What Should the Twins Do With Trevor Larnach This Offseason?

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Do you want your DH batting 7th if you aim to be competitive?  Do you want Larnach patrolling the outfield when you have Buxton, ERod, Roden and perhaps others available?

That's the dilemma I see with Larnach.  

I should have put the “can” in “can be competitive” in italics to emphasize that it’s a viable option.

I think you have the right questions in terms of asking whether it’s the best option. 

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

Trade him before the non-tender deadline. If that doesn't work, let him go.

 

In play, run(s)

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Can't make these decisions based on what someone did in the past; have to make decisions based on what they are likely to do next year. 

Larnach had his best year last year, but after a great first half, with lower K's, higher walks, and higher BABIP than he ever had before, he was below replacement in the second half. Generally, the second half is a better predictor of next year. Also, power indicators over the full year, like exit velocity and hard hit rate, were by far the worst of his career, even though they trended up during his poor second half. His barrel rate was also close to his career low, which was set in 2025.

An argument not to pay so much attention to his second half is that he was distracted by the trade that was called-off. Maybe, although seems less likely than he just came back to earth. Either way, if this theory is true, it could almost as true that if he is on the Twins next year he will again be distracted by wondering where he's going to be traded. 

If they can get something now for him, great, but he'll be 30 next year with declining power indicators and a bad second half, so the trade market for Trevor Larnach might be a lot less robust over the winter than it was after his great first half.

I have no idea what his trade value will be... he has one year of service and a final year of arb salary to be paid. This is going to lower his value. I have no prediction to offer what his production will be in 2027 either because baseball is just a little to bouncy to try and predict such things. But... I'll say it again. The guy can hit the baseball. A down August is a down August. I'm trying not to read too much into it. 

There might be numbers that suggest that the 2nd half is a better indicator of the following year. I'm not aware of them and I won't argue their existence but I can't imagine that the numbers would be powerful because there are too many examples that are the opposite.  

We all watched Max Kepler hit rather poorly in 2022. Come out of the 2023 gates with a .207/.276/.412 pre all star break and then explode into a .306/.377/.549 after the all star break. Right back to suffering in 2024. His hot streak didn't indicate much for the following year. I've just seen too many slumps and too many hot streaks appear and disappear to be a little distrustful of predictive nuggets that tumble out of them.  

We probably don't want to be buying stock on a lot of players who dropped at the end of 2026 if it is something to follow.  Sal Stewart, Yandy Diaz, Jose Ramirez, Murakami, Matt Olson, Albies, Schwarber and Jordan Walker really took a tumble as the season came to a close. There are more. 

I get it... some don't believe in him. 

I do... I think he's a hitter. But I also think it's time to let him go.

If you are right and he has no trade value. He has no trade value.

But I'm not going to cut the man down. 

[tony&rodney]

Hard to believe that anyone doesn't like Trevor Larnach. He seems like a good guy. As far as baseball goes he had a decent year at the dish. As such there is a place for him on a MLB roster. The problem with Larnach playing for the Twins is that he is often out in the outfield, where he does his very best. Larnach is not adequate as an outfielder. He is a DH. 

Looking around MLB, I think Arizona might be interested. They need a LF, DH, and 1B. All teams need pitching. I'm asking for Jordan Lawlar from Arizona and offering Larnach, Roden, and Cole Sands. I would send Bailey Ober if Justin Martinez comes back with Lawlar. None of these players are crucial to either team and it may work. 

[Jacksson]

In some way shape or form, Larnach will be with a different organization in 2027.  There is no room for him on the Twins' roster.  The only possible fit is as a DH, but 50% of those at bats will go to the surgically recovering Buxton who may not play a defensive position until after the All Star Break, while the rest will go to position players who are getting a partial day off.  If Larnach is untradeable, he will have to be non-tendered.  Same for Wallner.

[TL]

The Twins have 5 guys who hit as well or better and play superior defense. The only question is whether you can trade him because he can’t be on the team next year given payroll constraints (even if it rises a decent amount). That $6.3MM is far far better used elsewhere. 

[Bodie]

Way too much for a backup OF who can't 1) play CF (or even RF) or 2) hit well enough to DH.

 

And, if he isn't a backup next year we have way bigger long-term problems.  He is a glove that profiles as a DH, and a bat that needs a premium glove to play every day for a nearly 8-figure one year deal.

[old nurse]

18 hours ago, rdehring said:

I am of the opinion that the Twins, or any team for that matter, should never let a player with value leave without receiving something in return.  Although my solution isn't easy, it should be doable.  That would be to trade him in November prior to the lockout.  If not possible, offer arbitration and work to trade him after the lockout.  Have always liked him, but the Twins must open the corner outfield spots for the young guys.

Houston established his value as a relief pitcher on an expiring contract having a down year. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Let him go. He can't field. They have four OF besides him already. 

I'm sure a huge number will come here saying keep him..... But those same people say keep everyone. Everyone on a team that hasn't won in two years. 

The major problem with WINS in ‘26 has zero to do with Larnach.

Lopez out all year - Abel out for 4.5 months - Festa out all year - Sands out 4.5 months - Banda out nearly 3 months - Ryan out 1.5 months……..Jeffers out 2.5 months…….& then there’s Buxton playing 85 games healthy …….any one of these has more to do with lack of success than Larnach’s periods of non-perfection.

I don’t disagree that some changes should be made to improve…….:bringing guys from the organization up is hardly a “given for success” ……4 years ago Trevor Larnach & Matt Wallner were “the for sure future”. There’s room for 4 guys that would be considered 1st year players ………4 of 13 is 31% of the position players….   that’s not a small number…(Culpepper - Jenkins - Rodriguez - Gonzalez …….. to me, Roden is doubtful)

Lee was a candidate to be sent down in May - Keaschall was a candidate to be sent down in May……… Clemens was rough through May……...Larnach was carrying much of the load until those guys got going in June…..he faltered on & off for stretches in the 2nd half ……. his FA market value for the overall output in ‘26 is $17.5M+ & he was paid $4.8M ……., thoughts are his salary may SKYROCKET to $6.3M in arbitration.

Worst case - sign him for $6.5M and have a controlled trade chip.

He should be the LH 2026 DH for 70-75% of the games with Keaschall & Buxton DHing from the right side.

My BIGGEST issue is with those here that state his being released helps financially ……… a guy with his slash line……..3rd best hitter on Team with Jeffers gone ………. (Buxton plays when he can play) Larnach getting a $1.5M raise, being a problem is laughable.

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The major problem with WINS in ‘26 has zero to do with Larnach.

Lopez out all year - Abel out for 4.5 months - Festa out all year - Sands out 4.5 months - Banda out nearly 3 months - Ryan out 1.5 months……..Jeffers out 2.5 months…….& then there’s Buxton playing 85 games healthy …….any one of these has more to do with lack of success than Larnach’s periods of non-perfection.

I don’t disagree that some changes should be made to improve…….:bringing guys from the organization up is hardly a “given for success” ……4 years ago Trevor Larnach & Matt Wallner were “the for sure future”. There’s room for 4 guys that would be considered 1st year players ………4 of 13 is 31% of the position players….   that’s not a small number…(Culpepper - Jenkins - Rodriguez - Gonzalez …….. to me, Roden is doubtful)

Lee was a candidate to be sent down in May - Keaschall was a candidate to be sent down in May……… Clemens was rough through May……...Larnach was carrying much of the load until those guys got going in June…..he faltered on & off for stretches in the 2nd half ……. his FA market value for the overall output in ‘26 is $17.5M+ & he was paid $4.8M ……., thoughts are his salary may SKYROCKET to $6.3M in arbitration.

Worst case - sign him for $6.5M and have a controlled trade chip.

He should be the LH 2026 DH for 70-75% of the games with Keaschall & Buxton DHing from the right side.

My BIGGEST issue is with those here that state his being released helps financially ……… a guy with his slash line……..3rd best hitter on Team with Jeffers gone ………. (Buxton plays when he can play) Larnach getting a $1.5M raise, being a problem is laughable.

Well said. Perfect reasoning. Logical. 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

Do you want your DH batting 7th if you aim to be competitive?  Do you want Larnach patrolling the outfield when you have Buxton, ERod, Roden and perhaps others available?

That's the dilemma I see with Larnach.  

He hit first or second 78 games in ‘26………he hardly needs to be slotted in the #7 spot. If he is, because the line-up is loooong, great!

His value, as related to his stats/WAR for ‘26, was $17.5M+ …….. everyone here (most) may be tired of him not dominating/being average in LF at BEST/not enough HR’s/mostly, his vanilla personality ………….the guy hit well, in a platoon role…….he hit well in ‘24, in a platoon role! …..he hit RH pitching well in ‘25.

He’s due a $1.5M raise in arbitration. To me, it’s not logical to not sign him……..if guys younger than him tare it up & force their way on to the roster, he’s a very valued trade chip from another Club’s point of view at that point.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

He hit first or second 78 games in ‘26………he hardly needs to be slotted in the #7 spot. If he is, because the line-up is loooong, great!

His value, as related to his stats/WAR for ‘26, was $17.5M+ …….. everyone here (most) may be tired of him not dominating/being average in LF at BEST/not enough HR’s/mostly, his vanilla personality ………….the guy hit well, in a platoon role…….he hit well in ‘24, in a platoon role! …..he hit RH pitching well in ‘25.

He’s due a $1.5M raise in arbitration. To me, it’s not logical to not sign him……..if guys younger than him tare it up & force their way on to the roster, he’s a very valued trade chip from another Club’s point of view at that point.

How does one force their way on the roster if they aren't playing because Larnach is? Which two OF are you benching, Jenkins, Keaschell or ERod? 

Roden outhit Larnach and can play defense. 

I don't care about the money, it's about ceiling and defense and the future. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s due a $1.5M raise in arbitration. To me, it’s not logical to not sign him……..if guys younger than him tare it up & force their way on to the roster, he’s a very valued trade chip from another Club’s point of view at that point.

He doesn't have much trade value. We have to get past that. Did he out-play his contract in 2026? Sure, but he still wasn't a starting-quality player because all he brings to the table is hitting RHP. He's not a good defender. He doesn't add on the bases. He can't hit LHP. he's a good hitter against RHP (not a great one).

Here's the other thing: he's not really getting any better. Larnach's production in 2026 was basically his production in 2024 (a few more games, a little better offense, even worse defense). What are the odds he's going to do better in 2027 at 30? He's probably not getting any faster, and there's nothing to suggest he's going to hit LHP any better. If we needed a LH platoon bat to play OF/DH, then his salary would be ok (not great, but ok) for 2027, but LH corner OF/DH is where we are stocked the most.

Younger guys did tear it up in the minors last season and Larnach still played and played and played. They couldn't find a deal for him at the deadline; maybe it's because the Twins kept demanding too much...or maybe there was never much of a market for him. Which is more likely?

Roden put up a 117 OPS+ in limited time and is 3 years younger, a better fielder, and a better runner (and can play 1B). Jenkins is a far superior fielder & runner with a much higher upside. Rodriguez is a much much better fielder and has a much higher upside. All are substantially cheaper. All need playing time. None will get enough run if Larnach is clogging the roster.

It's ok to let a guy go with minimal or no compensation. It's not ideal, but you have to care more about roster composition than losing value. Larnach doesn't fit any longer, and if we keep chasing value with him we ensure we won't get better.

[Jeff K]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How does one force their way on the roster if they aren't playing because Larnach is? Which two OF are you benching, Jenkins, Keaschell or ERod? 

Roden outhit Larnach and can play defense. 

I don't care about the money, it's about ceiling and defense and the future. 

Your last line is reason enough to ensure that Larnach is off the roster.  If they can trade him pre-arbitration; great.  If not, don't offer arbitration.  Cut him loose!

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s due a $1.5M raise in arbitration. To me, it’s not logical to not sign him……..if guys younger than him tare it up & force their way on to the roster, he’s a very valued trade chip from another Club’s point of view at that point.

With more control available at the deadline, his value was shown to be a rental reliever having a down year. And that deal got killed because the owner thought it was too much to pay. There is absolutely no reason to believe he'd be a "very valued trade chip from another club's point of view." None at all.

Platoon DHs with a 109 OPS+ on their good side are not valuable. It's why Josh Bell is never traded for anything good at deadlines and why truly competing teams never sign him in the offseason. And he's not a platoon DH. He's just a 106 OPS+ one. And that isn't valuable. No team cares about what fangraphs kicks out for a player's "value." No team would pay Trevor Larnach 17+ million. None. Zero. He isn't actually worth that. He's maybe barely worth 6. If he was on the open market he'd be looking at a $5-6 million deal as a platoon DH on a non-competitive team.

None of that means Trevor didn't have a solid year or he's terrible or anything like that. But that's the truth of his value to other MLB teams. Eddie Rosario could actually field and hit roughly the same as Trevor did in his last season in MN before being non-tendered with 1 year of arbitration left. He got a 1 year, $8 million deal from Cleveland. Larnach wouldn't get that because he can't field. Trevor Larnach is not some hot commodity to MLB teams. He just isn't. He's a platoon DH who isn't good enough to hit in the heart of a playoff lineup. He's good for the Twins. Which is the problem. The Twins aren't good enough. It's the same problem they had with Kepler. He was valued around here because he always hit at the top of the Twins lineup somewhere. The problem is, the lineup wasn't good, and other teams didn't want him because the Twins valued him as a top of the order guy when that's not what he was on a good team.

[twinfan]

I have no problem with them signing Larnach for 6 million next year.

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Eddie Rosario could actually field and hit roughly the same as Trevor did in his last season in MN before being non-tendered with 1 year of arbitration left. He got a 1 year, $8 million deal from Cleveland. Larnach wouldn't get that because he can't field. Trevor Larnach is not some hot commodity to MLB teams. He just isn't.

The Rosario comp is pretty accurate: Cleveland signed him to that FA deal (which was about what he would have gotten in arbitration, probably a bit less) and ended up trading him in a pure salary dump to save about $2M. They literally got nothing for him, since they immediately cut Sandoval. Eddie got hot for Atl, who then signed him to a contract they immediately regretted and he vastly under-performed, he got one more make-good contract with the Nats who cut him, and he hasn't been able to stick with anyone since and is out of MLB.

And Larnach has never had a season anywhere near as good as Rosario's 2018. Reality is, there's always guys like this available for $4-8M on the FA market, and it's a crapshoot as to which one has one more good year in them.

I think Larnach will hit RHP just fine for 2-3 more seasons, but won't give you anything else. If you need that bench bat and can get it for $2M, great! But that not what we're talking about.'

[Hugh M]

I would sign him for $6.3 million and bring him back.  I like his bat better than Emmanuel Rodriquez.  Then I would look to trade probably one of those two if you can get a good return.  But I would not give them away. I suspect others would value Rodriquez more than Larnach, so you could get more for him.  But if you don't like any deal offered, keep both of them.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hard to believe that anyone doesn't like Trevor Larnach. He seems like a good guy. As far as baseball goes he had a decent year at the dish. As such there is a place for him on a MLB roster. The problem with Larnach playing for the Twins is that he is often out in the outfield, where he does his very best. Larnach is not adequate as an outfielder. He is a DH. 

Looking around MLB, I think Arizona might be interested. They need a LF, DH, and 1B. All teams need pitching. I'm asking for Jordan Lawlar from Arizona and offering Larnach, Roden, and Cole Sands. I would send Bailey Ober if Justin Martinez comes back with Lawlar. None of these players are crucial to either team and it may work. 

Love both those deals and am willing to add in Martin or a 20-30 prospect if necessary to make it work.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think we're all of one mind - Larnach is a good guy coming off of a pretty good year who does not fit on the 2027 Twins roster because he hits LH and can't field or run very well. Really the only issue is do you let him go for nothing if you can't trade him. My only difference is that I'm a bit more of a risk taker than some. I say try to trade him before the tender deadline of November 20. If you can't, tender him and then keep trying to trade him. Push only really comes to shove at the end of ST whenever that is in 2027.  By then, EmRod may break his hand again, Buxton may get hurt, we may trade for someone else or get someone back in a trade that changes the calculus, etc.  I'm willing to bet that we don't get "stuck" with a $6M surplus LH OF at the end of ST that we can't find a way to use. We will find an opportunity to get something for him so let's not set an arbitrary cutoff date to trade or let him walk. Play it out, show some cajones, and we'll get a deal or we may wind up needing him as an injury replacement for the assumed roster.  

[jmlease1]

50 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think we're all of one mind - Larnach is a good guy coming off of a pretty good year who does not fit on the 2027 Twins roster because he hits LH and can't field or run very well. Really the only issue is do you let him go for nothing if you can't trade him. My only difference is that I'm a bit more of a risk taker than some. I say try to trade him f the tender deadline of November 20. If you can't, tender him and then keep trying to trade him. Push only really comes to shove at the end of ST whenever that is in 2027.  By then, EmRod may break his hand again, Buxton may get hurt, we may trade for someone else or get someone back in a trade that changes the calculus, etc.  I'm willing to bet that we don't get "stuck" with a $6M surplus LH OF at the end of ST that we can't find a way to use. We will find an opportunity to get something for him so let's not set an arbitrary cutoff date to trade or let him walk. Play it out, show some cajones, and we'll get a deal or we may wind up needing him as an injury replacement for the assumed roster.  

I think that's fair, I just don't think the roster spot is worth the risk, and think that we will get "stuck" with him if we tender him, and that Shelton might start him in LF as long as he's on the roster, no matter that he's better suited to DH or RF. I think his actual value on the open market is $5M or less and everyone else will lock up their preferred targets that way rather than give both extra money and some other compensation (even if it's very minor) to take Larnach off our hands.

[LA Vikes Fan]

17 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think that's fair, I just don't think the roster spot is worth the risk, and think that we will get "stuck" with him if we tender him, and that Shelton might start him in LF as long as he's on the roster, no matter that he's better suited to DH or RF. I think his actual value on the open market is $5M or less and everyone else will lock up their preferred targets that way rather than give both extra money and some other compensation (even if it's very minor) to take Larnach off our hands.

My view is you don't give Shelton that option. These guys are gone when the final roster decision is made if you got somebody better. If that means going so far as to have to release them, that's what you do. The upside is that you'll be able to either get value for them in a trade, even if it's not the value you were hoping for, or you will have them on the roster because the guys you thought were better turn out to not be better or at least not ready to be given a chance to be better now. The downside is you wind up paying a guy's arbitration salary less the major league minimum because someone will pick him up for the minimum if they're signed and released. That's a risk we should be willing to take to get the potential upside. In my mind, that's what successful organizations do, they don't pinch pennies because they're afraid of risk.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Non Tender or sign and trade.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think we're all of one mind - Larnach is a good guy coming off of a pretty good year who does not fit on the 2027 Twins roster because he hits LH and can't field or run very well. Really the only issue is do you let him go for nothing if you can't trade him. My only difference is that I'm a bit more of a risk taker than some. I say try to trade him before the tender deadline of November 20. If you can't, tender him and then keep trying to trade him. Push only really comes to shove at the end of ST whenever that is in 2027.  By then, EmRod may break his hand again, Buxton may get hurt, we may trade for someone else or get someone back in a trade that changes the calculus, etc.  I'm willing to bet that we don't get "stuck" with a $6M surplus LH OF at the end of ST that we can't find a way to use. We will find an opportunity to get something for him so let's not set an arbitrary cutoff date to trade or let him walk. Play it out, show some cajones, and we'll get a deal or we may wind up needing him as an injury replacement for the assumed roster.  

The Twins need to make some moves in early November. Waiting can only make things more difficult. 

Both Larnach and Lewis fit to an extent as utility/DH/PH types, which is largely the role of the 12th and 13th guys. Are Lewis and Larnach willing to embrace that placement. One never knows if those guys get 300+ plate appearances and the Twins should use all of their position players. How excited would those two be to fill spots at the end of the position players?

When it comes to trades, the key is to identify potentially available players who would fill needs and then make aggressive offers. Thinking positively, the front office should have some specific ideas. All of us can throw out whatever and we don't have a clue if we are overpaying or underpaying. My idea/offer to Arizona of Larnach, Roden, and Sands for Lawlar is based on wanting a RH bat with speed who can play in the outfield and even if necessary get a few games in the infield. I like Roden, Larnach, and Sands but we already have those players in abundance. It is just an idea. There are other options. Zoll and clan need to make something happen in November.

[TheLeviathan]

If you can find a deal for Larnach it will be with a team who has a similar situation with a player of their own and you swap depressed/limited assets.  Maybe for a catcher, a 1B, or a reliever.  If you can't find that...you let him go.

Larnach was pretty bad most of the second half and settled into a guy you really would prefer hitting in the bottom third of your order AND who can't hit lefties AND who can't run AND who can't field AND who is mostly an OBP guy with no power.

There's just no reason to clog your outfield with him.

[TL]

2 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

My view is you don't give Shelton that option. These guys are gone when the final roster decision is made if you got somebody better. If that means going so far as to have to release them, that's what you do. The upside is that you'll be able to either get value for them in a trade, even if it's not the value you were hoping for, or you will have them on the roster because the guys you thought were better turn out to not be better or at least not ready to be given a chance to be better now. The downside is you wind up paying a guy's arbitration salary less the major league minimum because someone will pick him up for the minimum if they're signed and released. That's a risk we should be willing to take to get the potential upside. In my mind, that's what successful organizations do, they don't pinch pennies because they're afraid of risk.

It’s a risk to take that approach but I’m not completely opposed. The risk is that they end up releasing him and instead of eating that $6mm they have a payroll that is $6mm less than it should be, which is a valuable reliever. 

[SE23]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hard to believe that anyone doesn't like Trevor Larnach. He seems like a good guy. As far as baseball goes he had a decent year at the dish. As such there is a place for him on a MLB roster. The problem with Larnach playing for the Twins is that he is often out in the outfield, where he does his very best. Larnach is not adequate as an outfielder. He is a DH. 

Looking around MLB, I think Arizona might be interested. They need a LF, DH, and 1B. All teams need pitching. I'm asking for Jordan Lawlar from Arizona and offering Larnach, Roden, and Cole Sands. I would send Bailey Ober if Justin Martinez comes back with Lawlar. None of these players are crucial to either team and it may work. 

I like this trade too, although Lawlar's injury history is Buxton-esque...

 

[SE23]

9 minutes ago, SE23 said:

I like this trade too, although Lawlar's injury history is Buxton-esque...

 

But if we get him and Justin Martinez and we only give up Larnach, Roden, Sands and Ober, I'm all in!

[SE23]

Maybe I'd prefer to keep Ober and offer Lewis instead?

[Mike Sixel]

Seriously. You aren't getting lawler for a bunch of castoffs. You aren't getting him at all anyway, because AZ is cutting budget and he's cheap, but you certainly aren't getting him for three mediocre players.