The Clock Has Struck Midnight for Trevor Larnach

Look at bundling him with Polanco.  Those two, plus a prospect, would bring in a nice pitcher.

The underlying gist of this article is that Larnach has not fulfilled his promise and doesn’t look to be part of the Twins’ plans for the future.

Assuming this is correct (and I for one am not there yet), the bigger questions are 1) how/why did this happen and 2) how do we get better at improving the results of our solid minor league prospects transitioning into the bigs?

Larnach is not the first. There are many others.  Among the current crop, Miranda and, to a lesser extent, Kiriloff are similar examples.  How do we make sure Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Martin don’t fall into this category? Why did Steer, CES and Rooker, three of our “less heralded” prospects we traded instead of Miranda and Larnach, have such a successful transition? Sure we’ve had successes over the years, but a high success rate in the transition has to be the hallmark of any small to mid market team hoping to compete.

With the batch of young talent transitioning in this year and over the following two seasons, one would think that substantial thought, data analysis, and resources would be devoted to this issue/opportunity.

Trevor L might just be one of those guys who needs to know coming into spring training he is the guy. I think if he came in and had a full year with no DL and wasn't fighting for a roster spot, maybe he might relax a bit and we could see some of those AAA numbers at the top level.

I am also having trouble with the surplus of OF after reading the various TD essays.  We are hurting at CF, we have Wallner and Kepler on the corners and seem to think Kepler will be gone.  We project sudden fame for Austin Martin without much proof and look at Castro and  Gordon as OFs even though they began as IFs and are really utility guys. 

Now Larnach has really disappointed me and I was expecting so much more, but with the obvious evidence I ask why his addition to a trade would move the needle at all.  Other teams no more than we do.  

Maybe the A's can pair him with Rooker, or the Tigers can add him to Baddoo, but I am not seeing value nor do I see a compelling reason to have him take a 40 man spot. 

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am also having trouble with the surplus of OF after reading the various TD essays.  We are hurting at CF, we have Wallner and Kepler on the corners and seem to think Kepler will be gone.  We project sudden fame for Austin Martin without much proof and look at Castro and  Gordon as OFs even though they began as IFs and are really utility guys. 

Now Larnach has really disappointed me and I was expecting so much more, but with the obvious evidence I ask why his addition to a trade would move the needle at all.  Other teams no more than we do.  

Maybe the A's can pair him with Rooker, or the Tigers can add him to Baddoo, but I am not seeing value nor do I see a compelling reason to have him take a 40 man spot. 

I doubt anyone in baseball "values" Larnach more than we Twins fans.  And we are almost universally ready to trade him for a better player(s).  

Unfortunately, that pretty much sums up his value for his most optimistic fans: not good enough for us, but somehow valuable enough to be major trade component.  The "logic" of this thinking should be obvious. 

I'd love for him to truly surprise everyone and be a component OF/DH, but until that is proven, the most realistic expectation is his ceiling being a fourth OF limited by an inability to play CF.

You could bundle him with someone. But, right now, I like him as a possible outfielder. But this is his do-or-die season, before being passed by others. He ahs a slim chance of staying with the Twins, depending on what happens to Kepler eventually, and if Buxton can actually play the outfield. The Twins will have no problem filling a 4th outfielder position, and even have to make decisions on names like Gordon, too...especially with Castro playing well last season, and the minors still full of good "reserve" guys.

wouldn’t most teams prefer kepler in a trade deal as opposed to Larnach?   I don’t see much trade value for him. 

He has an option remaining. The clock isn’t approaching midnight until that option is exhausted.

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

one would think that substantial thought, data analysis, and resources would be devoted to this issue/opportunity.

its funny to think that in this day and age that people here the front office operates like a forum.  Of course they put thought, data analysis and resources into this.

100% against trading Larnach. He needs consistent work.

I wonder how many people for trading Larnach away before he’s been given a full look also were wanting to trade away the farm for Danny Jensen or another C last offseason when it was obvious Ryan Jeffers just needed a little more time and consistency. And look what happened. I fully believe Larnach is capable of the same if given a solid chance.

Tom Kelly always preached 1500 AB’s. Maybe that’s too much but I think it’s more accurate than 700 inconsistently spread over 3 years.

Consistent at-bats could be the issue. Some players thrive in spot starts and pinch hitting. Some need consistent playing time and know that when they show up their name is on the lineup card. If anyone from our depth in the outfield should be traded I propose Kepler. The Yankees would take a pull hitting lefty to torch their short porch any day. 

So explain to me how the middle chunk of this essay where he returned to St Paul, discovered how to hit breaking stuff and regained his power, and finally displayed this in his limited opportunities in Sept, logically leads to Larnach becoming a disposable fourth outfielder.  That's more than a little inconsistent.

You keep him and let him build back some value. You wait to see if Wallner stays strong or goes all Miranda in his sophomore year. You see if Kepler is still here for April 1. Unless a team comes calling for Larnach with flowers and chocolates there's no reason for low value dumping like this; he's got an option and there's room on the roster to wait. 

EDIT:  Trade Kepler now when everyone remembers his last two months rather than the thirty that preceded them.

I think the Twins have damaged Larnachs career as well as others.  This constant trying a young player thene goes 0 for 10 he is sent to AAA.  Remember last year when they first sent him down he was leading tge team in RBIs with like 36 at the time.  Some reward for doing a good job.  Same could  with Ober and others.  I think the Twins need to show more patience with their prospects once at the major league level.  Why in the world would any young players want to play in the Twins system?  I am for trading Larnach.  But for the chance to play regularly on a major league team.  He's earned it.

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The underlying gist of this article is that Larnach has not fulfilled his promise and doesn’t look to be part of the Twins’ plans for the future.

Assuming this is correct (and I for one am not there yet), the bigger questions are 1) how/why did this happen and 2) how do we get better at improving the results of our solid minor league prospects transitioning into the bigs?

Larnach is not the first. There are many others.  Among the current crop, Miranda and, to a lesser extent, Kiriloff are similar examples.  How do we make sure Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Martin don’t fall into this category? Why did Steer, CES and Rooker, three of our “less heralded” prospects we traded instead of Miranda and Larnach, have such a successful transition? Sure we’ve had successes over the years, but a high success rate in the transition has to be the hallmark of any small to mid market team hoping to compete.

With the batch of young talent transitioning in this year and over the following two seasons, one would think that substantial thought, data analysis, and resources would be devoted to this issue/opportunity.

Miranda and Kirilloff have been bitten by injury. Miranda had a very solid rookie season and this year instead of taking the next step his hurt his shoulder and needed season-ending surgery after not being able to get back through rest and rehab. Kirilloff has performed well when healthy, and struggled when trying to play through injury. Steer & CES (especially CES) were well-regarded prospects that were moved in an attempt to improve pitching. Steer struggled mightily in his first taste of MLB and played very well last season (though him already moving down to 1B is not ideal for his long-term value); CES looks like the hitter we thought he was, but has the problem of not really having a defensive home. Rooker flunked out not only with the Twins, but also the Padres and the Royals, it wasn't until he joined the staggeringly awful A's that he performed well...and even then there's a real question whether he'd replicate that on a semi-competitive team.

the only thing that's held Lewis back was injury; he's now locked in at 3B. Wallner has done great in moving to MLB. Julien got rookie of the year votes. not entirely sure what the Twins have done wrong there, other than maybe not giving Wallner more opportunity sooner?

Once Larnach started figuring things out in AAA again, there wasn't much opportunity in MLB. Why would you give him ABs over Kepler and Wallner, who were both playing very well? Would I had rather had him than Gallo? Sure, but it still wouldn't have freed up many ABs, especially unless Larnach learned to play 1B in a hurry.

I'm fine with moving on from Larnach if we need to, but if he still has an option left I wouldn't send him packing without a good offer, and after last season who knows if we get one? I think the more likely one to get moved might be Gordon from the LH OFs. Gordon doesn't have an option left and without an injury doesn't have a roster spot, unless he's become a heck of a lot better CF than I remember.

The good news is we have many ways to build a trade package for a starting pitcher.  We have players on the MLB team, young players, and good prospects at all levels of the minors.  Hopefully we can find an agreeable combo to get a deal done.  As for the bench we have a desirable opportunity for back up CF to get lots of playing time on a contender so we should be able to get one.  I think we should hang on to Larnarch unless he is part of a package for a starting pitcher.  This should be an easy offseason unless the Twins decide to get cute and trade either Polanco or Kepler creating more holes/ less depth….. I’m just sitting back and watching this unfold.

58 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I think the Twins have damaged Larnachs career as well as others.  This constant trying a young player thene goes 0 for 10 he is sent to AAA.  Remember last year when they first sent him down he was leading tge team in RBIs with like 36 at the time.  Some reward for doing a good job.  Same could  with Ober and others.  I think the Twins need to show more patience with their prospects once at the major league level.  Why in the world would any young players want to play in the Twins system?  I am for trading Larnach.  But for the chance to play regularly on a major league team.  He's earned it.

IT is a TEAM sport, not a single player on the team sport.

Front Office does what they think is good for the team, whether we like it or not.

What none of us knows is what the organization thinks about him. I mean, did he figure something out at AAA to indicate his finish to the season is for real? If so, whatever he's figured out gives more value to him within the organization now, and going forward, than he had the bulk of 2023.

Why would anybody want him? He's a former top prospect, LH bat with power and a good arm in the OF. He's struggled some, to be sure. But he's also flashed, often before becoming injured, (twice but each different), or sick, which happened last year, IIRC.

There's virtually nothing on the FA market to match him, so why not a young-ish, inexpensive, former 1st rounder and top prospect that might be ready to bloom with regular playing time?

There is no logjam of corner OF at the moment. The Twins might want to hold on to Larnach for depth, and a belief that maybe the last half of 2023 offered real encouragement going forward. But he could also be a potential steal as part of a package for a team looking for LH power.

Not close to midnight yet. Don't think the sun has even set.

Might a spot open for Larnach if Kepler needs to cover center field? Who would be ahead of him in that case? I don't think we're going to sign a Michael A. Taylor type this year.

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Where is this "surplus" of corner outfielders? With all the surplus on this roster that's talked about on almost every thread on TD it's crazy that they only won 87 games last year, and we shouldn't have any problem replacing Gray through trade with all these high value trade guys we have that aren't needed anymore.

If you have a ton of average players that doesn't mean you'll win more than the average number of games. It just means when one guy gets hurt there isn't a dropoff in performance.

When he has been healthy he has shown promise & this year he started strong, played in more games & led the Twins in RBIs, I don't care about the decrease of HRs if he's hitting, But with the longer exposure they found a crack in his armour. The Twins should have known his weakness & corrected it by now, at 27. His trade value because of years of availibility is comparable to Kepler. If he's part of a reasonable trade I'd do it. 

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If you have a ton of average players that doesn't mean you'll win more than the average number of games. It just means when one guy gets hurt there isn't a dropoff in performance.

That is, assuming, the replacement is of equal talent  both fielding and with a bat as the one he replaces.

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I think the Twins have damaged Larnachs career as well as others.  This constant trying a young player thene goes 0 for 10 he is sent to AAA.  Remember last year when they first sent him down he was leading tge team in RBIs with like 36 at the time.  Some reward for doing a good job.  Same could  with Ober and others.  I think the Twins need to show more patience with their prospects once at the major league level.  Why in the world would any young players want to play in the Twins system?  I am for trading Larnach.  But for the chance to play regularly on a major league team.  He's earned it.

https://sabr.org/journal/article/willie-mays-first-season/ I keep thinking about Willie Mays and how Durocher and the Giants stuck with him as he struggled.  That is a rare thing and it  might be what Larnach needed. 

5 hours ago, Rosterman said:

 this is his do-or-die season, before being passed by others. 

I've also have said the same , and if it is his  last chance  I think it would be encouraging for him to go to driveline  this winter  and get someone to help him with the offspeed pitches  and also identifying the pitches would help ,

This is definitely his last chance with the twins in 2024 and I would like to see him capitalize  on it ...

Remember he was leading the Twins  in rbi's and has some pop  in his bat that the front office likes ...

he needs help and it's up to him ...