What Should the Twins Do With Trevor Larnach This Offseason?

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Do you want your DH batting 7th if you aim to be competitive?  Do you want Larnach patrolling the outfield when you have Buxton, ERod, Roden and perhaps others available?

That's the dilemma I see with Larnach.  

I should have put the “can” in “can be competitive” in italics to emphasize that it’s a viable option.

I think you have the right questions in terms of asking whether it’s the best option. 

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

Trade him before the non-tender deadline. If that doesn't work, let him go.

 

In play, run(s)

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Can't make these decisions based on what someone did in the past; have to make decisions based on what they are likely to do next year. 

Larnach had his best year last year, but after a great first half, with lower K's, higher walks, and higher BABIP than he ever had before, he was below replacement in the second half. Generally, the second half is a better predictor of next year. Also, power indicators over the full year, like exit velocity and hard hit rate, were by far the worst of his career, even though they trended up during his poor second half. His barrel rate was also close to his career low, which was set in 2025.

An argument not to pay so much attention to his second half is that he was distracted by the trade that was called-off. Maybe, although seems less likely than he just came back to earth. Either way, if this theory is true, it could almost as true that if he is on the Twins next year he will again be distracted by wondering where he's going to be traded. 

If they can get something now for him, great, but he'll be 30 next year with declining power indicators and a bad second half, so the trade market for Trevor Larnach might be a lot less robust over the winter than it was after his great first half.

I have no idea what his trade value will be... he has one year of service and a final year of arb salary to be paid. This is going to lower his value. I have no prediction to offer what his production will be in 2027 either because baseball is just a little to bouncy to try and predict such things. But... I'll say it again. The guy can hit the baseball. A down August is a down August. I'm trying not to read too much into it. 

There might be numbers that suggest that the 2nd half is a better indicator of the following year. I'm not aware of them and I won't argue their existence but I can't imagine that the numbers would be powerful because there are too many examples that are the opposite.  

We all watched Max Kepler hit rather poorly in 2022. Come out of the 2023 gates with a .207/.276/.412 pre all star break and then explode into a .306/.377/.549 after the all star break. Right back to suffering in 2024. His hot streak didn't indicate much for the following year. I've just seen too many slumps and too many hot streaks appear and disappear to be a little distrustful of predictive nuggets that tumble out of them.  

We probably don't want to be buying stock on a lot of players who dropped at the end of 2026 if it is something to follow.  Sal Stewart, Yandy Diaz, Jose Ramirez, Murakami, Matt Olson, Albies, Schwarber and Jordan Walker really took a tumble as the season came to a close. There are more. 

I get it... some don't believe in him. 

I do... I think he's a hitter. But I also think it's time to let him go.

If you are right and he has no trade value. He has no trade value.

But I'm not going to cut the man down.