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olivia11

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Everything posted by olivia11

  1. olivia11
    Gordon could be on both SS and 2B lists because MLB lists him as both.
  2. olivia11
    What about the Lynx and their 4 championships? The Lynx have easily been the best professional team in the Twin Cities over the last decade.
  3. olivia11
    With Darvish, I'm wondering if the Twins can offer him a 6 year contract that is very front-loaded and includes a vesting option for the 6th year. That way, if the Twins are in a position where they need to trade him after the first 3 or 4 years, they can do so. Year 1: 30 million Year 2: 35 million Year 3: 30 million Year 4: 20 million Year 5: 15 million Year 6: 10 million (vesting option for 160 innings pitched) Total: 6 years, 140 million. 30 million during year 1 basically covers all of the Twins open payroll space for this season. 35 and 30 million years 2 and 3 takes over the Mauer and Dozier contracts which come off the books (Santana, too, during year 3). Then years 4-6 is when the Twins most need this contact to be affordable because that's when they'll be dedicating a good amount of their payroll to Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, etc. Which side says no?
  4. olivia11
    My guess on the top 5 is: 1) Buxton 2) Berríos 3) Sanó 4) Lewis 5) Rosario I could also see Sanó and Lewis flopped. But I think the top two has to be Buxton and Berríos given the shortage of young, controllable top-of-the-rotation pitching in baseball right now.
  5. olivia11
    I would not be looking to extend Dozier. Offer him the qualifying offer at the end of the year (16M) which he'll likely turn down and the Twins won't lose him for nothing. (Remember: the compensation pick for Cuddyer turned into Berrios).
  6. olivia11
    Believe her. There is no reason for a woman to ever lie about something like this. There is absolutely nothing for her to gain.
  7. olivia11
    I think that giving up the draft pick to sign Lynn or Cobb (I'm not interested at all in Arrieta) is huge. It's not only giving up someone who would immediately slot in as an organizational top 20 prospect and be a potential top 100 prospect, but it's also giving up the flexibility of the slot amount - the same flexibility that was so key to the high-upside picks of the the Twins 2017 draft. So, given that... Plan A: Sign Darvish. I would go as high as 6 years 150 million. Since there is no draft pick compensation and this is an opportunity to sign an "ace" without giving up top prospects, I would go this high. I feel like this could very realistically get it done. Plan B: See if Lynn or Cobb would accept 4 years 60 million. Factoring in the draft pick compensation, that is the max I would go. And I don't think it's enough to get either of them. Plan C: Try to trade for Archer without giving up Sano, Lewis, and both Romero and Gonsalves. This won't be enough to get Archer. Plan D: Go after second and third-tier starting pitcher targets. Odorizzi, Straily, Corbin. Also inquire about some other names that we haven't heard much about but that could be acquired via trade - like Michael Fulmer and Danny Duffy. This trade would have to include not giving up any of the MLB core (Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Mejia, Polanco, bullpen arms) Lewis, both Gonsalves and Romero, Javier, or high-upside 2017-draft guys like Rooker, Enlow, and Leach. Plan E: Sign a 5th starter type via free agency. Let competition play out in Spring Training and hope the young guys can contribute big in 2018. Put plan in motion to really improve the rotation for 2019.
  8. olivia11
    I think they're trying to find their version of Corey Kluber. My guess would be that the Twins have developed some advanced metric that Kinley shows elite potential for. Still, there's going to probably be a lot of trial and error in looking for their version of Kluber. And, as of now, I would prefer to have Burdi and/or Bard on the 40-man, but I'm going to wait and see what other moves they make this offseason.
  9. olivia11
    Phillies select Burdi with #4 pick
  10. olivia11
    "Of the 5 guys above, at least one is a Top 100 guy now, and quite possibly all 5 will be by the end of the year." ****This is why the Twins shouldn't do it. I agree that Romero, Javier, Baddoo, Enlow, and Kiriloff could all be top 100 guys as soon as mid-2018 (Romero already is and Kiriloff was before Tommy John), so this would be selling low on possibly all of them. If I'm going to trade some of these guys, I'm waiting another year for when their prospect value is likely going to be much higher and I could trade half of them for the same return.
  11. olivia11
    I'm not sure why people are including Royce Lewis in trade scenarios because he supposedly won't be up for 5 years. When a team has really hit on a #1 draft pick (like we're hoping the Twins have), even the high school players reach the big leagues really quick. Let's look at two recent top draft picks who were infielders drafted out of high school: Carlos Correa (#1 overall in 2012): 2012 half season: Rk, 2013 season: A, 2014 season A+, 2015: AA/AAA/MLB. MLB debut at age 20. Manny Machado (#3 overall in 2010): 2010 half season Rk/A-, 2011 season: A/A+, 2012 season: AA/MLB. MLB debut at age 19. Lewis spit his draft-year season between Rookie and A ball. Putting him on track to reach the majors as early as 2019 or 2020 if all goes to plan. That's right in the middle of the Twins winning window. Of course, plenty could go wrong, but you don't trade a #1 overall draft pick who has Carlos Correa/Manny Machado potential unless he shows you some major flaws. If I'm the Twins, Lewis is absolutely *untouchable. *untouchable, of course, qualified to mean any "sane"/realistic trade scenario.
  12. olivia11
    In an MLB.com article about the Rays' trade pieces, they suggested that the Rays would have to be "overwhelmed" to trade Archer in a similar way that they were when the Cubs traded for Matt Garza in 2011. Using that trade as a baseline, I wonder if we can estimate what it might take to get Archer and if it's possible to do so without giving up Royce Lewis and both Romero and Gonsalves. 2011 Trade: Cubs Acquire: Matt Garza (3 years arb left; above average starter) Fernando Perez (OF, AAA, ceiling 4th outfielder) Zac Rosscup (RHP, 23 year old SP prospect in A+, Cubs 20-30 range) Rays Acquire: Sam Fuld (MLB OF; underwhelming) Chris Archer (RHP, Cubs #1 prospect, BA #27 in MLB) Hak-Ju Lee (SS, Cubs #4 prospect, BA #92 in MLB) Brandon Guyer (OF, Cubs #10 prospect) Robinson Chirinos (C, AA/AAA defensive-first catcher) At the time of the trade, it seems like it came down to Lee & Archer for Garza. People also generally considered this to be an over-pay for Garza. Since Archer in 2017 is probably more highly regarded than Garza was 2011, let's use this potential over-pay as a guideline. I would also think the Twins wouldn't be comfortable sending so many prospects for one player, so let's say they also try and get Alex Colome. Also, if I'm the Twins, Lewis is off the table and I am not going to trade both Romero and Gonsalves but will trade one of them. Could this potentially work? Twins Acquire: Chris Archer (RHP, 4 years control remaining) Alex Colome (RHP, 2018 first year arb eligible) Rays Acquire: Robbie Grossman (OF, MLB) [sam Fuld role] Nick Gordon (SS, Twins #2, MLB #30) [Chris Archer role] Stephen Gonsalves (LHP, Twins #3, MLB #64) [Hak-Ju Lee role] Alex Kirilloff (OF, Twins #6, potential top 100 by end of season) [Add] Tyler Jay (LHP, Twins #8) [Add] Zack Granite (OF, Twins #26) [brandon Guyer role] Kirilloff and Jay are added to make up the difference between the over-pay for the slightly-less-regarded Garza with add-ons for the better-regarded Archer plus Colome. Is this anywhere close?
  13. olivia11
    I don't know. Why do we have to think of each position this way? I think the Twins can make up for the below-average power at 1B at other positions. In 2018, I could see the Twins having a really balanced lineup in terms of power (kind of like how the Astros have 11 players with 10+ hrs and only 1 player with more than 20). It doesn't seem crazy to me to think that Sano, Dozier (if around), Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Escobar (if around), Polanco, Castro, Mauer, Gordon, Rooker, 2017 DH/OF FA signing all have the potential to hit 10+ home runs in a season, with some (of course) hitting many more. Of course, not all of those players would be on the team, but I can see many ways that the Twins could have double-digit players hitting double-digit home runs by 2018. Then, "below average power" at 1B doesn't much. They also need OBP and Mauer gets on base better than anyone (including Grossman - and is a better fit than Grossman. Plus, Mauer is still one of the top 5 hitters on this team. It's of course hard to predict what the bench would look like in 2018, but I have a hard time thinking that Mauer playing 80-100 games between 1B and DH wouldn't help the team.
  14. olivia11
    I count 10 names that very likely won't be on the 40 man by November: Belisle, Colon, Gee, Perkins, Santiago, Gimenez, Gibson, O'Rourke, Recker, Vargas Bubble candidates to go off 40 man: -Buddy Boshers (he's pitched really well but depends on where he's at in the LHRP depth chart; I could see FA wanting to protect Moya over keeping Boshers) -Engelb Vielma (he hasn't hit at all in AAA and slipped out of MLB's top 30 prospects; Adrianza fits the roll of glove-first utility IF and these guys aren't hard to get off waivers; but there isn't much IF depth on the 40 man) -Nik Turley (I think we'll see him again this season in the bullpen; has the potential to take over Boshers' spot; I still think he's got potential but if he doesn't perform well this given enough of an opportunity in relief, he's probably gone) -Phil Hughes (I feel like there's a chance that Hughes and the Twins come to some sort of deal where Hughes retires; not sure how this works) -(also, I think Vargas will be taken off because he'll be out of options next season and he's had plenty of opportunities and not impressed much; FO has proven they'll make those moves) So I think up to 13 spots could open up (I think one of Turley or Boshers will stay). Of course this doesn't mean that all 13 could be filled by Rule 5 eligible guys. Twins would need to add another Catcher, clear some things up in the OF by adding a RH bat and maybe subtracting LH bat (Grossman, Palka, Granite) via trade, and then add a starting pitcher and a reliever. But we don't know when those moves might happen. With estimating 10 open spots, I would add: Gonsalves, Littell, Reed, Curtiss, Thorpe, Diaz, Stewart, Slegers, Moya, Rodriguez
  15. olivia11
    Littell could very likely start in AA next year, he's only got 40 innings this year after throwing 70 in A+ earlier this season. Similar to Gonsalves' 2016 season.
  16. olivia11
    Ken Rosenthal just tweeted that Tyler Watson is coming back to Twins
  17. olivia11
    Tyler Watson from the Nationals makes a lot of sense even though he's a little further away. As someone else mentioned somewhere, the Twins are going to have to make some difficult 40 man decisions this off-season. Plus part of building the pitching pipeline means adding guys for 2020. Watson looks to be trending up. How about Kintzler for LHP Tyler Watson (#17 mlb) and OF Rafael Bautista (#13 mlb; RH hitting MLB-ready 4th outfielder)?
  18. olivia11
    I'd set the over/under on number of trades today at 1.5 Kintzler will get traded for best offer. I think Santana is next likely to get traded. I think the Yankees will get Gray, but I don't think the Dodgers will give up Buehler or Verdugo for Darvish and Texas will ultimately hold onto him. There could be a potential fit there since the Dodgers have such a deep farm system and I could see a deal being made that doesn't include their top 5 prospects. Mariners have talked to Twins about Santana too, but their farm system doesn't match up well with what the FO seems to want back. Astros are in it too. Maybe even Royals. It ultimately depends on if a team will get desperate and meet the FO's minimum return. If not, the smart move is to hang onto him. Escobar, Belisle, Gimenez could all be moved too. Seems most likely that Dozier is moved in the offseason. Maybe even another trade in the style of JRM for Moya. (Park to someone?) I think I'd take the over. Kintzler and then either a Santana trade or a more minor trade.
  19. olivia11
    Oh that's a good point. Didn't think about that. Maybe could be worked around as the PTBNL.
  20. olivia11
    Anyone else think that Santana to the Astros for a package around David Paulino could make a lot of sense? 23-year-old starter with a 92-98 mph fastball and a plus curve. He was a consensus top 100 prospect before testing positive for PEDs earlier this month. BA had him #51, for example. This seems like a good time to buy low on a guy and get someone who's a good bet to replace Santana's production in the rotation right away next season. Maybe something like: RHP David Paulino (org rank #8) 3B J.D. Davis (org rank #15 - in AAA, blocked in system. Can play 1B too. Twins need RH bat) RHP Jorge Alcala (org rank #26 - starting pitcher in A+, potential #3 starter, lottery ticket type)
  21. olivia11
    Ynoa's scouting report suggested that if everything went right he would be a back-of-the-rotation starter in 4-5 years. Littell profiles as a #4 and could debut in the majors next year. Plus Littell fits in with the Romero & Gonsalves time frame really well. If Falvey and Levine are really considering 2019-2022 as the big winning window, then I like that they're targeting guys who can be a part of that. I really like this move.
  22. olivia11
    I mean... 5 innings, 3 earned runs was a really good Gibson start before this last one against the Tigers. I'm all for the Twins giving Colon another shot. If he can return to 2016 form, that's a really great move. If not, they can call up Gibson whenever they need to. Or replace him with Santiago. I like the risk.
  23. olivia11
    I wonder if the Twins could get a prospect in the range of Ynoa for Santiago if they agreed to pay the rest of his contact. If the Twins were able to send a "lesser" prospect to the Braves for eating the rest of García's salary, then you'd have to think it could work to their benefit the other way around, too. Probably not a true lottery ticket like Ynoa (low floor, high ceiling, high risk, etc.) but maybe a higher floor, lower ceiling guy like the Twins equivalent of an Aaron Slegers. Maybe even the Angels (who are just 1 game back of the Twins in the WC race) would be interested in getting him back. LHP Hector Santiago to LAA for RHP Jake Jewell - Twins paying some portion of the rest of Santiago's salary. MLB has Jewell as the #24 ranked prospect in Angels system (a bad system). The scouting report suggests he needs a fresh start after being knocked around in 2016. He a 24 year old starting pitcher at AA with good numbers at A+ and poor ones (so far) at AA. So, his stock has recently dropped, but if he bounces back he's interesting. Who says no? Maybe this is the right kind of move for the Twins to make with Santiago. They have to pay him anyway. There's no spot for him on the roster. He's a free agent after this season. Might as well try and get something back?
  24. olivia11
    If the Recker move/Haley DFA is just to call up Garver, then I really don't get it. If the Twins want to call up Garver, they can call up Rohlfing to back up Murphy at AAA. Then either keep the promotion train going or sign or trade for a catcher who isn't on the 40 man. Falvey and Levine have talked about how valuable 40 man roster spots are - and right now they have 5 catchers on it - so this just feels totally strange to me. (Unless, of course, there's a trade happening.)
  25. olivia11
    If this is true, it seems like it was someone that Falvey and Levine don't have any confidence in and they're trying to get something for them before their value drops. Stewart or Thorpe would make sense... especially since they were looking to get a prospect back and Atlanta was eating part of the salary.
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