olivia11

I don't think the Twins need to trade for a top-end starting pitcher. SPs under 30 with multiple years of control are arguably (maybe with catchers) the most valuable asset in baseball right now. This means the Twins would almost definitely have to pay. Giving up a prospect like Kirilloff - who tracks to be a plus middle-of-the-order bat - and high-ceiling pitchers like Thorpe and Alcala just makes no sense to me. Especially when the Twins have several options who can put together an about league average season. PLUS, Twins starting pitchers have been above average in the AL this season. And that's including the 5th starter spot (the one originally occupied by Phil Hughes) which, last I saw, has an ERA above 6. This 5th spot, to me, is the only one that really needs to be upgraded for 2019 and I think it immediately will be by slotting in Romero. AND, the Twins actually already have top-end pitching. José Berríos has been a top 20 pitcher in all of baseball this season, firmly establishing him already - at 24 years old - as a #1 or #2 starter. He's 17th in all of baseball for WAR (with 3.0) and I think we'd all agree he's trending up. Also, Kyle Gibson is tied for 17th with Berríos and 3.0 WAR. It's also worth remembering the top-of-the-rotation potential we all saw in Fernando Romero's first 5 starts. If I'm running the Twins, I'd take my chances with this rotation: Berríos, Gibson, Pineda, Romero, Odorrizi/Mejía. Early-2019 depth: Gonsalves, Littell, potentially Mejía. Potentially May, Slegers, Stewart. Mid to late 2019 depth: add in Thorpe & Alcala. That rotation - plus these depth options - should be solidly above average. It also has a lot of high-end potential. I think the only pitchers on that list who aren't expected to be trending upward in 2019 are Odorrizi (maybe Selgers & Mejía). Am I the only one who feels really good about the Twins rotation moving forward? It's really amazing to see the progress from just 2 seasons ago when players like Tim Melville and Nik Turley made starts.

I agree with your list. I'll add three more. 1. Figure out what the Twins have with the AAA relievers and GIVE THEM INNINGS. Anderson, Bard, Busenitz, Curtiss, Reed, and Moya (now in MLB). There's so much uncertainty with the bullpen next year, the Twins need to figure out who can step up. I think Bard is a minor league free agent after the year, and the Twins need to see what they have with him and his spin rate numbers before letting him walk. 2. Call up Kohl Stewart and see if there's anything there in a relief roll. He'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft again this year and, now performing well at AAA it seems more likely he'll get taken. I'd like to see the Twins make sure they're not throwing something valuable away after investing such a high pick. 3. Call up LaMonte Wade to take over the Robbie Grossman roll. I don't think there's much chance Grossman survives the 40 man cuts this off-season and Wade seems ready (Gordon, on the other hand, seems like he could benefit from more AAA time). Let's see what Wade can offer.

These trades give me a lot of confidence in the Front Office moving forward. The Pressly trade is the first time in my Twins fandom that I can remember them trading high on a player. Plus, it just made too much sense. Pressly lead MLB in appearances which could very well increase his injury risk and also, if it continues, increase his chances of having diminished stuff in the next couple seasons. The Twins also have several relievers in AAA that could, by this time next year, be thriving in the bullpen: Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart, Gabriel Moya (now in MLB). Not all of these guys will stick, of course, but now the Twins can use Pressly's innings (and Duke's, and soon maybe Rodney's and Belisle's) to try them out. Their timing on the Eduardo Escobar trade (considering how fast middle infielders moved later) also seemed brilliant. The Dozier trade was really the only disappointment as I was hoping for a little more. While they might have gotten a little more if they traded him earlier, I don't think it would have been substantially different. Dozier majorly underperformed this year and I wouldn't be surprised if, given some of his comments this year, his leadership skills were starting to be questioned. Also, Aaron Gleeman tweets his historically-bad "late and close" numbers all the time, something other teams have to be all to aware of. So overall, I think brining back a couple prospects and not having the qualifying offer on the table is a plus. One other thought. Kind of seems like the Luis Rijo acquisition replaces Luis Gil (traded to NYY for Jake Cave). I'm not going to pretend to know anything about Rookie ball prospects, but based on what people (like Seth) are saying, Rijo seems to have just as much if not more upside. If we think of the trade as Lynn and Gil and $ for Cave, Austin, and Rijo, I think it is even more impressive. Overall grade: A

I think Kilome would be an incredible get for Escobar. Wondering, though, if the Phillies might think that's too much. Based on MLB.com's rankings (just for an easy comparison), he's Philadelphia's #7 prospect and has an overall 50 scouting grade. In the Twins system, the players with a 50 scouting grade are ranked #7-9: Brent Rooker, Blayne Enlow, and Lewin Diaz. Once Trevor Larnach is added, he'd likely rank right around here too. I'm not too high on Diaz, but even if you replaced him with the next ranked prospect - Akil Baddoo - I think it's clear that that's a lot to give up for a rental non-elite player. So, I wonder if the Twins could add in Lynn, Rodney or Duke to get a deal done for Kilome plus a end-of-top-30 or unranked prospect. In general, like Jeremy mentioned with Dozier and Duke, I think trading multiple players is a good strategy in order to get a prospect the front office really likes.

Yeah, I agree, I think every team's option 1 would look better. Which is why I think this kind of trade is too risky unless the team is really just one solid piece away from contending for a championship. IMO, the Twins are multiple pieces away. And I'd rather the Twins have a chance at 2+ pieces (at least Romero + Kirilloff) than just the one in Realmuto.

I haven't heard anything about Castro possibly not being ready for 2019. Plus, a torn meniscus isn't as serious as a torn ACL. But, even if Castro were to not play next season, I still would prefer to get pretty much nothing out of the catcher position than to give up Romero + Kirlloff + Graterol. Also, option 2 requires a lot of hope that things will work out to. Namely, that Realmuto will sign an extension, that it won't financially handicap the Twins, and that he doesn't have a significant injury playing the most dangerous position in baseball.

If the proposed trade is Romero + Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto, I'm definitely not making that trade. It's really a decision between the following options: Option 1: -5 years of control of Romero -top end, trending up prospects in Kirilloff and Graterol in the system and eventually 6 years of control (to join winning window later or be used as future trade pieces when Twins are contending for championship) -Jason Castro as starting catcher in 2019 -Mitch Garver as backup in 2019 (or if really don't believe in his defense, sign a defensive-first back up) Option 2: -Realmuto for 2019 and 2020 (possibility for signing long-term but that is far from a guarantee and would likely be very expensive) -Jason Castro as backup catcher in 2019 I think you can make a solid argument that option 1 benefits the Twins more than option 2 does. I would. Especially considering that cost-controlled young starting pitching (Romero, maybe Graterol too) is arguably the most valuable resource in baseball right now.

I'm wondering why Cody ranked Cave (39) so much lower than Granite (24). Seems to me that Cave's better power tool and Granite better speed/defense tool would put them right around the same ranking. Genuinely curious about Cody's reasoning. Very much enjoying these updated rankings with the MLB team struggling so much. Thanks, guys!

Really good article. I was against trading Gibson before I read the article and you convinced me that it could very well be the right move (all depending, of course, on a good offer). The number of teams you laid out where Gibson would be a #1, 2, or 3 starter really makes this compelling. It also makes me wonder where Lance Lynn would rank on those teams - using some combination of this year's numbers and his career averages. Maybe this also means the return for Lance Lynn would be better than we think? (Not as strong, of course, as Gibson since he's the better pitcher this season, has a lower salary, and has an extra year of control). It especially seems compelling to send him to the national league where there's more need among the playoff contenders and where Lynn has been so successful. Also. I'll add just one more thing. So far -- and from what we know -- I think the front office has proven to be really savvy on the trade market. This gives me confidence that they wouldn't trade Gibson unless they got value back that exceeds Gibson's value to the 2019 Twins. Just looking at the major trades they've made, I think we can see that they aren't pushovers on the trade market: 1- Not trading Brian Dozier to LAD for injury-prone-but-still-top-prospect Jose De Leon and likely not much more. Reportedly Falvey and Levine asked for much more - and actively wanted to trade Dozier - but did not budge when offered a sub-par offer despite the organizations need for near-MLB ready starting pitching, which De Leon was. 2 - Jaime García (and Huascar Ynoa) for Zach Littell and Dietrich Enns. You can have a problem with their decision to sell at the deadline, but this was pretty objectively a good trade. Littell is one of the youngest pitchers in the International League and looks to have a roll on the team for years to come. They got him for 37.1 innings of García. 3 - Brandon Kintzler for Tyler Watson. Again, you can have problems with deadline decision, but this feels like a solid trade for a lottery ticket who's more than a lottery ticket in Watson. Reading the write up on him in the top prospects post from yesterday really does make this feel like a risk worth taking in exchange for 26 innings of Kintzler on a team you decided was out of it. 4 - Jermaine Palacios for Jake Odorizzi. A single-A non-elite SS prospect in a system where others at his same level have passed him and playing time would've been hard to figure out for a #3-4 starter is an excellent trade. I think no matter how Odorizzi pitches this year, the process behind this is definitely a win for the Twins. 5 - Using international bonus money to get Jacob Pearson and David Bañuelos. This was particularly smart because the Twins had scouted the 2017 draft class so closely given all their picks. These were guys they knew a lot about and who have a lot of the same upside of international free agents they could've signed, but who are a couple years older and easier to scout because of it. Spending money for prospects is something the best organizations do and the Twins never seemed to before. The process - results will come later - behind these trades suggest to me that, if Falvey and Levine do trade one of their higher-value tradeable assets like Gibson, the Twins will be getting equal or greater value back.

It's nice that they updated this before adding the 2018 draft prospects. When they do, I think we can assume that Javier (#86) and Graterol (#95) - and possibly Gonsalves (#75) - will miss the top 100 cut since they usually add about 20 draft prospects and a couple international free agents. I wonder if Larnach has a chance of getting one of the last few top 100 spots after a strong college world series... although it does seem aggressive for MLB to rank him above Javier and Graterol. The Twins are also the favorite to sign Venezuelan prospect Misael Urbina on July 2 (ranked #3 international prospect on mlb.com), who likely slots in not too far away from the top 100 as well. Either way, that arguably leaves the Twins with 7-8 prospects in the top 125 range heading into 2019.

Describing something as "white" is not racist. I'm simply referring to a time when very few non-white baseball players played in MLB and many these "rules" were established. What I was suggesting was that this "tradition" came about at a time when many people were excluded from baseball and baseball traditions that have been celebrated in other countries have just as much of a claim to legitimacy as the one developed in the US. For example, Brian Dozier got mad when Francisco Lindor celebrated his home run representing the technical "away" team during the Puerto Rico series. That does not go against "baseball's rules" or "disrespect the game". That goes against a very specific idea of baseball that was, once again, developed in the US during a time when very few non-white baseball players played. Puerto Rico's baseball "tradition" is just as legitimate. I'm simply suggesting that baseball should widen its horizons.

This is ridiculous - and a big reason why I think the Twins need to make sure Brian Dozier isn't on the team next year, since he seems to be the main proponent of this kind of attitude. The "respect the game", the (white) baseball "tradition" mantra is never going to rally the young Twins core or get fans in the seats - particularly fans under 30 who are paying less and less attention to baseball. The Twins getting mad at Profar for stealing a base, or Chance Sisco for bunting to beat the shift, literally tells fans that this game isn't worth watching anymore. It tells us that the players aren't trying anymore and if any of them show the audacity to keep trying - any excitement, any energy, any will to compete - they risk getting a 95 mph fastball thrown at their head. It's the same idea as when Jack Morris suggests that the only baseball worth watching was in the 80s - the message is to stop watching the game. How are the Twins going to build a winning culture if they insist on these strict rules for when it's okay - and when it's not okay - to compete?

A slightly different point but.... I don't understand why, in 2018, the Twins haven't put more emphasis on bilingual (English/Spanish) major league coaches. They currently have Rudy Hernández (who's not allowed to be on the bench for games), Eddie Guardado and the MLB mandated translator. No matter what happens with Molitor, I'd like to see the Twins bring in some coaches who can connect better with the Spanish-speaking players. And, if they do fire Molitor, they should absolutely put a high priority on hiring someone who can speak Spanish and make meaningful connections will all the players on the roster.

What about Regi Grace?

They also forfeit the money allotted to the pick they forfeited for signing Lynn. Meaning signing Lynn meant less money to play around with and potentially allot to other picks.

I feel very neutral about this, but I think it makes sense for the following reasons. 1) many have reported that this year's draft is much weaker than last year's 2) the twins had a lot less money to play with (especially after Lynn signing), so it wasn't super likely they could've drafted a high upside guy at pick 74 (like Enlow or Baddoo) 3) the twins effectively acquired two extra picks from the 2017 draft in Jacob Pearson and David Bañuelos, which helps to balance everything out Plus, $6.6 million in next year's free agent market could get them a solid contributor to the 2019 team

Any chance the Twins try and trade for Jurickson Profar?

Maybe they can trade Vargas to Miami and keep Kinley? I'm not really sure what they see in Kinley, but they clearly like something and, barring an injury, there's no room for him in the bullpen. They can't expect to get much back for Vargas when teams are just waiting for them to DFA him, but this way they'd at least get to keep working with Kinley.

Love this signing! First thoughts as to how this line-up could shape up. (Not how I'd set the batting order, but how I think the Twins might). Without Sano: 1. Dozier 2B 2. Mauer 1B 3. Buxton CF 4. Morrison DH 5. Rosario LF 6. Kepler RF 7. Polanco SS 8. Escobar 3B 9. Castro C Bench: Adrianza, Grossman, Garver, Aybar With Sano: 1. Dozier 2B 2. Mauer 1B 3. Sano 3B 4. Morrison DH 5. Buxton CF 6. Rosario LF 7. Kepler RF 8. Polanco SS 9. Castro C Bench: Escobar, Adrianza, Grossman, Garver

I think giving Sanchez a 40 man spot, when there are plenty of other similar (or better) quality pitchers they could've signed to an MiLB deal, has to mean something. Yes, they could still sign Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta and then try and pass Enns, Kinley, or Vargas through waivers. But, if that's the plan, why would they sign Sanchez then? They clearly want to get a look at Kinley in camp. They were interested enough in Enns to trade for him. And they need to keep Vargas around as Sano insurance. I'm wondering if something else is going on. Option 1: They are going to acquire a SP through trade and this trade will include at least one 40 man guy. Archer (not going to happen), Odorizzi, Corbin, McHugh could all fit this profile. Option 2: They really are targeting 2019 as the true opening of the winning window and are going to use 2018 to try out as many internal guys as possible and see who steps up. This is a defensible strategy in the sense that it could work out best in the long run. Maybe you find out that a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Pineda, May, Gonsalves, and Romero will be above league average (and super, super cheap). But, if this is true, it's really going to try fans' excitement for both the product they're putting on the field and the new "savvy" front office. Either way, it feels to me like they are not sold on Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta and the combination of years/money/draft pick compensation that signing them entails.

It just seems weird to me that they couldn't sign Sanchez to a minor league deal for the same money if he makes the team (plus incentives). Why use the 40 man spot now?

I have zero interest in Arrieta. I'm happy with either Cobb or Lynn. I think Lynn makes a ton of sense. But I also think that if the Twins go with Cobb it means that the Twins' metrics plus Josh Kalk's scouting report (hired from Rays) both suggest Cobb will be the better pitcher. With all the Twins interest in (ex-)Rays pitchers, the Kalk signing seems really smart. After getting either Cobb or Lynn, I would also sign Jaime García to a one-year deal. He'll be cheap and the Twins could really use a reliable lefty. Plus, if he's bad, it's a low-risk, one-year deal and they can trade or release him. 2018 Opening Day: Berríos Lynn/Cobb García Gibson Mejía 2018 (once Santana's back): Berríos Lynn/Cobb Santana García Gibson/Mejía/May AAA Depth: Gonsalves, Romero, Littell, Slegers, Jorge

Any idea on what it would take to get McHugh from Houston? Rosenthal suggested Twins might have interested in trading for him after the Darvish news broke. The Dodgers basically have 7 starters right now so it seems like it would make a lot of sense. They're ML team is loaded, so maybe they'd be looking for some high-upside, high-risk prospects who are further away to continue their window. Either way, the price has to be considerably cheaper since McHugh isn't as good as Archer, is a year older and has fewer years of team control (at likely at more money). Maybe most importantly, Houston isn't in a situation like Tampa Bay where they'll only trade him if they can get a franchise-saving return that's worth the risk of not having Archer while also trying to build a new stadium.

I think what's big here is MLB and Manfred officially saying that the logo was inappropriate: "the logo is no longer appropriate for on-field use in Major League Baseball". That's a huge step. Next step would be not televising fans dressed as "Chief Wahoo", etc. But, coming out and saying it is inappropriate, rather than something like "in need of an update" sends a pretty clear signal of what MLB wants to happen with the Cleveland baseball team in the near future.

With MLB.com posting its top 100 prospects last night, the Twins now have 6 players getting top 100 rankings across MLB.com, Baseball America, and Keith Law. Interesting how they're all in agreement on Lewis, but not on any of the others. In fact, Lewis and Gordon are the only Twins who received votes across all three rankings. Royce Lewis MLB 20 BA 24 KL 25 Nick Gordon MLB 80 BA 93 KL 37 Fernando Romero MLB 68 BA n/r KL 47 Stephen Gonsalves MLB 78 BA 97 KL n/r Brent Rooker MLB n/r BA 92 KL n/r Wander Javier MLB n/r BA 95 KL n/r