Mapping the Minnesota Twins' Future Payroll

Everyone from the most casual fan to Tom Pohlad agrees: if the Twins are going to be competitive, the team needs to spend more money. But how much (and when) is still up for debate. 

A couple years ago, I laid out the messy path ahead of the Twins. Beyond any familial mandate to cut payroll in 2024, one reason trouble could have been expected was that the team had built in several increases due in 2025, as well as 2026. Of course, the Twins figured out (shall we say) creative ways to ensure payroll remained low going into 2025, and they kept that pace this season. Keeping costs down seemed necessary when the team was considering a full-fledged sale to new owners. That possibility has come and gone (at least for now), though, and there are new investors on board, helping the Pohlad family out of whatever debt trouble they were ever actually in.

Now, Pohlad says he wants to get back to spending more competitively. If he's serious, he has options, and the flexibility to move in a few creative ways. Let’s look at a preview:

As things stand, the Twins will basically run the exact same payroll in 2027 as they did in 2026. After that, though, the financial commitments shrink considerably. That means the Twins have something long desired by every team: financial flexibility.

Free Agency:

The Twins will start the offseason by dumping three free-agent contracts from their books: A.J. Minter, Josh Bell, and Taylor Rogers. That doesn’t add up to much, but the real story begins the following year. The 2027 campaign will mark the end of deals for Pablo López, Jeff Hoffman (whose salary is partially covered by the Blue Jays), and Victor Caratini. Together, the three make up $41 million in current commitments.

After that, the only free agent signed through 2028 is heart-of-the-team Byron Buxton. When his time is up, the Twins have an open road. That’s quite different from some teams, who are looking at some unfavorable long-term contracts (see: Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres). Instead, the team’s current spending on free agency (or lack of any) gives a lot of wiggle room.

Arbitration

*2027 Arbitration numbers are estimates provided courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. 2028 and 2029 are educated guesses.

Assuming Jeffers is out the door, the Twins can look at next year as one of their more expensive arbitration years. But after that, the roster slims considerably. Assuming the Twins retain the services of Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis (all in Arb 3, though Lewis has a fourth year if it comes to that), the Twins will see a modest increase in arbitration spending. Even the team’s biggest commitment, Joe Ryan, will not see as much as he expected, due to his rough second half. Trade Rumors predicts $9.6 million, which is $3.5 million less than his current mutual option.

Going into 2028, the only final-arbitration-year players are Lewis and Cole Sands, who (on their current career trajectories) might not cost that much—if they remain on the team. The younger core will start to earn real money, but it takes a while to go from that to being genuinely pricey. The final-arb-year players for 2029 are Taj Bradley (expensive), Kody Clemens (a wild card), and Tommy Nance (likely gone by then). 

My model above assumed that the Twins will keep everyone’s services, but that also remains unlikely. Larnach has basically no role on a team that hopes to have Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall in the outfield alongside Byron Buxton. Ober would be nice to have—even at diminished value, $6.9 million is hardly a bad deal for 120 or so innings—but whether or not he fits a future rotation makes that role much harder to determine. 

Either way, the Twins don't have many arbitration commitments after 2027, until the next generation of rookies begins to climb the ladder.

Rookies

The Twins are on the precipice of graduating a substantial rookie class next year, which many hope will play the backbone of the team. They're certainly due for raises: MLB countered the union’s proposal of a $1.5 million minimum salary to instead bring rookie salaries from $780,000 to a clean $1 million. My calculations thus far suggested small step-ups for players on minimums, though. Keaschall will hit arbitration first in 2028, and everyone else a couple years down the road.

Correa

One last piece fits into the Twins’ salary puzzle over the next couple years: the last payments on the Carlos Correa contract. Pohlad owes Jim Crane a check for $10 million in 2027 and 2028, but after that, the deal closes, and the Twins can forget the odd years when Correa anchored the team.

When to Spend

Pohlad has recognized that spending needs to increase now. But I think the more important truth is that the team can add a lot over multiple years. If the Twins went big on payroll spending in 2027, they could simply have a lower payroll in 2028 based on normal sloughing-off of contracts. From that, it follows that if Pohlad is serious about investing in the roster, there's even more spending room ahead than a glance at 2027 might suggest.

Of course, losing payroll means losing players. The Twins need to replace two aces (and whatever you think of Ober and Kremer) in two years (or less), while basically building a new bullpen from scratch. That might mean trades for more pricey assets, and that might mean having to double current spending in some positions. There are pieces in place (or on the way) at key positions—Marek Houston at shortstop and Vahn Lackey at catcher, for instance—but betting on prospects can be a fool’s errand (ask Jackson Holliday), and the pitching prospects have upside but unclear floors.

I think it’s fair for Pohlad to commit to a sliding scale, rather than a set number. There’s no reason to get into a bidding war out of desperation. Besides, I think we have some idea of what he’ll spend. In June, MLB proposed their salary cap system. It’s an awful idea for many reasons, but one of the proposals did include a salary floor of $171.2 million. That number wouldn't be a direct analog for current payrolls, anyway; it bakes in lots of other costs. Nor are we anywhere near actually having a cap and floor come into effect. One way or another, though, we're likely to see the Twins' payroll rise by at least $25 million this offseason—and twice that is possible.

The more important questions are about 2028 and 2029, anyway. The Twins thus will almost certainly be spending quite a few more dollars in the next few years, and unlike the last time we thought so, it won't be just to fulfill commitments they've already made. They have an open road in front of them.

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