olivia11

These trades give me a lot of confidence in the Front Office moving forward. The Pressly trade is the first time in my Twins fandom that I can remember them trading high on a player. Plus, it just made too much sense. Pressly lead MLB in appearances which could very well increase his injury risk and also, if it continues, increase his chances of having diminished stuff in the next couple seasons. The Twins also have several relievers in AAA that could, by this time next year, be thriving in the bullpen: Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart, Gabriel Moya (now in MLB). Not all of these guys will stick, of course, but now the Twins can use Pressly's innings (and Duke's, and soon maybe Rodney's and Belisle's) to try them out. Their timing on the Eduardo Escobar trade (considering how fast middle infielders moved later) also seemed brilliant. The Dozier trade was really the only disappointment as I was hoping for a little more. While they might have gotten a little more if they traded him earlier, I don't think it would have been substantially different. Dozier majorly underperformed this year and I wouldn't be surprised if, given some of his comments this year, his leadership skills were starting to be questioned. Also, Aaron Gleeman tweets his historically-bad "late and close" numbers all the time, something other teams have to be all to aware of. So overall, I think brining back a couple prospects and not having the qualifying offer on the table is a plus. One other thought. Kind of seems like the Luis Rijo acquisition replaces Luis Gil (traded to NYY for Jake Cave). I'm not going to pretend to know anything about Rookie ball prospects, but based on what people (like Seth) are saying, Rijo seems to have just as much if not more upside. If we think of the trade as Lynn and Gil and $ for Cave, Austin, and Rijo, I think it is even more impressive. Overall grade: A

I think Kilome would be an incredible get for Escobar. Wondering, though, if the Phillies might think that's too much. Based on MLB.com's rankings (just for an easy comparison), he's Philadelphia's #7 prospect and has an overall 50 scouting grade. In the Twins system, the players with a 50 scouting grade are ranked #7-9: Brent Rooker, Blayne Enlow, and Lewin Diaz. Once Trevor Larnach is added, he'd likely rank right around here too. I'm not too high on Diaz, but even if you replaced him with the next ranked prospect - Akil Baddoo - I think it's clear that that's a lot to give up for a rental non-elite player. So, I wonder if the Twins could add in Lynn, Rodney or Duke to get a deal done for Kilome plus a end-of-top-30 or unranked prospect. In general, like Jeremy mentioned with Dozier and Duke, I think trading multiple players is a good strategy in order to get a prospect the front office really likes.

Yeah, I agree, I think every team's option 1 would look better. Which is why I think this kind of trade is too risky unless the team is really just one solid piece away from contending for a championship. IMO, the Twins are multiple pieces away. And I'd rather the Twins have a chance at 2+ pieces (at least Romero + Kirilloff) than just the one in Realmuto.

I haven't heard anything about Castro possibly not being ready for 2019. Plus, a torn meniscus isn't as serious as a torn ACL. But, even if Castro were to not play next season, I still would prefer to get pretty much nothing out of the catcher position than to give up Romero + Kirlloff + Graterol. Also, option 2 requires a lot of hope that things will work out to. Namely, that Realmuto will sign an extension, that it won't financially handicap the Twins, and that he doesn't have a significant injury playing the most dangerous position in baseball.

If the proposed trade is Romero + Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto, I'm definitely not making that trade. It's really a decision between the following options: Option 1: -5 years of control of Romero -top end, trending up prospects in Kirilloff and Graterol in the system and eventually 6 years of control (to join winning window later or be used as future trade pieces when Twins are contending for championship) -Jason Castro as starting catcher in 2019 -Mitch Garver as backup in 2019 (or if really don't believe in his defense, sign a defensive-first back up) Option 2: -Realmuto for 2019 and 2020 (possibility for signing long-term but that is far from a guarantee and would likely be very expensive) -Jason Castro as backup catcher in 2019 I think you can make a solid argument that option 1 benefits the Twins more than option 2 does. I would. Especially considering that cost-controlled young starting pitching (Romero, maybe Graterol too) is arguably the most valuable resource in baseball right now.

I'm wondering why Cody ranked Cave (39) so much lower than Granite (24). Seems to me that Cave's better power tool and Granite better speed/defense tool would put them right around the same ranking. Genuinely curious about Cody's reasoning. Very much enjoying these updated rankings with the MLB team struggling so much. Thanks, guys!

Really good article. I was against trading Gibson before I read the article and you convinced me that it could very well be the right move (all depending, of course, on a good offer). The number of teams you laid out where Gibson would be a #1, 2, or 3 starter really makes this compelling. It also makes me wonder where Lance Lynn would rank on those teams - using some combination of this year's numbers and his career averages. Maybe this also means the return for Lance Lynn would be better than we think? (Not as strong, of course, as Gibson since he's the better pitcher this season, has a lower salary, and has an extra year of control). It especially seems compelling to send him to the national league where there's more need among the playoff contenders and where Lynn has been so successful. Also. I'll add just one more thing. So far -- and from what we know -- I think the front office has proven to be really savvy on the trade market. This gives me confidence that they wouldn't trade Gibson unless they got value back that exceeds Gibson's value to the 2019 Twins. Just looking at the major trades they've made, I think we can see that they aren't pushovers on the trade market: 1- Not trading Brian Dozier to LAD for injury-prone-but-still-top-prospect Jose De Leon and likely not much more. Reportedly Falvey and Levine asked for much more - and actively wanted to trade Dozier - but did not budge when offered a sub-par offer despite the organizations need for near-MLB ready starting pitching, which De Leon was. 2 - Jaime García (and Huascar Ynoa) for Zach Littell and Dietrich Enns. You can have a problem with their decision to sell at the deadline, but this was pretty objectively a good trade. Littell is one of the youngest pitchers in the International League and looks to have a roll on the team for years to come. They got him for 37.1 innings of García. 3 - Brandon Kintzler for Tyler Watson. Again, you can have problems with deadline decision, but this feels like a solid trade for a lottery ticket who's more than a lottery ticket in Watson. Reading the write up on him in the top prospects post from yesterday really does make this feel like a risk worth taking in exchange for 26 innings of Kintzler on a team you decided was out of it. 4 - Jermaine Palacios for Jake Odorizzi. A single-A non-elite SS prospect in a system where others at his same level have passed him and playing time would've been hard to figure out for a #3-4 starter is an excellent trade. I think no matter how Odorizzi pitches this year, the process behind this is definitely a win for the Twins. 5 - Using international bonus money to get Jacob Pearson and David Bañuelos. This was particularly smart because the Twins had scouted the 2017 draft class so closely given all their picks. These were guys they knew a lot about and who have a lot of the same upside of international free agents they could've signed, but who are a couple years older and easier to scout because of it. Spending money for prospects is something the best organizations do and the Twins never seemed to before. The process - results will come later - behind these trades suggest to me that, if Falvey and Levine do trade one of their higher-value tradeable assets like Gibson, the Twins will be getting equal or greater value back.

A slightly different point but.... I don't understand why, in 2018, the Twins haven't put more emphasis on bilingual (English/Spanish) major league coaches. They currently have Rudy Hernández (who's not allowed to be on the bench for games), Eddie Guardado and the MLB mandated translator. No matter what happens with Molitor, I'd like to see the Twins bring in some coaches who can connect better with the Spanish-speaking players. And, if they do fire Molitor, they should absolutely put a high priority on hiring someone who can speak Spanish and make meaningful connections will all the players on the roster.

What about Regi Grace?

Any chance the Twins try and trade for Jurickson Profar?

Maybe they can trade Vargas to Miami and keep Kinley? I'm not really sure what they see in Kinley, but they clearly like something and, barring an injury, there's no room for him in the bullpen. They can't expect to get much back for Vargas when teams are just waiting for them to DFA him, but this way they'd at least get to keep working with Kinley.

Love this signing! First thoughts as to how this line-up could shape up. (Not how I'd set the batting order, but how I think the Twins might). Without Sano: 1. Dozier 2B 2. Mauer 1B 3. Buxton CF 4. Morrison DH 5. Rosario LF 6. Kepler RF 7. Polanco SS 8. Escobar 3B 9. Castro C Bench: Adrianza, Grossman, Garver, Aybar With Sano: 1. Dozier 2B 2. Mauer 1B 3. Sano 3B 4. Morrison DH 5. Buxton CF 6. Rosario LF 7. Kepler RF 8. Polanco SS 9. Castro C Bench: Escobar, Adrianza, Grossman, Garver

I think giving Sanchez a 40 man spot, when there are plenty of other similar (or better) quality pitchers they could've signed to an MiLB deal, has to mean something. Yes, they could still sign Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta and then try and pass Enns, Kinley, or Vargas through waivers. But, if that's the plan, why would they sign Sanchez then? They clearly want to get a look at Kinley in camp. They were interested enough in Enns to trade for him. And they need to keep Vargas around as Sano insurance. I'm wondering if something else is going on. Option 1: They are going to acquire a SP through trade and this trade will include at least one 40 man guy. Archer (not going to happen), Odorizzi, Corbin, McHugh could all fit this profile. Option 2: They really are targeting 2019 as the true opening of the winning window and are going to use 2018 to try out as many internal guys as possible and see who steps up. This is a defensible strategy in the sense that it could work out best in the long run. Maybe you find out that a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Pineda, May, Gonsalves, and Romero will be above league average (and super, super cheap). But, if this is true, it's really going to try fans' excitement for both the product they're putting on the field and the new "savvy" front office. Either way, it feels to me like they are not sold on Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta and the combination of years/money/draft pick compensation that signing them entails.

It just seems weird to me that they couldn't sign Sanchez to a minor league deal for the same money if he makes the team (plus incentives). Why use the 40 man spot now?

Any idea on what it would take to get McHugh from Houston? Rosenthal suggested Twins might have interested in trading for him after the Darvish news broke. The Dodgers basically have 7 starters right now so it seems like it would make a lot of sense. They're ML team is loaded, so maybe they'd be looking for some high-upside, high-risk prospects who are further away to continue their window. Either way, the price has to be considerably cheaper since McHugh isn't as good as Archer, is a year older and has fewer years of team control (at likely at more money). Maybe most importantly, Houston isn't in a situation like Tampa Bay where they'll only trade him if they can get a franchise-saving return that's worth the risk of not having Archer while also trying to build a new stadium.

What about the Lynx and their 4 championships? The Lynx have easily been the best professional team in the Twin Cities over the last decade.

With Darvish, I'm wondering if the Twins can offer him a 6 year contract that is very front-loaded and includes a vesting option for the 6th year. That way, if the Twins are in a position where they need to trade him after the first 3 or 4 years, they can do so. Year 1: 30 million Year 2: 35 million Year 3: 30 million Year 4: 20 million Year 5: 15 million Year 6: 10 million (vesting option for 160 innings pitched) Total: 6 years, 140 million. 30 million during year 1 basically covers all of the Twins open payroll space for this season. 35 and 30 million years 2 and 3 takes over the Mauer and Dozier contracts which come off the books (Santana, too, during year 3). Then years 4-6 is when the Twins most need this contact to be affordable because that's when they'll be dedicating a good amount of their payroll to Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, etc. Which side says no?

My guess on the top 5 is: 1) Buxton 2) Berríos 3) Sanó 4) Lewis 5) Rosario I could also see Sanó and Lewis flopped. But I think the top two has to be Buxton and Berríos given the shortage of young, controllable top-of-the-rotation pitching in baseball right now.

I would not be looking to extend Dozier. Offer him the qualifying offer at the end of the year (16M) which he'll likely turn down and the Twins won't lose him for nothing. (Remember: the compensation pick for Cuddyer turned into Berrios).

I think that giving up the draft pick to sign Lynn or Cobb (I'm not interested at all in Arrieta) is huge. It's not only giving up someone who would immediately slot in as an organizational top 20 prospect and be a potential top 100 prospect, but it's also giving up the flexibility of the slot amount - the same flexibility that was so key to the high-upside picks of the the Twins 2017 draft. So, given that... Plan A: Sign Darvish. I would go as high as 6 years 150 million. Since there is no draft pick compensation and this is an opportunity to sign an "ace" without giving up top prospects, I would go this high. I feel like this could very realistically get it done. Plan B: See if Lynn or Cobb would accept 4 years 60 million. Factoring in the draft pick compensation, that is the max I would go. And I don't think it's enough to get either of them. Plan C: Try to trade for Archer without giving up Sano, Lewis, and both Romero and Gonsalves. This won't be enough to get Archer. Plan D: Go after second and third-tier starting pitcher targets. Odorizzi, Straily, Corbin. Also inquire about some other names that we haven't heard much about but that could be acquired via trade - like Michael Fulmer and Danny Duffy. This trade would have to include not giving up any of the MLB core (Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Mejia, Polanco, bullpen arms) Lewis, both Gonsalves and Romero, Javier, or high-upside 2017-draft guys like Rooker, Enlow, and Leach. Plan E: Sign a 5th starter type via free agency. Let competition play out in Spring Training and hope the young guys can contribute big in 2018. Put plan in motion to really improve the rotation for 2019.

I think they're trying to find their version of Corey Kluber. My guess would be that the Twins have developed some advanced metric that Kinley shows elite potential for. Still, there's going to probably be a lot of trial and error in looking for their version of Kluber. And, as of now, I would prefer to have Burdi and/or Bard on the 40-man, but I'm going to wait and see what other moves they make this offseason.

Phillies select Burdi with #4 pick

I'm not sure why people are including Royce Lewis in trade scenarios because he supposedly won't be up for 5 years. When a team has really hit on a #1 draft pick (like we're hoping the Twins have), even the high school players reach the big leagues really quick. Let's look at two recent top draft picks who were infielders drafted out of high school: Carlos Correa (#1 overall in 2012): 2012 half season: Rk, 2013 season: A, 2014 season A+, 2015: AA/AAA/MLB. MLB debut at age 20. Manny Machado (#3 overall in 2010): 2010 half season Rk/A-, 2011 season: A/A+, 2012 season: AA/MLB. MLB debut at age 19. Lewis spit his draft-year season between Rookie and A ball. Putting him on track to reach the majors as early as 2019 or 2020 if all goes to plan. That's right in the middle of the Twins winning window. Of course, plenty could go wrong, but you don't trade a #1 overall draft pick who has Carlos Correa/Manny Machado potential unless he shows you some major flaws. If I'm the Twins, Lewis is absolutely *untouchable. *untouchable, of course, qualified to mean any "sane"/realistic trade scenario.

In an MLB.com article about the Rays' trade pieces, they suggested that the Rays would have to be "overwhelmed" to trade Archer in a similar way that they were when the Cubs traded for Matt Garza in 2011. Using that trade as a baseline, I wonder if we can estimate what it might take to get Archer and if it's possible to do so without giving up Royce Lewis and both Romero and Gonsalves. 2011 Trade: Cubs Acquire: Matt Garza (3 years arb left; above average starter) Fernando Perez (OF, AAA, ceiling 4th outfielder) Zac Rosscup (RHP, 23 year old SP prospect in A+, Cubs 20-30 range) Rays Acquire: Sam Fuld (MLB OF; underwhelming) Chris Archer (RHP, Cubs #1 prospect, BA #27 in MLB) Hak-Ju Lee (SS, Cubs #4 prospect, BA #92 in MLB) Brandon Guyer (OF, Cubs #10 prospect) Robinson Chirinos (C, AA/AAA defensive-first catcher) At the time of the trade, it seems like it came down to Lee & Archer for Garza. People also generally considered this to be an over-pay for Garza. Since Archer in 2017 is probably more highly regarded than Garza was 2011, let's use this potential over-pay as a guideline. I would also think the Twins wouldn't be comfortable sending so many prospects for one player, so let's say they also try and get Alex Colome. Also, if I'm the Twins, Lewis is off the table and I am not going to trade both Romero and Gonsalves but will trade one of them. Could this potentially work? Twins Acquire: Chris Archer (RHP, 4 years control remaining) Alex Colome (RHP, 2018 first year arb eligible) Rays Acquire: Robbie Grossman (OF, MLB) [sam Fuld role] Nick Gordon (SS, Twins #2, MLB #30) [Chris Archer role] Stephen Gonsalves (LHP, Twins #3, MLB #64) [Hak-Ju Lee role] Alex Kirilloff (OF, Twins #6, potential top 100 by end of season) [Add] Tyler Jay (LHP, Twins #8) [Add] Zack Granite (OF, Twins #26) [brandon Guyer role] Kirilloff and Jay are added to make up the difference between the over-pay for the slightly-less-regarded Garza with add-ons for the better-regarded Archer plus Colome. Is this anywhere close?

I count 10 names that very likely won't be on the 40 man by November: Belisle, Colon, Gee, Perkins, Santiago, Gimenez, Gibson, O'Rourke, Recker, Vargas Bubble candidates to go off 40 man: -Buddy Boshers (he's pitched really well but depends on where he's at in the LHRP depth chart; I could see FA wanting to protect Moya over keeping Boshers) -Engelb Vielma (he hasn't hit at all in AAA and slipped out of MLB's top 30 prospects; Adrianza fits the roll of glove-first utility IF and these guys aren't hard to get off waivers; but there isn't much IF depth on the 40 man) -Nik Turley (I think we'll see him again this season in the bullpen; has the potential to take over Boshers' spot; I still think he's got potential but if he doesn't perform well this given enough of an opportunity in relief, he's probably gone) -Phil Hughes (I feel like there's a chance that Hughes and the Twins come to some sort of deal where Hughes retires; not sure how this works) -(also, I think Vargas will be taken off because he'll be out of options next season and he's had plenty of opportunities and not impressed much; FO has proven they'll make those moves) So I think up to 13 spots could open up (I think one of Turley or Boshers will stay). Of course this doesn't mean that all 13 could be filled by Rule 5 eligible guys. Twins would need to add another Catcher, clear some things up in the OF by adding a RH bat and maybe subtracting LH bat (Grossman, Palka, Granite) via trade, and then add a starting pitcher and a reliever. But we don't know when those moves might happen. With estimating 10 open spots, I would add: Gonsalves, Littell, Reed, Curtiss, Thorpe, Diaz, Stewart, Slegers, Moya, Rodriguez