Article: The 5 Most Shocking Twins Stats So Far

[Nick Nelson]

We are now more than seven weeks into the MLB season and the Minnesota Twins are in first place at 24-18. Who would have guessed?

 

Taking a deeper dive, let's break down some of the craziest and most jarring individual stats from Twins players thus far as we near the end of May.1) Joe Mauer's GB/FB ratio: 1.25

 

Mauer has changed significantly as a hitter over the years, and there aren't many traits that have remained completely consistent over the course of his career. This one has: he has always hit the ball on the ground far, far more often than in the air. He has a lifetime 2-to-1 ratio and hasn't had a fly ball rate above 25 percent since his MVP season in 2009. This year, it stands at 34.2 percent and is nearly even with his career-low grounder rate (42.7 percent).

 

What does it mean? Well, theoretically Mauer should be in line for more extra-base hits and homers, though up to this point many of his liners have been falling short of the wall and finding gloves. His HR/FB ratio, at 5.1 percent, is due for some upward movement. Don't be surprised to see a mid-summer surge.

 

2) Miguel Sano's batting average: .310

 

This is nuts. Sano is striking out at a 35 percent rate, fourth-highest in baseball, and he is hitting well above .300. No one else in the top 10 for K-rate is batting over .270, and four are below the .200 mark. Last year, nobody in the top 10 finished with an average over .253. There is a reason for this: it's really hard to hit for a decent average when you're failing to put the ball in play so often.

 

Sano has been able to do so with a .479 BABIP that – somehow – doesn't seem all that fluky. He is absolutely crushing the ball every time he makes contact. One of my favorite writers, Joe Posnanski, had a great piece over the weekend on Sano's astonishing superiority to the rest of the league in average exit velocity. On Monday night, the slugger put the ball in play four times and each one came off his bat at more than 100 MPH. It's quite the show.

 

3) Jorge Polanco's UZR/150: 9.5

 

It should go without saying that the small sample size disclaimer applies to all of these snapshot stats, and that's especially true here. Ultimate Zone Rating is considered one of the better defensive metrics, but its accuracy can be questionable even in large samples. Over less than two months, it can be almost meaningless.

 

But still. Polanco as everyday shortstop has a positive UZR thus far (0.9) and the UZR/150 stat, which extrapolates for 150 games to provide a rough full-season projection, has him at 9.5 runs above average as we cross the schedule's quarter-point. Last year, nine MLB shortstops finished with a higher rating. Polanco, as a rookie for the Twins, rated at -10.9 in 406 innings with a UZR/150 of -32.3.

 

I'd be quicker to dismiss this if the eye test didn't so strongly back it up. He's been very solid out there.

 

4) Robbie Grossman's strikeout rate: 16.0%

 

Ever the patient specimen, Grossman has always been able to take a walk, but in the past his penchant for passing on pitches has resulted in plentiful punchouts. He entered this season with a 25 percent career K-rate, and even in his breakout 2016 campaign he struck out almost twice for every walk.

 

If his current 16 percent rate were to hold, it would be Grossman's lowest ever – even in the minors. Meanwhile, he's drawing more free passes than ever. The 27-year-old is proving to be an extremely tough out, and an underrated component of Minnesota's offensive attack.

 

5) Ervin Santana's batting average against: .134

 

Entering Tuesday's game with a .144 batting average on balls in play, it sure looked like Santana was due for some regression, especially against a ticked off Baltimore lineup that looked to be a poor matchup with its top-tier power.

 

Nah. Erv went out and tossed a two-hit shutout. Twenty-three batters put the ball in play against him and 21 were put out. His .134 OBA through 10 starts is absurd.

 

Here's some perspective: Santana now has 70 innings in the books. Last year, among all pitchers – starters and relievers – with 70-plus innings, Andrew Miller led all of baseball with a .159 average against.

 

Santana is on track for his lowest strikeout rate since 2006, and his highest walk rate ever. And he might start the All Star Game.

 

What. The. Hell.

 

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[USAFChief]

Fun with numbers.

[twinsnorth49]

I'll go with #6.......24-18.........................wut?

[yarnivek1972]

"Santana is on track for his lowest strikeout rate since 2006, and his highest walk rate ever. And he might start the All Star Game."

 

Assuming his injury is in fact minor, my guess would be Dallas Keuchel. He beat out Ervin for pitcher of the month and is still undefeated. Of course, who knows. There's 6 weeks between now and then. Add the factor of someone possibly starting the Sunday before.

[kab21]

A more unbelievable Grossman number

 

28 Hits - 25 BB's - 20 singles

 

Someone like Bonds with insane walk rates has surpassed 1:1 Hits:BB rate but there is no reason to pitch carefully to Grossman. His K:BB and BB rate just doesn't make any sense. Mauer never approached these kind of ratios fro example.

[yarnivek1972]

A more unbelievable Grossman number

 

28 Hits - 25 BB's - 20 singles

 

Someone like Bonds with insane walk rates has surpassed 1:1 Hits:BB rate but there is no reason to pitch carefully to Grossman. His K:BB and BB rate just doesn't make any sense. Mauer never approached these kind of ratios fro example.

I'm trying to think who has hit behind him most of the year, but it doesn't seem like there has been much consistency in that regard off the top of my head. Mauer mostly perhaps? Sano quite a bit lately - the reverse psychology of NOT wanting to walk the guy in front of Sano means that you stress yourself into doing just that.

[drivlikejehu]

Grossman is going to start getting more strikes. Until this year, he still chased a fair number of pitches outside the strike zone, and didn't have a great contact rate on balls or strikes. He was patient in his approach, which led to a good walk rate but also a good number of strikeouts.

 

Now, he has dramatically reduced how often he chases, while also making more contact across the board. His power has been stable.

 

What will be interesting is whether, when he starts getting more strikes, he is able to increase his power numbers.

Edited May 24, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[curt1965]

The Twins have only played 48 games. As Aaron Rogers would say -RELAX!

These are the guys that always break our hearts!!

[twinsfanstreif]

Not necessarily shocking per se, but according to some advanced statistics Kepler and Buxton are the best defensive players at their position and it's not really close. Buxton leads all OFs in Range Factor at 3.25 and it's not even close, Kepler is the best RF at 2.39 (The career active leader in CF is Lorenzo Cain with a 2.93 and the single season record is held by one Kirby Puckett with a 3.67 in his rookie season). Kepler leads all fielders in Total Zone Runs (basically runs saved above average for your position) with 14, Buxton is tied for #2 with 11 (for a little context Ozzie Smith averaged 12.5 per season for his career and Andruw Jones averaged 14). So essentially Buxton and Kepler have combined for 25 runs saved above average at their positions and pretty much played near HOF level defense. That's pretty neat

Edited May 24, 2017 by twinsfanstreif

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Defense.

[HitInAPinch]

2) Miguel Sano's batting average: .310

 

Here's another one:  So far this year, in 40 games, Miguel has 30 walks.  The previous 2 seasons?  196 games, an average of just over 53 BB's.

 

The next Jim Thome?  Stretching a bit??  

 

3) Jorge Polanco's UZR/150: 9.5

 

Consistent time at one position does wonders...

 

 

Edited May 24, 2017 by HitInAPinch

[spinowner]

So Santana has a low K-rate but still has an astonishing BAA. Last night he threw 104 pitches in a complete game. Seems to me that pitch-to-contact is working.

[Jerr]

 

The Twins have only played 48 games. As Aaron Rogers would say -RELAX! These are the guys that always break our hearts!!

There were 3 very good World Series years   

[Platoon]

The BABIP rate is one of those numbers that is like so many others. It's quoted often, but it's more complex than that. You hit line drives, your number can really be insane. You hit pop ups, and it's inane. And it's still dissed if it's too high, and dismissed if it's too low. As for RG, he has the great eye, and the patience. But like the bottom of the order hitter he is I always wondered this? Why nibble and increase his ability to get on base to around 1.000 by walking him. Make him (them) hit the ball, and lower it to their lifetime .250 average, which is why they are in those spots to start with. This isn't facing Sano and being forced to throw strikes, there is just nothing to lose here.

[Old Twins Cap]

If Buxton can hit .240 with decent pop, given the young talent the Twins have in Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Rosario, Sano, they will make some noise in MLB playoffs.

 

Add one more quality starter to Berrios and Santana and you have a way to win some series, well, if there is a bullpen of course.

[puckstopper1]

To me the most shocking stat is that the Twins are in first place in spite of an 11-13 home record, Dozier's slow start, two fifths of their Opening Day starting rotation "sent to the minors", Hughes 5.74 ERA and 1.511 WHIP, Buxton, Gimenez and Castro all hitting .200 or under, Tonkin DFAed, Belisle and Pressly with ERAs above 6.50 and the departure of DanSan. Well, maybe not the last one...

 

Nick's article and some of comments are some of the reason to balance these numbers, but it is still shocking to me that the Twins are in first place and over a month ahead of their win pace from a year ago.

[Dantes929]

People asked at the start of the season how you can expect to be better when nothing significant changes on the roster and the answer is the same as it was after the 2007 season and we lost our best pitcher and our best outfielder.   The answer is have more guys play better.    Last year at this time we had two guys on the entire roster that were not having horrible years.    One was the utility infielder (Nunez) and one was the utility outfielder (Grossman).    Now, its easier to say who is not having a great year. and there is still the feeling that they can improve to make up for regression from others.    Dozier, Buxton, Gibson,  Castro, Mejia and Berrios (just by pitching more) are all capable of playing better.       The most amazing performance has been Santana but one amazing stat is that this team can lose the next 32 games and still have a better record at that point  than last year.    This year is probably a mirage but so was last year.  

[Guest]

8. Number of minor league free agents, waivers pickups and Rule V players on active roster. (At least three more on the 40-man and DL.)

[Blake]

The biggest shock this year, by far, is the Twins road record. 

 

Over the years, the Twins just have not played well on the road.

[Tibs]

 

The biggest shock this year, by far, is the Twins road record. 

 

Over the years, the Twins just have not played well on the road.

11-13 at home but 13-5 on the road

[NCtwinsfan]

 

The biggest shock this year, by far, is the Twins road record. 

 

Over the years, the Twins just have not played well on the road.

 

Since I love comparisons - It was not until July 10 last year that the Twins had 13 road wins... and were 13-29

 

 

...and they had 5 road losses on April 9

Edited May 24, 2017 by NCtwinsfan

[raindog]

God, this article and thread are getting me irrationally excited. I'm going to go take a cold shower because I still know this can't last and I can't take the disappointment. 

[highlander]

M my fantasy bball roster is filed with the likes of Erv Santana, Dallas Keuchel, Clay Kershaw plus Sano, Dozier, Buxton. Somebody bear me to Berrios. Otherwise I have Twins and pitching. Told my buddy I want a fantasy team I can root for.

[kab21]

 

The BABIP rate is one of those numbers that is like so many others. It's quoted often, but it's more complex than that. You hit line drives, your number can really be insane. You hit pop ups, and it's inane. And it's still dissed if it's too high, and dismissed if it's too low. 

A player won't have a BAPIP as high as .472 regardless of how hard he hits line drives. That number will regress and he will still be awesome.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins have only played 48 games. As Aaron Rogers would say -RELAX! These are the guys that always break our hearts!!

 

Breaking hearts is more Vikings territory than Twins.

[LeatherAntenna]

Anyone know Kepler's average exit velocity? Just watching him the last 4-5 weeks I gotta believe that it is up on a higher side?

[Otto von Ballpark]

...and they had 5 road losses on April 9

All in one day?

[Nick Nelson]

 

Anyone know Kepler's average exit velocity? Just watching him the last 4-5 weeks I gotta believe that it is up on a higher side?

He's at 93.27, which pales in comparison to Sano's 99.9 but does rank 15th in MLB.

 

If you haven't yet, I recommend tooling around with the leaderboards and profile pages on MLB.com. They do a really good job of making the Statcast stuff prominent and easy to find. 

[NCtwinsfan]

 

All in one day?

Probably

[jokin]

 

So Santana has a low K-rate but still has an astonishing BAA. Last night he threw 104 pitches in a complete game. Seems to me that pitch-to-contact is working.

 

Santana looks in control out there...

 

But... in terms of pitch to contact...

 

Having 6 new players fully ensconced at their defensive positions- C, 3B, SS LF, RF CF- and all either excelling or providing above average performances (plus Dozier, Mauer and Vargas doing quite well on the right side of the infield) has to be a big factor in Santana's success.