Article: Dreaming Of 200 Home Runs

[Nick Nelson]

With the shift from power hitting toward power pitching that baseball has seen over the past couple decades, it has become quite a bit more rare to see offenses pile up 200 home runs. It was a feat accomplished by 11 teams in 2000 and by only five in 2015.

 

To find the last Twins squad that went deep 200 times, you have to go all the way back to 1964, when Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison and Tony Oliva were leading the way.

 

For this year's club it is an unlikely yet not unfeasible possibility.I'll start by saying that, obviously, a lot of things would need to go right for the Twins to reach such a number. Almost every starter in the lineup would need to stay mostly healthy and perform. But if we set fairly reasonable – though in some cases slightly optimistic – home run totals for each projected regular, we can get pretty dang close. Observe:

 

Miguel Sano: 35

 

Not much of a stretch here. He hit 35 during his last full season in the minors (2013) and launched 33 last year in 146 games between Double-A and the majors.

 

Byung Ho Park: 30

 

He's coming off back-to-back 50-homer campaigns in Korea, and ZiPS projects him to hit 27 as a rookie. We'll say he catches on quickly and manages to surpass that by a little.

 

Brian Dozier: 25

 

He has hit 51 over the last two seasons and will be 29.

 

Trevor Plouffe: 20

 

His 150-game average in four years since becoming a full-time big-leaguer is just a tick above 20, so this is exactly what you'd expect if he stays on the field.

 

Eduardo Escobar: 15

 

This is the first one that feels like a bit of a reach. There's not much in his long-term track record that would suggest this is realistic (he hit only 19 total in the minors) but Escobar went deep 12 times in 127 games last year and his power is clearly trending upward at age 27.

 

Eddie Rosario: 15

 

As a rookie he homered 13 times in 122 games while also racking up 15 doubles and 13 triples. It's easy to envision Rosario muscling up a bit at age 24 and pushing a few more over the wall.

 

Byron Buxton: 15

 

Buxton's power is hard to peg, because almost every scout opines that we really haven't seen what he's capable of, and he's just finally starting to fill out his frame a little bit. Last year he totaled nine homers in 118 games between the minors and majors.

 

Joe Mauer: 10

 

He hit 10 last year, 11 in 2013 and 10 in 2012.

 

Kurt Suzuki: 5

 

This is pretty consistently where he has been at in recent years.

 

Between these nine starters alone, we already have 170 home runs. That's not accounting for the contributions from backups, fill-ins and call-ups, who figure to produce somewhere around 15-20 and maybe more if someone like Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas or Daniel Palka plays a more prominent role than expected.

 

Admittedly, 200 might be setting the bar too high. But the story is that we can reasonably project two players for 30-plus homers (that has happened twice in the last three decades) and a team total that may very well rank among the top five in franchise history.

 

Here's what it would take to break into that rarified category:

 

1. 1963: 225 HR

2. 1964: 221 HR

3. 1987: 196 HR

4. 1986: 196 HR

5. 2004: 191 HR

6. 1962: 185 HR

7. 2009: 162 HR

8. 2002: 167 HR

9. 1961: 167 HR

10. 2001: 164 HR

 

Even by conservative estimates, this year's offense should end up being the second-most powerful that the Twins have fielded since '87, and it's not tough to imagine this group surpassing that '04 club fueled by the likes of Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau.

 

The 2009, 2004 and 2002 teams were all division-winners, and in the case of '09 they did it without a particularly strong pitching staff, so you can certainly make the argument that this is a sensible approach for a team with question marks at the front of the rotation and in the bullpen.

 

How many long balls do you predict the Twins will hit this year?

 

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[old nurse]

10 from MMurphy, 20 from Arcia, 5 from Nunez, 26 from Vargas after he comes up because Mauer can't see straight

[theBOMisthebomb]

Nick Punto and Mauer both with 0.

[bluechipper]

The power potential is one of the things I'm most looking forward to this season, and I'm really intrigued by seeing how Park's power translates, 30 from him would be great.

[Lefty]

Thirty from a guy that's never seen a that's never seen a pitch in major league baseball?  I hope a year from now you can say I told you so.  I'll say that we're gonna see more HR from Arcia than we are from Park, and I'd guess that number is closer to 0 than 30.  I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

[cy1time]

I know that feeling, Lefty.  I really hope your are wrong, too.  

[Riverbrian]

I think we should start a "Hope Lefty is wrong" club.

 

Meet on Thursday Nights... Low membership fees.

 

Hot Dish... Beer and someone to record the minutes so it seems official.

[dbminn]

I'd take 170 HR... Just give me a .260/.325/.420 slash line.

[ThejacKmp]

Good write up. But Harmon Killebrew led the way in 1964, hitting 49.

[Mike Sixel]

Small chance, imo, Buxton hits 15 homeruns next year, and I'll take the under on Escobar also. 

[USAFChief]

 

I'd take 170 HR... Just give me a .260/.325/.420 slash line.

I think that slash line is reasonable for Park, but 170 HR seems a bit optimistic.

[Riverbrian]

I think that slash line is reasonable for Park, but 170 HR seems a bit optimistic.

Chief... Dude... I'm not sure where this negative attitude is coming from?

 

Park hits 170 and the team hits 206 and we all blame Mauer.

 

You just gotta believe.

[tobi0040]

 

I think that slash line is reasonable for Park, but 170 HR seems a bit optimistic.

 

Nice.

 

I think the OPS slash line of .745 is very optimistic.  That would have put us 2nd in baseball last year (we were 12th at .704). 

 

If the over under on our 1B and DH spots was .745 I would take the under.  

[Riverbrian]

I like the Park dice roll. I've never worried about log jams. I actually like log jams and feel they are something to strive for.

 

I think the Twins are hoping Park can provide big bat protection for Sano. I hope they are right and it forces Gladden to come up with a home run call.

[bluechipper]

Thirty from a guy that's never seen a that's never seen a pitch in major league baseball?  I hope a year from now you can say I told you so.  I'll say that we're gonna see more HR from Arcia than we are from Park, and I'd guess that number is closer to 0 than 30.  I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

You're making it sound like Park has never played baseball before.

[USAFChief]

 

Chief... Dude... I'm not sure where this negative attitude is coming from?

Park hits 170 and the team hits 206 and we all blame Mauer.

You just gotta believe.

Now we've gone from Nick hoping for 200 to you predicting 376.

 

People need to be realistic, ferpetesakes.

[Mike Frasier Law]

I was doing the same exercise yesterday. Steamer projects us to hit 173 hr next year. I was trying to find a way to get them to 197 (most since the dome era), and it didn't seem crazy. I needed to come up with 24 more than projections. Here's what I came up with:

 

Player        Steamer       My projection

Sano          32                 36

park           20                 26

Dozier        20                 25

Plouffe       17                 24

Rosario      13                 13

Arcia           11                 11

Buxton       11                  11

Mauer          9                   10

Escobar       8                   9

Murphy       6                    7

Suzuki        4                     5

Vargas        3                    3

Kepler         3                    3

Santana      3                     3

Nunez         2                     2

ABW           1                     0

Polanco      1                     0

 

 

None of that seems crazy, right?

[Craig Arko]

162 seems like a reasonable floor.

[Riverbrian]

Now we've gone from Nick hoping for 200 to you predicting 376.

 

People need to be realistic, ferpetesakes.

I've been misread I got Park at 170 and the rest of the team hitting 36 for 206 total.

 

You must agree that is much more realistic.

[Riverbrian]

I was doing the same exercise yesterday. Steamer projects us to hit 173 hr next year. I was trying to find a way to get them to 197 (most since the dome era), and it didn't seem crazy. I needed to come up with 24 more than projections. Here's what I came up with:

 

Player        Steamer       My projection

Sano          32                 36

park           20                 26

Dozier        20                 25

Plouffe       17                 24

Rosario      13                 13

Arcia           11                 11

Buxton       11                  11

Mauer          9                   10

Escobar       8                   9

Murphy       6                    7

Suzuki        4                     5

Vargas        3                    3

Kepler         3                    3

Santana      3                     3

Nunez         2                     2

ABW           1                     0

Polanco      1                     0

 

 

None of that seems crazy, right?

If Park hits 26... Then....

With health....I think Sano could eclipse 40

 

If Park fails... Then...

With health.... Sano could lead the league in Walks.

[Platoon]

I think we should start a "Hope Lefty is wrong" club.

Meet on Thursday Nights... Low membership fees.

Hot Dish... Beer and someone to record the minutes so it seems official.

But no cameras or recorders. What happens at "Leftys Wrong" stays at Leftys Wrong!

[Winston Smith]

200 homeruns = how many K's?  MLB record 1,600?

[Platoon]

On the serious side, I agree with Lefty, Park will not hit 30. And there is no way Dozier hits 25. His days of the high inside fastball are mostly over, and if he decides he wants to go the other way, there isn't any natural power to that side of the field.

[Lefty]

I'll do progressive beer chugs.  One for the first bomb.  2 for the second and so on.  Here's to hoping I get sloppy.  I know he's played and is very good at where he's been, but so were a lot of the other prospects that reached the majors.  It's the MN sports fan in me, aren't we trained to be pessimistic?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Between these nine starters alone, we already have 170 home runs. That's not accounting for the contributions from backups, fill-ins and call-ups, who figure to produce somewhere around 15-20 and maybe more if someone like Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas or Daniel Palka plays a more prominent role than expected.

But if Arcia, Vargas, or Palka plays a more prominent role, that would almost certainly mean injury / less playing time for some of your starters, likely Sano and Park.

[Thrylos]

I don't really care about how many HRs they hit, I just hope that most are with at least one, and hopefully more, on base...

 

Situational hitting is much more important that hitting the ball out of the part.  If that means fewer HRs but fewer Ks and more singles and doubles with men on scoring position, I will take that

[dbminn]

 

Nice.

 

I think the OPS slash line of .745 is very optimistic.  That would have put us 2nd in baseball last year (we were 12th at .704). 

 

If the over under on our 1B and DH spots was .745 I would take the under.  

I agree that the slash line is optimistic.

 

I think there's a chance at 1B and DH. Steamer projections are more optimistic than both of us. Here's their best guess for 2016 OPS: Mauer (.745), Park (.806), Arcia (.772), Vargas (.750). Wow - didn't expect that.

Edited February 19, 2016 by dbminn

[Lefty]

Wait a minute, i better switch that to 1 ounce beers, what if he hits 28, 29, and 30 on the same day?

[Nick Nelson]

 

Good write up. But Harmon Killebrew led the way in 1964, hitting 49.

Holy cow, how did I forget to write his name down? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Steamer has Park projected for 20 HR, but they're not really trying to project playing time.  The Fangraphs depth chart projection uses Steamer rate stats but tries to project playing time too.  With those PAs, he would be projected to hit 30.

 

Park:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=18717&position=1B

 

Depth Charts:

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8

 

However, I have no idea how they arrived at that projection.  If that was his median projection (to be a top 50 hitter in MLB by wRC+), he certainly would have warranted more than a 4/24 commitment, no?  I guess if you base it primarily off of Kang's success, you could get there, but with so little data and such massive error bars, that seems high for a median projection.  Were Tomas, Rusney Castillo, etc. simply projected to hit like Abreu, Cespedes, and Puig?