Article: Dreaming Of 200 Home Runs

[USAFChief]

It would be pretty cool, IMO, if the Twins were to approach 200 team HRs.

 

Chiefs dig the long ball.

[Winston Smith]

I wonder how many ML or even AAA quality sliders down and away Park has seen?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think there's a chance at 1B and DH. Steamer projections are more optimistic than both of us. Here's their best guess for 2016 OPS: Mauer (.745), Park (.806), Arcia (.772), Vargas (.750). Wow - didn't expect that.

But what were their projections for those same players in 2015?  Probably about the same, and yet they posted OPS figures of .718 (Mauer & Arcia) and .626 (Vargas).

[Dantes929]

"he 2009, 2004 and 2002 teams were all division-winners, and in the case of '09 they did it without a particularly strong pitching staff, so you can certainly make the argument that this is a sensible approach for a team with question marks at the front of the rotation and in the bullpen."

Twins scoring in the last 15 years has been tied more to OBP than home runs.     Those three years you mentioned the Twins had OBP of over .332.     By contrast last year's team was at .305.     My fear is that if we get 200 home runs it will result in 200 runs.    I am not saying power and OBP are mutually exclusive but we need to strike out less and walk more or it won't matter how many we hit.   2009 has only 16 more homers than last year but they scored 121 more runs.  This was fueled by a .345 OBP.   Last year Sano was the only guy to beat that number.  

[Dantes929]

 

Small chance, imo, Buxton hits 15 homeruns next year, and I'll take the under on Escobar also. 

I will take the under on Park and Dozier for sure and maybe Buxton and Escobar and the over on Arcia whatever that number is.   Maybe $50 on each.    I will take the over on whatever people are predicting for the starting rotation.   (over in a good way)

[Thrylos]

 

I wonder how many ML or even AAA quality sliders down and away Park has seen?

 

Quite a few.  Arguably the best pitcher in KBO last season was former Twin Eric Hacker  (19-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9).  He has a decent slider and likes to throw it a lot.

Edited February 19, 2016 by Thrylos

[gunnarthor]

Man, 200 home runs would be great.  I'd certainly take the under but let's go for it!

[spinowner]

I think the surest under bet is Dozier. He gets most of his dingers on high cheese and at this stage in his career everyone knows that. Pitchers will know to stay with breaking pitches down and away, even when they are behind in the count. Unless he can make some big adjustments it's very unlikely that he'll hit more than 20 any season for the rest of his career. IMHO, of course.

Now, allow me to be optimistic but reasonable. 15 from the catcher position, 10 from Mauer, 25 from Vargas and/or Park, 20 from Dozier, 25 from Plouffe, 15 from Escobar, 20 from Rosario, 15 from Buxton, 25 from Arcia and 35 from Sano. Add another 10 from Nunez and/or whoever else. 215.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think the surest under bet is Dozier. He gets most of his dingers on high cheese and at this stage in his career everyone knows that. Pitchers will know to stay with breaking pitches down and away, even when they are behind in the count. Unless he can make some big adjustments it's very unlikely that he'll hit more than 20 any season for the rest of his career. IMHO, of course.

It's possible but I refuse to turn bearish on Dozier until he actually underperforms. Some have been predicting the fall of Brian Dozier for 1500 PAs but the guy just keeps hitting. He's approaching 2000 PAs of well above average offense. I can't fully buy into "pitchers have figured him out" because if it was that easy, they would have figured him out over 1000 PAs ago. In today's game, it doesn't take long to assemble a strategy to face a hitter, particularly one who turned high-profile almost overnight. it's not as if Dozier was able to fly under the radar of opposing pitchers because the mighty Twins offense made him an afterthought in past seasons; shut down Brian Dozier in 2013-2014 and you do a pretty good job of shutting down the Twins offense.

 

I'm not dismissing his lackluster second half performances, just pointing out that I think it's more complicated than pitchers finally building a book on the guy.

 

One thing rarely discussed about Dozier's 2015 fade is his BABIP of .209/.260/.222 in July/Aug/Sept. What does that mean? Not sure but it could easily be chalked up to some pretty bad luck. His K rate didn't change appreciably during those months, nor did his walk rate.

[TheLeviathan]

Eek, for my own sanity I'm going to have to avoid threads where Park's production is getting estimated.  

 

Woofta.

[scottz]

My opinions on your predictions.

Miguel Sano: 35 - I'd put no money on this one way or another. Seems about right.

Byung Ho Park: 30 - I'll take the under.

Brian Dozier: 25 - I'll take the under.

Trevor Plouffe: 20 - I'll take the under.

Eduardo Escobar: 15 - I'll take the under.

Eddie Rosario: 15 - I'll take the under.

Byron Buxton: 15 - I'll take the under.

Joe Mauer: 10 - I'll take the under.

Kurt Suzuki: 5 - I'll take the under.

 

Man, I must be a super pessimist today. I appreciate the write up. I just don't agree.

 

edited - spelling

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Eek, for my own sanity I'm going to have to avoid threads where Park's production is getting estimated.  

 

Woofta.

He will hit between 7 and 84 home runs in 2016.

 

Book it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

He will hit between 7 and 84 home runs in 2016.

 

Book it.

 

Pessimist.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

My opinions on your predictions.

Miguel Sano: 35 - I'd put no money on this one way or another. Seems about right.

Byung Ho Park: 30 - I'll take the under.

Brian Dozier: 25 - I'll take the under.

Trevor Plouffe: 20 - I'll take the under.

Eduardo Escobar: 15 - I'll take the under.

Eddie Rosario: 15 - I'll take the under.

Byron Buxton: 15 - I'll take the under.

Joe Mauer: 10 - I'll take the under.

Kurt Suzuki: 5 - I'll take the under.

 

Man, I must be a super pessimist today. I appreciate the write up. I just don't agree.

 

edited - spelling

I'd also take the under on almost all of these predictions but on the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Arcia jack 15-20 bombs in 2016 if he gets the playing time. In a full season, it wouldn't surprise me to see Oswaldo hit 25 homers if some team out there can stomach his outfield defense that often.

[Nick Nelson]

People were also certain that Dozier's power was going to fade after 2014, when he hit 5 HR post-ASG after hitting 23 before. Then he came back and hit 28 jacks in 2015. 

 

Do not underestimate this guy's ability to make his own adjustments. He's made a heck of a career out of just that. 

[Lefty]

 

People were also certain that Dozier's power was going to fade after 2014, when he hit 5 HR post-ASG after hitting 23 before. Then he came back and hit 28 jacks in 2015. 

 

Do not underestimate this guy's ability to make his own adjustments. He's made a heck of a career out of just that. 

I agree, Dozier has proven it more than anyone.  Its hard to put him less than 20.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think the surest under bet is Dozier. He gets most of his dingers on high cheese and at this stage in his career everyone knows that. Pitchers will know to stay with breaking pitches down and away, even when they are behind in the count. Unless he can make some big adjustments it's very unlikely that he'll hit more than 20 any season for the rest of his career. IMHO, of course.

Now, allow me to be optimistic but reasonable. 15 from the catcher position, 10 from Mauer, 25 from Vargas and/or Park, 20 from Dozier, 25 from Plouffe, 15 from Escobar, 20 from Rosario, 15 from Buxton, 25 from Arcia and 35 from Sano. Add another 10 from Nunez and/or whoever else. 215.

 

Everyone said that about him last year too, and yet he still got plenty of pitches to hit out.  I think Dozier's second half woes are likely attributable to something else personally. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

Are people afraid to put Sano at 40? I think he'll get there.

[scottz]

 

I'd also take the under on almost all of these predictions but on the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Arcia jack 15-20 bombs in 2016 if he gets the playing time. In a full season, it wouldn't surprise me to see Oswaldo hit 25 homers if some team out there can stomach his outfield defense that often.

I was also going to write something optimistic about Arcia's possibilities. Even if he just gets 300 ABs, 15 HR is a real possibility for him (assuming his ABs come against right-handers) - in his career against righties, he averages a HR every 17.1 AB.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are people afraid to put Sano at 40? I think he'll get there.

I think he'll get there but I'm skeptical it will be in 2016.

 

I'd be happy with 30 homers out of a 23 year old player.

[Rosterman]

Yeah, this is a tough one. We aren't getting many dingers from the catching spot, which made Mauer so valuable as a catcher...he could hit 10-12 dingers, plus the high average. That's weakness number one, now transfered to 1B, which becomes weakness #2, except that he is the Twins leader in getting and it doesn't matter how you egt a guy home sometimes, as long as he comes home. Dozier hits for good power at second base, yet do we need to drop him down in the order and would he regress coming up with two outs, say, rather than leading off. Escobar was a surprise with his power last season. is power more important than putting the ball in play is always the question. Sano at third would supply more punch and even a betetr average than Plouffe, but would Arcia in right do better than the current play places of Sano and Plouffe, that is the question. If you want home runs, give us a FULL season of Arcia and let's see what happens. Buxton will just have to hit and it may seem like the braintrust is playing him like Go-Go Gomez and making him use his bat and speed to get and move around bases. He will become a power-hitting centerfielder at some point. Rosario is really an enigma. He hits doubles and triples to go with his homers. He hits for a decent, not spectacular average. Unless he does show a gain in average and punch this season, he will be on the bubble. On the bench, Nunez has some power, as does Murphy. Santana, playing parttime and as a reserve? Well, let's say that if he starts the year in centerfield, he will hit more home runs than Buxton would in 2016. The Twins have the chance to get 30-35+ from Sano and Park, although both are still unproven for the long haul. They have a slugger in Arcia who needs playing time. They have no power at first or catcher...when you think that Escobar could hit more diners, or an equal amount of dingers for the pair combined. Sigh. What matters more is actually getting the runners home at some point, and putting yourself in a position to also score a run./

[Mike Sixel]

Year......number of players to hit 40 HR

 

2015......9

2014......1

2013.......2

2012......6

 

Predicting anyone to hit 40 seems a bit optimistic, imo. That said, I think Sano will be in that group more than 1 year of his career. I'm just not sure I can say which years with any certainty.

 

That's kind of how projections work. It is likely that Sano will hit 40 in 1 or more years, but in any 1 year, it is not likely......

Edited February 19, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[gunnarthor]

 

I wonder how many ML or even AAA quality sliders down and away Park has seen?

I asked my friend who is an international scout for the Royals if Park had seen ML quality sliders (not AAA) and he said no.  He also said Park will need an adjustment period - not sure how long - but eventually he made a comparison to Magglio Ordonez by "the end of the year one."

[Platoon]

I'd also take the under on almost all of these predictions but on the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Arcia jack 15-20 bombs in 2016 if he gets the playing time. In a full season, it wouldn't surprise me to see Oswaldo hit 25 homers if some team out there can stomach his outfield defense that often.

How about the Twins? They seem to have a well documented stomach for poor RF defense. My bet is by the end of the year, Arcias glove will look fairly decent compared to our new RF'er! Edited February 19, 2016 by Platoon

[tobi0040]

 

I asked my friend who is an international scout for the Royals if Park had seen ML quality sliders (not AAA) and he said no.  He also said Park will need an adjustment period - not sure how long - but eventually he made a comparison to Magglio Ordonez by "the end of the year one."

 

That is a real interesting comp.  If he was anywhere near Ordonez, that would be one of the best 4 year, $24m contracts of all time.

 

Based on what I have read about Park, that seems like a very long shot.  Mags has a career WAR of 40 and the composition of his offense doens't seem to fit Park.   Mags had a .309 career average, .871 OPS and averaged only 56 k's per year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, Ordonez career K rate: 11%, career worst: 13.5%

 

Park was up to 25% his last two years in Korea.

 

That would be a heck of an adjustment.

 

For reference, Kang's K rate as a rookie last year was basically the same as his recent rates in Korea.

[BoomBoom]

I like the MLB.com    Home Run projections    for the Twins 2016 Rookies .

Buxton; Kepler; Polanco; etc.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160125&content_id=162671830&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

 

I wonder if they could help with that 200 total as starters or bench players?

[Platoon]

People were also certain that Dozier's power was going to fade after 2014, when he hit 5 HR post-ASG after hitting 23 before. Then he came back and hit 28 jacks in 2015. 

 

Do not underestimate this guy's ability to make his own adjustments. He's made a heck of a career out of just that.

I I didn't see any adjustment at all. He got an inordinate amount of high FB to hit again in the first half of the year. Maybe it's harder to not throw that pitch than I would assume. But when he doesn't get one, it's a ground ball to SS. Perhaps explains his low BABIP in the second half. I will say that he seems to have the ability to hit a high % of that certain pitch put of the park, but that's about it. And that does not indicate adjustment.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But when he doesn't get one, it's a ground ball to SS. Perhaps explains his low BABIP in the second half.

If anything, that would increase his BABIP, as groundballs have a higher chance of turning into a hit than a flyball (though obviously not a line drive). Dozier's soft-medium-hard hit balls moved around as the season progressed (not in a positive way) but not so much that he should suddenly see a BABIP rivaling the most plodding of MLB players.

 

Dozier has a career BABIP of .269. His BABIP in Jul/Aug/Sep/Oct of 2016 was just under .230.

 

Dozier's GB% did skyrocket in the second half, though. It's a weird situation... Logic would infer that his BABIP should also rise a bit, not plummet as it did. Maybe it's likely that pitchers adjusted and he hit a dose of bad luck at the same time.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Don't underestimate Rosario. I really think he could be a 20 homer guy!!!