Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 1.0

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are certainly different standards for vets than guys trying to break in. Gibson and Santiago are easy in my mind, healthy and have made it through multiple seasons. Gibson at least has some upside and Santiago is a place holder who can stabalize the rotation a little, protect the bullpen, and possibly flip at the deadline (a perfect guy for a rebuilding team). I would like to give May another shot, and then leave the last spot open. Hughes would get the first crack if healthy based on track record.

 

I think people generally underestimate how difficult it is for a young starter to crack a rotation day one and make it through the season. This is more to protect Berrios than anything. It's not like a rotation of Santana/Gibson/Santiago/May/Hughes (or other vet) is going to make all their starts. He'll get his chance really quick if he deserves it.

 

Protect him from what?

[Steve Lein]

I don't see any need for Berrios to be in AAA, even with the other guys in the rotation you've pegged here. If he's not in your rotation at the start, have him in the 'pen.

 

I would do this with the pitchers we currently have -

 

Starters: Santana, Gibson, May, Santiago, Berrios

 

Bullpen: Kintzler, Hughes, Duffey, Pressley, Chargois, Rogers, O'Rourke.

 

If we really like Haley, make the trade to keep him in AAA.

 

But I really hope it ends up looking more like this -

 

Starters: Santana, Gibson, De Leon, May, Berrios

 

Bullpen: FA-closer reclamation, Hughes, Duffey, Chargois, Rogers, 2nd-Lefty, Pressley

[nicksaviking]

 

I thought there was some serious talk about Hughes to the pen to make room for Berrios.  Not quite sure I see the point in Berrios starting in AAA.  That said, if they are confident that Hughes will be ready, then I have to think that they need to find a way to remove Santiago. You might need a couple of AAAA type arms in Rochester for depth purposes, but with Gonsalves likely starting in AAA and guys like Jay, Stewart, and Jorge all in AA, that makes the most sense.

 

If Falvey is putting his rotation together based on his experiences in Cleveland, one would have to think May will be in the rotation and Hughes in the pen. Cleveland appears to value velocity and an assortment of pitches from it's starters; most of them have an average velocity over 92MPH and/or regularly use four different pitches. Hughes 89 MPH FB and three pitch repertoire doesn't look like what Cleveland does.

 

On the other hand May can meet both of those criteria.

[Halsey Hall]

The way Seth laid it out now, I agree. But there'll be a half dozen changes before April 1st. I figured Tonkin had seen his last days in a Twins uniform, and have a hunch Perkins may never play again. Berrios starts in the rotation, and I have doubts with May.

 

Anyway, if there aren't a bunch of changes this will be another long season.

[drjim]

 

So last year's AAA dominance didn't mean anything, but a couple spring training starts will? I don't agree with that as how to make decisions. Last year's minor league dominance meant nothing, but this year it would?

 

Frank Viola was awful at first. He learned by actually being in the majors and facing MLB hitters. 

 

Spring training dominance would not just be numbers.

 

And I don't necessarily agree he dominated AAA last year so much he has nothing left to do. His walks ticked up and that was his clear problem once he reached the majors.

 

I don't especially care about Frank Viola's career arc. 

[Winston Smith]

Sure looks a lot like the team that just lost 103 games. Who is the top prospect in the 2018 draft?

[drjim]

 

Sure looks a lot like the team that just lost 103 games. Who is the top prospect in the 2018 draft?

 

On paper it will be even worse once they trade Dozier.

[Mr. Brooks]

Spring training dominance would not just be numbers.

 

And I don't necessarily agree he dominated AAA last year so much he has nothing left to do. His walks ticked up and that was his clear problem once he reached the majors.

 

I don't especially care about Frank Viola's career arc.

If you want to argue Berrios wasn't perfect at AAA, then OK.

But he absolutely dominated AAA last year.

[Homer Hanky]

I'm in the Berrios has to be a starter this year camp. 

I also wonder if Hughes would make a good closer... on this rebuilding team. 

 

Trade Brandon and then role with the youngsters in the rotation and move the old guys to the pen... 

[drjim]

 

If you want to argue Berrios wasn't perfect at AAA, then OK.
But he absolutely dominated AAA last year.

 

He was really good in AAA, I wouldn't argue otherwise. But I think it is clear that his command needed to be tightened up. What worked in AAA was exploited in the majors. This is not uncommon.

 

I'm not opposed to him starting in the rotation and working it out in the majors, but I think there is wisdom in keeping him down in AAA, give the other depth guys a shot, and clean it up before unleashing him. When I say "dominate in spring training" I am talking not necessarily about numbers, those don't mean much, but about showing that he has improved this weakness in his pitching. If he does that, he'll probably earn a spot in the opening day rotation. But he shouldn't be Plan A.

[drjim]

 

I'm in the Berrios has to be a starter this year camp. 

I also wonder if Hughes would make a good closer... on this rebuilding team. 

 

Trade Brandon and then role with the youngsters in the rotation and move the old guys to the pen... 

 

Putting Berrios in the pen would be a massive mistake for a team in the Twins position. No chance.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes ends up in the pen, perhaps even in spring training. One reason it makes sense to bring in another veteran starter.

[Seth Stohs]

 

'The Terry Ryan tenure ushered in a lot of very good, high-profile, high-ceiling types of prospects.'

 

Not sure we have a lot of high ceiling types, but many of our good prospects were acquired during the Bill Smith era.

 

I'd put Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Chargois, Berrios in the high ceiling category of prospects, and they were all called up last year (or the year before for Sano, and the year before that for the first Polanco cup of coffee). 

[Vanimal46]

Can't say I'm excited about the roster layout right now. Still a lot of clean up left to do. 

D Santana and Grossman should both be off the roster. 

Berrios has to be in the starting rotation. 

 

Kintzler can not be the opening day closer. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I sure hope that "out of options" as a reason for winning a roster spot has left with the old regime.

 

Like it or not, 'out of options' matters in every organization. It's a reality for them all.

 

And, the Twins haven't always kept out of option guys either. Just two years ago, they let 2 or 3 out of option guys go at the end of spring training. 

[Blackjack]

 

Q: How many new baseball operations executives does it take to not do anything? 

 

A: Two.

 

Patience grasshopper. 

 

Aside from a Dozier trade, it wouldn't bother me if they did nothing between now and the 2017 trade deadline. Give them time to evaluate the players in spring training and early in the season THEN they'll have a better idea of what they have and don't have.  That better than making some hasty moves and then regretting it later. Patience.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

So last year's AAA dominance didn't mean anything, but a couple spring training starts will? I don't agree with that as how to make decisions. Last year's minor league dominance meant nothing, but this year it would?

 

Frank Viola was awful at first. He learned by actually being in the majors and facing MLB hitters. 

 

I'm hoping we see Berrios at the MLB level.

 

However after Neil Allen's fairly scathing assessment of the organization's lack of vision and in particular their lack of enforcement of the young guys commanding their pitches, I think we may see a lot of pitchers go back a level and get remedial work. I hope it doesn't happen, but I won't be shocked if we actually see a couple of the guys in AA we were hoping to see soon actually go back to get extra attention with the instructors in Ft Myers.

 

If the front office didn't take Allen's organizational denouncement and the pitching plan he created as a result seriously, I just can't see any other reason that they would have retained him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm hoping we see Berrios at the MLB level.

 

However after Neil Allen's fairly scathing assessment of the organization's lack of vision and in particular their lack of enforcement of the young guys commanding their pitches, I think we may see a lot of pitchers go back a level and get remedial work. I hope it doesn't happen, but I won't be shocked if we actually see a couple of the guys in AA we were hoping to see soon actually go back to get extra attention with the instructors in Ft Myers.

 

If the front office didn't take Allen's organizational denouncement and the pitching plan he created as a result seriously, I just can't see any other reason that they would have retained him.

 

Good points. I imagine I will be frustrated if we basically lost a year last year, and we have to wait another 12 months beyond the expected time to see these guys (not to mention, hundreds more pitches on their arms wasted in the minors). Will make me sad if true.

 

Also, a MAJOR indictment of the previous regime, imo.....

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I think Grossman and Danny Santana are gone by spring, either traded or let loose. To me, neither of them reflect what the new front office will want in players who can both hit, at least a little, and catch the ball.

[mikelink45]

I find this realistic, but uninspiring.  My first complaint with the new regime was keeping Allen, my second would be keeping this rotation.  Santana should be traded, but the question is - will anyone want him and what we get.  If not quality I keep him.  From there on Gibson, Santiago, Hughes do nothing for me and the future - I am all in on young arms and good coaching.  I certainly do not want to add any veteran 4/5 starters either. 

 

May is a mystery.  I know most of you love his potential, I have not seen anything that makes him more than a journeyman.  Lots of players with minimum ability to play their positions and our old overpaid bugaboo still hanging in.  I believe this team has a bad case of clogged arteries. 

[Willihammer]

 

Posted Today, 03:28 AM

It’s never too early to start thinking about what the Twins 2017 roster could look like.

Yes, yes it is Seth. Go to bed!

[Homer Hanky]

 

Putting Berrios in the pen would be a massive mistake for a team in the Twins position. No chance.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes ends up in the pen, perhaps even in spring training. One reason it makes sense to bring in another veteran starter.

Agreed... 

 

Berrios must start... 

 

In fact my preference for a starting 5 would be 

 

Santana

Santiago

Berrios

Gonclaves [terrible spelling... sorry] OR Mejia [A YOUNG LEFTY] 

Gibson 

 

 

 

[DJL44]

 

D Santana and Grossman should both be off the roster. 

Berrios has to be in the starting rotation. 

 

Kintzler can not be the opening day closer. 

 

Good job analyzing the holes in the roster.

 

I am not worried about slots in the rotation for Berrios. Teams routinely use 7-8 starting pitchers during a season. "Too many" starting pitchers will quickly sort itself out in April when someone is inevitably hurt. The 10 day disabled list will also encourage the AAA shuttle if a starter is going to miss his next start. You may see 9-10 starting pitchers used this season.

 

I agree 100% that the Twins need to add a starting caliber outfielder and dump Grossman and Santana in favor of an outfielder who can play the field. Rosario should be the backup at all three positions. Yasiel Puig is actually a very good fit since he hits RH and can play defense.

 

The bullpen is all back-end guys. Swapping Duffey for May should improve the rotation AND the bullpen. A full season from Chargois like his September would be nice as well. There is plenty of room for a veteran to help solidify the bullpen.

 

[sthpstm]

When Falvey or Levine have made comments to the effect of the gift that the Pohlads have given by not requiring them to make decisions based solely on money, I think of Phil Hughes.

The contract extension was a huge error as many have stated. Being a TR move, I think he would feel more pressure to keep him in the rotation than the new guys. I realize most pitchers' numbers get worse the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, and Hughes certainly does. If you compare his (somewhat limited) RP numbers only to SP 1st time through the order numbers, he still has been just so much better as a RP. I think we move him to pen; maybe there is a Wade Davis/Andrew Miller-lite that can recoup some value from the contract.

[laloesch]

 

Here's a fun set of Buxton clips on a ridiculously cold Illinois or Minnesota day.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/211043632/byron-buxtons-5-tools-as-measured-by-statcast/

 

Let's hope he makes the next leap.  And doesn't crash into a wall when he does it.

 

I think Santiago and Gibson need to move on.  They can be marginally better if they get some breaks, but how much more upside do they have?  That might make 2017 a little more palatable, but we need higher ceilings for the next 5 years.  Move 'em.  Let's see May and some younger guys and get this thing sorted out.

 

It makes me cringe every time someone makes excuses for Gibson.  

[laloesch]

 

"Gibson was the team’s pitcher of the year in 2015, but an early season injury cost him six months"

 

 

 

What?  The guy made 25 starts last season.  

[JustinCB]

Gonna be a long freaking year

[Lefty]

I was a lot more excited last year at this time.  I think this is the year we've been looking forward to with all of the kids being penciled in for their spots to start out the year. It doesn't feel like I was hoping it would.  I hope we can keep Dozier, need to stop giving away REAL players for PROSPECTS as most will not pan out.  Hopefully the kids go a couple steps forward and we can find a way to turn some of our starting pitchers into pitchers.  I think Seth's names are in the right places, I just want those players to step up and produce and become more consistent.

[d-mac]

 

I sure hope that "out of options" as a reason for winning a roster spot has left with the old regime.

 

I hope the new regime is able to see what we have in players before they run out of options. 

[drjim]

I think there's a good chance that many of the ways people complained about the previous regime about roster construction and management are pretty much the way that all teams operate even under all different kinds of leadership groups and styles.

 

There will be organizational changes and improvements at the margins, probably most especially in talent acquisition and development, but much about roster management will be more or less the same. Decisions around keeping players that are out of options, or giving first opportunities to players with contracts, or sending younger players to the minors longer than we might like are not going to suddenly change, if for no other reason than teams like to build depth and don't like to cut loose contracts until they absolutely have to.

[davidc3915]

 

Here's a fun set of Buxton clips on a ridiculously cold Illinois or Minnesota day.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/211043632/byron-buxtons-5-tools-as-measured-by-statcast/

 

Let's hope he makes the next leap.  And doesn't crash into a wall when he does it.

 

I think Santiago and Gibson need to move on.  They can be marginally better if they get some breaks, but how much more upside do they have?  That might make 2017 a little more palatable, but we need higher ceilings for the next 5 years.  Move 'em.  Let's see May and some younger guys and get this thing sorted out.

I can watch that inside the park HR all day.  He doesn't even look like he's trying.  I'm looking forward to what's possible from him this season......thanks for posting this!