.

Yeah, I agree with your assumption. I think Garcia is not that dis-similar from the Mike Leake trade a couple years back. Leake, also a league-average-ish rental, was traded from the Reds to the Giants for two prospects, Keury Mella and Adam Duvall. Neither were top-100 guys, but both were legitimate prospects. Without working too hard to come up with comps, I think it would be something like Lachan Wells and Zach Granite.

[gunnarthor]

 

Maybe it's Rortveldt? Or however it's spelled. 

Yeah, I think I'd rather lose Garver, actually. I like Rortveldt's upside even though he's very far away.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Sorry to quibble, but isnt "bad" worse than "pretty bad"?

Being bad is just bad. But if you're pretty bad, at least you're pretty.

Important distinction? Not sure. I'm pretty bad at a lot of things.

Yet no one has ever called me 'pretty'.

Hmm...

[jorgenswest]

Whatever the deal, the debate following should be deal or no deal. It shouldn't be the Twins should have forced the Braves to take a package of lesser prospects or take more money and a lesser prospect. Neither the Braves or the Twins are pressed for money. With the demand for starting pitching greater than the supply, the Braves are in a great position of setting the bar high and have no reason to lower that bar with so much time before the deadline.

[AKTwins]

John Ryan Murphy or Stewart turner

[AKTwins]

John Ryan Murphy or Stewart turner

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Yeah, I think I'd rather lose Garver, actually. I like Rortveldt's upside even though he's very far away.

 

Agreed. Absolutely give away a 26 year old before you give away a good prospect catcher the year after he was drafted. Have you seen what Rortvedt has done since early May? He is the catcher of the future.

[gunnarthor]

 

John Ryan Murphy or Stewart turner

Turner plays for the Reds now

[John Kelsey]

 

John Ryan Murphy or Stewart turner

 

When did the Reds get involved?

[jud6312]

 

Incorrect.  He's already worth 1.1 WAR this season by Fangraphs, he has a FIP under 2 for July.  He has a K/9% near 7, also above average.  What he is a slightly above league average starter who at times has a home run and XBH problem.  Our defense will help with the latter and our catchers and ballpark may help with the former.  

 

No way are twins giving up a top prospect for him for 3 months of service.  Also, let me remind you that a "league average starter" would represent an improvement over Colon and Gibson, both are below average.  

 

For the right piece, this a solid pickup. 

And his ERA+ is exactly the league average of 100, and in virtually every statistical category he's in the bottom half to bottom third among the 36 qualifying NL pitchers.

 

See, it's easy to cherry pick numbers to support an opinion.

[jud6312]

 

John Ryan Murphy or Stewart turner

I doubt the Reds would appreciate Falvey trading Turner.

[bluechipper]

 

This keeps the clubhouse happy  and the casual Twins fan happy -- hey we're trying - just not the stat happy/prospect happy TD crowd.

 

He can't be any worse than some of the AAAA pitchers that they've started this year.

I disagree with the first sentence. Getting a steady veteran (assuming he can manage to stay healthy for a few months) is just the type of move this team needs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Turner plays for the Reds now

 

that sure would make it cheap on teh Twins' side! I like it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And his ERA+ is exactly the league average of 100

Starter ERAs are higher than reliever ERAs, though, so 100 is actually above-average for a starter.  (Starter average is generally 95)

[Mike Sixel]

Will this reach Dozier traded thread length, all for the same outcome?

 

I'm going:

 

no

maybe

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah, I think I'd rather lose Garver, actually. I like Rortveldt's upside even though he's very far away.

 

JRM would be ideal. Since he's out of options next year and they have to make a decision on him. I doubt the Braves want to take on that decision though. 

[snap4birds]

 

Between not that bad and OK.  I think.  

I was thinking it was right next to "So-so".  But I'm not sure which is higher on the scale.....