Offseason Status Update: Arbitration, 40-Man Pruning, Vázquez Rumors

CRF · November 25, 2023

It really was depressing and deflating to hear Falvey talk about reducing payroll after the season they had. Ownership has plenty of money. Enough to keep the payroll where it's currently at. Even bump it a bit. The Twins just aren't their priority. They just don't seem to want to do what's necessary for another WS trophy. Sure, the loss of revenue from the tv package hurts. We're not the only team in that boat. I hope that Falvey is throwing up a little bit of a smoke screen, and will surprise us with what he does over the winter...in both signings and trades.

Doctor Gast · November 25, 2023

Trading Vazquez still makes no sense as far as cutting the budget. You'll end up paying someone to take him plus paying a Leon type to fill in as backup. Any savings would be minimal the difference in overall loss in talent would be Immense.

BH67 · November 25, 2023

"There's no other way to frame it: The start of this offseason has been flat-out deflating for Minnesota Twins fans. After watching a promising ALDS fizzle out at Target Field, we've since been informed directly by the team's leadership that we can expect payroll cuts next year. It's a splash of cold water following the franchise's much-awaited resurgence. Thus far, everything we've seen from the Twins in a slow start to the offseason has been suggestive of a commitment to the status quo."

Yep, that 2023 Carlos Correa deal was sure a status quo move, as was trading away the popular Luis Arraez to take a chance on Pablo Lopez.. After the TV deal disappeared (temporarily), so were exercising the options on team veterans Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco and giving a qualifying offer to a 35-year-old Sonny Gray. Under the circumstances, Falvine have prepared the Twins tactically well for such a time as this, which I never expected to say even six months ago. No deflation here.

Blyleven2011 · November 25, 2023

53 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Trading Vazquez still makes no sense as far as cutting the budget. You'll end up paying someone to take him plus paying a Leon type to fill in as backup. Any savings would be minimal the difference in overall loss in talent would be Immense.

And Vazquez hitting shouldn't be any worse next year ...

I Like the guys defense over Jeffers absolutely ...

Never know how the first season effected his first year transitioning to the Twins method , after one season getting acquainted with the Twins way , he should be a little more relaxed and hit better in my opinion ...

One never knows . .

Parfigliano · November 25, 2023

52 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

And Vazquez hitting shouldn't be any worse next year ...

I Like the guys defense over Jeffers absolutely ...

Never know how the first season effected his first year transitioning to the Twins method , after one season getting acquainted with the Twins way , he should be a little more relaxed and hit better in my opinion ...

One never knows . .

Could Vasquez bat be worse? Last year has to be a bottom.

Dman · November 25, 2023

Twins are in an interesting spot. They technically don't "have" to trade anyone as they are below their self imposed cap limit right now. They could do a bargain bin 5th starter, waiver claim relievers and get creative with center and first base. They could stand pat if they want to.

If they want to better roster balance then trading Polanco makes the most sense to me and they could trade Farmer as well if they needed more financial wiggle room. They need to get back something substantial though otherwise it makes more sense just to keep Polanco as they are a playoff ready team.

Like it or not it feels like they need Kepler for one more season while we wait and see how close Rosario and Rodriguez are to helping in 2024. They would need to get something serious back to trade Kepler and I can't see another team believing his second half numbers against mainly sub .500 clubs is sustainable. I don't think they can get the value they need back to make it worth trading him.

I don't think it makes sense to trade Vasquez in any way shape or form. They need his defense and I think he hits better next year anyway. Yeah 10M is too high for his production but they wanted him and paid the price in Free Agency to get him. Next year is the year they need to trade him IMO not this year.

They might trade for another arm but it needs to be for a mid rotation arm not some 5th starter type as they have Varland, Festa and possibly Headrick and SWR for that role. The cost to get that done is going to be high though.

I am curious as to what they are going to be able to get done and feel that like most years it will be later deal when there are fewer free agency options left and teams have to make hard decision about how to balance rosters.

arby58 · November 25, 2023

2 hours ago, CRF said:

It really was depressing and deflating to hear Falvey talk about reducing payroll after the season they had. Ownership has plenty of money. Enough to keep the payroll where it's currently at. Even bump it a bit. The Twins just aren't their priority. They just don't seem to want to do what's necessary for another WS trophy. Sure, the loss of revenue from the tv package hurts. We're not the only team in that boat. I hope that Falvey is throwing up a little bit of a smoke screen, and will surprise us with what he does over the winter...in both signings and trades.

The top three teams in payroll last year did not make the play-offs. The Diamondbacks were in the World Series with a payroll that ranked 21/30 in MLB.

RpR · November 25, 2023

41 minutes ago, Dman said:

Twins are in an interesting spot. They technically don't "have" to trade anyone as they are below their self imposed cap limit right now. They could do a bargain bin 5th starter, waiver claim relievers and get creative with center and first base. They could stand pat if they want to.

If they want to better roster balance then trading Polanco makes the most sense to me and they could trade Farmer as well if they needed more financial wiggle room. They need to get back something substantial though otherwise it makes more sense just to keep Polanco as they are a playoff ready team.

Like it or not it feels like they need Kepler for one more season while we wait and see how close Rosario and Rodriguez are to helping in 2024. They would need to get something serious back to trade Kepler and I can't see another team believing his second half numbers against mainly sub .500 clubs is sustainable. I don't think they can get the value they need back to make it worth trading him.

I don't think it makes sense to trade Vasquez in any way shape or form. They need his defense and I think he hits better next year anyway. Yeah 10M is too high for his production but they wanted him and paid the price in Free Agency to get him. Next year is the year they need to trade him IMO not this year.

They might trade for another arm but it needs to be for a mid rotation arm not some 5th starter type as they have Varland, Festa and possibly Headrick and SWR for that role. The cost to get that done is going to be high though.

I am curious as to what they are going to be able to get done and feel that like most years it will be later deal when there are fewer free agency options left and teams have to make hard decision about how to balance rosters.

For the most part I agree with you.

The Twins had truly competitive team and right now it looks like that team is history.

IF, just IF, they lose Taylor, Kepler, Vazquez and Polanco their playoff days are gone.

Wallner is Gallo with out the fielding skills, while they do not have a First Baseman with Gallo's fielding skills or even who will be there most games.

Julien at Second is a hole in the defense, so that leaves Lewis as the only fairly sure thing.

If Maeda and Gray leave; the good pitching staff that writers wrote of is gone.

A lot can/may happen but right now mediocre at best.

November 25, 2023

Higher payroll doesn't correlate directly to on-field success. The Twins supposedly have good prospects in key areas, they just lost $40 million annually in TV revenue and 2023 attendance for a decent team wasn't anywhere near attendance in the first five years after TF opened. So, let's see if the kids can step up before we do the sad-trombone bit.

RpR · November 26, 2023

20 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Higher payroll doesn't correlate directly to on-field success. The Twins supposedly have good prospects in key areas, they just lost $40 million annually in TV revenue and 2023 attendance for a decent team wasn't anywhere near attendance in the first five years after TF opened. So, let's see if the kids can step up before we do the sad-trombone bit.

THis is Major League, not AAA.

Twins broke a losing string and showed a possible bright future; crap on fans hope now will show where Pohlads really care -- dollar signs.

Fatbat · November 26, 2023

It’ll be fine, Buxton will be healthy🤣

rv78 · November 26, 2023

4 hours ago, BH67 said:

Yep, that 2023 Carlos Correa deal was sure a status quo move, as was trading away the popular Luis Arraez to take a chance on Pablo Lopez.. After the TV deal disappeared (temporarily), so were exercising the options on team veterans Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco and giving a qualifying offer to a 35-year-old Sonny Gray. Under the circumstances, Falvine have prepared the Twins tactically well for such a time as this, which I never expected to say even six months ago. No deflation here.

That 2023 Carlos Correa deal is what is leading to the Twins cutting payroll. Overspending eventually leads to cuts and the biggest overspend goes to the guy with the highest payroll. In 2023 Correa was about the 15th ranked SS in the majors and he was paid like he was top 3. Add in Buxtons $15M for being a "half the time DH" and you've got the two biggest flushes down the toilet of cash in Twins history.

Nick Nelson · November 26, 2023

4 hours ago, BH67 said:

"There's no other way to frame it: The start of this offseason has been flat-out deflating for Minnesota Twins fans. After watching a promising ALDS fizzle out at Target Field, we've since been informed directly by the team's leadership that we can expect payroll cuts next year. It's a splash of cold water following the franchise's much-awaited resurgence. Thus far, everything we've seen from the Twins in a slow start to the offseason has been suggestive of a commitment to the status quo."

Yep, that 2023 Carlos Correa deal was sure a status quo move, as was trading away the popular Luis Arraez to take a chance on Pablo Lopez.. After the TV deal disappeared (temporarily), so were exercising the options on team veterans Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco and giving a qualifying offer to a 35-year-old Sonny Gray. Under the circumstances, Falvine have prepared the Twins tactically well for such a time as this, which I never expected to say even six months ago. No deflation here.

Naming moves from last offseason is a weird way to disagree with my assessment of this offseason.

Are you really saying that making obvious moves on Kepler, Polanco and Gray is a deviation from the status quo?

Nick Nelson · November 26, 2023

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Higher payroll doesn't correlate directly to on-field success. The Twins supposedly have good prospects in key areas, they just lost $40 million annually in TV revenue and 2023 attendance for a decent team wasn't anywhere near attendance in the first five years after TF opened. So, let's see if the kids can step up before we do the sad-trombone bit.

The kids did step up! They had the most impactful rookie class in franchise history and won 87 games. I think that's why people would understandably like to see some investment around that core.

BH67 · November 26, 2023

25 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Naming moves from last offseason is a weird way to disagree with my assessment of this offseason.

Are you really saying that making obvious moves on Kepler, Polanco and Gray is a deviation from the status quo?

You mean maintaining a status quo that was considerably higher than the previous status quo post-Bomba Squad, while doing so in a way that reflects the hopefully temporary obstacle of considerably reduced revenue?

The other commenter complained about the wasted funds on Correa and Buxton to get us to the current level of competitiveness. Will you challenge his assertions here likewise?

RpR · November 26, 2023

26 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The kids did step up! They had the most impactful rookie class in franchise history and won 87 games. I think that's why people would understandably like to see some investment around that core.

Healthy Lewis is not moving, Jeffers is not as good a catcher as Vazquez and should not be primary catcher, Julien is a hole in the defense , Polanco is not.

Unless there is a major veteran dump/pick-up that is not changing.

Taylor in the outfield will be sorely missed unless Buxton can play there; Kepler's quality cannot be replaced and Wallner has been OK so far in left.

Castro , Farmer and Solano filled a good team, what is left next year might just be a shadow and no place to see if rookies are good enough or best left to learn more in AAA.

Karbo · November 26, 2023

Cutting out Gallo's salary is a reduction, as is losing Gray and his salary. Now it comes down to what to do about replacing Gray? Do they count on Varland with guys like SWR and Festa and Headrick in reserve in St. Paul? As is, w/o any new faces I think they win the division again. That said, I would feel more confident if they could re-sign Maeda. I haven't seen anywhere what he is asking, has anyone else?

rv78 · November 26, 2023

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Cutting out Gallo's salary is a reduction, as is losing Gray and his salary. Now it comes down to what to do about replacing Gray? Do they count on Varland with guys like SWR and Festa and Headrick in reserve in St. Paul? As is, w/o any new faces I think they win the division again. That said, I would feel more confident if they could re-sign Maeda. I haven't seen anywhere what he is asking, has anyone else?

Yes, less Gallo and Gray, payroll is less. Replacing Gallo is not needed. Replacing Gray is. Lopez is more of a #2 starter than an Ace. Paddack cannot be relied upon for a full season coming off TJ surgery. That leaves Ryan and Ober as the only other 2 starters with Lopez that you would consider as sure things. History has shown us that it's very probable that 1 of those 3 will not pitch an entire season. Detroit is getting better and if the Twins don't continue to put the gas on the pedal they will overtake them, if not in 2024 then 2025. One #1 starter like Gray must be signed if they are going to repeat as division champs. They need the young kids like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda to get at bats and continue to get better. More of the future is just around the corner with guys like Lee, Jenkins, Miller, Rodriguez coming soon. I don't trade from an area without a lot of depth and the Twins don't have it at catcher if they trade Vazquez. One injury to Jeffers and without Vazquez they are in a dire situation immediately. They have a lot of 2B and CO. Trading Polanco and Kepler would free up twice as much salary as trading one Vazquez and they have multiple players that can play 2B and RF. Anything else is just wasted effort though if they don't get another front line starting pitcher. That should be priority #1 even if it's the only thing they do.

Maybebaby · November 26, 2023

Oh, to turn back the hands of time and free up the $$$ tied up in BB &CC. 🤷‍♂️

tarheeltwinsfan · November 26, 2023

16 hours ago, Dman said:

They would need to get something serious back to trade Kepler and I can't see another team believing his second half numbers against mainly sub .500 clubs is sustainable. I don't think they can get the value they need back to make it worth trading him.

Good point about Kep's second half being against mainly sub .500 clubs. The same is true for all Twins who had second half surges in 2023. It was an unbalanced schedule, with a really tough first half and a really easy second half.

Vanimal46 · November 26, 2023

I’m not really buying in on the idea of trading Vazquez this winter. His value is at the lowest it can be - in order to trade him now the Twins will have to eat around $10 of the remaining $20 million on his contract, or attach him with a pretty good prospect.

Why not wait until the 2024 trade deadline to see if he bounces back? The catcher position is weak throughout MLB and there will be opportunities down the road.

DJL44 · November 26, 2023

14 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Higher payroll doesn't correlate directly to on-field success. The Twins supposedly have good prospects in key areas, they just lost $40 million annually in TV revenue and 2023 attendance for a decent team wasn't anywhere near attendance in the first five years after TF opened. So, let's see if the kids can step up before we do the sad-trombone bit.

All the evidence says higher payroll directly correlates to on-field success

viewcontent.cgi (valpo.edu)

Pay to Play: An Analysis of Payroll and Performance in the MLB and NBA – The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

The strong connection between MLB payrolls and wins (axios.com)

In 2019, Team Payroll and Wins Are Closely Linked | FanGraphs Baseball

viewcontent.cgi (iwu.edu)

Chapter 18 Assignment: Moneyball | Data Analytics Coding Fundamentals (bookdown.org)

The Influence of Money in MLB, 1985-2014 - Bluebird Banter

If the Twins lose all of their TV revenue this offseason they're completely incompetent at running the team and should sell it to someone else who knows how to make money.

arby58 · November 26, 2023

As a Twins fan, my thought is it's a little early in the off-season to be deflated. This front office has generally shown patience in its moves - and last year's example suggests it's too early to make projections on moves that might be made. Last offseason, Correa was signed on 1/11/23, Lopez was acquired via trade on 1/20/23, Michael Taylor was acquired on 1/23/23, and Solano signed on 2/23/23.

saviking · November 26, 2023

13 hours ago, rv78 said:

That 2023 Carlos Correa deal is what is leading to the Twins cutting payroll. Overspending eventually leads to cuts and the biggest overspend goes to the guy with the highest payroll. In 2023 Correa was about the 15th ranked SS in the majors and he was paid like he was top 3. Add in Buxtons $15M for being a "half the time DH" and you've got the two biggest flushes down the toilet of cash in Twins history.

I've been saying this all season but most don't want to acknowledge signing Correa was a bad move especially when they had Lewis and Lee cued up to play shortstop ..

Jeff K · November 26, 2023

18 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Trading Vazquez still makes no sense as far as cutting the budget. You'll end up paying someone to take him plus paying a Leon type to fill in as backup. Any savings would be minimal the difference in overall loss in talent would be Immense.

I think Vazquez as a back up catcher and his salary is a luxury that the Twins don't need with Camargo appearing to be ready to back up Jeffers.

stringer bell · November 26, 2023

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Yes, less Gallo and Gray, payroll is less. Replacing Gallo is not needed. Replacing Gray is. Lopez is more of a #2 starter than an Ace. Paddack cannot be relied upon for a full season coming off TJ surgery. That leaves Ryan and Ober as the only other 2 starters with Lopez that you would consider as sure things. History has shown us that it's very probable that 1 of those 3 will not pitch an entire season. Detroit is getting better and if the Twins don't continue to put the gas on the pedal they will overtake them, if not in 2024 then 2025. One #1 starter like Gray must be signed if they are going to repeat as division champs. They need the young kids like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda to get at bats and continue to get better. More of the future is just around the corner with guys like Lee, Jenkins, Miller, Rodriguez coming soon. I don't trade from an area without a lot of depth and the Twins don't have it at catcher if they trade Vazquez. One injury to Jeffers and without Vazquez they are in a dire situation immediately. They have a lot of 2B and CO. Trading Polanco and Kepler would free up twice as much salary as trading one Vazquez and they have multiple players that can play 2B and RF. Anything else is just wasted effort though if they don't get another front line starting pitcher. That should be priority #1 even if it's the only thing they do.

Paddack had is TJ surgery in April of '22, so he is closer to two years past TJ. He has an injury history, of course, and could well end up on the injured list in the coming season, but so too could Ober, Ryan and López.

I would consider López as an ace, every bit as much as Gray and maybe more so.

stringer bell · November 26, 2023

I think the front office has taught us to wait until the off season is over before evaluating the results. Hopefully there will be some resolution of the TV deal sometime this winter. When there is some certainty of that revenue, the Twins might open up their spending a bit.

Karbo · November 26, 2023

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Yes, less Gallo and Gray, payroll is less. Replacing Gallo is not needed. Replacing Gray is. Lopez is more of a #2 starter than an Ace. Paddack cannot be relied upon for a full season coming off TJ surgery. That leaves Ryan and Ober as the only other 2 starters with Lopez that you would consider as sure things. History has shown us that it's very probable that 1 of those 3 will not pitch an entire season. Detroit is getting better and if the Twins don't continue to put the gas on the pedal they will overtake them, if not in 2024 then 2025. One #1 starter like Gray must be signed if they are going to repeat as division champs. They need the young kids like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda to get at bats and continue to get better. More of the future is just around the corner with guys like Lee, Jenkins, Miller, Rodriguez coming soon. I don't trade from an area without a lot of depth and the Twins don't have it at catcher if they trade Vazquez. One injury to Jeffers and without Vazquez they are in a dire situation immediately. They have a lot of 2B and CO. Trading Polanco and Kepler would free up twice as much salary as trading one Vazquez and they have multiple players that can play 2B and RF. Anything else is just wasted effort though if they don't get another front line starting pitcher. That should be priority #1 even if it's the only thing they do.

I agree with most of what you said. But, I do think Lopez is a #1 and Paddack a #2. Yes you are right that Paddack will have some sort of innings limit. Last season Ober pitched like a #3, if he stays healthy, and Ryan and Varland are #4's I believe. They have SWR and Headrick and Festa for spot starts down in St. Paul. That's where things are a little shaky IMO. That's why if they can get a starter like Maeda in the 10 mil plus incentives range I feel this team will be very competitive. Correa will hit better this year, the 3 rookies have more time in, IMO Miranda will make some noise if healthy. I'd like to see them keep Farmer, but I'm thinking he will be traded to trim payroll. Biggest wild card is Buxton. If he can't play in the field he has little to no value at DH, and in reality, last season clogged up a valuable spot in the lineup.

JD-TWINS · November 26, 2023

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Yes, less Gallo and Gray, payroll is less. Replacing Gallo is not needed. Replacing Gray is. Lopez is more of a #2 starter than an Ace. Paddack cannot be relied upon for a full season coming off TJ surgery. That leaves Ryan and Ober as the only other 2 starters with Lopez that you would consider as sure things. History has shown us that it's very probable that 1 of those 3 will not pitch an entire season. Detroit is getting better and if the Twins don't continue to put the gas on the pedal they will overtake them, if not in 2024 then 2025. One #1 starter like Gray must be signed if they are going to repeat as division champs. They need the young kids like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda to get at bats and continue to get better. More of the future is just around the corner with guys like Lee, Jenkins, Miller, Rodriguez coming soon. I don't trade from an area without a lot of depth and the Twins don't have it at catcher if they trade Vazquez. One injury to Jeffers and without Vazquez they are in a dire situation immediately. They have a lot of 2B and CO. Trading Polanco and Kepler would free up twice as much salary as trading one Vazquez and they have multiple players that can play 2B and RF. Anything else is just wasted effort though if they don't get another front line starting pitcher. That should be priority #1 even if it's the only thing they do.

Perfect teams don’t exist.

Pablo Lopez was 2nd in League & top 5 in baseball in K’s. He’s 23rd in ERA in ‘23. There’s 30 teams - he’s an ACE. After watching 2 playoff starts, I pitch him in front of Gray every day of the week!

How many other staffs have 6 starters that are very capable of sub 4.00 ERA & over .500 W-L records?………we currently have 5 guys. We could certainly use another but trading Vazquez doesn’t help us from a pitching standpoint. Vazquez was 4th best defensive catcher in AL, handles catchers great - need to hang in to him as valuable depth guy! Spending $12.5M total on 2 good catchers is OK spending.

Gallo - Gray - Mahle - Taylor - Solano & a Polanco trade totals around $50M from last year’s $154M total………after the arbitration guys were given offers, we’re at around $114M……..that’s $25M to work with, after an assumed 10% reduction in payroll.

J. Montgomery is an option within payroll at $137M total……trading for Devin Williams & signing Seth Lugo as FA is an option at $133M total…….,There are many paths to a solid staff and I have confidence that the FO will spend & trade to the Team’s benefit.

PatPfund · November 26, 2023

Great summary of the off-season so far, though I am not bummed out at all by the payroll situation.

A) the cut in payroll may not even be true (the Twins are a pretty taut ship to be "leaking" such a strategic information; I suspect layers of strategy in play). Also, now is not 2024 (when streaming/TV revenue is likely to be resolved into something more concrete to plan around.)

B) Even if payroll cuts happen, all it really means is we might be spared $10 million contracts on reclamation position player projects like Joey Gallo, and that we will likely lean heavily on internal solutions for many key spots (like C with Camargo, 2nd and 3rd with full seasons of Julien and Lewis, 1B with Kirilloff and Miranda, and maybe CF with Martin).

That should leave plenty of money to pursue a free agent arm (not from the top tier), and one through trade; probably one we haven't even thought of yet. It also leaves room to add complementary professionals late to supplement the roster or help replace any players traded away (players like MAT or Solano still available in Jan/Feb). Who knows, maybe they even figure out a way to get something from Byron! (Two weeks active, followed by two weeks on IL? All season long?)

The most exciting part of 2023 came when the Twins started leaning into their youth movement, and that part of the team is still (so far) intact for 2024, and along with it my excitement (so far) for next season.

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