olivia11

I don't think the Twins need to trade for a top-end starting pitcher. SPs under 30 with multiple years of control are arguably (maybe with catchers) the most valuable asset in baseball right now. This means the Twins would almost definitely have to pay. Giving up a prospect like Kirilloff - who tracks to be a plus middle-of-the-order bat - and high-ceiling pitchers like Thorpe and Alcala just makes no sense to me. Especially when the Twins have several options who can put together an about league average season. PLUS, Twins starting pitchers have been above average in the AL this season. And that's including the 5th starter spot (the one originally occupied by Phil Hughes) which, last I saw, has an ERA above 6. This 5th spot, to me, is the only one that really needs to be upgraded for 2019 and I think it immediately will be by slotting in Romero. AND, the Twins actually already have top-end pitching. José Berríos has been a top 20 pitcher in all of baseball this season, firmly establishing him already - at 24 years old - as a #1 or #2 starter. He's 17th in all of baseball for WAR (with 3.0) and I think we'd all agree he's trending up. Also, Kyle Gibson is tied for 17th with Berríos and 3.0 WAR. It's also worth remembering the top-of-the-rotation potential we all saw in Fernando Romero's first 5 starts. If I'm running the Twins, I'd take my chances with this rotation: Berríos, Gibson, Pineda, Romero, Odorrizi/Mejía. Early-2019 depth: Gonsalves, Littell, potentially Mejía. Potentially May, Slegers, Stewart. Mid to late 2019 depth: add in Thorpe & Alcala. That rotation - plus these depth options - should be solidly above average. It also has a lot of high-end potential. I think the only pitchers on that list who aren't expected to be trending upward in 2019 are Odorrizi (maybe Selgers & Mejía). Am I the only one who feels really good about the Twins rotation moving forward? It's really amazing to see the progress from just 2 seasons ago when players like Tim Melville and Nik Turley made starts.

I agree with your list. I'll add three more. 1. Figure out what the Twins have with the AAA relievers and GIVE THEM INNINGS. Anderson, Bard, Busenitz, Curtiss, Reed, and Moya (now in MLB). There's so much uncertainty with the bullpen next year, the Twins need to figure out who can step up. I think Bard is a minor league free agent after the year, and the Twins need to see what they have with him and his spin rate numbers before letting him walk. 2. Call up Kohl Stewart and see if there's anything there in a relief roll. He'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft again this year and, now performing well at AAA it seems more likely he'll get taken. I'd like to see the Twins make sure they're not throwing something valuable away after investing such a high pick. 3. Call up LaMonte Wade to take over the Robbie Grossman roll. I don't think there's much chance Grossman survives the 40 man cuts this off-season and Wade seems ready (Gordon, on the other hand, seems like he could benefit from more AAA time). Let's see what Wade can offer.

These trades give me a lot of confidence in the Front Office moving forward. The Pressly trade is the first time in my Twins fandom that I can remember them trading high on a player. Plus, it just made too much sense. Pressly lead MLB in appearances which could very well increase his injury risk and also, if it continues, increase his chances of having diminished stuff in the next couple seasons. The Twins also have several relievers in AAA that could, by this time next year, be thriving in the bullpen: Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart, Gabriel Moya (now in MLB). Not all of these guys will stick, of course, but now the Twins can use Pressly's innings (and Duke's, and soon maybe Rodney's and Belisle's) to try them out. Their timing on the Eduardo Escobar trade (considering how fast middle infielders moved later) also seemed brilliant. The Dozier trade was really the only disappointment as I was hoping for a little more. While they might have gotten a little more if they traded him earlier, I don't think it would have been substantially different. Dozier majorly underperformed this year and I wouldn't be surprised if, given some of his comments this year, his leadership skills were starting to be questioned. Also, Aaron Gleeman tweets his historically-bad "late and close" numbers all the time, something other teams have to be all to aware of. So overall, I think brining back a couple prospects and not having the qualifying offer on the table is a plus. One other thought. Kind of seems like the Luis Rijo acquisition replaces Luis Gil (traded to NYY for Jake Cave). I'm not going to pretend to know anything about Rookie ball prospects, but based on what people (like Seth) are saying, Rijo seems to have just as much if not more upside. If we think of the trade as Lynn and Gil and $ for Cave, Austin, and Rijo, I think it is even more impressive. Overall grade: A

I think Kilome would be an incredible get for Escobar. Wondering, though, if the Phillies might think that's too much. Based on MLB.com's rankings (just for an easy comparison), he's Philadelphia's #7 prospect and has an overall 50 scouting grade. In the Twins system, the players with a 50 scouting grade are ranked #7-9: Brent Rooker, Blayne Enlow, and Lewin Diaz. Once Trevor Larnach is added, he'd likely rank right around here too. I'm not too high on Diaz, but even if you replaced him with the next ranked prospect - Akil Baddoo - I think it's clear that that's a lot to give up for a rental non-elite player. So, I wonder if the Twins could add in Lynn, Rodney or Duke to get a deal done for Kilome plus a end-of-top-30 or unranked prospect. In general, like Jeremy mentioned with Dozier and Duke, I think trading multiple players is a good strategy in order to get a prospect the front office really likes.

Yeah, I agree, I think every team's option 1 would look better. Which is why I think this kind of trade is too risky unless the team is really just one solid piece away from contending for a championship. IMO, the Twins are multiple pieces away. And I'd rather the Twins have a chance at 2+ pieces (at least Romero + Kirilloff) than just the one in Realmuto.

I haven't heard anything about Castro possibly not being ready for 2019. Plus, a torn meniscus isn't as serious as a torn ACL. But, even if Castro were to not play next season, I still would prefer to get pretty much nothing out of the catcher position than to give up Romero + Kirlloff + Graterol. Also, option 2 requires a lot of hope that things will work out to. Namely, that Realmuto will sign an extension, that it won't financially handicap the Twins, and that he doesn't have a significant injury playing the most dangerous position in baseball.

If the proposed trade is Romero + Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto, I'm definitely not making that trade. It's really a decision between the following options: Option 1: -5 years of control of Romero -top end, trending up prospects in Kirilloff and Graterol in the system and eventually 6 years of control (to join winning window later or be used as future trade pieces when Twins are contending for championship) -Jason Castro as starting catcher in 2019 -Mitch Garver as backup in 2019 (or if really don't believe in his defense, sign a defensive-first back up) Option 2: -Realmuto for 2019 and 2020 (possibility for signing long-term but that is far from a guarantee and would likely be very expensive) -Jason Castro as backup catcher in 2019 I think you can make a solid argument that option 1 benefits the Twins more than option 2 does. I would. Especially considering that cost-controlled young starting pitching (Romero, maybe Graterol too) is arguably the most valuable resource in baseball right now.

I'm wondering why Cody ranked Cave (39) so much lower than Granite (24). Seems to me that Cave's better power tool and Granite better speed/defense tool would put them right around the same ranking. Genuinely curious about Cody's reasoning. Very much enjoying these updated rankings with the MLB team struggling so much. Thanks, guys!

Really good article. I was against trading Gibson before I read the article and you convinced me that it could very well be the right move (all depending, of course, on a good offer). The number of teams you laid out where Gibson would be a #1, 2, or 3 starter really makes this compelling. It also makes me wonder where Lance Lynn would rank on those teams - using some combination of this year's numbers and his career averages. Maybe this also means the return for Lance Lynn would be better than we think? (Not as strong, of course, as Gibson since he's the better pitcher this season, has a lower salary, and has an extra year of control). It especially seems compelling to send him to the national league where there's more need among the playoff contenders and where Lynn has been so successful. Also. I'll add just one more thing. So far -- and from what we know -- I think the front office has proven to be really savvy on the trade market. This gives me confidence that they wouldn't trade Gibson unless they got value back that exceeds Gibson's value to the 2019 Twins. Just looking at the major trades they've made, I think we can see that they aren't pushovers on the trade market: 1- Not trading Brian Dozier to LAD for injury-prone-but-still-top-prospect Jose De Leon and likely not much more. Reportedly Falvey and Levine asked for much more - and actively wanted to trade Dozier - but did not budge when offered a sub-par offer despite the organizations need for near-MLB ready starting pitching, which De Leon was. 2 - Jaime García (and Huascar Ynoa) for Zach Littell and Dietrich Enns. You can have a problem with their decision to sell at the deadline, but this was pretty objectively a good trade. Littell is one of the youngest pitchers in the International League and looks to have a roll on the team for years to come. They got him for 37.1 innings of García. 3 - Brandon Kintzler for Tyler Watson. Again, you can have problems with deadline decision, but this feels like a solid trade for a lottery ticket who's more than a lottery ticket in Watson. Reading the write up on him in the top prospects post from yesterday really does make this feel like a risk worth taking in exchange for 26 innings of Kintzler on a team you decided was out of it. 4 - Jermaine Palacios for Jake Odorizzi. A single-A non-elite SS prospect in a system where others at his same level have passed him and playing time would've been hard to figure out for a #3-4 starter is an excellent trade. I think no matter how Odorizzi pitches this year, the process behind this is definitely a win for the Twins. 5 - Using international bonus money to get Jacob Pearson and David Bañuelos. This was particularly smart because the Twins had scouted the 2017 draft class so closely given all their picks. These were guys they knew a lot about and who have a lot of the same upside of international free agents they could've signed, but who are a couple years older and easier to scout because of it. Spending money for prospects is something the best organizations do and the Twins never seemed to before. The process - results will come later - behind these trades suggest to me that, if Falvey and Levine do trade one of their higher-value tradeable assets like Gibson, the Twins will be getting equal or greater value back.

It's nice that they updated this before adding the 2018 draft prospects. When they do, I think we can assume that Javier (#86) and Graterol (#95) - and possibly Gonsalves (#75) - will miss the top 100 cut since they usually add about 20 draft prospects and a couple international free agents. I wonder if Larnach has a chance of getting one of the last few top 100 spots after a strong college world series... although it does seem aggressive for MLB to rank him above Javier and Graterol. The Twins are also the favorite to sign Venezuelan prospect Misael Urbina on July 2 (ranked #3 international prospect on mlb.com), who likely slots in not too far away from the top 100 as well. Either way, that arguably leaves the Twins with 7-8 prospects in the top 125 range heading into 2019.

Describing something as "white" is not racist. I'm simply referring to a time when very few non-white baseball players played in MLB and many these "rules" were established. What I was suggesting was that this "tradition" came about at a time when many people were excluded from baseball and baseball traditions that have been celebrated in other countries have just as much of a claim to legitimacy as the one developed in the US. For example, Brian Dozier got mad when Francisco Lindor celebrated his home run representing the technical "away" team during the Puerto Rico series. That does not go against "baseball's rules" or "disrespect the game". That goes against a very specific idea of baseball that was, once again, developed in the US during a time when very few non-white baseball players played. Puerto Rico's baseball "tradition" is just as legitimate. I'm simply suggesting that baseball should widen its horizons.

This is ridiculous - and a big reason why I think the Twins need to make sure Brian Dozier isn't on the team next year, since he seems to be the main proponent of this kind of attitude. The "respect the game", the (white) baseball "tradition" mantra is never going to rally the young Twins core or get fans in the seats - particularly fans under 30 who are paying less and less attention to baseball. The Twins getting mad at Profar for stealing a base, or Chance Sisco for bunting to beat the shift, literally tells fans that this game isn't worth watching anymore. It tells us that the players aren't trying anymore and if any of them show the audacity to keep trying - any excitement, any energy, any will to compete - they risk getting a 95 mph fastball thrown at their head. It's the same idea as when Jack Morris suggests that the only baseball worth watching was in the 80s - the message is to stop watching the game. How are the Twins going to build a winning culture if they insist on these strict rules for when it's okay - and when it's not okay - to compete?

A slightly different point but.... I don't understand why, in 2018, the Twins haven't put more emphasis on bilingual (English/Spanish) major league coaches. They currently have Rudy Hernández (who's not allowed to be on the bench for games), Eddie Guardado and the MLB mandated translator. No matter what happens with Molitor, I'd like to see the Twins bring in some coaches who can connect better with the Spanish-speaking players. And, if they do fire Molitor, they should absolutely put a high priority on hiring someone who can speak Spanish and make meaningful connections will all the players on the roster.

What about Regi Grace?

They also forfeit the money allotted to the pick they forfeited for signing Lynn. Meaning signing Lynn meant less money to play around with and potentially allot to other picks.