Who Can the Twins Deal?

No pitchers on the list?

Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey are prime trade bait. One year of team control remaining.

If we aren't really rebuilding, we trade those who we can live w/o and is worth something.

We can live w/o Sano but we won't get anything for him. Kepler is hard to replace and is underrated.  I'd prefer Garver to stay but if a team which would offer a good deal on a premier pitcher I'd be willing. If Rogers and Duffy can be replaced and could be added to a trade, I'd say yes. But the one that makes the most sense is Arraez. He is easily replaced defensively and for a one dimensional player he's overrated.

I hope that the FO surprise me and inniate some needed tough trades, sign Buxton and avoid a devastating rebuilding.

I don't want to trade Garver. Catcher is a position of strength right now. But would it remain one if your catchers are Jeffers/Rortvedt/new acquisition? I'm not convinced that Jeffers could just replace Garver right now. 

I hate to say this, because Luis Arraez has been my favorite player these last three years, but it might make sense to trade him. 2B/3B is really a strength of this team. Between Polanco, Donaldson (who you probably can't trade), Miranda and Arraez you already have four players for two spots. And while there are always some injuries, we already saw that little logjam this season when the lack of regular playing time was probably one of the reasons why Miranda wasn't called up.

Speaking of injuries, let's talk about Arráez'. He has already missed a lot of time because of his knees. Even when he has been on the field, the injuries have caused some extended slumps we haven't seen from him before. A Luis Arraez who hits .330 is a special hitter. If he hits only .280 with no power and bad defense? Not so much. 

That doesn't mean the Twins should just dump him. But right now he is still only one season removed from hitting .320. If another team is willing to bet on his health and offers them a good return, they should maybe pull the trigger instead of banking on better health in the future. If you wait longer and it goes poorly, his value might plummet rather quickly. 

Ugh, I really hated writing this...

Trading Arraez or Polanco is at the top of my list.  I Have always believed in Polanco and would hate to see him go.  I would trade him if it's a really big haul.  If that kind of trade is not available, I would trade Arraez.

Really hate the idea of trading Garver.  So, same thought as Polanco.  It has to be a haul.  

Will the Universal DH give Sano reasonable trade value?  He does impact games.  I have never been a much a Sano supporter but I don't think they should move him for the sake of moving him.  He could bring value at the deadline.

Kepler is a sell low candidate too so why trade him now.

I would have Donaldson on this list.  We will likely be a better team with him  in 2022.  However, I think we are better in 2023 with Miranda in his 2nd year and the salary savings invest elsewhere.  Donaldson will be 37 yrs / 4 months at the start of the 2023 season.

Rodgers and/or Duffy should be available if the return is right but that opportunity will exist at the dead line too.

Pretty much any arb eligible or beyond player is trade bait. There are so many players that are corner outfielder/1b/DH that a couple should be traded..  This is likely as Kerrigan, Celestine or Contreras could fill in.. 

Getting more than a wild card bid in 2022 is a long shot, even with trade and free agent acquisitions, mostly because the starters that would put us in the World Series aren't available at a price we can pay. Hopefully the young pitchers develop enough to make 2023 more realistic.

That says to me:

- *don't* trade Arraez, he's just 24. If this had been his rookie season performance at age 24, we'd be moving pieces all over to find a place for him to play. He can be a huge part of the next group if this group doesn't perform. Start him at 3B as often as you can. Donaldson will need the rest anyway.

- Sano and Kepler are tradeable as underperformers, and have candidates for their position (Kiriloff, Larnach) waiting to prove themselves

- don't trade for rentals

Ted, good list but you left off Josh. He’s the number #1 person I’d move. 
 

I get that he actually had a pretty good year - particularly in the late 2nd half when the season was already lost.  He’s a good, actually very good, baseball player both at the plate and in the field if healthy (which has been fairly unreliable). He’s a veteran presence as well (but has that really translated in the dugout and the clubhouse though?). He very well may be worth his $20+MM. But not to us - not at this time.
 

Josh is a declining asset taking up valuable cash and real estate on a mid market team that has lost lots of money over the past couple of years and has a strong emerging player ready to take his spot.
 

Signing him was a great bet at the time. It made tremendous sense for a team willing to go all in. But that window has passed. Let me repeat that for all of us fans who think 2021 was just some sort of an aberration. That window has passed.  The Twins exiting 2021 are not in the same position as the Twins heading into 2019. 

Josh’s late season play will contribute to getting a better deal for him from a team looking for that key piece. Even more likely if the NL adopts the DH. If all the analytics guys on this site are correct, then there should be takers at full value for Josh’s WAR. 
 

Resigning Buxton, signing a SS, and adding pitching (targeting the BP and maybe Big Mike) are simply better uses of that cash at this point in time for the Twins. Give Miranda and Luis the 3B innings and turn over the veteran leadership to Buxton. 
 

BTW, I’d move Kepler as well……

6 hours ago, Brandon said:

No pitchers on the list?

The Twins need pitching. Anyone of value should be kept.

5 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Getting more than a wild card bid in 2022 is a long shot, even with trade and free agent acquisitions, mostly because the starters that would put us in the World Series aren't available at a price we can pay. Hopefully the young pitchers develop enough to make 2023 more realistic.

That says to me:

- *don't* trade Arraez, he's just 24. If this had been his rookie season performance at age 24, we'd be moving pieces all over to find a place for him to play. He can be a huge part of the next group if this group doesn't perform. Start him at 3B as often as you can. Donaldson will need the rest anyway.

- Sano and Kepler are tradeable as underperformers, and have candidates for their position (Kiriloff, Larnach) waiting to prove themselves

- don't trade for rentals

 

Larnach has shown he belongs in AAA, maybe for life; Arraez is a poor fielder and Twins need defense , not offense.

Trade away the defense and actually the offense, and it will be a long, long time before the Twins are more than an after though in baseball.

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Our surplus has the least value on the trade market.  Look at Cron - he outhits all those we list and yet has bounced around year after year.

Cron was essentially a league average hitter who provided no defensive value in '19. Why would the Twins commit to him at 1B beyond that year? Kepler, Arraez, and Kirilloff are all better than that.  

We want 'big hauls' for the regulars we might trade. I just don't think those things exist anymore. First and second and everywhere else...get Buxton signed. He is the centerpiece of the team. Lose him and you are drifting aimlessly in the AL Central again. He is more valuable to the Twins than what he would yield in a trade. Some may disagree, but you can't trade your star and really expect to get better. It could happen, but I don't like the odds. Twins need to get real serious with Buck. then anything they do after that is fine with me.

59 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

One of Sano/Kepler  has to go. Opens a spot for Kirilloff. 

 

I'd also deal Arraez if there is a market. Not sure he's worth as much as people think. 

Why can’t Kirillof be the regular left fielder?

Trade Polanco if someone offers up a solid starter, what like a borderline #2-3 which would be good enough to be our #1 until Meada returns whenever.

Then I throw Arraez, and Martin/ Miranda/Lewis at 2B.

It all depends on what the offers are, so I suppose the entire roster is on the table except maybe Ober and Ryan.

I want to extend Buxton, but he might be the obvious choice here, if they prefer Polanco with his contract to a huge extension for Buxton. Buxton I think draws the most value in a trade, then Polanco. I don't think anyone else draws a pitcher who could anchor the rotation.

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If we want to have value in trades it is Lewis and Martin that will garner value outside pitching prospects.  The DH, 1B types are everywhere and do not bring a big return. 

I'd really want to hear your rational for trading a former no. 1 pick and top 20 prospect in all of baseball, who missed an entire year with a torn ACL, right now .. I mean you'd be selling at the absolute lowest value. As for Martin, they just traded their "ace pitcher" for him 3 months ago., they clearing see him as apart of their future plans.

I'm not outwardly excited about trading anybody if I'm Falvine. The cost associated with everyone is very, very high, and my price tag for Buxton is just this side of certifiably crazy. But I'm definitely listening intently on just about everyone.

It's not overly likely that Polanco has another season like this last one, and I don't want to have to pay for past performance if I'm negotiating his next deal. But, at the same time, a guy who plays solid 2B and swats 25 homers while batting in the .280-.300 range is still awfully nice to have next year. If someone blows me away, I'm going to think really hard about it.

I'm not quite sure about Arraez after this past season. He could be that guy who comes into Spring Training healthy and serves as a .330+ hitting leadoff guy next year, but he could also be a good hitter with mediocre defense everywhere. I want to believe, so my price tag for him is higher than that of Polanco.

I like the swagger that Donaldson brings to the team, and I want my young guys to cut their teeth in the majors around a guy like him. I'm paying a lot for his services, but on the other hand he showed unexpectedly good durability and was a big part of the offense this year. I'd especially love for Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis to get plenty of exposure to him, but how do I manage that while still getting the kids into the lineup on a regular basis? In the end, I'm probably most likely to trade him this winter but not without several gut checks first.

Buxton is going to have to personally insult my mother to her face for me to even think about backing away from contract negotiations. Yeah he's hurt a lot, but on the other hand when he's healthy he's arguably the best player in the league. My asking price gets my rival GMs to hang up on me several times this winter.

I really don't want to move on from Kepler either, especially since his defense gives me a lot of roster flexibility for those times when Buxton is hurt. He's a guy that, if he begins sitting back on pitches more often, he might start beating the shift and put up video game numbers for a good long time. I don't want to be the FO that traded him away right before he does that. On the other hand, I think Trevor Larnach is an all-star right fielder before his contract is up, and I want to show ownership that I was right to pick him. My price for Kepler is almost as high as it is for Buxton.

I like Garver. He's among the better hitting players in the league when healthy, and he's elite at the plate compared to the rest of the league's catchers. But, on the other hand, he's also on the wrong side of thirty and his situational hitting was pretty poor last year. And while I really like Jeffers, too, I'm not sure I want to risk the offensive drop-off that will happen when he eventually takes over for Garver just yet. I know that I'm likely to get a ridiculous haul for Garver if I were to move him this winter, so I probably do mention his name more often than the rest but also set his price tag just this side of what I'm asking for Buxton and Kepler.

2 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Why can’t Kirillof be the regular left fielder?

Because it's damned near impossible to play LF and 1B at the same time.