Zebby Matthews’s Future With Twins Needs to Be in the Bullpen

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews's outing on Wednesday in Detroit felt significant for all the wrong reasons. In just 2 1/3 innings, Matthews allowed two hits and four walks while giving up five earned runs. A couple of those runs scored after he was pulled, but when you exit the game with the bases loaded and only one out, that’s going to happen sometimes.

Regardless of how you want to distribute the blame for those runs, it was another rough outing for a pitcher who hasn’t looked like himself for much of the 2026 season—or, rather, who has looked just like himself, which is the problem. Matthews owns an ERA just below 5.00 on the season, while his whiff and strikeout numbers are down considerably from where they were a year ago. He's also giving up too much hard contact. There's no key, fundamental pitching skill in which he's performed well lately.

At some point, the Twins have to pivot. In Matthews’s case, that pivot might be a move to the bullpen—which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Plenty of successful pitchers throughout MLB history moved from the rotation to the bullpen and found another level. Even guys like Mariano Rivera and Dennis Eckersley began their major-league careers as starting pitchers, with Eckersley eventually winning a Cy Young Award as a reliever. I’m certainly not suggesting Matthews is going to become one of the greatest bullpen arms in baseball history, but I do think there’s a legitimate argument that his skillset could play much better in a one- or two-inning role.

For starters, there’s still a lot to like about Matthews from a pure stuff perspective. His fastball has averaged around 95 MPH, while his breaking balls have shown the ability to generate swings and misses. He also has a six-pitch arsenal, giving him plenty of different ways to attack hitters. That could be a particularly intriguing combination coming out of the bullpen. If Matthews only has to throw roughly 25 pitches in an outing instead of trying to stretch himself toward 100, there’s a pretty good chance that fastball could become a 97- or 98-MPH heater. He wouldn’t have to worry about conserving his arm for the fifth or sixth inning. He could just let it rip, and that could have a trickle-down effect on the rest of his arsenal. If hitters suddenly have to respect a harder fastball, Matthews’s breaking balls could become even more effective. He could streamline his arsenal, too. Maybe that means junking his four-seamer, which is string-straight, and leaning into his sinker. Maybe it means ditching his weak changeup.

We’ve already seen some evidence that Matthews’s stuff plays better when he’s able to throw with a little more freedom. He threw his four-seamer a mile per hour harder on average last season, and the underlying numbers across his arsenal were considerably more favorable. It’s impossible to know exactly why that velocity has dipped, but it’s hard not to wonder if his workload has played a role.

It wouldn’t necessarily be about fixing a broken pitcher. It could be about putting Matthews in a position where his best traits become more important and his biggest weaknesses become less damaging. A shorter outing would mean fewer times through the lineup, fewer pitches thrown and more opportunities to attack hitters with his best stuff. And frankly, the Twins may not have much choice when it comes to making changes to their rotation, anyway.

Right now, Minnesota has six starters on their roster who have a legitimate case to be part of the 2027 rotation. Along with Matthews, that group includes Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp and Dean Kremer. Unless the Twins make an offseason move, all six will be under contract for next season. Then there are Pablo López, Mick Abel and David Festa, all of whom are currently working their way back from injuries.

Obviously, all nine pitchers aren’t going to be healthy for the entire season. Injuries happen, roles change and circumstances can shift quickly over the course of an offseason. But even with that uncertainty, there will be some difficult decisions to make. Someone will have to move. Matthews could be one of those players, and moving him to the bullpen might actually be the best outcome for everyone involved.

As a starter, Matthews has been a disappointment. The Twins expected him to build on what he showed last season, and instead, he's taken a step backward in several important areas. But two things can be true at once. Matthews hasn’t been good enough as a starter this season, and moving him to the bullpen wouldn’t necessarily be a demotion. In fact, it could be the move that gets him back on track.

The Twins don’t need Matthews to prove that he can throw six effective innings every fifth day if his arsenal is better suited to dominating hitters for 20 or 25 pitches at a time. They need to figure out how to get the most out of the talent they already have. That might mean letting him stop pacing himself and start letting it rip. There’s still plenty of talent here. Maybe the only way to unlock it is to stop asking him to be a starter.

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[Ricky Vaughn]

Disagree, For one thing the drop in velocity could be from the blister on his foot that never gets a chance to heal properly. Plus he has consistently shown the ability to go 6-7 innings with no drop off in velocity. Its way to early to give up on him. He has starters body, unlike Festa who runs out of gas after 3-4 innings and looks like a strong wind will blow him off the mound. Festa is the candidate for the pen. 

[DJL44]

I would stash him in AAA for rotation depth. He still has options.

[HarmonK03]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would stash him in AAA for rotation depth. He still has options.

But who is in front of him, Kremer hasn't earned it or has Abel.  He has earned the right to be in the rotation at the beginning of spring training, if someone passes him then he can go to St. Paul.  At some point performance has to matter with this team and I don't want to see Kremer treated like Outman was last spring training.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

Matthews has 10 quality starts in 21 starts, Bradley has 12 in 28, Ryan 11 in 24 and Ober has six in 22 starts.

He pitched 31 innings in August walked 6 guys, struck out 24 and had an ERA of 2.90, In June never pitched in less than 6 innings, only once gave up more than 2 runs walked 8 in 33 innings with a 3.82 ERA. July wasn't great but take away his 8 runs in 3 innings and it wasn't terrible. May 3 of his 4 starts were quality starts (7,6,6 innings) and his 4th start wasn't good. He consistently gives the Twins 80 plus pitches. 

In his 21 starts only 4 times has he given up more than 4 runs. (one more time than Ober and has two more total innings in one less start than Ober)

So if disappointment means he has to be a top of the rotation starter, then yes I guess he is a disappointment. 

He has done enough this year to be given a spot in the rotation next year (who has done more than him to deserve that spot?)  and maybe he craps himself like Varland and ends up in the pen, maybe he ends up being a super cheap back of the rotation guy allowing them to spend elsewhere, or maybe he figures it out and becomes a decent mid rotation starter, or completely flames out like SWR.

Somehow people think the Twins rotation is so damn good that he needs to be in the pen or minors it is like you haven't even watched the team play this year, I remember when people on here were talking about how SWR saved a season doing less than what Zebby has done this year.  I am sure as heck not paying Ober or Kremer more than than they made last year to send him to the minors or bullpen.

With that said I have never been a huge Zebby fan and I think he likely ends up in the pen at some point, but that time isn't now, and if Prielipp or Rojas are pitching better than they should be given the chance. 

But moving him to the pen to make the rotation worse is somebody's idea of making this team better, I can't understand that. 

 

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

But who is in front of him, Kremer hasn't earned it or has Abel.  He has earned the right to be in the rotation at the beginning of spring training, if someone passes him then he can go to St. Paul.  At some point performance has to matter with this team and I don't want to see Kremer treated like Outman was last spring training.

Zebby has an ERA+ of 84. He hasn’t earned anything.

[HarmonK03]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Zebby has an ERA+ of 84. He hasn’t earned anything.

So you cherry pick one stat to make your case.  Actually the post before yours by MG laid out the case for why he starts out in the rotation.  Results matter, not some random stats that try to measure some fuzzy identifiable objective.

[PuckettPond]

If that happens it would mean the Twins did a lot of trading for starting pitchers this winter. Ryan & Lopez should be traded this winter or the trade deadline to improve the Twins future.

[rdehring]

Not a clue who will be their five starters on opening day, come next March, April, May or whenever it is.  Spring training's purpose is for players to get ready for the season and the team the opportunity to see who should be in the opening day rotation.

The only thing I know for certain is that it is nice that they have 9 potential starting arms, as more is better than less.  Will they all be with the Twins on opening day?  Nobody knows.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

48 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Not a clue who will be their five starters on opening day, come next March, April, May or whenever it is.  Spring training's purpose is for players to get ready for the season and the team the opportunity to see who should be in the opening day rotation.

The only thing I know for certain is that it is nice that they have 9 potential starting arms, as more is better than less.  Will they all be with the Twins on opening day?  Nobody knows.

If the Twins are playing Lopez 18 million, Ryan 10 or whatever he gets, Ober more than his 5.2 he made this year, and Kremer around 5 or whatever he gets, who do you think the Twins will give the starting pitchers chances to and how long of lease do they get? I am all for having as many arms as possible, but the top guys better be real good or real inexpensive 

[wesnewy]

I think we need to wait and see on how the rest of the season plays out and the uncertainty with the MLB CBA this winter. Zebby is a young pitcher with obvious talent saying he is destined for the bullpen is very close-minded to me. His only benefit of going to the bullpen right now is he would probably have less foot problems.

[bean5302]

How often does (or is it future expected) Zebby give the Twins a good chance to win the game when he's a starter?

For me, that's 5.0+ innings and an ERA of under 4.00.

Zebby did that 10 times in 21 starts. 

10 games with ERA under 4.00
10 games with SIERA under 4.00
9 games with xFIP under 4.00
8 games with xERA under 4.00
7 games with FIP under 4.00

Matthews was generally either very good or very bad. To me, he feels a heck of a lot like Louie Varland. Not quite good enough to be a starter.

This article talks about Matthews' "stuff" as good because of velo only. The truth is he doesn't have a single pitch which by movement and velo is better than MLB average. He's probably better off ditching the new sinker, the cutter, and the changeup, boosting his velo by 2mph and pitching out of the 'pen.

[weitz41]

I expect 1-3 of Ober, Kremer and Ryan to be traded this off season. Getting something simular to what they gave up for Kremer of maybe a little better prospect for Ober. Ryan, you'd have to get something better than a comp pick in value.

Lopez likely won't be on an MLB mound till May/June.

Abel and Festa would have to stay healthy and pitch better then Zebby for a move to the BP. Let's face it, Festa may be to the point of having to go there to TRY and stay healthy.

Prielipp you could make the same augment for him going to the BP

I see 5 starters April 1st with Lopez rehabbing in AAA, Abel in AAA and Festa Rehabbing in AAA. June/July ok maybe Zebby to the BP if someone outpitches him.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I would stash him in AAA for rotation depth. He still has options.

2nd’d on this

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

But who is in front of him, Kremer hasn't earned it or has Abel.  He has earned the right to be in the rotation at the beginning of spring training, if someone passes him then he can go to St. Paul.  At some point performance has to matter with this team and I don't want to see Kremer treated like Outman was last spring training.

FWIW Kremer, in an obviously smaller sample, has been better for the Twins than Zebby. He (Kremer) also has a more solid track record.

I'm far from a Dean Kremer stan, I'd be absolutely ok with the team upgrading the 4-5 spot in the rotation. I just think the "earned it," argument is weird. Apart from stringing together a few good starts in August, Zebby has been wildly inconsistent, and his overall numbers this season, and past seasons, just aren't very good. I don't think he's "earned," anything really. 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

How often does (or is it future expected) Zebby give the Twins a good chance to win the game when he's a starter?

For me, that's 5.0+ innings and an ERA of under 4.00.

Zebby did that 10 times in 21 starts. 

 

Based on your criteria 

Bradly 16/28 - 57%

Ryan 13/24 - 54% 

Matthews 10/21 - 48%

Ober 10/22 - 47

Prilipp 7/19 - 37%

Kremer 4/7 - 57%

Matthew only has one start that falls into your criteria that isn't considered a QS, Ryan and Bradley have multiple games that fit your criteria but fall short of a QS. 

I agree when Matthews hasn't been good, he has been mostly real bad. 

IMO that is enough to give him a spot in the starting rotation next year, unless of course they go out and get somebody better in a trade or FA, but that doesn't mean I also wouldn't be keeping him on a short lease.

 

 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

26 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

FWIW Kremer, in an obviously smaller sample, has been better for the Twins than Zebby. He (Kremer) also has a more solid track record.

I'm far from a Dean Kremer stan, I'd be absolutely ok with the team upgrading the 4-5 spot in the rotation. I just think the "earned it," argument is weird. Apart from stringing together a few good starts in August, Zebby has been wildly inconsistent, and his overall numbers this season, and past seasons, just aren't very good. I don't think he's "earned," anything really. 

Has he? He has one game with more than 5 1/3 innings out of 7 (really good 7 innings 1 run), two with 4 innings and at least 4 earned runs, Three decent starts with 5 innings (1,2,1 runs) and a 5 1/3 with 4. 

If you aren't willing to give Matthews a shot over him, when are you ever going to give a prospect a shot? 

[bean5302]

21 minutes ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

Based on your criteria 

Bradly 16/28 - 57%

Ryan 13/24 - 54% 

Matthews 10/21 - 48%

Ober 10/22 - 47

Prilipp 7/19 - 37%

Kremer 4/7 - 57%

Matthew only has one start that falls into your criteria that isn't considered a QS, Ryan and Bradley have multiple games that fit your criteria but fall short of a QS. 

I agree when Matthews hasn't been good, he has been mostly real bad. 

IMO that is enough to give him a spot in the starting rotation next year, unless of course they go out and get somebody better in a trade or FA, but that doesn't mean I also wouldn't be keeping him on a short lease.

 

 

Give a bad starter a spot in the rotation because there are other bad players in MLB. Got it.

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

Matthews has 10 quality starts in 21 starts, Bradley has 12 in 28, Ryan 11 in 24 and Ober has six in 22 starts.

He pitched 31 innings in August walked 6 guys, struck out 24 and had an ERA of 2.90, In June never pitched in less than 6 innings, only once gave up more than 2 runs walked 8 in 33 innings with a 3.82 ERA. July wasn't great but take away his 8 runs in 3 innings and it wasn't terrible. May 3 of his 4 starts were quality starts (7,6,6 innings) and his 4th start wasn't good. He consistently gives the Twins 80 plus pitches. 

In his 21 starts only 4 times has he given up more than 4 runs. (one more time than Ober and has two more total innings in one less start than Ober)

So if disappointment means he has to be a top of the rotation starter, then yes I guess he is a disappointment. 

He has done enough this year to be given a spot in the rotation next year (who has done more than him to deserve that spot?)  and maybe he craps himself like Varland and ends up in the pen, maybe he ends up being a super cheap back of the rotation guy allowing them to spend elsewhere, or maybe he figures it out and becomes a decent mid rotation starter, or completely flames out like SWR.

Somehow people think the Twins rotation is so damn good that he needs to be in the pen or minors it is like you haven't even watched the team play this year, I remember when people on here were talking about how SWR saved a season doing less than what Zebby has done this year.  I am sure as heck not paying Ober or Kremer more than than they made last year to send him to the minors or bullpen.

With that said I have never been a huge Zebby fan and I think he likely ends up in the pen at some point, but that time isn't now, and if Prielipp or Rojas are pitching better than they should be given the chance. 

But moving him to the pen to make the rotation worse is somebody's idea of making this team better, I can't understand that. 

 

I came to say this. It's like people don't actually look at results anymore, just go off vibes.