DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[Gheggs08]

 

What would be nice is if they squeak in Alvarez or Beuhler alongside De Leon.

I think it'll be De Leon, Alvarez, Stripling, and K. Ruiz 

[Craig Arko]

 

This might be the post of the offseason. 

If it doesn't happen, look for the 'Fire Falvey and Levine' thread by tomorrow evening.

[strumdatjaguar]

So, someone explain to me how an all-star everyday player with power and good defense gets a lower level of prospect (and no extra players) than the number one prospect received from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade.   I understand an ace is valuable, but he only plays once every five days.   A guy like Dozier is going to play nearly every day, and is less likely to blow out an elbow or a shoulder..  I'm not saying the Twins won't get decent value for Dozier compared to the White Sox - but I'm worried!!!

[twins_89]

I'm hoping for De Leon and Alvarez are the main return and would like someone like Buehler/Sheffield as the 3rd player (to help mitigate the risk involved in trading for a low A pitcher like Alvarez).

[d-mac]

 

Hope I am wrong, but this will be the first(and maybe biggest) mistake of the new front office.

 

Why do you hate De Leon so much? The dude had a 32.5% K rate and 5.55 K/BB rate in the PCL this past year. 

[Sheeran]

 

So, someone explain to me how an all-star everyday player with power and good defense gets a lower level of prospect (and no extra players) than the number one prospect received from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade.   I understand an ace is valuable, but he only plays once every five days.   A guy like Dozier is going to play nearly every day, and is less likely to blow out an elbow or a shoulder..  

Look at it this way. If you started a franchise today and you had to choose between Brian Dozier and Chris Sale with your first pick, who would you choose? Pretty easy question I think

[Gheggs08]

 

I'm hoping for De Leon and Alvarez are the main return and would like someone like Buehler/Sheffield as the 3rd player (to help mitigate the risk involved in trading for a low A pitcher like Alvarez).

I was thinking the same thing, although I think I would be happy with someone like Stripling. 

[d-mac]

 

De Leon in AAA last year: 3.02 ERA; sub-1 WHIP; 11 K/9; 2.1 BB/9.

 

Yeah I'd probably take him.

 

And while in the PCL. 

[DaveW]

 

If it doesn't happen, look for the 'Fire Falvey and Levine' thread by tomorrow evening.

I love the Falvey and Levine hires. Like any front office, I will give them 4 years before I judge them or imply they are on any sort of hot seat.

[d-mac]

 

De Leon not Bellinger? Need pitching but if they had the chance for Bellinger they shouldve took him.

 

I'd rather have De Leon. I'd take the near MLB ready arm with a good K rate any day over a corner outfielder/1B type.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

If it doesn't happen, look for the 'Fire Falvey and Levine' thread by tomorrow evening.

All I have to do is press 'Post.'

[DaveW]

 

Look at it this way. If you started a franchise today and you had to choose between Brian Dozier and Chris Sale with your first pick, who would you choose? Pretty easy question I think

Yeah, Sale is an elite pitcher, maybe one of the most valuable 10 players in all of baseball. Dozier is a helluva player, if he mimics his 2016 for the next 2-3 years, then he is a top 10 player in all of baseball, but currently I would rank him someone in the 40-60 range TBH

If Dozier was a free agent you are prob looking at a 5 year/90 mil deal. If Sale was a free agent you are looking at 8 years and close to $240 million.

[ashbury]

Hope it is not headlined by De Leon.  Would rather prefer higher upside A level types( at least 3 of them).

I took a quick look at your other posts, and didn't see what your knock on De Leon might be. He's pretty well regarded on various MLB prospect lists.

[twins_89]

 

So, someone explain to me how an all-star everyday player with power and good defense gets a lower level of prospect (and no extra players) than the number one prospect received from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade.   I understand an ace is valuable, but he only plays once every five days.   A guy like Dozier is going to play nearly every day, and is less likely to blow out an elbow or a shoulder..  I'm not saying the Twins won't get decent value for Dozier compared to the White Sox - but I'm worried!!!

 

If you look at the deal from the surplus value perspective Dozier is probably worth $60-80M over the next two seasons. If the return is De Leon and Alvarez I think a case can be made that they have a value in the $50-60M range, so those two with one additional real prospect (maybe one of the Dodgers #7-9 prospects) is a fairly realistic return for Dozier.

[GP830]

I wonder if that SS Lux is in the conversation? 

[DaveW]

De Leon, Berrios and May would be a nice start to a rotation for the next several years. None may be "true ace" types, but De Leon and Berrios have #2 upside, and May is just behind them IMO.

I actually like De Leon a little bit more than Berrios TBH

[DaveW]

 

I wonder if that SS Lux is in the conversation? 

Twins asked for him as a third piece, Dodgers rebuffed. 

There is an outside chance he could be the second piece though.

[Sheeran]

Wonder if the Twins will throw in Perkins? It's a sell low kind of thing with him but perhaps they could still get something. If the Twins are doing a rebuild might as well.

[GP830]

I like De Leon, but only if we're getting significant talent on the back-end of the deal as well. Alvarez and Lux would do it for me--and I don't think it would be an overpay. A 4th player would be superfluous. I also have to believe that the Dodgers would entertain another piece from MN if it was a fit. 

[DaveW]

 

Wonder if the Twins will throw in Perkins? It's a sell low kind of thing with him but perhaps they could still get something. If the Twins are doing a rebuild might as well.

Dodgers have no interest in Perkins. Just way to much risk at this stage. 

Perk will stay a Twin (thankfully as he is my favorite player)

[gunnarthor]

 

So, someone explain to me how an all-star everyday player with power and good defense gets a lower level of prospect (and no extra players) than the number one prospect received from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade.   I understand an ace is valuable, but he only plays once every five days.   A guy like Dozier is going to play nearly every day, and is less likely to blow out an elbow or a shoulder..  I'm not saying the Twins won't get decent value for Dozier compared to the White Sox - but I'm worried!!!

While, by WAR, Sale and Dozier have been pretty equal the last three years, Sale does have a few advantages.  First, pitching is always paid at a premium.  Second, he has more years of control (albeit at a much higher salary).  Third, adding a pitching piece moves everyone down the staff so a LH pitcher who might have been your 5th starter can become a shut down loogy.  

[sthpstm]

I'd love to Verdugo as the second piece, and would have assumed he was too much, but seeing the Eaton trade makes me slightly hopeful.

[Gheggs08]

 

I'd love to Verdugo as the second piece, and would have assumed he was too much, but seeing the Eaton trade makes me slightly hopeful.

I think the Eaton trade did nothing but help the Twins. I know it's apple to oranges as Eaton is controlled much longer but the Nats gave up a haul. 

[bluechipper]

 

Twins asked for him as a third piece, Dodgers rebuffed. 

There is an outside chance he could be the second piece though.

If Gavin Lux is the second piece, I'd be pretty disappointed. I think the aim should be higher than that.

[d-mac]

 

I think the Eaton trade did nothing but help the Twins. I know it's apple to oranges as Eaton is controlled much longer but the Nats gave up a haul. 

 

That was my reaction after "Holy s***, that's highway robbery!"

[Sheeran]

So there is no second piece going to LA?

[beckmt]

 

Why do you hate De Leon so much? The dude had a 32.5% K rate and 5.55 K/BB rate in the PCL this past year. 

He is rated as a #3 starter.  Twins have a lot of that type 1-2 years away.  We needed one with a #1 or #2 upside.  Do not hate De Leon.  Just does not pass the muster I was looking for.  That being said would need to see the rest of the trade before totally passing judgement on it.

[DaveW]

 

If Gavin Lux is the second piece, I'd be pretty disappointed. I think the aim should be higher than that.

Sorry yeah that was what I was trying to get across.

The Dodgers don't want to give up Lux (in addition to two better prospects) they prefer the third/forth pieces to be guys with lesser upside.

[DaveW]

 

So there is no second piece going to LA?

Unlikely.

If there is a second piece it won't be anything of real note.

[Steve Lein]

If Adam Eaton nets Lucas Giolito+, Dozier should absolutely nab Urias+.

 

Better be De Leon and Bellinger if there's truth in this thread...