The Root Cause of This Year's Collapse Points to the Challenge Ahead for Twins

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, offensive_loons_fan said:

I think this is taking the "first half/second half" too literally. Maybe there wasn't a collapse on a strict 81/81 split but they were inarguably doo doo down the stretch.

I agree, The Twins were 10-17 or around that in August.

[Brandon]

I think the off-season moves will depend on the outcome of the next CBA.  If it's done quickly with the requirement of a higher floor payroll then expect hood moves.  If it drags into the season with minimal changes I expect we will go with the same roster.  This is definitely going to be an interesting off-season.  Our biggest need is 1B where we have 10 internal options but nothing too exciting and we have an army now of floor relievers and could use a few with a higher ceiling.  So the pen is halfway there and again they could stand pat there too.  We do have extra starting pitching to trade (Ober and maybe Mathews). Obviously not trade both....

Internal 1B candidates include: 

Sabato

Wallner

Mendez

Gonzalez

Roden

Tait at some point

Clemens

Keaschall

Lewis

I feel like I'm forgetting someone.....

 

[ewen21]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

There was no collapse.  This team ended up right where they were expected to be.  

 

 

Not sure why people are framing this season as a "collapse" either, but it keeps getting run out there.  What this team did have was a hot run through part of June and July.  The 2001 team had a "collapse" but honestly, I can't even say that was a collapse since they outperformed expectations and young players developed at the same time.  I don't see that kind of thing going on here.

[rdehring]

Many of you talk about Buxton, mostly his health.  His injuries lead to holes in the outfield with too many games played by AAAA players.  I believe the Twins have solved this concern without trading Buxton, who like many of us is one of my favorites.  That outfield was on the field the past few weeks, Rodriguez, Jenkins and Keaschall.

Keaschall is a grinder who works his butt off.  For that reason, I believe he will be better in right field in 2027.  When Buxton is healthy, rotate each thru the DH position a day or two each week.  When Buxton, or Rodriguez, or Jenkins is injured, problem solved.

I don't know what this means for Martin, who I like.  Also don't know what this means for Roden, who I believe belongs in the big leagues.  Maybe one is traded?  I recently saw that Roden played some first base in college, maybe that's an option.

[ewen21]

If there was a collapse I will cite the back to back games July 19th and July 20th.  Zebby was an absolute horror show in Chicago.  He gave up 9 hits, 3 walks, 8 earned runs in three innings of work.  Then Ryan followed him up in Cleveland by serving out SIX gopher balls.   This was where the heart got ripped out if you asked me.  It was a point in the season where they could have proved something and they did.  They proved they did not have what it takes to win in the playoffs and most of us already knew that anyway.

 

To say this was a "collapse" is weird to me

 

 

[djvang]

Any plans that include Buxton as anything more than a part-time player are delusional.

[djvang]

24 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Keaschall is a grinder who works his butt off.  For that reason, I believe he will be better in right field in 2027. 

He can work on improving his fundamentals but unless he can do something about his weak arm I'll continue to say he should be in LF. I know, broken record.

[wesnewy]

to me there want really a "collapse" because the expectations were so low coming into the season. I really wanted to believe in this team in late June into the ASB, but they were really just a product of a horrible American League. Not saying this team wasn't fun, more like they were never in a position to really collapse.

[The Great Hambino]

Any feeling of collapse probably comes from the fact that they were buyers at the deadline and finished behind two of the teams that sold to them.  Even the Mets, a giant dumpster filled with several smaller dumpster fires, finished with only three fewer wins after selling to the Twins

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, ewen21 said:

I am not meaning to drag you into this, but I will double down and say that he is a big problem for this organization as far as I am concerned.  A REAL big one and I do not have a real answer for it because he has that no trade clause.  

Buxton has been exalted as "the face of the franchise" and has been called "one of the best in the game" and all other such nonsense.  All I have to say to that is 862 hits in 12 seasons.  Good morning, good afternoon, good night.  The Twins and this fanbase really needs to pour cold water on this need to exalt a particular player in the future.  It is not healthy for any team to put a player on a lofty perch where they are beyond reproach.  This doesn't make for a good team culture.

 

That being said, if Lopez and Ryan are to be relied upon to lift us up then we have learned nothing with regard to assessing pitching.  I am more concerned with Lopez's personal wellbeing at this point let alone what level he will pitch at in 2027.  He had his second TJ and missed an entire season.  What can we realistically expect from ANYONE in that position?   Someone please tell me something 

 

And Ryan was a terrible disappointment.  The fact is, this guy has proven to us that he is unable to pitch a full season of quality baseball.  The wheels end up falling off the wagon for whatever reason.  I do not even care about the WHY at this point.  There is no WHY.  He doesn't doesn't seem built for the long haul.  Maybe we need to move him for some younger talent to a team that is win now and has a better plan for this guy.

The Twins have long put Buxton up on a pedestal as the unheralded leader of the franchise.  The truth is he simply doesn't play enough games each season to warrant that designation.  One only has to look at his stats and put aside the emotions.  He's played in approximately 57% of the regular season games over the course of 12 years (this does account for his 2015 rookie year and the Covid shortened 2020 season of 60 games). 

Is he a good player when he's healthy? Absolutely.  Is he a perennial all-star? Not with the all the time he misses.  Should the Twins continue to market him as the cornerstone of the franchise despite him being 32 years old, hurt all the time, and aging rapidly?  At this point no.  It's time for new blood and thankfully ERod and Jenkins are waiting at the doorstep.  It's really too bad he won't drop his no trade clause.  Atlanta would have loved to have had him and he might have gotten a world series chip out of it.  With as much money as these players make, the ultimate achievement is a world series win and mvp trophies.  He has neither.  Perhaps he's just content and there's nothing wrong with that, but the Buxton, "being the face of the franchise" ship sailed long ago no matter how much he's glorified as such on this site.       

Falvey, Zoll, and Pohlad made a critical mistake this season.  They should have moved Jeffers when they had the chance.  Perhaps the offers were not great that they did receive at the deadline, but they should have unloaded him before it was the 9th hour.  The same can be said of Ryan.  They were fielding offers for him early in the season and last season if I remember correctly.  He's under contract for 2027, but they should have traded him already as we know they aren't going to resign him or Jeffers.  The longer they wait the more time they waste.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If it was easy to do what Tampa and Cleveland do, more teams would. That's no excuse, but it's an explanation.....

Totally agree that it's not easy to manage assets in the way Tampa / Cleveland and Milwaukee have found their success.  IF the Twins tried and failed, that would be one thing.  The Twins never tried.  They went down a misguided path of insisting they must compete this year.   They refused to invest in the future.  This is not new.  I am pissed because they have never been as well-positioned to rebuild quickly with the chance of a very good team on the back-side of said rebuild. 

A lot of that positioning still exists in the form of young pitching plus Keaschall / Jenkins / Culpepper / Rodriguez and Lee.  However, they could have added 2 or 3 impact players that could have taken this team to .  real contender status.  This is not hind-sight.  Many of us said so at the end of last season and the entire off-season.   The need a new PBO and they need to let him make the baseball decisions. 

[AceBee]

4 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

One thing that is missing from our lineup is a killer instinct on clutch hitting ( pressure is not there specialty ) , another is not hitting to all fields … 

if our hitters would hit to all fields they would get more seeing eye hits as defense wouldn’t know exactly where to position themselves …

Buxton when healthy and producing is as close to a super star as the twins have had , Correa and Donaldson were good but more prima donnas …

we definitely need a better hitting lineup and bullpen help  …

it was a better season in 2026 , exciting games that they fought through , it was a little different style of baseball with Shelton managing …

 

Agreed💯- clutch pitching too 

[rdehring]

1 hour ago, djvang said:

He can work on improving his fundamentals but unless he can do something about his weak arm I'll continue to say he should be in LF. I know, broken record.

Don't disagree, but an easy solution as EmRod can certainly play right.

[AceBee]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Surely lacking some organizational plan along with reasonable health from anticipated contributors.

Tampa & Milwaukee & Cleveland are fabulous examples of what very shrewd FO/organization people can get done with less $$ resources. The KEY is they have discipline, a consistent philosophy, and a PLAN to operate within certain budget limits/goals.

Minnesota spent $125M in ‘21 - $141M in ‘22 - $158M in ‘23 - $127M in ‘24 - $137M in ‘25 - $115M in ‘26 (after $$ adds from deadline trades)………the last 3 seasons have seen significant drops in spending w/o having this as a plan. They were averaging 5-7% payroll increase for a few years through ‘22…. ‘23 was the high & Team was in the playoffs. ‘25 & ‘26 spending were “planned on” in November/December shooting from the hip as compared to Tampa or Milwaukee or Cleveland.

Of this past season’s spending $22M were paid to Lopez w/o any contribution on the mound……….$10M were paid against Correa’s salary in Houston. That’s $83M paid out for the players on the field through most of ‘26. No FO is going to succeed with this type of ownership behavior!

Yes. Consistent plan for the future that starts at the draft level. While the MLB draft is very different than some of the other sports in terms of immediate contributions and projections, that doesn't mean that you can't plan for the future on how the pieces would fit together. Let's hope that this year's positive flashes from the rookies sustain in the long term and don't just remain a flash in the pan.

I also feel we missed out on the trade deadline by holding onto players who don't necessarily fit in the future plan. 

[David Maro]

Just read that they parted ways with Pete Maki which in my mind is a good thing. Hopefully this means that more changes are coming. I was looking at the 40 man and can think of 15 names to move on from there as well. If they really want to compete they can't keep bringing the same players back year after year. 

TP needs to decide if Zoll can do the job or move on. And Shelton should be going over the 40 man and deciding who should stay and who should go. I just read earlier today the Vikings traded JJ McCarthy for a 5th round pick in 27. Sometimes you need to bite the bullet and move on. Players like Wallner, Lewis and Ryan should be on the list to move. Shaking up this roster is the right thing to do for 27 and beyond.

 

[Coach]

Emma and Rodon are still question marks

1 hour ago, AceBee said:

Agreed💯- clutch pitching too 

Lee and Bell were clutch, despite their batting averages, but they always came up huge.  Ya gotta give them props.

[Coach]

8 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I would love to see the Twins find a way to bring in a difference making first baseman.

Until this year, we had two gold glovers at first base, it could have been three if Clemens had stayed there.  Get rid of the old school stereotypes.  Geesh!

[Coach]

8 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I would love to see the Twins find a way to bring in a difference making first baseman.

Kody Clemens. Period.  Somebody show me stats of other available   first basemen to contradict his fielding ability, and hitting ablity,

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, David Maro said:

Just read that they parted ways with Pete Maki which in my mind is a good thing. Hopefully this means that more changes are coming.

Okay, yes. One of the five worst staffs in MLB, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise. But I can't help but wonder if the bigger issue isn't defense. They're still a fairly slow, clumsy team, even with their younger core.

Are they making changes just to make changes, or have they identified top coaching/executive talent? Who's making these decisions?

[jmlease1]

6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

One thing that is missing from our lineup is a killer instinct on clutch hitting ( pressure is not there specialty ) , another is not hitting to all fields … 

Except of course that they were leading the league in hitting with runners in scoring position for a big chunk of the season and well above what was expected of them. Then it regressed back to the mean and proved to be unsustainable. (still finished 6th overall in OPS with RISP and 3rd in BA with RISP) Are we ever going to get past this idea that "clutch" hitting is actually a definable and repeatable skill or is the fiction going to be with us as long as baseball exists?

 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Coach said:

Until this year, we had two gold glovers at first base, it could have been three if Clemens had stayed there.  Get rid of the old school stereotypes.  Geesh!

You really think Clemens was a GG 1B with all the trouble he had with scoops? He did fine there and his range was nice, including going into foul territory, but Gold Glove? Nope.

[Mike Sixel]

31 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Except of course that they were leading the league in hitting with runners in scoring position for a big chunk of the season and well above what was expected of them. Then it regressed back to the mean and proved to be unsustainable. (still finished 6th overall in OPS with RISP and 3rd in BA with RISP) Are we ever going to get past this idea that "clutch" hitting is actually a definable and repeatable skill or is the fiction going to be with us as long as baseball exists?

 

100% the last sentence. 

Also, the idea they weren't clutch just ignores what happened this year completely, as you point out. 

[jkcarew]

Calling this a collapse completely ignores the fundamental facts…

1) the team didn’t figure to seriously contend to begin with

2) they were 32-40 after the first 72 games…with Buxton and Ryan hitting on all cylinders.

They weren’t close, and they aren’t close. Again. They had a 5 week stretch of winning at a high rate, surrounded by 21 weeks of losing more often than winning. This would be completely expected for a mediocre-ish team. For plans to be influenced more by the 5 weeks than the 21 is insane. Any and all changes should be on the table.

[Cris E]

6 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

A trade for a guy like Miami's Xavier Edwards could allow for a speed based team with Edwards, Keaschall, Culpepper, and Buxton in the top 4 spots (or top 3 plus #9) to create run scoring opportunities.

If you didn't like this team running down in 2026 then Edwards might not be your guy. He came out of the gate fast but slowed every month though the entire season. His OPS by month went .883 .870 .668 .617 .585 and .556 in Sept.  In his career his first/second half splits read .766/.690, so it's not a fluke. He'd cost a ton to acquire and you'll find him standing in front of Houston in two years.  I'd save the prospects to go get the big 1B bat and trust inhouse guys like Roden to line up behind Keaschall at the top of the lineup. (I honestly think Roden's got a chance to have a better year than one of Jenkins or ERod.)

[D.C Twins]

Hate to break it to everyone but there will be no long-term expensive contracts handed out while the Pew-lads are still desperate to sell. 

[Coach]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

You really think Clemens was a GG 1B with all the trouble he had with scoops? He did fine there and his range was nice, including going into foul territory, but Gold Glove? Nope.

Check out his stats at 1B, he was 5 DRS at the end of May, leading all of MLB!

[HarmonK03]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

And Shelton should be going over the 40 man and deciding who should stay and who should go.

Shelton doesn't decide on who is on the 40 man roster, that is Zoll's job.  Maybe Shelton has input but who knows.  Shelton's job is to play the players given him.

[Cris E]

When someone says "Check out his stats" about a 1B they are not going to be referring to a partial season DRS number.  Clemens might have lead the Al in triples (I know, bizarre, right?) but this is not a lineup that can give away 1B hitting.  Put Clemons 27HR at 2B and go get a real thumper.

[ewen21]

5 hours ago, djvang said:

Any plans that include Buxton as anything more than a part-time player are delusional.

This idea that we must have "Plan B" in place for the "face of the franchise" is absurd when you put those two things next to each other, but that is precisely what we hear simultaneously.  He's the "face of the franchise" and yet the next day we need a "Plan B" for him.  What kind of arrangement is that? 

 

 

[ewen21]

28 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Hate to break it to everyone but there will be no long-term expensive contracts handed out while the Pew-lads are still desperate to sell. 

Do those really even need to exist if we can draft and raise talent like some teams can?  Money isn't going to solve this problem.  You want Vladdy Jr or something?  I don't pine for huge long term contracts at all.