Offseason Status Update: Arbitration, 40-Man Pruning, Vázquez Rumors

It really was depressing and deflating to hear Falvey talk about reducing payroll after the season they had. Ownership has plenty of money. Enough to keep the payroll where it's currently at. Even bump it a bit. The Twins just aren't their priority. They just don't seem to want to do what's necessary for another WS trophy. Sure, the loss of revenue from the tv package hurts. We're not the only team in that boat. I hope that Falvey is throwing up a little bit of a smoke screen, and will surprise us with what he does over the winter...in both signings and trades. 

Trading Vazquez still makes no sense as far as cutting the budget. You'll end up paying someone to take him plus paying a Leon type to fill in as backup. Any savings would be minimal the difference in overall loss in talent would be Immense.

"There's no other way to frame it: The start of this offseason has been flat-out deflating for Minnesota Twins fans. After watching a promising ALDS fizzle out at Target Field, we've since been informed directly by the team's leadership that we can expect payroll cuts next year. It's a splash of cold water following the franchise's much-awaited resurgence. Thus far, everything we've seen from the Twins in a slow start to the offseason has been suggestive of a commitment to the status quo."

Yep, that 2023 Carlos Correa deal was sure a status quo move, as was trading away the popular Luis Arraez to take a chance on Pablo Lopez..  After the TV deal disappeared (temporarily), so were exercising the options on team veterans Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco and giving a qualifying offer to a 35-year-old Sonny Gray.  Under the circumstances, Falvine have prepared the Twins tactically well for such a time as this, which I never expected to say even six months ago. No deflation here. 

53 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Trading Vazquez still makes no sense as far as cutting the budget. You'll end up paying someone to take him plus paying a Leon type to fill in as backup. Any savings would be minimal the difference in overall loss in talent would be Immense.

And Vazquez  hitting shouldn't be any worse next year ...

I Like the guys defense over Jeffers  absolutely  ...

Never know how the first season effected his first year transitioning to the Twins method , after one season getting acquainted with the Twins way  , he should be a little more relaxed and hit better in my opinion  ...

One never knows . .

41 minutes ago, Dman said:

Twins are in an interesting spot.  They technically don't "have" to trade anyone as they are below their self imposed cap limit right now.  They could do a bargain bin 5th starter, waiver claim relievers and get creative with center and first base.  They could stand pat if they want to.

If they want to better roster balance then trading Polanco makes the most sense to me and they could trade Farmer as well if they needed more financial wiggle room. They need to get back something substantial though otherwise it makes more sense just to keep Polanco as they are a playoff ready team.

Like it or not it feels like they need Kepler for one more season while we wait and see how close Rosario and Rodriguez are to helping in 2024.  They would need to get something serious back to trade Kepler and I can't see another team believing his second half numbers against mainly sub .500 clubs is sustainable.  I don't think they can get the value they need back to make it worth trading him.

I don't think it makes sense to trade Vasquez in any way shape or form.  They need his defense and I think he hits better next year anyway.  Yeah 10M is too high for his production but they wanted him and paid the price in Free Agency to get him.  Next year is the year they need to trade him IMO not this year.

They might trade for another arm but it needs to be for a mid rotation arm not some 5th starter type as they have Varland, Festa and possibly Headrick and SWR for that role.  The cost to get that done is going to be high though.  

I am curious as to what they are going to be able to get done and feel that like most years it will be later deal when there are fewer free agency options left and teams have to make hard decision about how to balance rosters.

For the most part I agree with you.

The Twins had truly competitive team and right now it looks like that team is history.

IF, just IF, they lose Taylor, Kepler, Vazquez and Polanco their playoff days are gone.

Wallner is Gallo with out the fielding skills, while they do not have a First Baseman with Gallo's fielding skills or even who will be there most games.

Julien at Second is a hole in the defense, so that leaves Lewis as the only fairly sure thing.

If Maeda and Gray leave; the good pitching staff that writers wrote of is gone.

A lot can/may  happen but right now mediocre at best.

20 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Higher payroll doesn't correlate directly to on-field success.  The Twins supposedly have good prospects in key areas, they just lost $40 million annually in TV revenue and 2023 attendance for a decent team wasn't anywhere near attendance in the first five years after TF opened.  So, let's see if the kids can step up before we do the sad-trombone bit.

THis is Major League, not AAA.

Twins broke a losing string and showed a possible bright future; crap on fans hope now will show where Pohlads really care -- dollar signs.

It’ll be fine, Buxton will be healthy🤣

4 hours ago, BH67 said:

Yep, that 2023 Carlos Correa deal was sure a status quo move, as was trading away the popular Luis Arraez to take a chance on Pablo Lopez..  After the TV deal disappeared (temporarily), so were exercising the options on team veterans Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco and giving a qualifying offer to a 35-year-old Sonny Gray.  Under the circumstances, Falvine have prepared the Twins tactically well for such a time as this, which I never expected to say even six months ago. No deflation here. 

That 2023 Carlos Correa deal is what is leading to the Twins cutting payroll. Overspending eventually leads to cuts and the biggest overspend goes to the guy with the highest payroll. In 2023 Correa was about the 15th ranked SS in the majors and he was paid like he was top 3. Add in Buxtons $15M for being a "half the time DH" and you've got the two biggest flushes down the toilet of cash in Twins history.

25 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Naming moves from last offseason is a weird way to disagree with my assessment of this offseason.

Are you really saying that making obvious moves on Kepler, Polanco and Gray is a deviation from the status quo? 

You mean maintaining a status quo that was considerably higher than the previous status quo post-Bomba Squad, while doing so in a way that reflects the hopefully temporary obstacle of considerably reduced revenue?

The other commenter complained about the wasted funds on Correa and Buxton to get us to the current level of competitiveness. Will you challenge his assertions here likewise?

26 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The kids did step up! They had the most impactful rookie class in franchise history and won 87 games. I think that's why people would understandably like to see some investment around that core.

Healthy Lewis is not moving, Jeffers is not as good a catcher as Vazquez and should not be primary catcher, Julien is a hole in the defense , Polanco is not.

Unless there is a major veteran dump/pick-up that is not changing.

Taylor in the outfield will be sorely missed unless Buxton can play there; Kepler's quality cannot be replaced and Wallner has been OK so far in left.

Castro , Farmer and Solano filled a good team, what is left next year might just be a shadow and no place to see if rookies are good enough or best left to learn more in AAA.

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Cutting out Gallo's salary is a reduction, as is losing Gray and his salary. Now it comes down to what to do about replacing Gray? Do they count on Varland with guys like SWR and Festa and Headrick in reserve in St. Paul? As is, w/o any new faces I think they win the division again. That said, I would feel more confident if they could re-sign Maeda. I haven't seen anywhere what he is asking, has anyone else?

Yes, less Gallo and Gray, payroll is less. Replacing Gallo is not needed. Replacing Gray is. Lopez is more of a #2 starter than an Ace. Paddack cannot be relied upon for a full season coming off TJ surgery. That leaves Ryan and Ober as the only other 2 starters with Lopez that you would consider as sure things. History has shown us that it's very probable that 1 of those 3 will not pitch an entire season. Detroit is getting better and if the Twins don't continue to put the gas on the pedal they will overtake them, if not in 2024 then 2025. One #1 starter like Gray must be signed if they are going to repeat as division champs. They need the young kids like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda to get at bats and continue to get better. More of the future is just around the corner with guys like Lee, Jenkins, Miller, Rodriguez coming soon. I don't trade from an area without a lot of depth and the Twins don't have it at catcher if they trade Vazquez. One injury to Jeffers and without Vazquez they are in a dire situation immediately. They have a lot of 2B and CO. Trading Polanco and Kepler would free up twice as much salary as trading one Vazquez and they have multiple players that can play 2B and RF. Anything else is just wasted effort though if they don't get another front line starting pitcher. That should be priority #1 even if it's the only thing they do.

Oh, to turn back the hands of time and free up the $$$ tied up in BB &CC. 🤷‍♂️

14 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Higher payroll doesn't correlate directly to on-field success.  The Twins supposedly have good prospects in key areas, they just lost $40 million annually in TV revenue and 2023 attendance for a decent team wasn't anywhere near attendance in the first five years after TF opened.  So, let's see if the kids can step up before we do the sad-trombone bit.

All the evidence says higher payroll directly correlates to on-field success

viewcontent.cgi (valpo.edu)

Pay to Play: An Analysis of Payroll and Performance in the MLB and NBA – The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

The strong connection between MLB payrolls and wins (axios.com)

In 2019, Team Payroll and Wins Are Closely Linked | FanGraphs Baseball

viewcontent.cgi (iwu.edu)

Chapter 18 Assignment: Moneyball | Data Analytics Coding Fundamentals (bookdown.org)

The Influence of Money in MLB, 1985-2014 - Bluebird Banter

If the Twins lose all of their TV revenue this offseason they're completely incompetent at running the team and should sell it to someone else who knows how to make money.

18 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Trading Vazquez still makes no sense as far as cutting the budget. You'll end up paying someone to take him plus paying a Leon type to fill in as backup. Any savings would be minimal the difference in overall loss in talent would be Immense.

I think Vazquez as a back up catcher and his salary is a luxury that the Twins don't need with Camargo appearing to be ready to back up Jeffers.