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  • Could Yunior Severino Be a Cheaper, More Productive Version of Joey Gallo?


    Cody Schoenmann

    With the Twins planning to cut their payroll for 2024, the team won't be able to spend $11 million on a player of Gallo's skillset. Could 24-year-old power-hitting Yunior Severino be a cheaper and more productive replacement?

    Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

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    Headlined by rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner, the Minnesota Twins just underwent one of the most exponential youth movements in franchise history. These young players, mixed with stars like Carlos Correa and Pablo López, have seemingly ushered the Twins into a new era of baseball, one free of the burden that was the ever-looming Sisyphean 18-game playoff losing streak.

    Unfortunately, the sense of renewal and optimism that has reigned over Twins Territory since defeating the Toronto Blue Jays on October 4th has spiraled into yet another Pohlad-induced angst, as it was shared that the team is expected to undergo payroll cuts heading into the 2024 season. 

    Expensive veteran contributors like Sonny Gray ($13.3 million), Joey Gallo ($11 million), Michael A. Taylor ($4.6 million), and Donovan Solano ($2.1 million) are likely to depart from the Twins this offseason. Instead of replacing them with similarly priced veterans through trade or the free agent market, the front office, hindered by payroll constraints, may opt for inexpensive internal options. 

    While we are in the early stages of the offseason and have yet to learn what the front office's plans are to replace these veteran players' production for the upcoming 2024 season, a handful of young internal candidates may be called upon. Although replacing the production of more key contributors like Gray, Taylor, and Solano will be difficult, a likely candidate to replace Gallo's production has already emerged in 24-year-old power-hitting utility player Yunior Severino

    Like Gallo, it is vital to emphasize power when discussing Severino, as he finished the 2023 season tied with Astros prospect Shay Whitcomb for the most home runs in Minor League Baseball with 35. Severino accomplished this feat by hitting 24 home runs with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge and 11 home runs with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints after being promoted on August 3rd.

    Beyond his immense power, Severino possesses a versatile defensive profile similar to the one Gallo provided in 2023. During his time between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, Severino played 184 2/3 innings at second base, 556 1/3 at third base, 125 1/3 at first base, and was the designated hitter for 20 games.

    To put this into perspective, Gallo played 315 innings in left field, 46 1/3 innings in centerfield, 53 innings in right field, and 322 innings at first base, and was the designated hitter for one game during the 2023 regular season. Severino isn't a viable defensive Major League outfielder, so the Twins will need to look elsewhere to cover the 414 1/3 outfield innings Gallo provided. Regardless, Severino could easily find himself replacing the 322 innings Gallo provided at first, if not more, while serving as at least an emergency option at third. 

    In theory, Severino, a switch-hitter, could increase his value and perception of flexibility more than Gallo, who hits exclusively left-handed, ever could. Gallo often found himself part of left-handed heavy platoon employments whenever the Twins would face a right-handed starting pitcher. Typically, switch-hitters like Severino are platoon-proof, but earning that distinction depends on whether the respective player can adequately hit pitchers of both handedness. Here are Severino's splits in Double-A and Triple-A during the 2023 season:

    Double-A Wichita Wind Surge

    • Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .290/.355/.551 (.906) - 76 PA, 20 hits, three doubles, five home runs, five walks, 27 strikeouts
    • Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .287/.368/.562 (.930) - 299 PA, 76 hits, 12 doubles, 19 home runs, 31 walks, 90 strikeouts

    Triple-A St. Paul Saints

    • Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .286/.400/.429 (.829) - 25 PA, six hits, zero doubles, one home run, four walks, eight strikeouts
    • Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .223/.305/.527 (.832) - 128 PA, 25 hits, two doubles, ten home runs, 11 walks, 48 strikeouts

    Despite a fairly significant drop-off in performance when facing right-handed pitching between Double and Triple-A, Severino still handled them exceptionally well, hitting 29 of his 35 home runs while generating a .881 OPS in 427 plate appearances against them. 

    Severino manufactured incredible offensive numbers at both levels, which is why the Twins elected to add him to their 40-man roster to protect him from MiLB free agency and the Rule 5 Draft. If Severino hadn't been added to the 40-man roster, it is near-guarantee that a team would have selected him in the Rule 5 Draft as he is an MLB-caliber player. 

    With Severino on the Twins' 40-man roster for the upcoming season, he will inevitably make his Major League debut in 2024. And with payroll cuts playing a prominent role in the Twins' decision-making process this season, it isn't far-fetched to expect Severino to be a key contributor for the Twins in 2024.

    Whether Severino can hit for power more efficiently than the current version of Gallo, who seemingly became an automatic strikeout toward the end of his tenure with the Twins, is yet to be determined. Regardless, it is reasonable to expect Severino to be an improvement.

    The Twins front office places a premium on power when analyzing which players to add and subtract from the 26-man roster, which is Severino's greatest strength. Severino did possess a roughly 33.9% K% to 9.7% BB% between Double and Triple-A, which is concerning but, at the same time, feasible. As long as Severino keeps his K% around 33.9% and does not skyrocket to the mid-40s, where Gallo lived most of the 2023 season, it is reasonable to think Severino could provide an upgrade for an AL Central Title-pursuing team. 

    Assuming Severino's strikeout rate hovers around the lower 30s while effectively hitting for power from both sides of the plate, there is a significant chance he can put more than 0.7 fWAR, which Gallo generated during the 2023 season. Severino, being five years younger and roughly $10 million cheaper than Gallo, presents a unique opportunity for the Twins to immediately improve in a hyperspecific area of roster construction while saving an immense amount of money, which is the Pohlad family and, in turn, front office's main goal this offseason.

    With the Twins set to make relatively drastic payroll cuts this upcoming offseason, they will need to rely more on their young internal options than in past seasons. Though this is a daunting proposition, it could also be a silver lining, and the Twins could end up unearthing a viable power-hitting corner infielder who could provide more value than the $11 million risk they took in Gallo in 2023.

    Should the Twins put their faith in Severino to replace Gallo's production in 2024? Is giving him the opportunity too risky? Comment below.

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    Gallo set a pretty low bar last year, but if Severino barely clears that I don't think he makes a ton of sense.  I think the Twins are looking for more production from the position.  We just don't know what Severino can do against MLB pitching. The K rate isn't ideal nor the walk rate.  It would take a deeper dive into the numbers to get a sense of how reliable he might be which is why I think they go with a veteran to start the season.

    I like the premise of the article though.  I think in time if he can drop the K rate some he is a perfect 1st baseman.  He has the power for the position and being a switch hitter it gives him an advantage no matter who is on the mound. He also makes for a nice pinch hitting option and DH.  He has hit well the last two years but the jump to MLB ball is a big one.  If they want to save some money and a roster spot I could see them giving it a try to start the season, but depending on rookies is a risky business. HIs numbers stumbled some even at AAA. I doubt he is someone they depend on to start the season.

     

     

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    Though Severino played 1b, 2b and 3b this year, is he actually good at any of them? Given that he had as many starts at DH as at 1b or 2b, I'm suspecting defense isn't strong. 

    If that's the case, he's not matching Gallo's skill set. A major component of Gallo's being added to the team was his perceived strength at four defensive positions. They added Severino to the 40-man for a reason, but it wasn't to replace Gallo. 

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    Expensive veteran contributors like Sonny Gray ($13.3 million), Joey Gallo ($11 million), Michael A. Taylor ($4.6 million), and Donovan Solano ($2.1 million) are likely to depart from the Twins this offseason.

    It's laughable to call Solano or Taylor "expensive" - they were paid like backups. Gray cost the most but he also provided 3x that value. Gallo was only "expensive" relative to his production.

    The Twins are going to be fortunate that most of their young depth is already in AAA and ready to contribute if needed. Emmanuel Rodriguez is the only player on the 40 man roster who is very unlikely to get called up in 2024. There are also several young players with AAA experience not on the 40 man roster who could help.

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    Comping these two feels like a pretty big stretch; sure they both have power, but...

    One is at the end of his career, has always been miss-or-big-hit at the plate, walks a lot, owns multiple Gold Gloves, and played a position where the Twins ended up shallow at the end due to injuries (1B, which was almost the only reason to keep him around at the end).

    The other is on the cusp of his MLB career, has pop and patience, hits well from both sides (though not at MLB yet), may have defensive flexibility, but nothing like defensive excellence so far (particularly in OF where Gallo won his awards).

    Payroll constraints or not, Gallo isn't coming back, and he was already replaced in-season by Matt Wallner to the point he was a late/post season after-thought. Yunior will almost certainly help build a stronger Twins 2024 roster; either directly through his play or through being a trade piece, but either way for his being a very different player than Gallo.

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    47 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Though Severino played 1b, 2b and 3b this year, is he actually good at any of them? Given that he had as many starts at DH as at 1b or 2b, I'm suspecting defense isn't strong. 

    If that's the case, he's not matching Gallo's skill set. A major component of Gallo's being added to the team was his perceived strength at four defensive positions. They added Severino to the 40-man for a reason, but it wasn't to replace Gallo. 

    I watched him several times at Wichita. He generally caught what was hit at him but not much more. I didn't see a ton of grievous mistakes but he doesn't really get to enough balls to make errors. Defensively he's a 1st baseman who could be decent over there.

    Playing him at 2B or 3B in the majors would be like throwing Farmer in centerfield. He'd catch a few and play the part but mostly just make sure the ball got back to the infield. Emergency option at best.

    That does limit his options with the big club but he'd be so far down the depth chart at 2nd or 3rd it does t matter, at least for this year. If the bat plays, he can find plenty of run at 1st and DH.

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    Gallo & Severino are the type of hitters this FO are enamored with. Gallo was a waste of money & time. The fact that they selected Severino before Martin & ERod to put on the 40 man, tells me that they value Severino and will give him every opportunity to make it to MLB. Do I agree with them? no.

    I love the fact that he's switch hitter & hopes he makes the MLB but I would keep Severino in AAA until he cleans up his SOs.

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    14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Gallo & Severino are the type of hitters this FO are enamored with. Gallo was a waste of money & time. The fact that they selected Severino before Martin & ERod to put on the 40 man, tells me that they value Severino and will give him every opportunity to make it to MLB. Do I agree with them? no.

    The timing was entirely because Severino could have elected minor league free agency and Martin/ERod could not. It had nothing at all to do with the front offices' opinion of their future value.

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    4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    The timing was entirely because Severino could have elected minor league free agency and Martin/ERod could not. It had nothing at all to do with the front offices' opinion of their future value.

    Thank you for enlightening me

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    Sure...why not? Even Sano was more productive than Gallo. Yep, Gallo was pretty good defensively, but that's where it ends. By all accounts, the FO is looking to save money. That puts Severino in the equation. 

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    Don’t profile similarly defensively at all. Gallo is generally good defensively…and plays the outfield. Severino is generally NOT good and plays the infield. Severino wouldn’t have a sliver of the defensive value Gallo provided.

    Meanwhile, we can HOPE that Severino could be more valuable offensively than Gallo.

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    So he strikes out 34% of the time in the minors. How many players strike out less in the big leagues?  Maybe Wallner but most players strikeout rates go up. He will match Gallos strikeout rate so there is that. 

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    Yeah, actually, not a fair comparison. Gallo was a 3B who didn't stay there long. Severino is an INF who really doesn't appear to have OF in his future. He's still only 24yo, so I don't know that I'd just give up on him being able to work hard and still play some 2B/3B going forward.

    His bat might be comparable to Gallo, but position wise, he's more of a younger version of Solano, who played those spots pretty well when younger, was workman like the past few seasons.

    How about we just concentrate on Severino as his own self? From what i read and hear, he's marginal/OK at 2B/3B, probably a best fit at 1B. Again, only 24yo, why can't he continue to work and be at least adequate to cover those spots? Let's hope for the best.

    As a hitter, he needs to curb his K's and work on BB. He's walked enough so far that his OB% is solid. He's also HIT enough to show that he doesn't completely lack bat to ball skills, unlike a somewhat similar profile to the powerful Sabato, who just can't HIT a lick. Gallo had power and some OB ability, but seldom HIT as a pro.

    The idea of power and OB ability with high K numbers does not mean a bad player. In fact, it can mean a dynamic player! IF, said player can also HIT, and NOT be a .179-.200 AVG hitter. There's just not enough value there to be anything of great value on any sort of consistent basis.

    Reverse example, SOMETHING clicked with Kepler in 2023 to begin just hitting the damn ball hard! And suddenly he was producing like he hadn't in years. Severino hits the ball HARD.  That's why he's maintained a solid AVG so far. IF he can lower the K rate some, raise his BB % just a little, and keep hitting the ball HARD, good things might just happen.

    Again he's been improving each year in the system, and is only 24yo at AAA now. He doesn't have to be Gallo, or anyone else. He just has to be himself. 

    He gets to begin 2024 at AAA, the highest level now reached before the Show. If he can just "settle in" and work and adapt and just nudge his K and BB numbers a little in the right direction while maintaining his hard contact ability, the Twins might have a former HIGH international signed prospect who has run the gambit to being right on the precipice of something rather unique: a switch hitter who can HIT, and hit with power from both sides of the plate.

    I have ZERO illusions he's ready to begin 2024 at the ML level. But I think he's got a chance to make an appearance and get himself ready for 2025. There's hope and like here. I just want him to be himself, and forget comparisons.

     

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    I've been fascinated by the Severino story over the last couple years cause his stats were on the rise, but he was nowhere to be found on prospect lists despite being highly rated as a teenager and still being under 25yrs old.  He's always reminded me of Edwin Encarnacion. Similar body type, defensive profile, whip-like swing that generates a lot of power from his hips, kinda labored gait around the bases on his home run trot. One can hope Severino could turn into as productive a player as Encarnacion was. Big difference I suppose is EE had good plate discipline.

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    First, if we are hoping he is as good as Gallo, well lets move on already.  Second, from what I have heard Severino is not a good defender at any position, where Gallo was always considered a top defender, even with the weak offense profile. I believe Severino will fall more into the Sano kind of profile, weak defender, has power but will strike out a ton. 

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    10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    Yeah, actually, not a fair comparison. Gallo was a 3B who didn't stay there long. Severino is an INF who really doesn't appear to have OF in his future. He's still only 24yo, so I don't know that I'd just give up on him being able to work hard and still play some 2B/3B going forward.

    His bat might be comparable to Gallo, but position wise, he's more of a younger version of Solano, who played those spots pretty well when younger, was workman like the past few seasons.

    How about we just concentrate on Severino as his own self? From what i read and hear, he's marginal/OK at 2B/3B, probably a best fit at 1B. Again, only 24yo, why can't he continue to work and be at least adequate to cover those spots? Let's hope for the best.

    As a hitter, he needs to curb his K's and work on BB. He's walked enough so far that his OB% is solid. He's also HIT enough to show that he doesn't completely lack bat to ball skills, unlike a somewhat similar profile to the powerful Sabato, who just can't HIT a lick. Gallo had power and some OB ability, but seldom HIT as a pro.

    The idea of power and OB ability with high K numbers does not mean a bad player. In fact, it can mean a dynamic player! IF, said player can also HIT, and NOT be a .179-.200 AVG hitter. There's just not enough value there to be anything of great value on any sort of consistent basis.

    Reverse example, SOMETHING clicked with Kepler in 2023 to begin just hitting the damn ball hard! And suddenly he was producing like he hadn't in years. Severino hits the ball HARD.  That's why he's maintained a solid AVG so far. IF he can lower the K rate some, raise his BB % just a little, and keep hitting the ball HARD, good things might just happen.

    Again he's been improving each year in the system, and is only 24yo at AAA now. He doesn't have to be Gallo, or anyone else. He just has to be himself. 

    He gets to begin 2024 at AAA, the highest level now reached before the Show. If he can just "settle in" and work and adapt and just nudge his K and BB numbers a little in the right direction while maintaining his hard contact ability, the Twins might have a former HIGH international signed prospect who has run the gambit to being right on the precipice of something rather unique: a switch hitter who can HIT, and hit with power from both sides of the plate.

    I have ZERO illusions he's ready to begin 2024 at the ML level. But I think he's got a chance to make an appearance and get himself ready for 2025. There's hope and like here. I just want him to be himself, and forget comparisons.

     

    I've been reading your comments for several years and I've come to the opinion that you don't understand the purpose of the comment section.  Your replies lack (mostly 😇) misspelled words, bad grammar, rambling and incoherent sentences, and the requisite bashing of the author.  All you do is offer your opinions in a logical, well thought out manner.  You better be careful or you might be blocked from contributing.

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    9 hours ago, JYTwinsFan said:

    I've been fascinated by the Severino story over the last couple years cause his stats were on the rise, but he was nowhere to be found on prospect lists despite being highly rated as a teenager and still being under 25yrs old.  He's always reminded me of Edwin Encarnacion. Similar body type, defensive profile, whip-like swing that generates a lot of power from his hips, kinda labored gait around the bases on his home run trot. One can hope Severino could turn into as productive a player as Encarnacion was. Big difference I suppose is EE had good plate discipline.

    I have had a similar comp, in regards to power and defense, but Encarnacion K rate was only 18% for a career, with walk rate of 11% Severino K rate in minors so far is 28%, even higher last couple of years, and walk rate of 10%.  I expect Severino  to increase his K rate above 33% closer to 40% if he does not make changes soon. 

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    Severino could be a cheaper Gallo in terms of hitting. People here just raved about his hitting this year. Severino thought would not be Gallo’s glove. No Severino will not be a cheaper Gallo

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    21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    It's laughable to call Solano or Taylor "expensive" - they were paid like backups. Gray cost the most but he also provided 3x that value. Gallo was only "expensive" relative to his production.

    The Twins are going to be fortunate that most of their young depth is already in AAA and ready to contribute if needed. Emmanuel Rodriguez is the only player on the 40 man roster who is very unlikely to get called up in 2024. There are also several young players with AAA experience not on the 40 man roster who could help.

    It is also laughable to call Sonny Gray expensive at 13  million for his production 

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    2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

    I've been reading your comments for several years and I've come to the opinion that you don't understand the purpose of the comment section.  Your replies lack (mostly 😇) misspelled words, bad grammar, rambling and incoherent sentences, and the requisite bashing of the author.  All you do is offer your opinions in a logical, well thought out manner.  You better be careful or you might be blocked from contributing.

    This is genius!

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    4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

     All you do is offer your opinions in a logical, well thought out manner.  You better be careful or you might be blocked from contributing.

    Doc has consistently been one of the best on this website. 

    I always read what he hangs out there. 

    I typically need to clear my schedule in order to have enough time to read his posts but I do.   

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